Jump to content

Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

Recommended Posts

Well, I reckon it's about time I added my two cents......err half dollar here.<_<

 

WARNING: THREAD DRIFT! A little personal stuff before I get on my high horse. I mentioned in another thread that I'd bring a handle of Ten High KSBW to our April get together "if" I could make it down. That if was questioned, and it's looking more iffy. I've been at my job for almost 27 years, and it's finally taken its toll on me. I found out Thursday that I have a torn rotator cuff, and surgery is needed. Enough about that, and no sympathy needed. Bourbon would do nicely though. ^_^

 

On to the off thread business at hand. Many of you probably saw my post earlier this week about finally finding and buying bottles of Weller FP and CYPB. Well, I just had to send BT CEO Mark Brown an email. I sent him the same pic I posted here and said my Weller family was complete. I told him that if things worked out, I'd be down in April, and hoped to visit The Trace at that time with a few other members. I also mentioned my shoulder issue, and that it might cause problems with my plans.

 

Here's his reply.

 

Joe,

 

BOOM!  Well done!

 

Hope your shoulder is OK. 

 

Please keep us posted on any visit so that we can get the red carpet out!

 

Cheers for now,

 

Mark.

 

On each and every visit to BT, the employees there have always been great. Of course having been there so many times, you get to know a few people, and that probably helps. They might not remember your name, but you can tell they recognize you. More often than not, they smile and ask you how you're doing. A big personal shout out here goes to our own Fred Mosenter. His friendliness and enthusiasm epitomizes the culture at BT.  He never, never fails to at the very least say hi when he sees me/us, no matter how busy he is. This includes times when he may be conducting another tour. More than once we've heard "Hey guys!"  We look over and it's Fred in the middle of a tour smiling and waving. One time he must have said something to all the folks on his tour, 'cause they smiled and waved at us too. It's also fun and interesting participating in a barrel pick there. ?

 

For any of you that have never visited BT, I recommend you do so. Keep an open mind, and maybe try and learn something while you're there. Yes, I'm a Weller whore. Yes, I love BT. What can I say? It's my favorite distillery. I may not care as much for other distilleries, but I try my best not to bash them or get my digs in at them whenever I get frustrated. HH isn't my favorite distillery, but I enjoy visiting there. Yeah, I know the changes to EC and HMc were a little concerning to mean others. And Lord knows I've only seen a couple of bottles of ECBP on the shelves in my area, but you know what? In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't amount to a hill of beans. I'd rather think about my visits to HH. Especially back in the day when we were greeted by Harry Shapira with a smile and a handshake as soon as we walked in the door. Besides, Bettye Jo works there! :D

 

BT makes and sells spirits. They aren't a distributor. Distributors are partly to blame for things. BT doesn't hold back products and dole them out sparingly, or by the bottle so that liquor stores don't receive a case discount. That's what the distributors do. (More $$?) Seemingly it's distributors that have also decided to sell more bourbon/spirits to off premise accounts. Bars and restaurants are now getting a bigger piece of the pie. (Again, more $$?) BT also shouldn't be held accountable for liquor stores that, to be politically incorrect, are complete and total f**king jack offs. Yeah, y'all know what I mean. Stores that receive products that never see the light of day, and/or others that charge multiple times the suggested retail price. Examples: I just purchased a 750 ps bottle of Weller SR for $27.99. One place nearby had a ps Weller SR a while back for $49.99. One store nearby sells regular Weller SR for $45.99, while yet another has it for $89.99. Nuff Ced.

 

BT makes some pretty darned good bourbon. Their pricing ain't too bad either. They aren't the taters here. IMHO, the main problems with what is, and has been happening for a while now in the bourbon industry, lie with distributors, less than above board liquor stores and.....:huh:.

 

Now, let's have some fun. Here's a few of my favorite movie quotes. "So let it be written, so let it be done." "No brag, just fact." "Pardon me while I whip this out." "It's alive!" "Above all, forgive me for the men I've killed in anger, and those I am about to." 

 

Oops, I almost forgot a couple. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain." "The great and powerful Weller Whore has spoken."  ?  Back to our regularly scheduled program. Carry on. :P

 

Biba! Joe

 

B64855FB-625C-4039-958C-AA5875A77034_1_105_c.jpg

wbt.jpeg

P1120498.jpeg

P1120503.jpeg

  • I like it 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Easy Joe! Yer gonna throw your other shoulder out posting like that!!!

 

Great read.

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only thing I ever got mad at BT for was only making the wheated mashbill for one month a year. Which I still think was a bad decision, but let he who has never made a bad decision cast the first stone.

 

...and having a particularly cheesy general tourism video (minor offence).

 

Now they make it in bigger batches with their new expansions, so it's a BIGGER one month. (but I still want them to make the bigger batches of wheated for at least TWO months a year! In what universe does BT think that America is going to say "hol' up BT, that's just TOO MUCH OWA, W12, WLW, and VW!!!"?)

