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View Full Version : Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012



TL2000
04-07-2013, 10:10
I hope I did all of those abbreviations correctly...:) Just to be clear, I am not soliciting a trade from anyone on this board. I have the opportunity to trade one of my 2011 PVW 15 year for the 2012 4 Roses LE Small Batch, which IMHO opinion is one of the best whiskeys that I have ever consumed. I'm down to about 1/4 of a bottle on my 4R and am trying to figure out how to replace it.

The guy that I would trade with is a known flipper who is going to try to sell my 15yr for $400 on craigslist, but I still would rather have another bottle of the 4R. I have a moral dilemma of not contributing further to the BS PVW craze/price gouging that is making this even more difficult. So like I said, I'm interested in opinions.

1. Should I do this deal or not.
2. Is this really a straight up deal considering what I know he is going to try and flip it for?
3. What else should I ask for in addition to the 4R? A lot B?

Thanks

squire
04-07-2013, 10:22
Ummm, so the question is should you assist this fellow engage in the illegal sale of alcoholic goods . . . well . . .no.

LostBottle
04-07-2013, 11:19
You should aim to accumulate whatever you will get the most pleasure from drinking. In this case, it sounds like 4R.

bourbonandbacon
04-07-2013, 13:54
i am personally a believer in bourbon karma. so, from that standpoint, i probably would not deal with a known flipper who exploits what we hold dear, regardless of the legality involved. while i certainly relate to your situation in wishing you had more of a limited release product, i think that the bourbon gods will make it right with you one way or another.

Wryguy
04-07-2013, 15:48
Put the squeeze on him, boss... Threaten to report him to the ATF, then get him to sell you the 4Roses at his cost. Easy bit of blackmail. These nefarious flipper sorts deserve no less. That way you get to keep your Pappy and back-up your dwindling 4RLESmB2012.

Seriously though, when you "gift" someone a bottle in exchange for your own "gift" of booze what happens afterwards is literally out of your hands. Said flipper could drop and shatter that bottle of Pappy on the way to the car. Are you going to feel bad about that, and try to make it right? Or are you going to engage in the above scheme? My guess is no on both counts. Best to concern yourself with your own stash and maintaining it to your satisfaction, as LostBottle noted.

TL2000
04-07-2013, 17:22
Agreed. I can also say that from my private messages I was I definitely right to want to go for more than a straight up trade. I'm tempted to sell it at cost to the guy who owns the liquor store near me for first shot at a Van Winkle Rye this year. I literally have 1/8 of a bottle left and have no realistic shot at replacing it.

The flipper wants $150 for the 4R that he has, which I can't do even though I like the bottle that much. It's people like him that have removed my ability to walk into a liquor store and buy Lot B for $27. I remember 2 years ago when I turned down Lot B at $70 and 15yr at $85 and now you can't touch it for 2x that price. I like PVW as much as the next guy, but for $400 I'd buy a nice bottle of cognac or armangac and call it a day.

MauiSon
04-07-2013, 17:23
Straight up trade plus half his net profit (with an $80 minimum guarantee). That's how I see it.

mark fleetwood
04-07-2013, 19:30
Run, don't walk, from this.

hectic1
04-07-2013, 19:32
If you enjoy the FR more then the Pappy 15 then do it...why does it matter what your trading partner does with the bottle after it? You're going to drink it not sell it right? ;)

CoMobourbon
04-07-2013, 19:43
The disparity between the responses so far is really interesting; they've ranged from 'do whatever the hell you want' to 'if you do this, you are going to hell'.

Personally, I'm not sure what I would do. This is basically a tragedy-of-the-commons moral dilemma (where the action is self-beneficial and isn't all that bad, but if everyone did it it would make the world a worse place). So, it's not choice between an immediately good or harmful option. I always know that I should act to resist the worsening of the environment (e.g. bourbon market), but I know that someone else will just do it anyway. Sometimes I do the futile noble selfless thing, and sometimes I don't.

