Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Kepler]

44 minutes ago, jvd99 said:

If this place has a market for high end bourbon, how are bottles from several years ago still on the bar?  You may be completely correct in your assessment that they're 100% legit, but that selection screams red flags for me.  Just one person's point of view.

I don't know for a fact that they are 100% legit (no inside contracts and I'm not a regular customer) but the owners have a huge network of restaurants across all the large cities in Texas and believe me, they have a lot more to lose in reputation than any measly gain they might get by pulling the wool over a few bourbon drinkers' eyes.  

Steve is right; price it high enough and it sits around awhile.  I don't remember all the prices but I think I saw several $75 pours.  There were some $25 pours as well, but I passed on all of them.  I didn't have any money left after I ordered a couple of bottles of wine for the table and some of those expensive steaks!! 

[The Black Tot]

Texas used to be incredible value for dinner and drinks. It seems in the last two years like it's really shot up in price.  I can remember getting out of some places with bills that were literally half of what they cost now.

 

At the same time, some bar owners have taken it upon themselves to force their staff to measure pours with a jigger. In TEXAS. I can't stand that in places where it's the LAW, much less when it's just the freedom of choice to be stingy.

 

I just spent two nights in Las Palmas on my way out to a nasty little job. But it was nice to see a place where for 4 euros or less the bartender inverts those bottles and just keeps a' pourin'

 

Spanish culture is going to be the only place left for generous pours soon enough, apart from our houses of course.

[Nm0369]

I went to my first "Pappy raffle" of the year today.  My lone ticket wasn't selected and I left empty-handed.  There were easily 300 to 400 people there for about 20 bottles of PVW & BTAC.  Good on Vine & Table for selling at retail prices, but c'mon...no samples or snacks were provided.  It was almost like a tailgate with people drinking in the parking lot prior to the raffle.

[The Black Tot]

18 minutes ago, Nm0369 said:

I went to my first "Pappy raffle" of the year today.  My lone ticket wasn't selected and I left empty-handed.  There were easily 300 to 400 people there for about 20 bottles of PVW & BTAC.  Good on Vine & Table for selling at retail prices, but c'mon...no samples or snacks were provided.  It was almost like a tailgate with people drinking in the parking lot prior to the raffle.

That will be a good story 10yrs from now when increased production has us awash in the stuff.

[smokinjoe]

4 hours ago, Nm0369 said:

I went to my first "Pappy raffle" of the year today.  My lone ticket wasn't selected and I left empty-handed.  There were easily 300 to 400 people there for about 20 bottles of PVW & BTAC.  Good on Vine & Table for selling at retail prices, but c'mon...no samples or snacks were provided.  It was almost like a tailgate with people drinking in the parking lot prior to the raffle.

Heck, I might've just shown up for the tailgating even without a ticket.    I have spent worse Saturdays.  

[BigRich]

Heck, I might've just shown up for the tailgating even without a ticket.  [emoji4]  I have spent worse Saturdays.  

I do miss those tailgates at the cigar place down the street. [emoji853]


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[TheOakMonster]

Found this quote in an alcohol industry publication:

 

“When it comes to traditional Bourbon and craft brands, we want to have as many as possible available and see how everything plays out. In terms of shelf space, we’re now about 50-50 craft versus mainstream,” says Brett Pontoni, spirits buyer for Chicago-based retail giant Binny’s Beverage Depot, which operates 35 stores. “In terms of sales, it’s still 80% traditional brands. But a year ago, that ratio was 90% traditional and 10% craft, so the increase in craft has been dramatic.”

 

Thought that was interesting.  Binny's is devoting a ton of space to craft products but they really aren't adding much to store actual sales. But I nonetheless, I do worry about the promotion and perceived legitimacy granting extra shelf grants these products.

 

Personally, I think overpriced and underwhelming crafts are the biggest threat to the long-term health of the American whiskey market. I think the massive influx of new drinkers will quickly be turned-off and discouraged by mediocre whiskeys. I WANT new drinkers to join the hobby. I really do. I WANT the new drinkers to enjoy the journey, just as I did. So, it's unfortunate when new drinkers get hoodwinked into spending good money on mediocre whiskey. It only takes a few bad experiences to turn-off new drinkers forever.

[The Black Tot]

For the most point, crafts are going to get their arses kicked when the majors' increased production reaches maturity and the market - at low prices that the small guys can't afford to charge because they don't have the economies of scale of the big boys.

