Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[flahute]

12 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Are you saying the Weller stock disappeared because VW line took a good chunk of stock or because the demand for Weller skyrocketed and stock ran out because VW basically endorsed Weller?

 

Both.

[Harry in WashDC]

40 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Are you saying the Weller stock disappeared because VW line took a good chunk of stock or because the demand for Weller skyrocketed and stock ran out because VW basically endorsed Weller?

 

Good catch.

[HoustonNit]

Good catch.

I think it’s much more of the later.

[Vosgar]

On 9/13/2019 at 8:05 AM, HoustonNit said:

I think as is most everyone on here I’m not a fan of the 81proof but really enjoy the 101 rye. Often times I’ve been in the buying mood for the 101 but all I see is 81. I hope the 101 is as widely distributed as the 81 currently is when 81 disappears.

 

 

19 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

There may be some argument that Saz/BT could pump out more of stuff like THH, Stagg or WLW but there not really in the business of selling BTAC. They are in the business of Fireball and just happened to plan very poorly for future demands in regional products like Weller. Unlike the guys at Campari that run their business a little better.

 

 

So you state you can't find WT 101 rye, but yet you say Campari runs their business better than BT, who can't supply enough Weller. Sounds like a similar situation for both distilleries.

 

My point is that none of the distilleries could have anticipated the explosion in American whiskey that we're experiencing, it's not poor planning that's resulting in shortages of certain products.

[HoustonNit]

So you state you can't find WT 101 rye, but yet you say Campari runs their business better than BT, who can't supply enough Weller. Sounds like a similar situation for both distilleries.

 

My point is that none of the distilleries could have anticipated the explosion in American whiskey that we're experiencing, it's not poor planning that's resulting in shortages of certain products.

 

Where did you find the WT rye post, also these are not the same. I can still find WT101 rye quite easily, heck people on here have ordered it by the case. Try ordering most BT products other than Weller in Texas and they’ll laugh in your face. While true rye supply at Turkey is stretched the issue for 81 proof being more common seems to be due to what distributors order vs. a decision to under produce it. Campari is going to fix this by no longer offering the 81proof.

[Vosgar]

1 hour ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Where did you find the WT rye post

Yesterday on "What bourbon did you pass on"

[fishnbowljoe]

2 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

 

Where did you find the WT rye post, also these are not the same. I can still find WT101 rye quite easily, heck people on here have ordered it by the case. Try ordering most BT products other than Weller in Texas and they’ll laugh in your face. While true rye supply at Turkey is stretched the issue for 81 proof being more common seems to be due to what distributors order vs. a decision to under produce it. Campari is going to fix this by no longer offering the 81proof.

It sure seems that you’re implying that with WT’s issues, their problems are because of the distributors, but when it comes to Saz/BT, it’s the distilleries fault.   

 

Biba! Joe

 

 

[HoustonNit]

It sure seems that you’re implying that with WT’s issues, their problems are because of the distributors, but when it comes to Saz/BT, it’s the distilleries fault.  <_>  
Biba! Joe
 
 

Not implying, this is what I’m saying and thanks for summarizing. WT/Campari isn’t immune to this craze but they certainly seem to have done a better job of sticking barrels in there rickhouses years back.

[Vosgar]

1 hour ago, HoustonNit said:

Not implying, this is what I’m saying and thanks for summarizing. WT/Campari isn’t immune to this craze but they certainly seem to have done a better job of sticking barrels in there rickhouses years back.

 

Really?

http://chuckcowdery.blogspot.com/2013/11/wild-turkey-101-rye-is-back-sort-of.html

 

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2013/11/wild-turkey-101-rye-returns-after-bartender-backlash/

 

Again, none of the major distilleries were ready for this boom. FR, WT, HH and BT have all done or are in the process of multi-million dollar expansions (or in the case of BT, $1.2 Billion dollars)

[HoustonNit]

Really?
http://chuckcowdery.blogspot.com/2013/11/wild-turkey-101-rye-is-back-sort-of.html
 
https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2013/11/wild-turkey-101-rye-returns-after-bartender-backlash/
 
Again, none of the major distilleries were ready for this boom. FR, WT, HH and BT have all done or are in the process of multi-million dollar expansions (or in the case of BT, $1.2 Billion dollars)

I don’t disagree with you on your statement. However it seems BT was really unprepared for this and only recently are making the necessary increases. You reference articles from 2013 about a decision made in 2012. This is for WT rye a product they distill one week out of the year. BT can’t even keep there name stake bottle on the shelf.