*So you shouldn't do it, but I wouldn't judge you if you did. Hell, I might in your position.

savagehenry
04-07-2013, 19:45
Do the trade.
Attn SB nation: if you see a PVW 15 on Craigslist for $400 do not buy it.

hectic1
04-07-2013, 19:49
We're talking about a bottle of bourbon here...it's not a kidney. If you feel that you're going to enjoy drinking one over the other that is all that should matter. It's not a $400 bottle if you're not willing to pay it...it's whatever you paid vs whatever he paid for it at the store as resale value shouldn't even be considered unless you plan on selling it. I would happily trade a 2011 PVW15 for a FRLE SmB 2012 as I think the FR's is a better bourbon...now if you were asking for a 2009 or earlier PVW15 I might have a different answer. ;)

smokinjoe
04-07-2013, 19:58
If you really like the FR, then yeah, go ahead and do the trade. The other dude will do...what he does. Heck, people are running stores on here, for Pete's Sake. Can't stop a schmuck from being a schmuck.

CoMobourbon
04-07-2013, 20:03
We're talking about a bottle of bourbon here...it's not a kidney. If you feel that you're going to enjoy drinking one over the other that is all that should matter. It's not a $400 bottle if you're not willing to pay it...it's whatever you paid vs whatever he paid for it at the store as resale value shouldn't even be considered unless you plan on selling it. I would happily trade a 2011 PVW15 for a FRLE SmB 2012 as I think the FR's is a better bourbon...now if you were asking for a 2009 or earlier PVW15 I might have a different answer. ;)

I both agree and disagree. I agree in that, yeah, it's not THAT big a deal - it's just bourbon, no lives are at stake here, its not like we are ruining the lives of some 3rd world laborers by using this product, etc. I also agree with your conclusion - I mean, I might / probably would just do it.

But I disagree with the premise that this decision only involves two bottles of bourbon. Because when flippers can complete $400 dollars exchanges for highly desirable stuff, that unquestionably has a subtle-but-radical ripple effect on the bourbon market as a whole. More specifically, it puts upward pressure on the price of other PVW's, which in turn puts similar upward pressure on other premium bourbon prices, which in turn puts marginal, slow, but cumulatively significant upward pressure on non-premium offerings. Money, and even particular purchases, are existentially inter-connected with other money and other purchases; no transaction ever takes place in a vacuum.

Now, clearly, one more $400 flip is a drop in the bucket. And of course, one person resisting does nothing to stop the other X thousand bottle owners from flipping; it's going to happen anyway. But in so far as one action contributes to a larger pattern, one $400 flip is part of the problem.

hectic1
04-07-2013, 20:08
I both agree and disagree. I agree in that, yeah, it's not THAT big a deal - it's just bourbon, no lives are at stake here, its not like we are ruining the lives of some 3rd world laborers by using this product, etc. I also agree with your conclusion - I mean, I might / probably would just do it.

But I disagree with the premise that this decision only involves two bottles of bourbon. Because when flippers can complete $400 dollars exchanges for highly desirable stuff, that unquestionably has a subtle-but-radical ripple effect on the bourbon market as a whole. More specifically, it puts upward pressure on the price of other PVW's, which in turn puts similar upward pressure on other premium bourbon prices, which in turn puts marginal, slow, but cumulatively significant upward pressure on non-premium offerings. Money, and even particular purchases, are existentially inter-connected with other money and other purchases; no transaction ever takes place in a vacuum.

Now, clearly, one more $400 flip is a drop in the bucket. And of course, one person resisting does nothing to stop the other X thousand bottle owners from flipping; it's going to happen anyway. But in so far as one action contributes to a larger pattern, one $400 flip is part of the problem. I don't buy VW bourbons and I don't care what people are asking or selling it for so yes, for me it is soley about two bottles of bourbon. He intends on drinking it so his only consideration IMO is which bottle does he enjoy more.

Wryguy
04-07-2013, 20:11
I both agree and disagree. I agree in that, yeah, it's not THAT big a deal - it's just bourbon, no lives are at stake here, its not like we are ruining the lives of some 3rd world laborers by using this product, etc. I also agree with your conclusion - I mean, I might / probably would just do it.

But I disagree with the premise that this decision only involves two bottles of bourbon. Because when flippers can complete $400 dollars exchanges for highly desirable stuff, that unquestionably has a subtle-but-radical ripple effect on the bourbon market as a whole. More specifically, it puts upward pressure on the price of other PVW's, which in turn puts similar upward pressure on other premium bourbon prices, which in turn puts marginal, slow, but cumulatively significant upward pressure on non-premium offerings. Money, and even particular purchases, are existentially inter-connected with other money and other purchases; no transaction ever takes place in a vacuum.