Edited October 15, 2017 by The Black Tot

[DCFan]

8 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

For the most point, crafts are going to get their arses kicked when the majors' increased production reaches maturity and the market - at low prices that the small guys can't afford to charge because they don't have the economies of scale of the big boys.

The big guys (the unspoken producer is BT) are never going to achieve production levels that put their products 10 deep on shelves like Beam and JD are. They like having a certain amount of pent up demand with their products and will release it to still keep it in demand.  In addition you're discounting the number of bourbon drinkers who are a) now devoted lovers of their craft bourbon (think Budweiser and their losses to craft beers, those drinkers aren't coming back) and 2) still pissed off that they were never able to make the big score with the unicorns.

[The Black Tot]

While it's true that no one is as big as Beam, 10 deep BT product, even Weller, is certainly likely to return.

 

No business that wants to stay in business prefers pent up demand to sales.

 

Beer has almost the polar opposite connotations with the word craft. In beer, craft means higher quality, and Bud is Bud. In Bourbon, the majors make high quality whiskey and the craft stuff is underaged NDP. People will come running back to the majors when their stuff is ready.

 

As pissed off as many people claim to be with BT for their allocations, they still don't say no when offered a W12

[DCFan]

33 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

As pissed off as many people claim to be with BT for their allocations, they still don't say no when offered a W12

I thought I hit the jackpot when I stumbled across some OWA that the Va ABC had gotten in courtesy of word of mouth here from another SB'r. I paid roughly MSRP which I believe was around $24. I was so freaking proud that I had gotten my hands on what I thought would be the nectar of the Gods. Boy was I disappointed. The screw cap should've been the first sign. Tasting it nailed that point home. I don't see what the hoop dee doo about Wellers is all about (at least OWA). So I'm not driving 14 hours round trip like Gorzo did (I believe that was him) to score some Wellers products. If I stumble across some W12 at MSRP I'll bite but I'm not hunting and I'm not paying a markup.

 

Now onto carfts.  Let's look at scotch for instance.  I was just checking sales of the top 10 selling scotches.  All but 2 are down (Peel and Ballantines) from their previous high sales listed (it only showed the previous 5 years). Now I don't know because I'm not in the alcohol business from any side of it but I suspect that the biggies have lost sales to the crafts which I would define as the single malts.  Johnny Walker ain't getting those buyers back!

 

So my researching for the day is done  but I suspect I'd find the same results with vodka, rum, gin, and beer. Alcohol consumers have shown across the board that they are ready, willing an able to try other more expensive options and will not be going back to the old standbys now or ever. So IMHO Weller missed the boom and they are a day late and a dollar short with their increased production of screw cap offerings.  The end. 

[JoeTerp]

14 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

For the most point, crafts are going to get their arses kicked when the majors' increased production reaches maturity and the market - at low prices that the small guys can't afford to charge because they don't have the economies of scale of the big boys.

I just don't see that ever happening.  And I don't think the majors even want to.  I think they would rather buy up the craft brands and expand production then beat them out by undercutting on price.  

 

And the real reason I think craft is here forever is that people who have enough disposable income and want to try bourbon or rye or whatever would rather pay $50 a bottle than $15 to try something that is perceived as better.  Us bourbon nerds are a tiny fraction of consumption.  I've never seen a single positive thing said about Baby Bourbon on the internet and that stuff sells.  I know I've met people who really like it too.

[The Black Tot]

11 hours ago, DCFan said:

I thought I hit the jackpot when I stumbled across some OWA that the Va ABC had gotten in courtesy of word of mouth here from another SB'r. I paid roughly MSRP which I believe was around $24. I was so freaking proud that I had gotten my hands on what I thought would be the nectar of the Gods. Boy was I disappointed. The screw cap should've been the first sign. Tasting it nailed that point home. I don't see what the hoop dee doo about Wellers is all about (at least OWA). So I'm not driving 14 hours round trip like Gorzo did (I believe that was him) to score some Wellers products. If I stumble across some W12 at MSRP I'll bite but I'm not hunting and I'm not paying a markup.

