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  1. #21
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Quote Originally Posted by nd2005 View Post
    The quality of the bourbon has no place in the discussion.
    LOL...seriously?
    You can find me in chat most nights on days ending with the letter y!

  2. #22
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.

  3. #23
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Quote Originally Posted by hectic1 View Post
    I don't buy VW bourbons and I don't care what people are asking or selling it for so yes, for me it is soley about two bottles of bourbon. He intends on drinking it so his only consideration IMO is which bottle does he enjoy more.
    I'm not sure that you understood my point at all; the fact that you don't buy VW bottles has almost nothing to do with it. Let me try to make it more clear.

    Quote Originally Posted by CoMobourbon View Post
    But I disagree with the premise that this decision only involves two bottles of bourbon. Because when flippers can complete $400 dollars exchanges for highly desirable stuff, that unquestionably has a subtle-but-radical ripple effect on the bourbon market as a whole. More specifically, it puts upward pressure on the price of other PVW's, which in turn puts similar upward pressure on other premium bourbon prices, which in turn puts marginal, slow, but cumulatively significant upward pressure on non-premium offerings. Money, and even particular purchases, are existentially inter-connected with other money and other purchases; no transaction ever takes place in a vacuum.
    (I am assuming that you don't sell any bottles, so that you only participate in the buyer's market.) Even if you never buy a bottle of PVW, what people are able to charge for this pedestal bourbon influences what people are able to charge for other slightly less desired (money-wise) premium bourbons. In other words, if retailers or even non PVW flippers know that PVW only goes for, say, $100 (which is about retail price, and what would happen if there was magically no black market at all), that puts a lower ceiling on what even the most unscrupulous would charge for BTAC, or BMH, or FRLE, or high end Willet, etc. People are likely to charge less than $100, and certainly no one would try to charge a whole lot over $100, for these other premium products. It's not that they didn't want to charge more. It's just that, say, $300 would seem not only exploitative but also laughably ridiculous. $300 BTAC would not even be in the conversation, much less a reasonable price. But, when everybody knows that these PVW flippers can get closer in the neighborhood of $400. that raises the ceiling / loosens the range of what prices might be considered reasonable or at least feasible for other premium bourbon. Suddenly, the $300 BTAC is within the unscrupulous retailer's / flipper's reach. AND THEN, all of these price increases makes retailers more comfortable with incremental (or sometimes not-so-incremental) price increases on non-premium products; the boundaries for reasonable and/or feasible prices has been loosened.*

    This brings us back to you, the non-PVW purchaser. It seems like you are a pretty active participant in the premium bourbon market, PVW notwithstanding. When PVW prices are that high (which they only ever are on the black market), people can and do charge you more for non-PVW premium bourbons. It also brings things back to me, the buyer in the value bourbon market; the prices I see are more likely to rise even faster than they would otherwise if the very highest prices go up. I assume that increased prices on premium products matter to you. But even if money is no object for you, it definitely is a very fundamental consideration for the 98%+ of other buyers like me.

    *I am aware, of course, that there are lots of factors causing the across-the-board bourbon price increases, and that scarcity and increased demand have a much more basic impact on prices than flipping ethics. But flipping does contribute to the problem.
    Last edited by CoMobourbon; 04-08-2013 at 01:48.
    I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.
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  4. #24
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Quote Originally Posted by nd2005 View Post
    My only point is that ignoring the resale value makes the OP a foolish trader. The quality of the bourbon has no place in the discussion. It should all be about how much the OP can get out of the trade. A straight up trade is likely not the best the OP can do off of this flipper.
    Quote Originally Posted by hectic1 View Post
    LOL...seriously?
    Just trying to help a brother out here; again, not sure that you understood his point. His point: even if the quality / pleasure you extract from something is high enough, if you can get proportionately more money for it, then you can turn around and get even more of that quality / pleasurable object. That's how money works. That's why you always want more money; everybody, with their various judgements of value, quality, or taste, takes cash - so you can ultimately get more of what you want with cash by finding those who value that object less.

    Cheesy Analogy Time: Let's accept that our end goal is to maximize hedonistic satisfaction - to get the most of the stuff that makes us the most happy. In the 18th and 19th century, glass beads gave Native Americans great hedonistic satisfaction. It gave them more hedonistic satisfaction even than the valuable commodities - lets just say pelts - which they traded for it. Fair deal, right? I mean, to each his own, and the Native Americans liked the glass beads more, so fair deal. But then the white traders could turn around and sell the pelts for lots of money - enough money to buy 10x as many glass beads as they gave the Native American sellers in the first place. So, if the Native Americans had demanded the cash value for the pelts, they could have (hypothetically) gone to the glass bead store and bought way more glass beads as they would have gotten if they had traded on direct hedonistic pleasure alone.