Now, clearly, one more $400 flip is a drop in the bucket. And of course, one person resisting does nothing to stop the other X thousand bottle owners from flipping; it's going to happen anyway. But in so far as one action contributes to a larger pattern, one $400 flip is part of the problem.

That economics lesson made me reach for some rye. Thank you for that.

nd2005
04-07-2013, 20:36
We're talking about a bottle of bourbon here...it's not a kidney. If you feel that you're going to enjoy drinking one over the other that is all that should matter. It's not a $400 bottle if you're not willing to pay it...it's whatever you paid vs whatever he paid for it at the store as resale value shouldn't even be considered unless you plan on selling it. I would happily trade a 2011 PVW15 for a FRLE SmB 2012 as I think the FR's is a better bourbon...now if you were asking for a 2009 or earlier PVW15 I might have a different answer. ;)

I disagree with this.

There are two questions to be dealt with here.

The first question is the moralistic question of whether one should trade with a flipper or not.

The second question is the practical question of what constitutes a "fair" trade in this case. IMHO the retail value is relatively meaningless in answering this question. If the flipper is going to turn around and sell this for $400, then it is a very poor trade to straight up trade the PVW for the 4R. Even if you subjectively evaluate the 4 Roses as a superior bourbon, you have to consider the scarcity and resale value in making the trade. If the OP decides it is worth trading, he should absolutely do his best to drive a hard bargain and get as much from the flipper as he can.

hectic1
04-07-2013, 20:43
I disagree with this.

There are two questions to be dealt with here.

The first question is the moralistic question of whether one should trade with a flipper or not.

The second question is the practical question of what constitutes a "fair" trade in this case. IMHO the retail value is relatively meaningless in answering this question. If the flipper is going to turn around and sell this for $400, then it is a very poor trade to straight up trade the PVW for the 4R. Even if you subjectively evaluate the 4 Roses as a superior bourbon, you have to consider the scarcity and resale value in making the trade. If the OP decides it is worth trading, he should absolutely do his best to drive a hard bargain and get as much from the flipper as he can.
One could venture to guess that he paid less for the PVW15 then the "flipper" did for the FRLE SmB 2012. Both are hard to find and one could argue that the FR is more sought after by hardcore bourbon drinkers then the 2011 PVW15 is. We all know that the PVW15 is BT juice that will be replicated by subsiquent years...it's not the pre 2009 bottles that had SW juice in them that can't be replicated. ;)

MauiSon
04-07-2013, 21:09
I disagree with the proposition that after-market sales significantly modify the primary bourbon market. I also see no evil in after-market sales, they provide market liquidity and often prove the greater-fool proposition of bubble economics. There is no moral issue here, that's pure poppycock.

nd2005
04-07-2013, 21:17
One could venture to guess that he paid less for the PVW15 then the "flipper" did for the FRLE SmB 2012. Both are hard to find and one could argue that the FR is more sought after by hardcore bourbon drinkers then the 2011 PVW15 is. We all know that the PVW15 is BT juice that will be replicated by subsiquent years...it's not the pre 2009 bottles that had SW juice in them that can't be replicated. ;)


My only point is that ignoring the resale value makes the OP a foolish trader. The quality of the bourbon has no place in the discussion. It should all be about how much the OP can get out of the trade. A straight up trade is likely not the best the OP can do off of this flipper.

hectic1
04-07-2013, 21:25
The quality of the bourbon has no place in the discussion.

LOL...seriously? :slappin:

compliance
04-07-2013, 22:31
If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.

CoMobourbon
04-08-2013, 01:56
I don't buy VW bourbons and I don't care what people are asking or selling it for so yes, for me it is soley about two bottles of bourbon. He intends on drinking it so his only consideration IMO is which bottle does he enjoy more.

I'm not sure that you understood my point at all; the fact that you don't buy VW bottles has almost nothing to do with it. Let me try to make it more clear.



But I disagree with the premise that this decision only involves two bottles of bourbon. Because when flippers can complete $400 dollars exchanges for highly desirable stuff, that unquestionably has a subtle-but-radical ripple effect on the bourbon market as a whole. More specifically, it puts upward pressure on the price of other PVW's, which in turn puts similar upward pressure on other premium bourbon prices, which in turn puts marginal, slow, but cumulatively significant upward pressure on non-premium offerings. Money, and even particular purchases, are existentially inter-connected with other money and other purchases; no transaction ever takes place in a vacuum.


