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  1. #21
    Virtuoso
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    Jun 2012
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    Louisville, ky
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    1,174

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by mbroo5880i View Post
    I understand what is being said and that stock on the shelves now doesn't mean that a shortage isn't coming. However, all I am saying is that there is case upon case of this stuff at Costco and their inventory seems to be growing not shrinking, at least on the sales floor. I see more shrink wrapped cases on top of the shelves. They have also more Woodford now than they did several weeks ago. I realize that they move this stuff quickly but given the amount available around here, it would take several months before the shelves are bare. I see the same thing every where. Today, I saw more MM at Crown Liquors than probably all of the other brands combined. They had cases on the end of the aisles. Of all the brands, MM is the one I am least concerned about not being able to find.

    Every bar that I go into has three staples...MM, Woodford and WT101.

    The supply may dwindle but I am guessing that it will be restored before many even notice. The price will go up. Shortages, or perceived shortages, will cause that. It seems similar to the BT shortage. I see regular information about BT having a shortage while continuing to see an expanding flooding of Buffalo Trace into the market. I see more and more places selling it at cheaper and cheaper prices. Apparently, the distributors aren't seeing the shortage of Buffalo Trace yet. I think the shortage is on aged whiskey. During a recent tour of the BT distillery, the guide indicated that they have enough barreled product to bottle at today's rate for the next 20 years. Of course, unless they distill and store more product, that would result in shortages as global demand increases.
    You're assuming the supply chain is integrated and balanced. Between the three tier system and the fact that we're sitting here comparing billion dollar mega-stores and mom and pop establishments there may be product somewhere but it cannot be freely moved to where the demand is. As a for instance, i saw plenty in stock in 2 separate LCBO locations in Canada....and at $46/750mL, no wonder!

    I'm still curious how much of this was caused (or at least pulled forward) by Beam when they false started the proof change and had that massive spike in demand. Look forward to their next quarterly financial release.

  2. #22
    Mr. Anal Retentive Bourbon Drinker
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Houston, TX
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    1,806

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by 393foureyedfox View Post
    as someone already said, now's a good time to try Larceny, es0pecially with the rebates that are good for another 2 months.
    I think those rebates are KY only (or limited states). They were for $10 off a 750 or $20 off a 1.75l.

    While in KY, I purchased and then sent in my rebate. Offer is valid for United States residents only; yet HH just sent a denial on my rebate saying I lived in a state that was not eligible.

    FYI - I just sent HH a email asking about this and I'll post their response.
    Last edited by wadewood; 06-15-2013 at 05:53.

  3. #23
    Advanced Taster
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    May 2013
    Location
    Indianapolis
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    218

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by wadewood View Post
    I think those rebates are KY only (or limited states). They were for $10 off a 750 or $20 off a 1.75l.

    While in KY, I purchased and then sent in my rebate. Offer is valid for United States residents only; yet HH just sent a denial on my rebate saying I lived in a state that was not eligible.

    FYI - I just sent HH a email asking about this and I'll post their response.
    Yes, the rebate card that comes with the bottle makes no mention of being restricted to KY, but others have received the same denial that you did. Unfortunately, I can't even try because my wife threw out the receipt.

  4. #24
    Guru
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Louisville, KY
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    2,169

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by wadewood View Post
    I think those rebates are KY only (or limited states). They were for $10 off a 750 or $20 off a 1.75l.

    While in KY, I purchased and then sent in my rebate. Offer is valid for United States residents only; yet HH just sent a denial on my rebate saying I lived in a state that was not eligible.

    FYI - I just sent HH a email asking about this and I'll post their response.
    well that sucks. the rebate card says "void where prohibited, taxed, or otherwise restricted by law" but makes no mention of any specific state exemptions (guess that would deter sales in those states). Im used to seeing "void in RI" but no blankets statements like this.

  5. #25
    Moderator
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    Jul 2008
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    SW Iowa
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    3,025

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    I'm not biting I can get all the MM I want. I think this is just a come on by MM to increase sales. This whole shortage thing by the distilleries is a ploy to drive up prices to the scotch level. They are doing it step by step example we don't have EC 18 but we have EC20 for more than 2X the price. Where is the logic in that you don't have 18 yr old bourbon but have plenty of 20 year old bourbon. And 23 year old bourbons at $200.
    Normal is an illusion. What is normal to the spider, is chaos for the fly.

