Bourbon $$$ in the 2020

[Buffalo Bill]

Ok fellas, what's the price of Bourbon going to be in the year 2020; considering the cost of inflation, corn going to ethanol, and whatever the next engineered crisis that affects the bottom line cost. 2020 sounds so far away, but 11 years is right around the corner... the problem is economic complexity in this wonderfully new world order (chaos) taking us into the next decade. Get out your calculator and write your thoughts here and now - think hard - and lets talk economics!

Who's out there in-the-know?!?

Start with comparative pricing - low tier to high tier.

Low = Beam White label

High = Pappy 20

At the moment we have an $80 average spread between Beam White and Pappy 20.

What's it going to be in 2020?

Here we go... BB

[Mamba]

If you can accurately predict the price of ANYTHING 12 years out, you should be trading the financial markets and not wasting your time on a bourbon board.

The current deflationary environment should mostly halt the price rise for luxury whiskies. It might take a couple years, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices actually fall. As unemployment continues to rise and people continue to pare down to the essentials, I can see expensive whiskey being one of the first luxuries to go. This drop in demand would cause the distilleries and distributors to rethink their yearly price hikes.

I'd say the best guess for 2020 would be to look at todays prices and use that as your answer.

[Buffalo Bill]

And that's exactly it - not a waste of time - looking for input. I'm not a financial planner or wall street analyst, not my game. Although I am an analyst - Therefore, I put the word out for DISCUSSION on the bourbon board, and by the way - the arrogance here with YOU is off the charts - so get a life, asshole!

BB

[jburlowski]

PVW will be gone and sought by dusty hunters. We will be in another "sweet spot" for the boubon market as the ramp up of production from 2008 -09 hits the market without a commensurate growth in demand.

[Mamba]

I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

I love wasting time on this board, and many others.

[Buffalo Bill]

I wasn't trying to come across as arrogant; sorry for offending you. I was just saying that this type of question is impossible to answer.

I love wasting time on this board, and many others.

-------

Apology accepted, I did take that rather literal... not to get overly personal, but on New Years Eve I rec'd a phone call that I lost my brother, death in my family. It's absolutely staggering (not in the alcohol sense of the word) what happens to a person (me) after an event like that. Easy to get short... anyway, the board is a good distraction - good bunch, fun topics. I retract my comment. BB

[spun_cookie]

Bill
I am sorry for you loss. I cannot imagine that kind of close loss. Hope all is well...


Now to your question, it is an interesting one that I have thought about in passing... I think you can predict for this market based on what was seen in the other spirits that began to go premium like bourbon is trying to...

I think you can also see the beginning of the trend with FRs yearly plus line of their $75 bourbon, the BTACs running up to $70, the Van Winkles $65-250... HHs premiums, etc....

My guess you will always see some cheep bottom shelf, but they will get worse... $10 bottles will be the Grocery store brand...

So my guess is an average increase of ~33% across the market for a bottle the next 10-11 years.

[ggilbertva]

Speculation what it is, I would agree with Spun. I do some dusty hunting and the price difference over a 20 year spread is not that great; at least what I see here in my area. When I buy a dusty, many times the price tag is faded and obviously very dated. Just the other day I purchased a 1990 Rebel Yell for ~$16. I can buy the current release of Rebel Yell for $16. Benchmark Premium from 1985 around $12. Current release around $10, etc. etc. Maybe this trend will continue, maybe not. Spun mentioned that a BTAC bottle goes for $70. I think those prices are market driven by state. I can go into WV and buy the same bottle for $43, that's a 60% swing in price.

[Buffalo Bill]

There has been a significant jump in Pappy this month. $10-15 per. We're not talking cents anymore.

[PAspirit1]

In the year 2020, the US economy will be bourbon based. Goods and services will measured in terms of bourbon units. An axe head will cost one bottle of Evan Williams Black. A good chain saw will run you two bottles of PVW15.