(I am assuming that you don't sell any bottles, so that you only participate in the buyer's market.) Even if you never buy a bottle of PVW, what people are able to charge for this pedestal bourbon influences what people are able to charge for other slightly less desired (money-wise) premium bourbons. In other words, if retailers or even non PVW flippers know that PVW only goes for, say, $100 (which is about retail price, and what would happen if there was magically no black market at all), that puts a lower ceiling on what even the most unscrupulous would charge for BTAC, or BMH, or FRLE, or high end Willet, etc. People are likely to charge less than $100, and certainly no one would try to charge a whole lot over $100, for these other premium products. It's not that they didn't want to charge more. It's just that, say, $300 would seem not only exploitative but also laughably ridiculous. $300 BTAC would not even be in the conversation, much less a reasonable price. But, when everybody knows that these PVW flippers can get closer in the neighborhood of $400. that raises the ceiling / loosens the range of what prices might be considered reasonable or at least feasible for other premium bourbon. Suddenly, the $300 BTAC is within the unscrupulous retailer's / flipper's reach. AND THEN, all of these price increases makes retailers more comfortable with incremental (or sometimes not-so-incremental) price increases on non-premium products; the boundaries for reasonable and/or feasible prices has been loosened.*

This brings us back to you, the non-PVW purchaser. It seems like you are a pretty active participant in the premium bourbon market, PVW notwithstanding. When PVW prices are that high (which they only ever are on the black market), people can and do charge you more for non-PVW premium bourbons. It also brings things back to me, the buyer in the value bourbon market; the prices I see are more likely to rise even faster than they would otherwise if the very highest prices go up. I assume that increased prices on premium products matter to you. But even if money is no object for you, it definitely is a very fundamental consideration for the 98%+ of other buyers like me.

*I am aware, of course, that there are lots of factors causing the across-the-board bourbon price increases, and that scarcity and increased demand have a much more basic impact on prices than flipping ethics. But flipping does contribute to the problem.

CoMobourbon
04-08-2013, 02:18
My only point is that ignoring the resale value makes the OP a foolish trader. The quality of the bourbon has no place in the discussion. It should all be about how much the OP can get out of the trade. A straight up trade is likely not the best the OP can do off of this flipper.

LOL...seriously? :slappin:

Just trying to help a brother out here; again, not sure that you understood his point. His point: even if the quality / pleasure you extract from something is high enough, if you can get proportionately more money for it, then you can turn around and get even more of that quality / pleasurable object. That's how money works. That's why you always want more money; everybody, with their various judgements of value, quality, or taste, takes cash - so you can ultimately get more of what you want with cash by finding those who value that object less.

Cheesy Analogy Time: Let's accept that our end goal is to maximize hedonistic satisfaction - to get the most of the stuff that makes us the most happy. In the 18th and 19th century, glass beads gave Native Americans great hedonistic satisfaction. It gave them more hedonistic satisfaction even than the valuable commodities - lets just say pelts - which they traded for it. Fair deal, right? I mean, to each his own, and the Native Americans liked the glass beads more, so fair deal. But then the white traders could turn around and sell the pelts for lots of money - enough money to buy 10x as many glass beads as they gave the Native American sellers in the first place. So, if the Native Americans had demanded the cash value for the pelts, they could have (hypothetically) gone to the glass bead store and bought way more glass beads as they would have gotten if they had traded on direct hedonistic pleasure alone.


If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.

This also explains compliance's answer, by the way. If you can get cash, then you can get exactly what you want. In compliances perfect scenario, in which you get every bit as much as the professional flipper, you end up with the FRLE you want AND $250 to spend on other bourbon. Maybe you want the FRLE more than the PVW, but you obviously would want the FRLE + 10x OGD114 even more than just the FRLE. You may get more pleasure out of the FRLE than PVW, but FRLE + more bourbon you like gives you much more pleasure.

CoMobourbon
04-08-2013, 02:29
So, in summary, there are multiple drawbacks to the 'make the trade that makes you the happiest in the short-term' approach - some more compelling than others.

nd2005
04-08-2013, 03:41
Just trying to help a brother out here; again, not sure that you understood his point. His point: even if the quality / pleasure you extract from something is high enough, if you can get proportionately more money for it, then you can turn around and get even more of that quality / pleasurable object. That's how money works. That's why you always want more money; everybody, with their various judgements of value, quality, or taste, takes cash - so you can ultimately get more of what you want with cash by finding those who value that object less.

