Jump to content

Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, PaulO said:

I saw a television commercial for Wild Turkey on one of the major networks during Sunday NFL football.

All right, all right, all right......

 

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are a couple observations...
  I saw a television commercial for Wild Turkey on one of the major networks during Sunday NFL football.
Wow, that must have been seen by you and maybe a couple of other people. [emoji6] The NFL would not be my choice to run a tv commercial these days.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 months later...

I would not say now is a bad time to be a whiskey drinker, but it may be a bad time to be a fan of something particular. I and many long time Weller fans here have suffered, but there is plenty more to enjoy. Prices have gone up a bit for me, but still I can find Wild Turkey 101 for $15, while OGD BiB has risen to $25 but still plenty available. Elijah Craig lost the age statement but the price hasn’t changed for me, and I don’t notice a significant drop in quality. Henry McKenna is still $30 here and that’s a ridiculous value, for now. Four Roses has seen $10+ increases in the small batch and standard single barrel but still a good value. My local store has the private select for $70, which I would take over almost any other limited. I have had a bottle or two of the private select that can stand up to my bottle of 2017 limited edition small batch. There’s plenty out there that is good to drink, if you know where to look and how to avoid hype and trends. I know plenty of new whiskey drinkers who sit on instagram all day and if it isn’t Blanton’s, BTAC/PVW, or Weller then they don’t care about it 

  • I like it 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Surtur said:

I would not say now is a bad time to be a whiskey drinker, but it may be a bad time to be a fan of something particular. I and many long time Weller fans here have suffered, but there is plenty more to enjoy. Prices have gone up a bit for me, but still I can find Wild Turkey 101 for $15, while OGD BiB has risen to $25 but still plenty available. Elijah Craig lost the age statement but the price hasn’t changed for me, and I don’t notice a significant drop in quality. Henry McKenna is still $30 here and that’s a ridiculous value, for now. Four Roses has seen $10+ increases in the small batch and standard single barrel but still a good value. My local store has the private select for $70, which I would take over almost any other limited. I have had a bottle or two of the private select that can stand up to my bottle of 2017 limited edition small batch. There’s plenty out there that is good to drink, if you know where to look and how to avoid hype and trends. I know plenty of new whiskey drinkers who sit on instagram all day and if it isn’t Blanton’s, BTAC/PVW, or Weller then they don’t care about it 

:)

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I keep waiting for technology to level set the boom bubble.  It is a bubble after all.  Demand for limited things that aren't available trickles into alternatives, bumping them up.  For every Amazon, there is a Pets.com, and WebVan, Excite, etc..  I have more trouble finding Eagle Rare now than I used to.  I haven't seen Elmer on a shelf in 3 years.  Michters pricing at some of the stores is absurdly high ($50+).  

 

Where technology can, and will pop the bubble is when the archaic shipping restrictions by liquor distributors are rescinded.  BevMo ships direct to California and a few other states, but Total Wine can't.  So BevMo can charge what they want to California, because there is no alternative really.  When something like Amazon gets involved in Liquor sales, the prices will stabilize.  Whiskey right now isn't being bought and sold by many people like a consumable commodity.  It's being bought and sold as a collectible.  Some areas have a large supply, it's bought up by the resellers (derisively tagged as flippers, ignoring the fact that they are serving a market need for distribution) and sent where it's wanted, and unable to be purchased via the more traditional internet marketplaces.  When a behemoth like Amazon gets involved with national distribution, you can bet that prices for many things will come down.  The limiteds will still be limited, and demand won't change there, nor will the prices for that matter.  But lots of the things that are costing more because of distribution imbalances will come back to earth.  

 

Hopefully soon, but I'm not betting on it.  Especially as demand in China is in its first trimester.  

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

China has been around since 1500 BC. If this is the first trimester of their tastes, the gestation period will extend past our great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren.

  • I like it 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a sneaking suspicion that distribution issues are not due to a lack of technological means, at least not in the US...

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

^^^Exactly!  The 'good old' three tiered system continues to happily service the modern consumer as the modern day equivalent of the Pony Express!  :rolleyes:

  • I like it 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/29/2018 at 8:13 PM, Paddy said:

^^^Exactly!  The 'good old' three tiered system continues to happily service the modern consumer as the modern day equivalent of the Pony Express!  :rolleyes:

Your use of the phrase; "service the modern consumer", is exceedingly accurate, Paddy.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your use of the phrase; "service the modern consumer", is exceedingly accurate, Paddy.

