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View Full Version : Bourbon $$$ in the 2020



Buffalo Bill
01-14-2009, 09:01
Ok fellas, what's the price of Bourbon going to be in the year 2020; considering the cost of inflation, corn going to ethanol, and whatever the next engineered crisis that affects the bottom line cost. 2020 sounds so far away, but 11 years is right around the corner... the problem is economic complexity in this wonderfully new world order (chaos) taking us into the next decade. Get out your calculator and write your thoughts here and now - think hard - and lets talk economics!

Who's out there in-the-know?!?

Start with comparative pricing - low tier to high tier.

Low = Beam White label

High = Pappy 20

At the moment we have an $80 average spread between Beam White and Pappy 20.

What's it going to be in 2020?

Here we go... BB

Mamba
01-14-2009, 11:37
If you can accurately predict the price of ANYTHING 12 years out, you should be trading the financial markets and not wasting your time on a bourbon board.

The current deflationary environment should mostly halt the price rise for luxury whiskies. It might take a couple years, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices actually fall. As unemployment continues to rise and people continue to pare down to the essentials, I can see expensive whiskey being one of the first luxuries to go. This drop in demand would cause the distilleries and distributors to rethink their yearly price hikes.

I'd say the best guess for 2020 would be to look at todays prices and use that as your answer.

Buffalo Bill
01-14-2009, 15:53
And that's exactly it - not a waste of time - looking for input. I'm not a financial planner or wall street analyst, not my game. Although I am an analyst - Therefore, I put the word out for DISCUSSION on the bourbon board, and by the way - the arrogance here with YOU is off the charts - so get a life, asshole!

BB

jburlowski
01-14-2009, 18:06
PVW will be gone and sought by dusty hunters. We will be in another "sweet spot" for the boubon market as the ramp up of production from 2008 -09 hits the market without a commensurate growth in demand.

Mamba
01-14-2009, 19:20
I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

I love wasting time on this board, and many others.

Buffalo Bill
01-15-2009, 02:26
I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

I love wasting time on this board, and many others.

-------

Apology accepted, I did take that rather literal... not to get overly personal, but on New Years Eve I rec'd a phone call that I lost my brother, death in my family. It's absolutely staggering (not in the alcohol sense of the word) what happens to a person (me) after an event like that. Easy to get short... anyway, the board is a good distraction - good bunch, fun topics. I retract my comment. BB

spun_cookie
01-15-2009, 07:09
Bill
I am sorry for you loss. I cannot imagine that kind of close loss. Hope all is well...


Now to your question, it is an interesting one that I have thought about in passing... I think you can predict for this market based on what was seen in the other spirits that began to go premium like bourbon is trying to...

I think you can also see the beginning of the trend with FRs yearly plus line of their $75 bourbon, the BTACs running up to $70, the Van Winkles $65-250... HHs premiums, etc....

My guess you will always see some cheep bottom shelf, but they will get worse... $10 bottles will be the Grocery store brand...

So my guess is an average increase of ~33% across the market for a bottle the next 10-11 years.

ggilbertva
01-15-2009, 11:28
Speculation what it is, I would agree with Spun. I do some dusty hunting and the price difference over a 20 year spread is not that great; at least what I see here in my area. When I buy a dusty, many times the price tag is faded and obviously very dated. Just the other day I purchased a 1990 Rebel Yell for ~$16. I can buy the current release of Rebel Yell for $16. Benchmark Premium from 1985 around $12. Current release around $10, etc. etc. Maybe this trend will continue, maybe not. Spun mentioned that a BTAC bottle goes for $70. I think those prices are market driven by state. I can go into WV and buy the same bottle for $43, that's a 60% swing in price.

Buffalo Bill
01-16-2009, 05:19
There has been a significant jump in Pappy this month. $10-15 per. We're not talking cents anymore.

PAspirit1
01-16-2009, 12:46
In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.

Josh
01-16-2009, 13:12
In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.

A domestic turkey will cost you a Wild Turkey. Hmmm...wonder how much a pound of ground raccoon will cost?

OscarV
01-16-2009, 13:18
In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.

I have already sold all my gold krugerrands and bought cases and cases of bourbon.

PAspirit1
01-16-2009, 13:18
A domestic turkey will cost you a Wild Turkey. Hmmm...wonder how much a pound of ground raccoon will cost?

Maybe a 50ml of Jim Beam White.

ggilbertva
01-16-2009, 21:22
If I have to trade goods for bourbon....I don't like 2020 so much.