    Quote Originally Posted by compliance View Post
    If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.
    This also explains compliance's answer, by the way. If you can get cash, then you can get exactly what you want. In compliances perfect scenario, in which you get every bit as much as the professional flipper, you end up with the FRLE you want AND $250 to spend on other bourbon. Maybe you want the FRLE more than the PVW, but you obviously would want the FRLE + 10x OGD114 even more than just the FRLE. You may get more pleasure out of the FRLE than PVW, but FRLE + more bourbon you like gives you much more pleasure.
    Last edited by CoMobourbon; 04-08-2013 at 01:23.
    I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.
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  5. #25
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    So, in summary, there are multiple drawbacks to the 'make the trade that makes you the happiest in the short-term' approach - some more compelling than others.
    I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.
    ― Kurt Vonnegut

  6. #26
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Quote Originally Posted by CoMobourbon View Post
    Just trying to help a brother out here; again, not sure that you understood his point. His point: even if the quality / pleasure you extract from something is high enough, if you can get proportionately more money for it, then you can turn around and get even more of that quality / pleasurable object. That's how money works. That's why you always want more money; everybody, with their various judgements of value, quality, or taste, takes cash - so you can ultimately get more of what you want with cash by finding those who value that object less.
    Exactly. My only point was that if the OP is going ahead with a trade, he should do his best to drive a hard bargain and maximize what he gets out of the deal. Otherwise he is getting fleeced as badly as the person who buys the bottle for $400, and the flipper wins not once but twice.

  7. #27

    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Unfortunately I have ethics and something to lose if I get caught illegally selling alcohol... The price isn't the issue, although I wouldn't sneeze at $20 let alone $400. My initial thought was that my 15 year was worth significantly more than the 1 bottle of 4R and I wanted to confirm my opinion. I'm not going to do the trade because I don't want this person to profit off the PWV hysteria any more.

    Thanks for all of the opinions, I appreciate the thought that everyone gave this. While this definitely isn't life or death, it's going to feel like it when I finish off my 4R in a few weeks...

    Quote Originally Posted by compliance View Post
    If you feel like making the trade, don't. Sell the Pappy for $400 yourself and buy his FR for $150. Personally I don't help nor deal with the vultures of society at all, so i would have no part in it.

  8. #28
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    Quote Originally Posted by MauiSon View Post
    I disagree with the proposition that after-market sales significantly modify the primary bourbon market.
    Really? I mean, I can't say that I have anything more than speculation and anecdotal evidence, but I find it hard to believe that anyone could seriously think that secondary markets have no appreciable impact on primary markets. Really, I am not even sure what to say here.

    OK, lets try this classic scenario: retailer prices bourbon X at $80, which is the suggested retail; retailer discovers that online flippers have priced bourbon X at $200; retailer changes his price to $150 or $200. Now, really, in a sense, this is just price adjusting to demand, but the online secondary market price both accelerates and warps this adjustment. It accelerates it in self-evident ways (see previous). It also warps it in the sense that it juxtaposes the demands of a very narrow and abnormal niche market (i.e. the crazy rich but unknowing hipster or yuppie who just has to have the best at any cost) onto the general market (via the all-connectedness of the internet). And the demand level of the niche market does not match that that of the general market. So unless a rich ignorant hipster/yuppie walks in, bourbon X sits on the shelf with a $200 price sticker.

    Quote Originally Posted by MauiSon View Post
    I also see no evil in after-market sales, they provide market liquidity and often prove the greater-fool proposition of bubble economics. There is no moral issue here, that's pure poppycock.
    No one is suggesting that the secondary market doesn't have its uses. But, as described above above, there are significant downsides to certain kinds of secondary market sales. And so facilitating secondary market sales inflicts consequences - negative ones - on the community.

    In terms of morality, then, one is left to consider the function of consequences in the moral decision-making process. If morality consists only in the act itself, and consequences don't matter at all, then a decision to trade two bourbons is all about preference. Hell, if consequences don't matter at all, then there is nothing at all wrong with selling a known murderer (who insists that he will kill again) a handgun (extreme example, yes, but the point is clear). I mean selling something is OK, right? But if consequences do matter at least some, then decisions like these become more difficult. Yes, the consequences are at worst not all that bad and at best constitute a drop in the bucket - but there are actually negative consequences.

    I don't know. I think he made the right choice - one that I hope I would have made. TL, I salute you.
    Last edited by CoMobourbon; 04-08-2013 at 03:59.
    I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.
    ― Kurt Vonnegut

  9. #29
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    CoMoBo, do you sleep? We are all edified by your didactic posts on black market bourbon pricing, but, by all means feel free to take a break and have a drink after all that typing. Made me tired just reading it.

  10. #30
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    Re: Need Opinions - 2011 PVW 15 vs. 4RSmBLE2012

    This thread has gone way past the question asked by the OP and it appears that he has gotten his answer.

    If you would like to debate the dead horse topic of markets and such, please open a new thread.
    My name is Joel Goodson. I deal in human fulfillment.
    I grossed over eight thousand dollars in one night. Time of your life, huh kid?

 

 

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