PDA

View Full Version : BT shortage?



BFerguson
02-14-2012, 16:37
I thought I read it mentioned around here not long ago-and of course cannot find the reference, but in reading around today it popped up again.

From the K&L crew...."Buffalo Trace isn't selling - they've already announced that Sazerac, Eagle Rare, and Elmer T. Lee are out for 2012, so how could they have extra for anyone else? "

I hear the scambling already.

B

bad_scientist
02-14-2012, 17:33
I thought I read it mentioned around here not long ago-and of course cannot find the reference, but in reading around today it popped up again.

From the K&L crew...."Buffalo Trace isn't selling - they've already announced that Sazerac, Eagle Rare, and Elmer T. Lee are out for 2012, so how could they have extra for anyone else? "

I hear the scambling already.

B

Does that mean that nobody is buying Buffalo Trace whiskey?

Did they say why they're not even releasing any Baby Saz, ER, and ETL?

ETL is an Age whiskey - wouldn't BT make the amount that Age tells them to make?

Tucker
02-14-2012, 17:47
Does that mean that nobody is buying Buffalo Trace whiskey?

The blog entry is in reference to the plight of independents - BT is not selling to independents.

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2012/2/14/the-state-of-the-independents.html (6th paragraph)

bad_scientist
02-14-2012, 18:09
The blog entry is in reference to the plight of independents - BT is not selling to independents.

http://spiritsjournal.klwines.com/klwinescom-spirits-blog/2012/2/14/the-state-of-the-independents.html (6th paragraph)


Thanks for the link! Out of context, it just didn't make any sense to me.

I still believe (strongly) that a 5 year Willett I had was BT. If it was, it could have been purchased a while back and then aged at KBD. Or maybe they had huge growth in the past year or two.

Bourbon Boiler
02-14-2012, 20:32
Thanks Tucker, I'm breathing a little easier now.

JayMonster
02-17-2012, 10:15
Is it just me that finds this unsurprising considering the dropping of the Age Statement off of OWA and WSR?

Clearly (to me), they underestimated some years back and now just don't have enough juice to fill their own needs, never mind selling off barrels to others.

Could this also be part of the reason for rumored demise of the ORVW 10/90 and/or the change to once a year allocations of other Van Winkle products? Or am I misunderstanding this?

luther.r
02-17-2012, 10:26
Is it just me that finds this unsurprising considering the dropping of the Age Statement off of OWA and WSR?

Clearly (to me), they underestimated some years back and now just don't have enough juice to fill their own needs, never mind selling off barrels to others.

Could this also be part of the reason for rumored demise of the ORVW 10/90 and/or the change to once a year allocations of other Van Winkle products? Or am I misunderstanding this?

As far as I know, the Van Winkles have historically been released once a year, with the exception of last year when a spring release was tried for the first time, and this year, which they say will be the last.

And I wouldn't say they underestimated as much as the popularity of high quality bourbon has grown beyond their expectations.

I hope the ORVW 10/90 gets converted to more 10/107. :drinking:

bad_scientist
02-17-2012, 10:42
I'm sure the unbelievable plugs for Pappy on Justified will make things worse this year. I mean, the bottles all are positioned so that Pappy is ashing his cigar on us in every scene it's in. They don't need help selling the brand!!!

Good thing Wild Turkey makes a lot of whiskey, because it's also heavily promoted on that show.

stevegoz
02-17-2012, 11:01
I'm sure the unbelievable plugs for Pappy on Justified will make things worse this year. I mean, the bottles all are positioned so that Pappy is ashing his cigar on us in every scene it's in. They don't need help selling the brand!!!

Good thing Wild Turkey makes a lot of whiskey, because it's also heavily promoted on that show.

There was a different brand served up at one point this week, but I couldn't quite tell what the bottle was. Something squatter than WT or PVW.

I was wondering whether Boyd Crowder was actually able to accommodate that no-good carpetbagger Robert Quarles's request for some Pappy.

bad_scientist
02-17-2012, 11:06
There was a different brand served up at one point this week, but I couldn't quite tell what the bottle was. Something squatter than WT or PVW.

I was wondering whether Boyd Crowder was actually able to accommodate that no-good carpetbagger Robert Quarles's request for some Pappy.