[AndyD]

Are you guys saying that BT is hard to get in Texas but weller is easy?  Seems the reverse in MN.  I can find Saz, BT and ER anywhere .

Edited September 15, 2019 by AndyD

[Vosgar]

15 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

I don’t disagree with you on your statement. However it seems BT was really unprepared for this and only recently are making the necessary increases. You reference articles from 2013 about a decision made in 2012. This is for WT rye a product they distill one week out of the year. BT can’t even keep there name stake bottle on the shelf.

 

Gotta say, while I disagree with you and we will never change each others mind, I like your tenacity!  

 

BTW, the boom was going strong in 2012

 

If you ever want some BT, let me know. We've got boatloads of it up here.

[HoustonNit]

Are you guys saying that BT is hard to get in Texas but weller is easy?  Seems the reverse in MN.  I can find Saz, BT and ER anywhere .

Well not that hard but it does run out on occasion which is crazy and I hear it’s much more difficult to get in other states. WSR however is very available and almost never runs out.

[HoustonNit]

Gotta say, while I disagree with you and we will never change each others mind, I like your tenacity! [emoji4] 

 

BTW, the boom was going strong in 2012

 

If you ever want some BT, let me know. We've got boatloads of it up here.

 

You’re alright and your avatar is fitting [emoji3].

 

I actually respect your knowledge and passion and experience more than mine. However there’s something with BT that just doesn’t seem to quite add up. As you said boom has been going for a while. It seems that WT had finished there new distillery before BT decided to make the investment in expansion.

 

I can still find BT but not an automatic finding at the store down the street. The way things are going I might be hitting you up for some BT in a few months. If you need a case of WSR let me know.

[Harry in WashDC]

26 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

 

I don’t disagree with you on your statement. However it seems BT was really unprepared for this and only recently are making the necessary increases. You reference articles from 2013 about a decision made in 2012. This is for WT rye a product they distill one week out of the year. BT can’t even keep there name stake bottle on the shelf.

After reading through the last few posts, I remembered that we had discussions on SB circa 2013/2014 about the shortages - including the shortage of barrels - that were affecting supply AND DEBATING whether this was  an artificial shortage.  SO, I went looking.  I started with the BT website - www.buffalotracedistillery.com - and checked their "News" since their press releases go back to 2003.  Two in particular caught my eye - one from 22 May 2013 titled "BOURBON BOOM CAUSES PERIODIC BOURBON SHORTAGES AT BUFFALO TRACE DISTILLERY" and another from 14 August 2014 titled "BUFFALO TRACE DISTILLERY PUTS RUMORS TO REST".  Not wishing to rely upon what might be self serving statements, I pulled out my old "Bourbon Country Reader" stack and quickly flipped through.  Plenty of stuff and references in there documenting the millions of dollars the majors, including Saz/BT began pouring into expansion MUCH earlier than 2012.  Like the Spanish Inquisition, NOBODY expected the Bourbon Boom to be SO BIG AND LONG.  ALSO, the Distilled Spirits Council's website has several articles on this as do some of the better known whiskey/bourbon review places.  I didn't check the MSM or the Archives of some bloggers turned pro spirits writers (one of whom publishes Bouorbon+) who/which also wrote about this, mostly after-the-fact.

 

In sum, Saz BT appears to have begun investing in expansion about the same time and the same relative dollars as ALMOST everybody else.  The outlier?  Brown Forman started its expansion of JD rackhouses a little earlier AND built proportionately MORE AND started filling them a little sooner than anybody else.

 

[He sitteth back down after speechifying and resumeth watching THE NATS FINALLY HOLDING ON TO AQ LEAD AGAINST A BETTER OPPONENT!!]  (And he hasn't started drinking, yet, either.) 

[flahute]

38 minutes ago, HoustonNit said:

However there’s something with BT that just doesn’t seem to quite add up. 

