Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Richnimrod]

16 hours ago, JoeTerp said:

the lines waiting outside stores on truck days have been getting bigger with more and more people showing up before opening and doing it for less and less restricted items. 

And they told me the 'Boom' was a dying fad..... 

[DCFan]

19 hours ago, JoeTerp said:

the lines waiting outside stores on truck days have been getting bigger with more and more people showing up before opening and doing it for less and less restricted items. 

This entire topic is ludicrous and the thread should be locked. It's laughable if anyone thinks this bourbon hot streak is not only abating but will reverse course in the near future.  And BT can take their OWA and shove their price doubling.  End of rant, Go Nats!

[bunkerbuster]

2 hours ago, DCFan said:

This entire topic is ludicrous and the thread should be locked. It's laughable if anyone thinks this bourbon hot streak is not only abating but will reverse course in the near future.  And BT can take their OWA and shove their price doubling.  End of rant, Go Nats!

Lock a thread intended to go for years because the boom might not peak soon?  Perhaps you are being sarcastic, but I for one really appreciate having a thread like this.  It's like watching a slowly unfolding documentary.  The longer it goes the more we get to look back at, in one convenient place, and see whether our individual observations jived with the bigger picture.  I am very curious to see, once it finally does reverse course for a sustained period or actually "busts," how long it took us to spot what was happening -- and how many of us kept focusing on signals that seemed to say the peak is well ahead of us when with the benefit of hindsight we will know it had already occurred.  Hardly anyone must have thought the boom would still be going in 2019 when it was in its infancy about 20 years ago.  The most knowledgeable among us would have thought the idea ludicrous.       

[HoustonNit]

Um with reviews like this below I don’t see the end coming anytime soon. Unless this whole thing is a joke. Just wow, this so amazingly taterific.

 

 

https://woodstockwhiskeysociety.com/2019/08/04/review-j-mattingly-bourbon-barons-private-barrel-the-italian-job/

 

Read below,

 

“Jealous? You should be. This is a private barrel select from a local group here in the Atlanta area from the Bourbon Barons group. The only way to score one of these is to be a member of the Bourbon Barons. Some of the proceeds from the sale of these bottles went to Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta, so not only did we get a great one-of-a-kind Mattingly pick, but we also are helping a great cause. Just Baron things, amirite?

 

This Mattingly blend (rumored MGP) comes in a whopping 134 proof, but drinks closer to 100. The color is an enticing deep mahogany and the off-white label makes for a stunning contrast. Adorned with the Bourbon Barons and Mattingly logo on one side, we can flip the bottle to find this sweet “The Italian Job” sticker on the rear. Cap it off with a white wax dip and you’ve got yourself a stunning bottle for the shelf. But what’s the point if we don’t crack it open and try it?”

 

[The Black Tot]

Perhaps this thread should be locked.

 

It is clearly doing great harm to a great many people.

[DCFan]

On 3/23/2015 at 1:33 PM, squire said:

I think Bourbon has been launched onto the World stage as never before and it will be some time before we realize the full impact of that.

One of the first posts in this thread and truer words were never spoken. Bourbon demand is stronger than ever with no end in sight. 

 

Loved reading about the hipsters and millennials getting the blame as well as the Great Pumpkin promises with increases in production, distillery, and warehouse activity reversing the shortages being right around the corner.  

[The Black Tot]

6 minutes ago, DCFan said:

as well as the Great Pumpkin promises with increases in production, distillery, and warehouse activity reversing the shortages being right around the corner.  

 

Do you think the world can just buy 5x the amount of bourbon they used to in perpetuity? While also buying the 3x Scottish malt, 5x Irish Whisky and 5x tequila?

 

Just because something happens slowly doesn't mean it ain't happenin'. And it ain't the first time bourbon increased production, thinking it was going to take over the world for the rest of time...

[DCFan]

46 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Do you think the world can just buy 5x the amount of bourbon they used to in perpetuity? While also buying the 3x Scottish malt, 5x Irish Whisky and 5x tequila?

Supply and demand are issues for smarter people than me to figure out. But with the world's population continuing to grow along with  expanding middle classes in China and India in particular the demand for whiskeys is going to continue to grow with it. How much, I don't know I'm just an old guy who's retiring to the south in a few months. And I'm grateful that OGD BIB and WT are always on the shelf no matter what LS I go to.  

[The Black Tot]

24 minutes ago, DCFan said:

Supply and demand are issues for smarter people than me to figure out.

You seem to have had no problem above telling us what's what.

25 minutes ago, DCFan said:

But with the world's population continuing to grow along with  expanding middle classes in China and India in particular the demand for whiskeys is going to continue to grow with it. 

Yeah, no.

 

The only people who say this stuff are people who haven't been to these countries, because those who have have seen that they're just not that into bourbon. And it's not because they didn't make enough before. It's because they're just not that into bourbon. All one has to do is eat the food in countries like these to know that their palates have significantly different preferences to ours. 

 

Also a significant percentage of India is Muslim, and teetotal.