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23] I see what you did there!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe the supply issues have been a little overstated to drive up demand. In the last week alone I have gone in at least 10 different stores that have Weller SR and OWA in stock by the dozen, at $50+ and $70+ respectively. I get told by the worker that this is the rarest and best stuff out there, believe me $70 is a BARGAIN. I have also been to nearly 10 stores with most or all the Van Winkle products in stock, most at 10x retail price or more. There is supply, the problem is it is getting into the wrong hands. The irony with this however, is the more the secondary market inflates, the quicker we will see a crash and many people lose all interest. Obviously there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit. However we all know bourbon companies are no stranger to using many tactics like long tales on the side of the bottle to sell product.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I recall reading somewhere, before prohibition people could buy spirits directly from the source and have it delivered by mail.  Back when America was mostly rural farms, that was the only way to get a lot of things.  

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Surtur said:

I believe the supply issues have been a little overstated to drive up demand. In the last week alone I have gone in at least 10 different stores that have Weller SR and OWA in stock by the dozen, at $50+ and $70+ respectively. I get told by the worker that this is the rarest and best stuff out there, believe me $70 is a BARGAIN. I have also been to nearly 10 stores with most or all the Van Winkle products in stock, most at 10x retail price or more. There is supply, the problem is it is getting into the wrong hands. The irony with this however, is the more the secondary market inflates, the quicker we will see a crash and many people lose all interest. Obviously there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit. However we all know bourbon companies are no stranger to using many tactics like long tales on the side of the bottle to sell product.

I don't think so.

 

People have been predicting the crash for about.......4 years now.

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I don't agree that the supply problem has been overstated, pricing WSR and OWA at 50 and 70 is a new low.

 

Every time prices drive up, ages go down (or disappear) or it becomes more of a pain in the ass in general, that's the brakes of the bubble being applied harder and harder.

 

I was out drinking malt last night in London and in order to get out of there without spending half a month's rent I had to drink 9-10yr single malt all evening. I still enjoyed myself, but I don't know how much darker it can get before the dawn of the bubble collapse. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I flung myself onto the bandwagon just 4 months ago so I can confirm the boom has intensified by at least +1! 

On 1/29/2018 at 1:21 PM, mikeydk said:

I keep waiting for technology to level set the boom bubble.  It is a bubble after all.  Demand for limited things that aren't available trickles into alternatives, bumping them up.  For every Amazon, there is a Pets.com, and WebVan, Excite, etc..  I have more trouble finding Eagle Rare now than I used to.  I haven't seen Elmer on a shelf in 3 years.  Michters pricing at some of the stores is absurdly high ($50+).  

 

Where technology can, and will pop the bubble is when the archaic shipping restrictions by liquor distributors are rescinded.  BevMo ships direct to California and a few other states, but Total Wine can't.  So BevMo can charge what they want to California, because there is no alternative really.  When something like Amazon gets involved in Liquor sales, the prices will stabilize.  Whiskey right now isn't being bought and sold by many people like a consumable commodity.  It's being bought and sold as a collectible.  Some areas have a large supply, it's bought up by the resellers (derisively tagged as flippers, ignoring the fact that they are serving a market need for distribution) and sent where it's wanted, and unable to be purchased via the more traditional internet marketplaces.  When a behemoth like Amazon gets involved with national distribution, you can bet that prices for many things will come down.  The limiteds will still be limited, and demand won't change there, nor will the prices for that matter.  But lots of the things that are costing more because of distribution imbalances will come back to earth.  

 

Hopefully soon, but I'm not betting on it.  Especially as demand in China is in its first trimester.  

I think your last sentence really hits the nail. International interest is going to continue to increase and if the interest is there the politics will be worked out to get the hooch to the people. Rickhouses will be sucked dry. Everyone to your LS! Bunker up!! ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup. It's horrible. You see these pictures of China now - empty William Larue Weller and George T Stagg bottles just strewn at the side of the road like Coke cans...

  • I like it 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Surtur said:

I believe the supply issues have been a little overstated to drive up demand. In the last week alone I have gone in at least 10 different stores that have Weller SR and OWA in stock by the dozen, at $50+ and $70+ respectively. I get told by the worker that this is the rarest and best stuff out there, believe me $70 is a BARGAIN. I have also been to nearly 10 stores with most or all the Van Winkle products in stock, most at 10x retail price or more. There is supply, the problem is it is getting into the wrong hands. The irony with this however, is the more the secondary market inflates, the quicker we will see a crash and many people lose all interest. Obviously there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit. However we all know bourbon companies are no stranger to using many tactics like long tales on the side of the bottle to sell product.