The answer to your query lies in my post from a few days ago that you replied to.

As I said there, and many many times on this site, every newbie who comes into this hobby is told that PVW and BTAC is the best in the world ever. When they can't find it, they are told to buy other products from BT, which they do, en masse. This has been going on since at least 2012 when I first started paying attention. The newbies have poured in ever since then, more each year, and the situation repeats itself. None of the other distilleries have experienced this phenomena at a level remotely approaching BT.

I just met a guy last week who is "into bourbon". He knew all about and talked about the various BT products that he loves. He has never once tried ANYTHING from Wild Turkey.

He barely know 4R. He knows nothing about HH and BF.

I see the guys in the various local facebook groups. All are absolutely obsessed with all things BT. They post photos of their Blanton's "scores" and go on and on and on about EHT products.

Again, their exposure to the other distilleries is limited.

THIS is why BT has a harder time keeping up than everyone else.

[macdad]

I am new to bourbon.  I have gone a little crazy over the last couple months buying different bottles, based on advice from people I know and things written on this forum.  I have purchased the following:  WT101, ER10, HH 6 year, EW 1783, Bulleit, RR10...  I also have had samples of Woodford Reserve, 4R Single Barrel, New Riff, Knob Creek, and BT.  All this in an effort to get a better feel for the differences between distilleries.

 

From what I have tasted so far, I really enjoy the WT and RR10.  ER10 is OK.  I actually really enjoyed the BT sample.  OK, to be honest, I like about all of them and appreciate their differences.  Good news is, I can find the WT products in excess about everywhere in Ohio.  That being said, I would still love to be able to go into a store and buy a bottle of Blanton's.  I think it is part of the hunt that gets me excited, but I fear that I would be let down.  Simply due to the hype and scarcity, I expect it to be life changing

 

Whether the shortages of BT products is legitimate or fabricated, I think they are in a good position.  Instead of folks moving on to more available products, they just scratch and claw for the hard to find stuff.  I actually have this vision in my head...  We had a recent shipment of Blanton's to several stores in NW Ohio.  One was RiteAid in Perrysburg.  They were still showing it in stock, but a clerk told me it was only six bottles.  They were gone within 15 minutes of opening the day they arrived.  I think there are folks that go around and buy the entire case and stock pile it in their basement.  In the end, I believe it is hurting BT.  If they distributed more, they would definitely sell more.  They are losing out on a lot of money.

 

I am patient.  Either it will pass or it won't.  I may never get to buy a bottle of Blanton's, but I will survive (and I refuse to pay more than retail for much of anything). 

 

Sorry for the rambling.    BTW... I would love to see the actual sales volume as well as regional distribution of specific brands BT, WT, FR, HH etc.  I think that would tell quite a story.

[Jazz June]

A big piece of the BT weirdness is distribution. To some extent, they distribute based on historical sales, so some areas get plenty of a brand and other areas get very little. Also, hype begets shortages begets hype. Virginia ABC can't keep Buffalo Trace on the shelf (although it seems to be improving lately) and has it restricted to one per customer. But you can go across the river to DC and buy it no problem (at a small markup most likely, but not crazy). People in the VA Facebook groups brag about "scoring" BT, which just inspires more silliness.

 

It's also good to remember that if Sazerac wanted to bring supply and demand closer together, they could just jack up prices. And I don't think many on here would be too happy about that. While this seems to be happening with Weller, most of their other brands have remained relatively consistent. They also kept the age statement on Eagle Rare, Weller 12, etc.; although to my tastes, some of the products have dropped in quality. The idea that they are just holding back product for no reason makes no sense to me. I can certainly believe they hold back whiskey to let it age into a more premium product that delivers a better margin, but I can't believe that they have cases and cases just sitting when they could send it out into the market. The mash bill number two products being limited can also be explained by the fact that the brands are owned by Age International. BT doesn't have any motivation to produce any more of those products than they are contractually obligated to. And them not producing too much of the highest end products is also unsurprising.

 

When you are starting out, you want to be told what's best or at least try everything so you can make up your own mind. Still lots of people in these phases.

