BT shortage?

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Originally Posted by JayMonster

He does actually answer the question in the same paragraph, explaining some of the same points you have here (sell off excess during slowdows, predominantly).

I'm not sure about things like "freeing up space"... For what? New stock that is further from being salable?

The point he was trying to get at was simply, "why sell to somebody else at wholesale only to make a fraction of the profit? "

And the answer as is friend (and you) point out is that there my be a short term profit gain ny starving off the non-distillers during good times, but they would then also be killing their future glut hedge.

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Well, warehouse space is finite. So it's definitely a good idea, for instance, to sell off stock that doesn't meet your brands' profiles. Or even stock that does, but it's profile that is already oversupplied, even if the distillery's supplies are generally tight.

There are costs associated with aging and ultimately bottling whiskey. I don't think that when they sell a barrel to an indy that the are making a "fraction of the profit." I imagine that their asking, and getting, just what they think they need for the transaction to make good business sense.

At any rate, the only factor the writer could muster to answer his question was oversupply. I'm contending that there are more factors at play.

what might be interesting is to look at it from a regional standpoint. I read alot on this board and the web about OWA, WSR, and especially WLW 12yr being hard to find, etc. So from those regions point of view, it would indicate that BT's juice is running low.

I find it hard to belive here in Texas. I have visited over 30 stores in a 50 mile radius and each store has more stock of Weller product than any other. There is always OWA , sometimes 20 or so bottles deep, at 90% of these locations.

What i believe is happening is that the distilleries are looking at regional sales versus overall, and are reducing their presence in those regions, and doubling up on others.

Well...it seems plausible anyway :)

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Originally Posted by Bmac

what might be interesting is to look at it from a regional standpoint. I read alot on this board and the web about OWA, WSR, and especially WLW 12yr being hard to find, etc. So from those regions point of view, it would indicate that BT's juice is running low.

I find it hard to belive here in Texas. I have visited over 30 stores in a 50 mile radius and each store has more stock of Weller product than any other. There is always OWA , sometimes 20 or so bottles deep, at 90% of these locations.

What i believe is happening is that the distilleries are looking at regional sales versus overall, and are reducing their presence in those regions, and doubling up on others.

Well...it seems plausible anyway :)

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That would make more sense if they were the retailer, but from the perspective of Buffalo Trace, if they had enough juice to go around they would sell in as many markets as possible. Instead, it seems they are playing safe and distributing only in enough markets as they can serve well, rather than trying to cover them all and under-serving them all.