 

It's a funny way to express affection, but we only get mad at BT because their bourbon was good enough to trigger Tatergeddon, and now we're gonna get less of it for a while.

 

BT's explosive expansion is in my opinion the best thing to happen for bourbon since... probably since Jim Rutledge revolutionized 4R. Or arguably slightly more recently when SA filled their rackhouses with MGP in the early 2000s...I don't say these things lightly.

 

I have to love a company that is expanding in order ultimately to make my OWA and WLW and ORVW dreams come true. With a few GTSs and Blanton's and ETLs and RHFs and HPRs along the way...

  • I like it 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

About the BT wheated mashbill..... I went on many tours at BT. They always seemed to be distilling Mashbill #1 or Mashbill #2 when I was there.Tasting those right of the still was good, but I longed to taste the wheated recipe right off the still. Finally on one visit, they were distilling the wheated recipe. Needless to say, I was a happy camper. As a side note here, I had finished a bottle of water while on that tour. I admit I was tempted to try and sneak a fill off the still, but I didn’t want to cause problems. I did however decide to buy a 375 of the wheated white dog at a liquor store not too far away from the distillery.  ;)
 

Biba! Joe

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, fishnbowljoe said:

About the BT wheated mashbill..... I went on many tours at BT. They always seemed to be distilling Mashbill #1 or Mashbill #2 when I was there.Tasting those right of the still was good, but I longed to taste the wheated recipe right off the still. Finally on one visit, they were distilling the wheated recipe. Needless to say, I was a happy camper. As a side note here, I had finished a bottle of water while on that tour. I admit I was tempted to try and sneak a fill off the still, but I didn’t want to cause problems. 
 

Biba! Joe

THAT....would created a SB.COM interpretation of "whiskey thief". ??

 

Prost!!   Phil 

Edited by Phil T
  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

About the BT wheated mashbill..... I went on many tours at BT. They always seemed to be distilling Mashbill #1 or Mashbill #2 when I was there.Tasting those right of the still was good, but I longed to taste the wheated recipe right off the still. Finally on one visit, they were distilling the wheated recipe. Needless to say, I was a happy camper. As a side note here, I had finished a bottle of water while on that tour. I admit I was tempted to try and sneak a fill off the still, but I didn’t want to cause problems. I did however decide to buy a 375 of the wheated white dog at a liquor store not too far away from the distillery.  ;)
 

Biba! Joe

Well?  How was it?  Did you at least get out of the parking lot before finishing it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

 

WARNING: THREAD DRIFT! A little personal stuff before I get on my high horse. I mentioned in another thread that I'd bring a handle of Ten High KSBW to our April get together "if" I could make it down. That if was questioned, and it's looking more iffy. I've been at my job for almost 27 years, and it's finally taken its toll on me. I found out Thursday that I have a torn rotator cuff, and surgery is needed. Enough about that, and no sympathy needed. Bourbon would do nicely though. ^_^

 

 

Well heck - if you ain't goin', I'm not goin'!   ?

 

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/24/2020 at 4:59 PM, flahute said:

Thanks for the info. SA said on twitter that they were waiting for them to age but clearly they are releasing some now based on your local.

the recent batched SAOS at 99 proof is MGP again.  I'm pretty sure it's 5 years old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joe raises some good points about bad actors among the middle men in the three tier system.

I hope TBT's future forecasts come to be.  I used to enjoy some of the BT products.

My honest assessment is Weller Antique and W 12 are both worth a modest premium over standard Maker's Mark.  

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

DISCUS reporting that case sales of American whiskey accelerated at an even faster rate in 2019.  An extra 2,000,000 9 liter cases sold in 2019 v 2018.  26,500,000 cases v 24,500,000.  These numbers reflect that consumer demand remains very high for bourbon, and tells me the Boom is still with us.  

451A2475-E088-4648-9FA2-E89EB3F77A7C.png

  • I like it 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

DISCUS reporting that case sales of American whiskey accelerated at an even faster rate in 2019.  An extra 2,000,000 9 liter cases sold in 2019 v 2018.  26,500,000 cases v 24,500,000.  These numbers reflect that consumer demand remains very high for bourbon, and tells me the Boom is still with us.  

451A2475-E088-4648-9FA2-E89EB3F77A7C.png

If I'm reading that right, the increases all came in the "premium" and higher categories with an actual decline in "value" labels.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Clueby said:

If I'm reading that right, the increases all came in the "premium" and higher categories with an actual decline in "value" labels.

That is correct.  
Edited to add the representative labels and supplier price points at each category.  

E6665E8D-F42C-4930-A9F7-29D28CEC606A.png

Edited by smokinjoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

That is correct.  
Edited to add the representative labels and supplier price points at each category.  