  6. #26
    Guru
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    Sep 2004
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    Jackson, MS
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    11,732

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quite so Paul, Pappy didn't start out as a 23 year old expression either.

  7. #27
    Disciple
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Indiana
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    1,617

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by p_elliott View Post
    I'm not biting I can get all the MM I want. I think this is just a come on by MM to increase sales. This whole shortage thing by the distilleries is a ploy to drive up prices to the scotch level. They are doing it step by step example we don't have EC 18 but we have EC20 for more than 2X the price. Where is the logic in that you don't have 18 yr old bourbon but have plenty of 20 year old bourbon. And 23 year old bourbons at $200.
    This probably expresses more concisely what I wanted to express.

    My guess is that the big retailers (Costco, Sam's, Wal-mart, etc.) are having no trouble receiving product and probably won't. What are you guys in states like KY seeing in those stores? Are these guys subject to the allocations as well? If so, what are they substituting in its place?

    I have noticed prices are changing even at the big retailers. In Indy, Sam's sold WR for $24.99 for the longest time and then bam, overnight, it jumped to $28.99. They are starting to stock more WT101, BT and Crown. Costco continues to sell WR for$23.99 and MM.

  8. #28
    Disciple
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    Jul 2012
    Location
    MOLINE,IL
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    1,755

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    I don't really see the shortage as any sort of ploy in the least,they replacement of the 90 to 84 proof and a statement to follow when the proof was resumed,all well marketed and well done I say.I'm not a MM fan in the least and their warehouses were quite barren when I was there a few months back,so if this is marketing to drive prices up it is all well done,but I don't buy it.I think MM is some of the best marketed in the biz,it will follow the market as it increases and all will follow.They don't need to continuously introduce new gimmicky products and drive their prices through the roof.MM has set their name in the market and have enough people that are new to whisky scene hooked there is no need for them to play any such shenanigans.MM and JD are so advertised and well marketed those are the only names they know and I'm sure they plan to keep it that way in the future.
    "To deny our own impulses is to deny the very thing that makes us human."
    Larry Wachowski

  9. #29

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by mbroo5880i View Post
    This probably expresses more concisely what I wanted to express.

    My guess is that the big retailers (Costco, Sam's, Wal-mart, etc.) are having no trouble receiving product and probably won't. What are you guys in states like KY seeing in those stores? Are these guys subject to the allocations as well? If so, what are they substituting in its place?

    I have noticed prices are changing even at the big retailers. In Indy, Sam's sold WR for $24.99 for the longest time and then bam, overnight, it jumped to $28.99. They are starting to stock more WT101, BT and Crown. Costco continues to sell WR for$23.99 and MM.
    On allotment means that there is still a limited amount of supply but they are rationing it. Before I could order 5 pallots of makers in 1.75Liters if i wanted to. Makers is never discounted in Kentucky on the wholesale level, so it makes no sense to buy more than 14 days worth. Sams and CostCo buy by the pallet with everything in the store. A pallet might be 2 or 3 months worth for them. They wont see a shortage until they go to reorder in a month or two.

  10. #30

    Re: Appears the Maker's shortage is real...

    Quote Originally Posted by TheOakMonster View Post
    Exactly! As a general rule, our store plans to sell through a quantity of product within about thirty days, since that's the duration of time NYS allows liquor stores to pay distributor invoices. That assures we can pay our bills and maintain positive cash-flow. Occasionally, we'll budget 20-30 cases of Jack Daniels or other top-selling liquor brand (such as Bacardi rum), because that nets the best wholesale price, and sell through that quantity over two months. But, for a vast majority of products we're carrying thirty-day supplies maximum, with two weeks being more common.
    I with 20-30 cases were the top level deals in ky. With many products lines, it is 100-150 cases. A few times a year, most brands will offer their entire portfolios at deeper discounts than normal top levels but those might be 500 case packages. Luckily most distributors allow co-ops and we can combine buying power.

    Do your distributors limit the amount of credit you can get?

 

 

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