 

Go anywhere other than western Europe, Japan, and North America (and to a tiny extent, Australia) and try and find anything other than Jack and JBW. You'll be lucky to find the JBW. 

 

"China will buy it" is wishful thinking.

[DCFan]

15 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

The only people who say this stuff are people who haven't been to these countries, because those who have have seen that they're just not that into bourbon. And it's not because they didn't make enough before. It's because they're just not that into bourbon.

That’s why I said whiskey.   The expansion of the middle class in the 2 countries I mentioned means the consumption of western products. When GM scaled back their product offerings 10? years ago why do you think they kept the Buick line? It’s because the Chinese go bonkers over Buicks. An expanding middle class means more whiskey drinkers.  (Because I said so  ). And the muslims in India are a small minority. The overwhelming majority are Hindi. While many abstain from meat I don’t believe the middle class has that problem with whiskey.

 

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, DCFan said:

That’s why I said whiskey.   The expansion of the middle class in the 2 countries I mentioned means the consumption of western products. When GM scaled back their product offerings 10? years ago why do you think they kept the Buick line? It’s because the Chinese go bonkers over Buicks. An expanding middle class means more whiskey drinkers.  (Because I said so  ). And the muslims in India are a small minority. The overwhelming majority are Hindi. While many abstain from meat I don’t believe the middle class has that problem with whiskey.

 

You see? I knew you weren't just an old guy who's retiring to the south in a few months.

[flahute]

I've been to China twice and Paul is correct. You actually celebrate and do a little dance if you are lucky enough to find Jim Beam White Label.

[mal00768]

A large majority of my coworkers are from India and China. (I work in software.) I struggle to get any of them to enjoy bourbon with me. They will jump at the opportunity to try some new scotch. But any bourbon is met with a short “I don’t like bourbon.”

Edited October 19, 2019 by mal00768

[Harry in WashDC]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

I've been to China twice and Paul is correct. You actually celebrate and do a little dance if you are lucky enough to find Jim Beam White Label.

ButButBut -

 

What about Maotai and other Baijiu?  And that plum brandy.  CLEARLY, the Chinese palate is set up to like bourbon, provided enough sugar and fruit syrup has been mixed in with it.  After three weeks of drinking it (as "western" spirits were nowhere to be found there in 1978), I sort of got used to it.  THEN, some Chinese allies started plying me with local beers and some clear, mostly tasteless (think cut grass) distillate.  They didn't like Maotai, either.

 

OTOH, how many of us SBers started out not really liking bourbon until we really started TASTING it instead of just drinking it in cicktails.  What's the learning curve timeline overseas?   EDIT - uh, cocktails, not cicktails.  I don't know what a cicktail is.  Must be something.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Harry in WashDC

[DCFan]

14 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

OTOH, how many of us SBers started out not really liking bourbon until we really started TASTING it instead of just drinking it in cicktails.  What's the learning curve timeline overseas?   EDIT - uh, cocktails, not cicktails.  I don't know what a cicktail is.  Must be something.

God love ya Harry. I knew my fellow DC bourbon drinker in arms could get a handle on this.  Tastes evolve. The westernization process is happening with lightning speed but as has already been established they prefer scotch now.  So what.  As everyone here can attest, while we may start out liking one thing in particular, our tastes for alcoholic beverages are always evolving.  Dare I say it, we get on the latest drinking craze as the Chicoms and Indians will as well. Statue of liberty and American flag waving in Hong Kong, the NBA in the rest of China. The Asians are getting westernized at ricky-tick speed and that will ultimately include acquiring a taste for bourbon, IMO. The only real question is will the Black Tot's production/warehouse increases be able to handle the Asian demand as well as us red blooded Americans (and our UK/EU cousins).   

[flahute]

30 minutes ago, Harry in WashDC said:

ButButBut -

 

What about Maotai and other Baijiu?  And that plum brandy.  CLEARLY, the Chinese palate is set up to like bourbon, provided enough sugar and fruit syrup has been mixed in with it.  After three weeks of drinking it (as "western" spirits were nowhere to be found there in 1978), I sort of got used to it.  THEN, some Chinese allies started plying me with local beers and some clear, mostly tasteless (think cut grass) distillate.  They didn't like Maotai, either.

 

OTOH, how many of us SBers started out not really liking bourbon until we really started TASTING it instead of just drinking it in cicktails.  What's the learning curve timeline overseas?   EDIT - uh, cocktails, not cicktails.  I don't know what a cicktail is.  Must be something.

Somewhere in China there's a parallel discussion debating their ongoing observations about whether the Baijiu boom has peaked. 

[DCFan]

1 minute ago, flahute said:

Somewhere in China there's a parallel discussion debating their ongoing observations about whether the Baijiu boom has peaked. 

Lock that thread!  

[fishnbowljoe]

2 hours ago, flahute said:

Somewhere in China there's a parallel discussion debating their ongoing observations about whether the Baijiu boom has peaked. 

 

2 hours ago, DCFan said:

Lock that thread!  

 

My father was stationed on Guam just before WWII. Along with military stuff, I remember him telling me a little about the Chamorro people. One story he told was of a beverage they made. I can't recall the name, but I do remember my father comparing it to the Navy's "torpedo" juice. 