Exactly. My only point was that if the OP is going ahead with a trade, he should do his best to drive a hard bargain and maximize what he gets out of the deal. Otherwise he is getting fleeced as badly as the person who buys the bottle for $400, and the flipper wins not once but twice.

TL2000
04-08-2013, 04:24
Unfortunately I have ethics and something to lose if I get caught illegally selling alcohol...:) The price isn't the issue, although I wouldn't sneeze at $20 let alone $400. My initial thought was that my 15 year was worth significantly more than the 1 bottle of 4R and I wanted to confirm my opinion. I'm not going to do the trade because I don't want this person to profit off the PWV hysteria any more.

Thanks for all of the opinions, I appreciate the thought that everyone gave this. While this definitely isn't life or death, it's going to feel like it when I finish off my 4R in a few weeks...:)


If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.

CoMobourbon
04-08-2013, 04:57
I disagree with the proposition that after-market sales significantly modify the primary bourbon market.

Really? I mean, I can't say that I have anything more than speculation and anecdotal evidence, but I find it hard to believe that anyone could seriously think that secondary markets have no appreciable impact on primary markets. Really, I am not even sure what to say here.

OK, lets try this classic scenario: retailer prices bourbon X at $80, which is the suggested retail; retailer discovers that online flippers have priced bourbon X at $200; retailer changes his price to $150 or $200. Now, really, in a sense, this is just price adjusting to demand, but the online secondary market price both accelerates and warps this adjustment. It accelerates it in self-evident ways (see previous). It also warps it in the sense that it juxtaposes the demands of a very narrow and abnormal niche market (i.e. the crazy rich but unknowing hipster or yuppie who just has to have the best at any cost) onto the general market (via the all-connectedness of the internet). And the demand level of the niche market does not match that that of the general market. So unless a rich ignorant hipster/yuppie walks in, bourbon X sits on the shelf with a $200 price sticker.


I also see no evil in after-market sales, they provide market liquidity and often prove the greater-fool proposition of bubble economics. There is no moral issue here, that's pure poppycock.

No one is suggesting that the secondary market doesn't have its uses. But, as described above above, there are significant downsides to certain kinds of secondary market sales. And so facilitating secondary market sales inflicts consequences - negative ones - on the community.

In terms of morality, then, one is left to consider the function of consequences in the moral decision-making process. If morality consists only in the act itself, and consequences don't matter at all, then a decision to trade two bourbons is all about preference. Hell, if consequences don't matter at all, then there is nothing at all wrong with selling a known murderer (who insists that he will kill again) a handgun (extreme example, yes, but the point is clear). I mean selling something is OK, right? But if consequences do matter at least some, then decisions like these become more difficult. Yes, the consequences are at worst not all that bad and at best constitute a drop in the bucket - but there are actually negative consequences.

I don't know. I think he made the right choice - one that I hope I would have made. TL, I salute you.

Wryguy
04-08-2013, 05:03
CoMoBo, do you sleep? We are all edified by your didactic posts on black market bourbon pricing, but, by all means feel free to take a break and have a drink after all that typing. Made me tired just reading it.

callmeox
04-08-2013, 06:23
This thread has gone way past the question asked by the OP and it appears that he has gotten his answer.

If you would like to debate the dead horse topic of markets and such, please open a new thread.

hectic1
04-08-2013, 07:31
CoMoBo, do you sleep? We are all edified by your didactic posts on black market bourbon pricing, but, by all means feel free to take a break and have a drink after all that typing. Made me tired just reading it.
LOL...I got his point the first time but he evidentially likes to show off his understanding of the fundamentals of economics in a capitalist market. The OP has decided that a bottle of PVW15 is "worth" more the the FR bottle so he isn't going to make the trade even though he has said he likes the FR bourbon better...it is this thought process that I don't understand.

Halifax
04-08-2013, 07:43
LOL...I got his point the first time but he evidentially likes to show off his understanding of the fundamentals of economics in a capitalist market. The OP has decided that a bottle of PVW15 is "worth" more the the FR bottle so he isn't going to make the trade even though he has said he likes the FR bourbon better...it is this thought process that I don't understand.

C'mon Bob... You know the drill. You have to extort the extorter. It's about the money... The bourbon wasn't the priority here. It was all about the deal itself.