 

[0895]

Let's not forget that some of the distributors like to send non case quantities of certain products, to prevent stores from getting case qty. discounts.

[Harry in WashDC]

9 minutes ago, Jazz June said:

A big piece of the BT weirdness is distribution. To some extent, they distribute based on historical sales, so some areas get plenty of a brand and other areas get very little. Also, hype begets shortages begets hype. Virginia ABC can't keep Buffalo Trace on the shelf (although it seems to be improving lately) and has it restricted to one per customer. But you can go across the river to DC and buy it no problem (at a small markup most likely, but not crazy). People in the VA Facebook groups brag about "scoring" BT, which just inspires more silliness.

 

It's also good to remember that if Sazerac wanted to bring supply and demand closer together, they could just jack up prices. And I don't think many on here would be too happy about that. While this seems to be happening with Weller, most of their other brands have remained relatively consistent. They also kept the age statement on Eagle Rare, Weller 12, etc.; although to my tastes, some of the products have dropped in quality. The idea that they are just holding back product for no reason makes no sense to me. I can certainly believe they hold back whiskey to let it age into a more premium product that delivers a better margin, but I can't believe that they have cases and cases just sitting when they could send it out into the market. The mash bill number two products being limited can also be explained by the fact that the brands are owned by Age International. BT doesn't have any motivation to produce any more of those products than they are contractually obligated to. And them not producing too much of the highest end products is also unsurprising.

 

When you are starting out, you want to be told what's best or at least try everything so you can make up your own mind. Still lots of people in these phases.

 

I live in WashDC but spend a lot of time in central Virginia (Lake Anna).  The availability statement above is my experience as well.  Strangely enough, the VA ABC stores with their seasonal distribution/sale of Blanton's is where and when I pick up sufficient Blanton's to carry me to the next release date; DC stores are hit and mostly miss.  NOTE WELL that last sentence in the previous post -  "When you are starting out, you want to be told what's best or at least try everything so you can make up your own mind. Still lots of people in these phases."  I have a bunker full of (well, not "full of" but "containing") impulse buys in numbers sufficient that my September 14th resolution is: DRINK DOWN THE BUNKER AS LIKELY THE CONTENTS EQUAL OR EXCEED MY YEARS REMAINING AS A FUNCTIONING CONSUMER.  Next week the resolution will change but until then -- I KNOW I have gallons of excellent whiskey (most of it bourbon or rye) down there.  In other words, don't let others tell you what you like.  Instead, taste what you can get AND afford and then make up your own mind.

 

[Vosgar]

39 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

my September 14th resolution is: DRINK DOWN THE BUNKER AS LIKELY THE CONTENTS EQUAL OR EXCEED MY YEARS REMAINING AS A FUNCTIONING CONSUMER.  

 

Do I dare ask what your definition of "functioning" is? 

 

Regardless, it's a great resolution Harry!

[Harry in WashDC]

3 minutes ago, Vosgar said:

Do I dare ask what your definition of "functioning" is? 

 

Regardless, it's a great resolution Harry!

I can answer that.  My wife is the daughter of an undertaker, and her brother inherited the business and ran it for another for 45 years (sold it last year).  Caskets are waterproof.  And bourbon proof.  When I no longer function . . .  YES!  You can take it with you!

[Vosgar]

7 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

Caskets are waterproof.  And bourbon proof.  When I no longer function . . .  YES!  You can take it with you!

Do you have a double wide picked out?

[Harry in WashDC]

4 minutes ago, Vosgar said:

Do you have a double wide picked out?

It gonna TAKE a double wide to get all that liquid in there.  I have visions of some future archeologist finding me and all that bourbon and speculating about what kind of royal poobah warranted a FBB (Full Bourbon Burial).   Imagine the post grad theses (plural of thesis and not related to feces) some students will get to write about THAT!

[Vosgar]

4 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

It gonna TAKE a double wide to get all that liquid in there.  I have visions of some future archeologist finding me and all that bourbon and speculating about what kind of royal poobah warranted a FBB (Full Bourbon Burial).   Imagine the post grad theses (plural of thesis and not related to feces) some students will get to write about THAT!

Question #3 - Is it still called a "bunker" when it's buried with you or is there a different term?