No decent human being would drink it like Quarles did, either, just shooting it. What a douche. I mean, he does a lot of bad things on the show, but that is just the worst :)

But, considering who was working for Boyd while he was in the clink (and perhaps missed the Fall release), you have a point - I doubt they could have gotten Pappy.

JayMonster
02-17-2012, 11:17
As far as I know, the Van Winkles have historically been released once a year, with the exception of last year when a spring release was tried for the first time, and this year, which they say will be the last.

And I wouldn't say they underestimated as much as the popularity of high quality bourbon has grown beyond their expectations.

I hope the ORVW 10/90 gets converted to more 10/107. :drinking:

So what your saying is, they didn't underestimate... rather the popularity of bourbon was greater than what they estimated they needed? :bigeyes: :slappin:


I must admit, I do enjoy the 10/107, so I would not be upset if it was more readily available at the expense of the 10/90... though I won't hold my breathe.

luther.r
02-17-2012, 11:23
So what your saying is, they didn't underestimate... rather the popularity of bourbon was greater than what they estimated they needed?


Well, I'm sure they forecasted based on growth trends, then the trends changed. That's all I'm saying.

Brisko
02-17-2012, 12:09
Is it just me that finds this unsurprising considering the dropping of the Age Statement off of OWA and WSR?

Clearly (to me), they underestimated some years back and now just don't have enough juice to fill their own needs, never mind selling off barrels to others.

Could this also be part of the reason for rumored demise of the ORVW 10/90 and/or the change to once a year allocations of other Van Winkle products? Or am I misunderstanding this?

Well, all of the brands the newsletter mentioned are rye-recipes, not wheaters, FWIW. Don't get me wrong, BT is short on aged stock and have been for a while, but the OWA/WSR label changes are just the latest strategic shift. They've already done a lot to ease their supply issues over the last ten years (eliminating Weller Centennial, OCPR and OC12, diluting Eagle Rare, and so on). And it's hardly just BT that has this problem. Heaven Hill and Wild Turkey have already taken similar steps.

On a different note, this line from the newsletter caught my attention: "Why would a distillery ever sell their casks off?" I asked at one point. I can think of 5 reasons just off the top of my head (there are probably more), and the fact that the writer fails answer his own question makes me wonder how well he really understands the industry.

Wall Eye
02-17-2012, 12:13
There was a different brand served up at one point this week, but I couldn't quite tell what the bottle was. Something squatter than WT or PVW.

Boyd was enjoying a little Elmer T Lee this week from what I could see.

I think this has all the makings of a new weekly game - spot the bottle(s) of the week. So far Pappy has been well represented.


Rich

bad_scientist
02-17-2012, 12:23
Boyd was enjoying a little Elmer T Lee this week from what I could see.

I think this has all the makings of a new weekly game - spot the bottle(s) of the week. So far Pappy has been well represented.


Rich

Good call! The writer of that particular episode is on record saying he loves ETL.

http://warmingglow.uproxx.com/2012/01/a-qa-with-justified-writer-jon-worley

Look for Black Maple Hill in the future when he writes.

Brisko
02-17-2012, 12:39
By the way, to answer the question posed ("why would a distillery ever sell off their casks?") here are the reasons I came up with, in no particular order:
convenient way to liquidate barrels that don't meet brand profiles
frees up valuable warehouse space
immediate realization of profits (bird in the hand vs. two in the bush)
eliminates cost of handling/bottling
hedge against future oversupplyIt also occurs to me that there may be tax benefits to selling off new make or partially aged product rather than fully aging it on premises (maybe someone in the know can clarify?). The other thing that he doesn't touch on at all is the difference between bulk sales and contract distillation.

There might be other reasons why a distillery might sell off stocks. Anyone have any others?

stevegoz
02-17-2012, 13:27
Then again...wasn't there something about a highjacked shipment of Pappy during talk of the fall allocation? Maybe Devil was behind it! :slappin:


No decent human being would drink it like Quarles did, either, just shooting it. What a douche. I mean, he does a lot of bad things on the show, but that is just the worst :)

But, considering who was working for Boyd while he was in the clink (and perhaps missed the Fall release), you have a point - I doubt they could have gotten Pappy.