 

image.png.0dde6045c5413b9ca7f8bfaf4f1fa4ea.png  Not exactly what I think of when I think "Premium". :)

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Clueby said:

image.png.0dde6045c5413b9ca7f8bfaf4f1fa4ea.png  Not exactly what I think of when I think "Premium". :)

Heehee!  The dollar values that they assign to each category have been a joke for years!  I thought I read that these were going to be updated to reflect valuations that are closer to current market, but I don't know if that is actually on the table.  OTOH, I'm sure Beam tour guides will tout JBW as Premium!  :D

 

Edited by smokinjoe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I laughed out loud when I saw expensive bottles like KY Owl and Heaven's Door at Meijer, but the next time I went there, they were gone. ? Now they have JD #27 for a c note plus tax.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/17/2020 at 4:24 PM, Clueby said:

image.png.0dde6045c5413b9ca7f8bfaf4f1fa4ea.png  Not exactly what I think of when I think "Premium". :)

Exactly what I was thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/17/2020 at 10:15 AM, smokinjoe said:

DISCUS reporting that case sales of American whiskey accelerated at an even faster rate in 2019.  An extra 2,000,000 9 liter cases sold in 2019 v 2018.  26,500,000 cases v 24,500,000.  These numbers reflect that consumer demand remains very high for bourbon, and tells me the Boom is still with us.  

 

I think reading into this much can be misleading. The "boom" perhaps is due to not enough supply of some of the 'Super Premium' brands. That there are more cases of super premium being sold might just be a sign that supply is catching up to demand and not that demand has increased. Also I find it heartening that the increase in supply of the Super Premium category is numerically and percentage-wise larger than all the prior years (2014 was a bigger percentage increase). Assuming demand is not really growing perhaps we are reaching an inflection point where quality bourbons will start being available again. For what it is worth, I find it much easier this last year or so to pick up bottles that I used to have trouble finding (e.g. Elijah Craig Barrel Proof, Barrell, etc). Besides this, I see more and more, even in stores that never had them, somewhere on the top shelf for a ridiculous price a bottle of Pappy or some other hard to get bourbon. Sooner or later once  everyone has been able to decorate with bottles, they are going to have to start selling them.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, matt777 said:

I think reading into this much can be misleading. The "boom" perhaps is due to not enough supply of some of the 'Super Premium' brands. That there are more cases of super premium being sold might just be a sign that supply is catching up to demand and not that demand has increased. Also I find it heartening that the increase in supply of the Super Premium category is numerically and percentage-wise larger than all the prior years (2014 was a bigger percentage increase). Assuming demand is not really growing perhaps we are reaching an inflection point where quality bourbons will start being available again. For what it is worth, I find it much easier this last year or so to pick up bottles that I used to have trouble finding (e.g. Elijah Craig Barrel Proof, Barrell, etc). Besides this, I see more and more, even in stores that never had them, somewhere on the top shelf for a ridiculous price a bottle of Pappy or some other hard to get bourbon. Sooner or later once  everyone has been able to decorate with bottles, they are going to have to start selling them.

My take on some of this is that demand can be (and has been) built by limiting product availability, while hyping the hell out of the fact that it is so damned hard to find, and thus so desirable.  (FOMO is real and worx wonders for the super premiums brands, especially if the availability is controlled.)    This strategy has been aided quite a bit by the fanboys (& fangirls, I suppose) all over the internet, which has become a main vehicle for hyperbole... and FREE advertising!   I predict that all this will be perpetuated for a good while yet.   When supply of something becomes too great (levels with demand?), and whenever the taters find something else to chase (maybe never?) the trend will moderate.  ...I hope.

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, matt777 said:

I think reading into this much can be misleading. The "boom" perhaps is due to not enough supply of some of the 'Super Premium' brands. That there are more cases of super premium being sold might just be a sign that supply is catching up to demand and not that demand has increased. Also I find it heartening that the increase in supply of the Super Premium category is numerically and percentage-wise larger than all the prior years (2014 was a bigger percentage increase). Assuming demand is not really growing perhaps we are reaching an inflection point where quality bourbons will start being available again. For what it is worth, I find it much easier this last year or so to pick up bottles that I used to have trouble finding (e.g. Elijah Craig Barrel Proof, Barrell, etc). Besides this, I see more and more, even in stores that never had them, somewhere on the top shelf for a ridiculous price a bottle of Pappy or some other hard to get bourbon. Sooner or later once  everyone has been able to decorate with bottles, they are going to have to start selling them.

Demand has been growing for years.  The boom is real.  It will end.  It has not yet.  

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Kepler said:

I'm not sure how, why, or to what extent, but I feel this plays into this subject somehow:

 

https://www.whiskeyriff.com/2017/07/31/10-reasons-every-guy-wants-the-girl-that-sips-whiskey/

 

 

 

 

I like the girls drinking whiskey through a straw :rolleyes:, that's normally how everyone drinks their whiskey...….. right. 

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.