Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[DCFan]

8 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I take your point and restricted to Weller it has some merit. In my mind though, the scarcity of W12 and OWA has also contributed to the demand for all things BT - ER, RHF, ETL, regular BT, WSR, Blanton's, EHT, etc. Only Stagg Jr. seems to have escaped (thankfully). BT didn't miss the boom. Everything they make gets sold, they make a LOT, and their retail prices are fair. Sure, they could have gouged for W12 but I am thankful they didn't. 

Charlie, thanks for reminding me that I'm derelict in reporting my intro to bourbon and Wellers as I promised the Commodore earlier today. 

 

I'm 63 years old and up until about 3 years ago bourbon was whatever the bar/restaurant had on their bottom shelf for a whiskey sour, high ball, etc or if I wanted to go uptown then it was either Jim Beam or JD.  Uptown, right?  I enjoyed beer and wine more than liquor which was why I never pursued the higher shelf stuff.

 

But 3 years ago I got the TV series Justified on DVD. Loved it and was really intrigued with the bourbons that were heavily profiled on the show, the main star being PVW. Was ist das Pappy Van Winkle I kept asking myself.  Enter google. 

 

I quickly found it was listed almost always in everyones top 10 or top 20 bourbon lists.  Further research showed that Wellers was part of the BT empire with one writer saying (I'm paraphrasing here) you're not going to find PVW but if you want to try the juice that didn't make the cut to be PVW then find Wellers which is a little easier to track down. I'm sure that plenty other people worldwide were reading the same type stories with the hunt being widened to include most all of the BT products since Wellers is damned near impossible to find.

 

I'm sure the bourbon boom was well underway when I jumped in but that's where I'm coming from.

[flahute]

8 hours ago, DCFan said:

 Single malts are crafts (micro) in the sense that they produce a fraction of what the big boys produce.

My Knob Creek Single Barrel is a craft whiskey because it's the only barrel like it.

[DCFan]

7 minutes ago, flahute said:

My Knob Creek Single Barrel is a craft whiskey because it's the only barrel like it.

You bring up a good point. Are there any single malts that aren’t part of some gigantic corporate empire like Diageo or something else like it? That could shoot a huge hole in my argument. 

[Charlutz]

52 minutes ago, Clueby said:

BT hasn't gouged but retailers in this market continue to do so. The last OWA I saw was $99 and W12 was $199 just last week.  OWA and W12 still don't see the light of day here on a shelf.  I think we are still a couple years away from limited to regular availability. And what you said about Stagg Jr. doesn't necessarily translate to every market either.  You probably won't find a bottle in the St. Louis market.  It has shown with more regularity over the last 6 months however.

I don't disagree but your post addresses the thread "ongoing observations about the boom" and not the little tangent that DCFan, Black Tot and I were taking on whether BT missed the boom. They've made a lot of whiskey and sold it all. They didn't miss nuthin'. They maybe elected to not make as much money as they could've to the benefit of some retailers and the secondary market but I've got no quarrel with their strategy. 

[The Black Tot]

To BT's credit they were among the first of the majors to bite the bullet and START expanding, when everyone else was still skittish about it.

 

These prediction threads are no fun unless you make a bold statement people can reference later, so:

 

OWA will be regularly on shelves in most markets by March 2019. 

[DCFan]

8 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I don't disagree but your post addresses the thread "ongoing observations about the boom" and not the little tangent that DCFan, Black Tot and I were taking on whether BT missed the boom. They've made a lot of whiskey and sold it all. They didn't miss nuthin'. They maybe elected to not make as much money as they could've to the benefit of some retailers and the secondary market but I've got no quarrel with their strategy. 

I’ll cut in here. They most definitely missed the boom. God only knows how much more they could have sold if they had increased capacity years earlier. It’s a case study for some MBA students. But you are definitely right in that they held the line on price increases which they surely could have.

[Clueby]

8 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I don't disagree but your post addresses the thread "ongoing observations about the boom" and not the little tangent that DCFan, Black Tot and I were taking on whether BT missed the boom. They've made a lot of whiskey and sold it all. They didn't miss nuthin'. They maybe elected to not make as much money as they could've to the benefit of some retailers and the secondary market but I've got no quarrel with their strategy. 

Point taken.  Yes..they absolutely could have "taken advantage" of the situation and raised prices and possibly NOT ramped up production as much.  Pretty much no matter how much they've made that will come to maturity in the next 5 years will be sold with little to no problem. It almost markets itself.  It's interesting to see the heavy advertising lately for bourbon (JB, WT, Tincup, etc.).  Haven't seen much from BT other than a pretty heavy social media presence. 