 

Now onto carfts.  Let's look at scotch for instance.  I was just checking sales of the top 10 selling scotches.  All but 2 are down (Peel and Ballantines) from their previous high sales listed (it only showed the previous 5 years). Now I don't know because I'm not in the alcohol business from any side of it but I suspect that the biggies have lost sales to the crafts which I would define as the single malts.  Johnny Walker ain't getting those buyers back!

 

So my researching for the day is done  but I suspect I'd find the same results with vodka, rum, gin, and beer. Alcohol consumers have shown across the board that they are ready, willing an able to try other more expensive options and will not be going back to the old standbys now or ever. So IMHO Weller missed the boom and they are a day late and a dollar short with their increased production of screw cap offerings.  The end. 

If you're not kidding about judging whiskey by its closure, this is a grievous error. 

 

Also you would be wise not to judge a famous whiskey from one batch during a period where the product is going out the door at a younger age than normal due to inventory strain.

 

Lastly, Single Malts are again a genuine quality improvement over blended whisky, just like craft beer vs Budweiser. Properly aged bourbon made by the majors is higher quality than most NDP barely legal bourbon being hawked by the bourbon crafters at high prices to get us to pay for their stills and new warehouses, etc. The big old stills and warehouses at the majors are already paid for.

 

The small guys simply cannot make whiskey of that quality for the price that the established large distilleries can.

[Richnimrod]

11 hours ago, DCFan said:

I thought I hit the jackpot when I stumbled across some OWA that the Va ABC had gotten in courtesy of word of mouth here from another SB'r. I paid roughly MSRP which I believe was around $24. I was so freaking proud that I had gotten my hands on what I thought would be the nectar of the Gods. Boy was I disappointed. The screw cap should've been the first sign. Tasting it nailed that point home. I don't see what the hoop dee doo about Wellers is all about (at least OWA). So I'm not driving 14 hours round trip like Gorzo did (I believe that was him) to score some Wellers products. If I stumble across some W12 at MSRP I'll bite but I'm not hunting and I'm not paying a markup.

 

Now onto carfts.  Let's look at scotch for instance.  I was just checking sales of the top 10 selling scotches.  All but 2 are down (Peel and Ballantines) from their previous high sales listed (it only showed the previous 5 years). Now I don't know because I'm not in the alcohol business from any side of it but I suspect that the biggies have lost sales to the crafts which I would define as the single malts.  Johnny Walker ain't getting those buyers back!

 

So my researching for the day is done  but I suspect I'd find the same results with vodka, rum, gin, and beer. Alcohol consumers have shown across the board that they are ready, willing an able to try other more expensive options and will not be going back to the old standbys now or ever. So IMHO Weller missed the boom and they are a day late and a dollar short with their increased production of screw cap offerings.  The end. 

Hmmm. Wow!   You, sir, are wrong on pretty much all of this.... IMHO.    You're calling single malt scotch a 'craft' offering?   Huh?

Your failure to love Weller offerings is, of course, your own business; and I'm sure others share your lack of love for 'em; but a large portion of the Bourbon aficionados with whom I'm familiar do not agree with you.    Certainly, personal preferences never need justification, nor are they easily explained; and shouldn't be.   One likes what one likes.    One dislikes what one dislikes.     That's just how the world is. 

As far as Weller brands 'missing the boom'; I'm not sure how you arrive at that conclusion.    If Weller brands were languishing on store shelves, perhaps I'd agree; but the opposite is true, as far as I can tell.

Edited October 16, 2017 by Richnimrod

[The Black Tot]

6 hours ago, JoeTerp said:

I just don't see that ever happening.  And I don't think the majors even want to.  I think they would rather buy up the craft brands and expand production then beat them out by undercutting on price.  

 

And the real reason I think craft is here forever is that people who have enough disposable income and want to try bourbon or rye or whatever would rather pay $50 a bottle than $15 to try something that is perceived as better.  Us bourbon nerds are a tiny fraction of consumption.  I've never seen a single positive thing said about Baby Bourbon on the internet and that stuff sells.  I know I've met people who really like it too.

Many of the little guys who bought their stills on credit will indeed be folding and selling cheap when the majors catch up. However, even the majors can't operate a small still cost effectively. There isn't much benefit to hoovering up a bunch of small distilleries that will struggle to turn a profit. 100x low profit margin is just a larger pool of low profit margin.

 

What they are far more likely to do is buy out their barrels of whiskey that already have a 4-5yr head start on maturation.