CorvallisCracker
02-17-2012, 13:28
No decent human being would drink [Pappy] like Quarles did, either, just shooting it. What a douche. I mean, he does a lot of bad things on the show, but that is just the worst.

Now, now, don't let it bother you. It's all Make Believe. The part of Robert Quarles is played by Neal McDonough, and the part of Pappy van Winkle is played by Lipton Tea.

bad_scientist
02-17-2012, 13:30
Now, now, don't let it bother you. It's all Make Believe. The part of Robert Quarles is played by Neal McDonough, and the part of Pappy van Winkle is played by Lipton Tea.

Ah, I was wondering how the same guy could be a hero in WWII and a Yankee villain 70 years later and appear to be roughly the same age...

JayMonster
02-17-2012, 14:42
By the way, to answer the question posed ("why would a distillery ever sell off their casks?") here are the reasons I came up with, in no particular order:
convenient way to liquidate barrels that don't meet brand profiles
frees up valuable warehouse space
immediate realization of profits (bird in the hand vs. two in the bush)
eliminates cost of handling/bottling
hedge against future oversupplyIt also occurs to me that there may be tax benefits to selling off new make or partially aged product rather than fully aging it on premises (maybe someone in the know can clarify?). The other thing that he doesn't touch on at all is the difference between bulk sales and contract distillation.

There might be other reasons why a distillery might sell off stocks. Anyone have any others?

He does actually answer the question in the same paragraph, explaining some of the same points you have here (sell off excess during slowdows, predominantly).

I'm not sure about things like "freeing up space"... For what? New stock that is further from being salable?

The point he was trying to get at was simply, "why sell to somebody else at wholesale only to make a fraction of the profit? "

And the answer as is friend (and you) point out is that there my be a short term profit gain ny starving off the non-distillers during good times, but they would then also be killing their future glut hedge.

Brisko
02-17-2012, 15:07
He does actually answer the question in the same paragraph, explaining some of the same points you have here (sell off excess during slowdows, predominantly).

I'm not sure about things like "freeing up space"... For what? New stock that is further from being salable?

The point he was trying to get at was simply, "why sell to somebody else at wholesale only to make a fraction of the profit? "

And the answer as is friend (and you) point out is that there my be a short term profit gain ny starving off the non-distillers during good times, but they would then also be killing their future glut hedge.

Well, warehouse space is finite. So it's definitely a good idea, for instance, to sell off stock that doesn't meet your brands' profiles. Or even stock that does, but it's profile that is already oversupplied, even if the distillery's supplies are generally tight.

There are costs associated with aging and ultimately bottling whiskey. I don't think that when they sell a barrel to an indy that the are making a "fraction of the profit." I imagine that their asking, and getting, just what they think they need for the transaction to make good business sense.

At any rate, the only factor the writer could muster to answer his question was oversupply. I'm contending that there are more factors at play.

Bmac
02-19-2012, 09:03
what might be interesting is to look at it from a regional standpoint. I read alot on this board and the web about OWA, WSR, and especially WLW 12yr being hard to find, etc. So from those regions point of view, it would indicate that BT's juice is running low.

I find it hard to belive here in Texas. I have visited over 30 stores in a 50 mile radius and each store has more stock of Weller product than any other. There is always OWA , sometimes 20 or so bottles deep, at 90% of these locations.

What i believe is happening is that the distilleries are looking at regional sales versus overall, and are reducing their presence in those regions, and doubling up on others.

Well...it seems plausible anyway :)

JayMonster
02-19-2012, 16:22
what might be interesting is to look at it from a regional standpoint. I read alot on this board and the web about OWA, WSR, and especially WLW 12yr being hard to find, etc. So from those regions point of view, it would indicate that BT's juice is running low.

I find it hard to belive here in Texas. I have visited over 30 stores in a 50 mile radius and each store has more stock of Weller product than any other. There is always OWA , sometimes 20 or so bottles deep, at 90% of these locations.

What i believe is happening is that the distilleries are looking at regional sales versus overall, and are reducing their presence in those regions, and doubling up on others.

Well...it seems plausible anyway :)

That would make more sense if they were the retailer, but from the perspective of Buffalo Trace, if they had enough juice to go around they would sell in as many markets as possible. Instead, it seems they are playing safe and distributing only in enough markets as they can serve well, rather than trying to cover them all and under-serving them all.