[Charlutz]

57 minutes ago, DCFan said:

*** clipped by Charlutz for readability - lots of good points re getting into the hobby in the last few years and unable to find BT wheateds ***

 

I'm sure the bourbon boom was well underway when I jumped in but that's where I'm coming from.

I hear ya. I searched for 5 years before I found my first W12 on a shelf this year. I had been lucky enough to find WSR and OWA regularly. It's out there. Best thing is to try in bars. If you don't find any during the fall releases and don't mind driving to Howard Co., we Maryland folks can host a meet and greet so you can try them and at least figure out if the hype is worth it to you.  And if nothing else, my avatar should indicate my approval of your love of Justified. 

 

PS - try the movie Get Shorty. It's also an Elmore Leonard adaptation and has same speech patterns and style of dialogue. As are Alec Baldwin in Miami Blues and Clooney/J-Lo in Out of Sight. 

[The Black Tot]

2 minutes ago, DCFan said:

I’ll cut in here. They most definitely missed the boom. God only knows how much more they could have sold if they had increased capacity years earlier. It’s a case study for some MBA students. 

I agree. The thesis would be:

 

"Major opportunities for distilleries who can see the future. Especially ones who in recent memory suffered losses from an equally unpredictable glut"

[DCFan]

1 minute ago, The Black Tot said:

I agree. The thesis would be:

 

"Major opportunities for distilleries who can see the future. Especially ones who in recent memory suffered losses from an equally unpredictable glut"

Being able to see the future is what makes or breaks everyone. Float it by one of your old Annapolis profs and get that study going. 

[The Black Tot]

1 minute ago, DCFan said:

Being able to see the future is what makes or breaks everyone. Float it by one of your old Annapolis profs and get that study going. 

 

I don't want to staunch the fun you're having with this, but I'm not in the Navy  I'm in the oil biz. Which also about 5 years ago could have used some of your future predicting industry guidance.

 

If only they'd realized the value of this future prediction thing...

[DCFan]

8 minutes ago, Charlutz said:

I hear ya. I searched for 5 years before I found my first W12 on a shelf this year. I had been lucky enough to find WSR and OWA regularly. It's out there. Best thing is to try in bars. If you don't find any during the fall releases and don't mind driving to Howard Co., we Maryland folks can host a meet and greet so you can try them and at least figure out if the hype is worth it to you.  And if nothing else, my avatar should indicate my approval of your love of Justified. 

 

PS - try the movie Get Shorty. It's also an Elmore Leonard adaptation and has same speech patterns and style of dialogue. As are Alec Baldwin in Miami Blues and Clooney/J-Lo in Out of Sight. 

Living in ABC-land I quickly found out that chasing Weller was an exercise in futility and gave up that ghost. But BT and Blantons are around enough so I’m very satisfied. And I’m always game for a meet up.

[DCFan]

3 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

 

I don't want to staunch the fun you're having with this, but I'm not in the Navy  I'm in the oil biz. Which also about 5 years ago could have used some of your future predicting industry guidance.

 

If only they'd realized the value of this future prediction thing...

Aye aye skipper. 

[lcpfratn]

You bring up a good point. Are there any single malts that aren’t part of some gigantic corporate empire like Diageo or something else like it? That could shoot a huge hole in my argument. [emoji33]

There are lots of holes in your argument that single malts are "Craft", but I'll just leave it at that.


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[jvd99]

2 hours ago, DCFan said:

You bring up a good point. Are there any single malts that aren’t part of some gigantic corporate empire like Diageo or something else like it? That could shoot a huge hole in my argument. 

Not any good ones...    Just kidding.  Kilchoman distillery could be considered craft.  It was started in 2005, built from scratch on Islay, and is owned or founded by an individual.  To my knowledge, it's not owned by a conglomerate.  I've had a few tastes and its putting out very high quality products.  (I know this is way off topic)

 

 

[kevinbrink]

I'm not positive BT would have sold more bourbon if it wasn't allocated, I think the scarcity has helped it's reputation. People get worked up when Beam and HH products lose their age statements but bunker tons of NAS BT stuff like it's gold.

[The Black Tot]

22 minutes ago, kevinbrink said:

I'm not positive BT would have sold more bourbon if it wasn't allocated, I think the scarcity has helped it's reputation. People get worked up when Beam and HH products lose their age statements but bunker tons of NAS BT stuff like it's gold.