 

Some of the little guys of course actually WILL hit on some really innovative whiskey and there are certainly going to be opportunities to get some good stuff for those who are willing to explore. There's going to be a lot of dogs to go through to find the gems though, I'd suspect. Doing everything right straight out of the gate is not the most likely of scenarios for these start ups.

 

Status buys keeping overpriced craft alive? Maybe. It works for some wines with the gimmicky bottles and names. But the status guys once prices get over 50 can just as easily play in the Scotch aisle.

Edited October 16, 2017 by The Black Tot

[Paddy]

14 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

If you're not kidding about judging whiskey by its closure, this is a grievous error. 

 

 

....as I currently sip on an old, screw cap, PS KCSB from '13.

 

I (probably not for one), wish KC would go back to the screw cap.  Easier open/pour/close, and no worries about cork taint/failure.

Edited October 16, 2017 by Paddy

[The Black Tot]

1 minute ago, Paddy said:

....as I currently sip on a old, screw cap, PS KCSB from '13.

 

I (probably not for one), wish KC would go back to the screw cap.  Easier open/pour/close, and no worries about cork taint/failure.

My actual preference is synthetic cork, but it's not by the kind of margin that would put me off buying anything.

 

I've cracked my share of screw caps by overtightening them.

[Richnimrod]

2 minutes ago, Paddy said:

....as I currently sip on an old, screw cap, PS KCSB from '13.

 

I (probably not for one), wish KC would go back to the screw cap.  Easier open/pour/close, and no worries about cork taint/failure.

^^^ This!    I'm not sure why anybody would prefer a cork over a screw cap, although some have apparently had issues with metal caps.    I never have had problems with 'em.

[Charlutz]

I was in a group of 10 couples or so of people in their mid thirties, many of whom liked whiskey but weren't well educated on the subject. When I said "generally craft whiskey is the opposite of craft beer" and explained about the centuries of learning that went into making good whiskey as opposed to beer which can be drinkable in a couple weeks it was like I was explaining the discovery of gravity. It suddenly made sense to them but they were nonetheless surprised to hear it. Craft whiskey has a lot of time plus high startup costs to overcome. If the boom dies and less novices are in stores buying fancy labels there are going to be a lot of craft distilleries crashing. 

[Paddy]

3 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

My actual preference is synthetic cork, but it's not by the kind of margin that would put me off buying anything.

 

I've cracked my share of screw caps by overtightening them.

Amateur!

 

LOL

[mbroo5880i]

8 minutes ago, Paddy said:

....as I currently sip on an old, screw cap, PS KCSB from '13.

 

I (probably not for one), wish KC would go back to the screw cap.  Easier open/pour/close, and no worries about cork taint/failure.

Interesting.  I remember my first WL12.  The price and the screw cap threw me off on what to expect.  I learned a lesson that day on both counts.  I much prefer screw caps but I do prefer plastic over metal. 

[The Black Tot]

14 minutes ago, Paddy said:

Amateur!

 

LOL

If it wasn't for my paranoia I wouldn't have a bunker!

Edited October 16, 2017 by The Black Tot

[fishnbowljoe]

I can' t remember the member here who said it, but I wish it was me. While my quote may not quite be 100% accurate, I think y'all will get the gist of it. "Weller's are the best bourbons that come with screw caps."   I believe this may have been said late one night while in the chat room here with a number of other members. 

 

Cheers! Joe

[Kane]

On the topic of Wellers... Don't you guys think that there is a HUUUUGE jump in quality from OWA to W12? Or is it just me? I mean, I completely understand when people taste OWA and are underwhelmed, it is decent bourbon all right, but W12 is the nectar of gods.

[The Black Tot]

11 minutes ago, Kane said:

On the topic of Wellers... Don't you guys think that there is a HUUUUGE jump in quality from OWA to W12? Or is it just me? I mean, I completely understand when people taste OWA and are underwhelmed, it is decent bourbon all right, but W12 is the nectar of gods.

I think I WOULD feel that way if W12 was 107 proof. 

 

I don't think BT wheated bourbon pops properly below 100 proof.

 

I like both, but would prefer a good OWA to W12, based purely on the added flavor density of higher proof.

 

Having said that, there have been some mediocre OWAs released during the inventory strain years. Great ones are still happening, but not like one could count on in the (probably above age statement) mid 00s. I can understand how they might not be everyone's darling at this point in history.