Stu
01-16-2009, 23:56
Think of what a bottle cost in 1998 and compare it today, raise it by the same percentage and you'll have 2020 cost. Unless we go into a depression, inflation will continue. The government ensures that - look at the bailouts going on now. Unless we had a government with enough guts to say "live within your means" things will continue at their present rate. Maybe even increase. Remember the "Fritz and Grits" years with double digit interest? Unfortunately the current ruling class doesn't have that much guts. I say "ruling class" because once elected you've got a job for life (Bagdo excluded). Further there are dynasties of political leaders in this country, the Kennedy and Bush clans being the most currently visible. "My Daddy was a Senator, so when I inherit the family farm that I've never seen, I'll inherit his Senate seat." My 2 cents worth, and its probably about 2/100 of a dollar overpriced.

MJL
01-18-2009, 13:51
All jokes aside let me lay out what I see as a possible future for Bourbon prices

1. The economic troubles we are currently in will endure for several more years.

2. Government at all levels are currently seeking new places to increase real revenues in the form of increased or new taxes.

3. The pressure to compel new taxes on luxury or sin products like tobacco and alcohol will be almost impossible to resist by state legislatures and Congress.

4. Congress and state legislatures will begin to enact new and onerous taxes on alcohol and tobacco.

5. The new taxes will increase incrementally to the breaking point of retail liquor industries leading to increased demand for....you guessed it....illegal liquor.

6. Moonshine comes back by 2020 as a way to avert paying the industry crippling taxes

7. Entire sectors of the legal distilling industry convert to fuel production because they cannot sell their taxed product and the art of making Bourbon heads back to the hills, creeks and branches.

Stu
01-18-2009, 16:58
All jokes aside let me lay out what I see as a possible future for Bourbon prices

1. The economic troubles we are currently in will endure for several more years.

2. Government at all levels are currently seeking new places to increase real revenues in the form of increased or new taxes.

3. The pressure to compel new taxes on luxury or sin products like tobacco and alcohol will be almost impossible to resist by state legislatures and Congress.

4. Congress and state legislatures will begin to enact new and onerous taxes on alcohol and tobacco.

5. The new taxes will increase incrementally to the breaking point of retail liquor industries leading to increased demand for....you guessed it....illegal liquor.

6. Moonshine comes back by 2020 as a way to avert paying the industry crippling taxes

7. Entire sectors of the legal distilling industry convert to fuel production because they cannot sell their taxed product and the art of making Bourbon heads back to the hills, creeks and branches.

I like the way you think. I had an uncle that made some of the best white corn in Indiana. Although I won't do it, I'd be willing to be a customer. However I've probably got about a 3 to 4 year supply right now and I'm 68. Where I live no one comes to visit me so I'll just have to drink harder to make sure I don't leave anything for my brother in law.

Buffalo Bill
01-19-2009, 12:11
In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.


*Haaaa... exactly! Bartering for Bourbon in 2020. Set of new tires = Case of Lot-B.

BB!

Buffalo Bill
01-19-2009, 12:35
I like the way you think. I had an uncle that made some of the best white corn in Indiana. Although I won't do it, I'd be willing to be a customer. However I've probably got about a 3 to 4 year supply right now and I'm 68. Where I live no one comes to visit me so I'll just have to drink harder to make sure I don't leave anything for my brother in law.

**We definitely have that in common; my great grandfather was responsible for some of the most consistent white corn that ever came out of Central Massachusetts. After he passed my great grandmother was so PO'd that she discarded all of the paper and copper. What I would do for that recipe today... needless to say the equipment. That's when you know it runs in the blood, like Jim Koch of Sam Adams brew fame. I'm watching my nephews now, and the one with a degree in chemical engineering has been brewing for more than 10 years. His latest batch was off-the-charts and beyond good. Me? I love the distillation side of the business now... so depending on what gives, 2020 could be BACK-TO-BASICS unless the powers to be get wise. BB

tommyboy38
03-13-2009, 06:57
Stu,
Where do you live? I think there are plenty of fellow bourbonians that would be happy to help you drink some whiskey.

On another note, I can see taxes getting jacked up disproportionately on alcohol and smokes so may as well buy them now...taxes only seem to go one way thanks to the dopes we have as politicians. I try to generate as little tax money as possible.

P.S. - I'd gladly trade two PVW 15 for a decent chainsaw but not a case of lot b for a set of tires. Maybe three cases of PVW 20 for a decent car

tommyboy38
04-01-2009, 09:08
P.P.S. - What a coincidence...My wife and I just bought a used car from her father for the approximate price of three cases ($3,000) of PVW 20.
My father in law rarely drinks or I'd have offered him some whiskey in trade.