I don't think that demand for BT wheat and MB#2 was caused by the allocation.

 

It was the "I know my stuff because I'm a wheater man, and this is the same juice as Pappy" bandwagon.

 

Remember, the allocation did not preceed the craze for this stuff, the craze caused the allocations.

 

The mashbill 2 stuff spread like a virus outward from the ETL craze, brought on sadly by the attention brought by Mr Lee's passing. Once you couldn't get ETL, it was the same "this is the same juice as ETL" phenomenon as the "this is the same juice as Pappy" that hit the Weller line.

 

The allocations HAVE caused FOMO anxiety which will result in bunker building and increased sales in the short term while ramped up supply progressively hits the market, but eventually people will drink down their bunkers, which results in a period of BELOW average sales, since everyone with a bunker doesn't have to buy OWA for a year or more if they've already got a 12 case. The long term end result is sales that equal the rate at which OWA is consumed - unless you consider the psychological "Costco factor" where if you have something in bulk you are more likely to use it more liberally/wastefully, which would ultimately increase consumption of OWA above normal for people with bunkers. 

 

BT's real concern now is that bunker building keeps their products out of the hand of the one bottle at a time drinker, and they don't want to lose those drinkers to another brand while they wait. This is why they throw so much Weller at Texas - Texans have been in the habit of drinking Weller for years, and when the markets get tough again, it's the habitual customers who keep your bottom line afloat. The guys who have Weller and Weller ONLY on their bar. Not the bourbonistas who have 50 opens and only drink their Weller once or twice a month, who only need one replacement every year.

 

HH had Larceny and Old Fitz, but they never had "the same juice as Pappy". 

 

If Beam or HH had a regular product that was "the same juice as Parker's Heritage" or "the same juice as Booker's Rye", it would get slammed the same way. But Parker's Heritage is a moving target because it changes every year and while Beam knocks the occasional limited release out of the park they don't have anything that is reliably annual to provide the foundation for a "run on the same mashbill" campaign either. 

Edited October 19, 2017 by The Black Tot

[flahute]

^^^^^^This guy right here knows what he's talking about.

[lcpfratn]

^^^^^^This guy right here knows what he's talking about.

Paul has almost written a book in this thread lately. And he's been like an experienced carpenter...hitting all the nails on the head!


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[The Black Tot]

It's the Pappy Van Winkle of threads.

[Kane]

1 minute ago, The Black Tot said:

It's the Pappy Van Winkle of threads.

Much hype, all fluff?

[mosugoji64]

13 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

OWA will be regularly on shelves in most markets by March 2019. 

 

I'm holding you to your word, Paul! You owe me a bottle if that's not the case 

[musekatcher]

28 minutes ago, mosugoji64 said:

 

I'm holding you to your word, Paul! You owe me a bottle if that's not the case 

I did really enjoy OWA <$20, but that was over 2 years ago. When it reaches our shelves in droves come March 2019, it may likely be over $30, maybe even over $40.  That may change the  PTQ.  Plus, my unopened vintage 2014 will be superior anyway

[DCFan]

9 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

The allocations HAVE caused FOMO anxiety which will result in bunker building and increased sales in the short term while ramped up supply progressively hits the market, but eventually people will drink down their bunkers, which results in a period of BELOW average sales, since everyone with a bunker doesn't have to buy OWA for a year or more if they've already got a 12 case. The long term end result is sales that equal the rate at which OWA is consumed - unless you consider the psychological "Costco factor" where if you have something in bulk you are more likely to use it more liberally/wastefully, which would ultimately increase consumption of OWA above normal for people with bunkers.  

I don't expect you or anybody else to know off the top of your head but this whole concept of bunkering (you mentioned having a case of 12), I don't think it's all that prevalent across the fruited plain. I'm guessing the everyday guy has a few bottles of hooch in his bar or cabinet in the kitchen with no backups stockpiled. This is the kinda guy that is very content with a single bottle of OGD or Old Crow. In a country with ~320 mil people there are undoubtedly a good number of stockpilers/bunkerers/hoarders but enough to skew the marketplace? 

 

I liked the Costco psychological factor. 

[The Black Tot]

11 minutes ago, DCFan said:

I don't expect you or anybody else to know off the top of your head but this whole concept of bunkering (you mentioned having a case of 12), I don't think it's all that prevalent across the fruited plain.

I agree it's not the everyman who is bunker building, but there are enough of them.

 

Don't take my word for it -  go to the stores that got OWA barrels and didn't have limits. Ask the staff how many people bought multiples or a 6 case.