 

Biba! Joe

[flahute]

25 minutes ago, fishnbowljoe said:

 

 

My father was stationed on Guam just before WWII. Along with military stuff, I remember him telling me a little about the Chamorro people. One story he told was of a beverage they made. I can't recall the name, but I do remember my father comparing it to the Navy's "torpedo" juice. 

 

Biba! Joe

Lol! My Dad was in the Navy. I'll need to ask him about this torpedo juice.

[macdad]

57 minutes ago, flahute said:

Lol! My Dad was in the Navy. I'll need to ask him about this torpedo juice.

I don't know what it is either, but I am pretty sure I wouldn't like it!

 

[Harry in WashDC]

4 hours ago, DCFan said:

God love ya Harry. I knew my fellow DC bourbon drinker in arms could get a handle on this.  Tastes evolve. The westernization process is happening with lightning speed but as has already been established they prefer scotch now.  So what.  As everyone here can attest, while we may start out liking one thing in particular, our tastes for alcoholic beverages are always evolving.  Dare I say it, we get on the latest drinking craze as the Chicoms and Indians will as well. Statue of liberty and American flag waving in Hong Kong, the NBA in the rest of China. The Asians are getting westernized at ricky-tick speed and that will ultimately include acquiring a taste for bourbon, IMO. The only real question is will the Black Tot's production/warehouse increases be able to handle the Asian demand as well as us red blooded Americans (and our UK/EU cousins).   

Yeah, but keep in mind that TBT spends most of the year on ships going in and out of ports all over the Earth.  Hence, he has real-time, albeit anecdotal, albeit well-informed, experience with what's hot and what's not in all those places.  This may be a difference in timescales - some of us are assessing the boom and market growth (not to mention the RATE of that growth) going out, say, 20 years while others of us are looking at a two to five year horizon.  The nations of the world (at least those portions exposed to persons from elsewhere) may be approaching a common, homogenized level of consumer expectation (viz. movies, Coca/Pepsi Cola, salsa supplanting ketchup as the #1 condiment in the US, India increasing per capita beef consumption, etc.) BUT that does not mean the whole population in each such country will have access to all that "sharing" of tastes.  Even here in the US of A, we have regional differences that seem to transcend common experience.  For example, lobster may be available all over the US at a price fairly close to what one pays for it in Maine, but I still bet more lobster is consumed in Maine, per capita, than most other places.  WashDC is an exception as Clyde's restaurant chain features lobster all SEP and OCT, and my wife and I go get it once a week for lunch. [WHERE WAS I??  Oh, yeah]. - That reminds me of a study on how "mobile" US of A persons are - how much they move and where they have traveled to for work and play.  There are STILL sizable pockets of US persons who have spent their entire lives within a few miles of the birthplaces.  A larger number has never traveled outside the US let alone lived overseas for any length of time.

 

IN SUM - I sure see a huge potential market for bourbon outside the US of A - LOTS of unpenetrated or marginally penetrated markets.  The question is - How long, and at what cost, will "capturing" each such market take?  AND, if we start penetrating, will local distillers (like the scotch makers in Japan and India) give the bourbon persons a run for that money?

 

Glad I'm retired and not a salesman of bourbon in India.  Or of Maotai in the US of A.

[flahute]

8 hours ago, DCFan said:

God love ya Harry. I knew my fellow DC bourbon drinker in arms could get a handle on this.  Tastes evolve. The westernization process is happening with lightning speed but as has already been established they prefer scotch now.  So what.  As everyone here can attest, while we may start out liking one thing in particular, our tastes for alcoholic beverages are always evolving.  Dare I say it, we get on the latest drinking craze as the Chicoms and Indians will as well. Statue of liberty and American flag waving in Hong Kong, the NBA in the rest of China. The Asians are getting westernized at ricky-tick speed and that will ultimately include acquiring a taste for bourbon, IMO. The only real question is will the Black Tot's production/warehouse increases be able to handle the Asian demand as well as us red blooded Americans (and our UK/EU cousins).   

If you've been following Chuck Cowdery for any length of time you'll be familiar his take.

If China fully embraces bourbon, our distillers will not have made enough. If they don't, we will have made too much.

[The Black Tot]

4 hours ago, flahute said:

If you've been following Chuck Cowdery for any length of time you'll be familiar his take.

If China fully embraces bourbon, our distillers will not have made enough. If they don't, we will have made too much.

...and we are making way more bourbon now than when he said that, as well.

[jwperry]

All the factors for an economic recession are cropping up. The bourbon boom seems to have coincided with our economic prosperity and rebound after the last 2 bubble collapses.

Give it a few years, luxury spending (booze) will be curtailed as house hold budgets no longer allow for such expenditures.

[smokinjoe]

It’s beneficial in these discussions, I think, to be reminded of the length and depth of the boom, by showing this graphic.  Twenty years in, and still going strong.  Of course, it can’t and won’t last indefinitely, but Dayum!, this has been a generational run!