Welcome to the Straightbourbon.com Forums.
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 21
  1. #1
    Enthusiast
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Cape Cod MA
    Posts
    266

    Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    Ok fellas, what's the price of Bourbon going to be in the year 2020; considering the cost of inflation, corn going to ethanol, and whatever the next engineered crisis that affects the bottom line cost. 2020 sounds so far away, but 11 years is right around the corner... the problem is economic complexity in this wonderfully new world order (chaos) taking us into the next decade. Get out your calculator and write your thoughts here and now - think hard - and lets talk economics!

    Who's out there in-the-know?!?

    Start with comparative pricing - low tier to high tier.

    Low = Beam White label

    High = Pappy 20

    At the moment we have an $80 average spread between Beam White and Pappy 20.

    What's it going to be in 2020?

    Here we go... BB

  2. #2
    Taster
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    CA
    Posts
    88

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    If you can accurately predict the price of ANYTHING 12 years out, you should be trading the financial markets and not wasting your time on a bourbon board.

    The current deflationary environment should mostly halt the price rise for luxury whiskies. It might take a couple years, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices actually fall. As unemployment continues to rise and people continue to pare down to the essentials, I can see expensive whiskey being one of the first luxuries to go. This drop in demand would cause the distilleries and distributors to rethink their yearly price hikes.

    I'd say the best guess for 2020 would be to look at todays prices and use that as your answer.

  3. #3
    Enthusiast
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Cape Cod MA
    Posts
    266

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    And that's exactly it - not a waste of time - looking for input. I'm not a financial planner or wall street analyst, not my game. Although I am an analyst - Therefore, I put the word out for DISCUSSION on the bourbon board, and by the way - the arrogance here with YOU is off the charts - so get a life, asshole!

    BB

  4. #4
    Guru
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Northern Kentucky
    Posts
    3,428

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    PVW will be gone and sought by dusty hunters. We will be in another "sweet spot" for the boubon market as the ramp up of production from 2008 -09 hits the market without a commensurate growth in demand.
    John B

    "Drinking when we are not thirsty and making love at all seasons… that is all there is to distinguish us from other animals."

  5. #5
    Taster
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    CA
    Posts
    88

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

    I love wasting time on this board, and many others.

  6. #6
    Enthusiast
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Cape Cod MA
    Posts
    266

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Mamba View Post
    I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

    I love wasting time on this board, and many others.
    -------

    Apology accepted, I did take that rather literal... not to get overly personal, but on New Years Eve I rec'd a phone call that I lost my brother, death in my family. It's absolutely staggering (not in the alcohol sense of the word) what happens to a person (me) after an event like that. Easy to get short... anyway, the board is a good distraction - good bunch, fun topics. I retract my comment. BB

  7. #7
    Guru
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    AZ
    Posts
    2,726

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    Bill
    I am sorry for you loss. I cannot imagine that kind of close loss. Hope all is well...


    Now to your question, it is an interesting one that I have thought about in passing... I think you can predict for this market based on what was seen in the other spirits that began to go premium like bourbon is trying to...

    I think you can also see the beginning of the trend with FRs yearly plus line of their $75 bourbon, the BTACs running up to $70, the Van Winkles $65-250... HHs premiums, etc....

    My guess you will always see some cheep bottom shelf, but they will get worse... $10 bottles will be the Grocery store brand...

    So my guess is an average increase of ~33% across the market for a bottle the next 10-11 years.

  8. #8
    Guru
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Wash DC Metro
    Posts
    2,413

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    Speculation what it is, I would agree with Spun. I do some dusty hunting and the price difference over a 20 year spread is not that great; at least what I see here in my area. When I buy a dusty, many times the price tag is faded and obviously very dated. Just the other day I purchased a 1990 Rebel Yell for ~$16. I can buy the current release of Rebel Yell for $16. Benchmark Premium from 1985 around $12. Current release around $10, etc. etc. Maybe this trend will continue, maybe not. Spun mentioned that a BTAC bottle goes for $70. I think those prices are market driven by state. I can go into WV and buy the same bottle for $43, that's a 60% swing in price.
    “Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.” - P.J. O’Rourke
    Greg's "bourbondork" blog

  9. #9
    Enthusiast
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Cape Cod MA
    Posts
    266

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    There has been a significant jump in Pappy this month. $10-15 per. We're not talking cents anymore.

  10. #10
    Enthusiast
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    South Eastern PA
    Posts
    292

    Re: Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

    In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.

 

 

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Back to top