On one hand you say the supply issues have been a little overstated, then add ...there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit...

 

Huh?

 

And, what tall tales are the distilleries spinning about the shortage, specifically?

 

 

  • I like it 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

On one hand you say the supply issues have been a little overstated, then add ...there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit...

 

Huh?

 

And, what tall tales are the distilleries spinning about the shortage, specifically?

 

 

You answered your own question. Supply issues have likely been a bit overstated, but not totally fabricated. Think of how many collectors out there went out and bought cases of certain bottles for fear of them running out? Distilleries are spending millions on new sites to age unfathomable new supply, they don't want the bubble to pop. Thus, it is my speculation and personal opinion alone that the actual amount of shortage has been inflated a bit to drive up cost and create more demand. Economics by the numbers.

 

I am also guilty of this to some extent, but might the amount of hoarding we all do be a contributing factor? I have to assume since again I have no hard evidence, but I would think 30 years ago the average person kept a much smaller stash in their house compared to today.

Edited by Surtur
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wager that the distilleries are viewing this bubble with a great deal of concern.  They aren't freaking out about it yet, because foreign markets are still largely untapped, but they cannot be happy with the frustrations of their current customer base.  If people cannot purchase their favorite thing, at something resembling the "retail" price (or find it at all), they will be forced to find a new favorite thing, and it might be some other distillery, spirit, or hobby altogether.   

 

Many companies aren't looking to replace old customers with new ones.  They are looking to keep old customers and add new ones.  I cannot imagine distilleries trying to magnify shortages on purpose, particularly with all of the micro-distilleries that are about to come online to fill the gaps in supply.   The demand is there.  The supply obviously isn't.  Flippers impact the supply.  So do us hoarders.  I'm damned certain that they would love for us to all buy another case, which is why they are expanding production. :)  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sure, I agree with you. I'm only speculating based on what I've seen in my neck of the woods, or observing as is the title, because I have done a great deal of hunting lately and coming up big at retail price. I have been in perhaps 50 stores all over the state the last week, and I forgot how much fun it is to travel around looking mostly for anything remotely dusty.

 

Again, I have never once in the years of the boom been unable to find any of my staples (being OGD BiB, WT101, Four Roses SB and small batch, Elijah Craig minus age statement) EXCEPT for Weller sometimes. Overall where I'm sitting, things are looking good. I will once again enjoy BTAC and PVW when I see it, no stress or concern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Surtur said:

You answered your own question. Supply issues have likely been a bit overstated, but not totally fabricated. Think of how many collectors out there went out and bought cases of certain bottles for fear of them running out? Distilleries are spending millions on new sites to age unfathomable new supply, they don't want the bubble to pop. Thus, it is my speculation and personal opinion alone that the actual amount of shortage has been inflated a bit to drive up cost and create more demand. Economics by the numbers.

 

I am also guilty of this to some extent, but might the amount of hoarding we all do be a contributing factor? I have to assume since again I have no hard evidence, but I would think 30 years ago the average person kept a much smaller stash in their house compared to today.

Answered my own question?  My question is your clear contradiction of yourself.  I’m still puzzled by “a little” equaling “quite a bit”...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Answered my own question?  My question is your clear contradiction of yourself.  I’m still puzzled by “a little” equaling “quite a bit”...

You’re confusing yourself with where I said “I believe supply issues have been a little overstated to drive up demand.” With “Obviously there is some amount of whiskey shortage and probably quite a bit.” They can simultaneously exist, being that there is some amount of shortage, possibly a substantial amount, yet the companies, in my opinion, seem to have overstated the actual amount a little, in order to turn a profit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So is it “some shortage”, “quite a bit” shortage, or “substantial amount” shortage?  You’re really going in 3/4 circles here.  :D

 

The Boom is real.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

So is it “some shortage”, “quite a bit” shortage, or “substantial amount” shortage?  You’re really going in 3/4 circles here.  :D

 

The Boom is real.  

 

 

 

Goodness, you must be a lawyer. Weller, PVW, BTAC, Blanton’s, and a few others have been raise to mythical status and near household names because of the boom combined with the shortage. You don’t think it’s good for their business to have thousands of people lined up and on lists to try and get maybe one of 5 bottles of Pappy? Again as the title of the thread, my observation is the supply shortage MAY be slightly inflated by the companies to drive up more demand. People are buying ORVW for $400, even though that’s secondary pricing and they store gets the profit, the fact someone is even willing to pay that is based solely on reputation. 

 

We’re never going to agree on this and that is perfectly fine, but you seem to be taking this a bit personally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.