Richnimrod Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 51 minutes ago, smokinjoe said: It’s beneficial in these discussions, I think, to be reminded of the length and depth of the boom, by showing this graphic. Twenty years in, and still going strong. Of course, it can’t and won’t last indefinitely, but Dayum!, this has been a generational run! Does this graph represent sales totals, or production totals? I'm guessing the latter; but want to know for sure. If it's production, that means the industry (or at least those reporting figures to the DSC) have nearly doubled production in just 16-years. ...And there is a good deal more production that came, or is coming, online soon. I agree: DAYUM!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, jwperry said: All the factors for an economic recession are cropping up. The bourbon boom seems to have coincided with our economic prosperity and rebound after the last 2 bubble collapses. Give it a few years, luxury spending (booze) will be curtailed as house hold budgets no longer allow for such expenditures. Someplace recently, I saw a puff piece-type article (like "Ten Things That'll Make You . . .") saying hard liquor consumption jumps in recessions compared to steady growth in good times. SO, I searched for <liquor consumption in a recession>. Several studies done in the 2009-2015 period indicate that DAYITME (i.e., OTJ-time) drinking went down during the "Great Recession" but binge drinking after hours and on weekends went UP. Binge drinking was defined as more than 4 drinks for females and five for males." AND WHILE that chart's vertical scale makes it LOOK like 2018 production was multiple times what it was in 2002, the production in 2018 is not quite double the 2002 volume. Nevertheless, "almost double" is a lot less than the cumulative rate of inflation (43% compounded annually) over that same period. The US population during that time grew from about 288 Million to about 327 Million which is less than a cumulative increase of something over 10% (EDIT - figured as about 0.8% per year as a straight-line average). Either we are drinking a LOT more per person or new markets are opening someplace. Edited October 20, 2019 by Harry in WashDC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said: Either we are drinking a LOT more per person or new markets are opening someplace. Or regular middle class Americans are building home bars with 20 or 30 choices where before they kept 3 or 4. And restaurants and bars recently expanded and diversified their whiskey menus and had to build inventories. As I've stated earlier in this thread, personally I believe much more whiskey is being purchased than is being consumed, and it is accumulating around the country, despite flying off of liquor store shelves. The rise of the liquor superstores are bringing more choice to a greater public who before maybe shopped at their mom and pop LS, which is probably leading to more experimentation and the building of the bars mentioned above. We are all well familiar with how the frenzy has led to the rise of flipper culture, which has disproportionately shifted the purchase patterns of the limited edition bottles, which will continue until there are enough limiteds to buy that the average joe can get one, without lining up, at MSRP. Demographically a record number of people should be retiring right now, resulting in discretionary spending on nicer bottles in a disproportionate manner. It's been a bit of a perfect storm. Personally I don't consider the boom to have started 20yrs ago with the relatively moderate gains from 2000-2009. I consider that it started in 2010 (a 15% rise in 8 yrs 2002-2010 vs 59% for the next 8 ) . But that's up to everyone to decide for themselves. As we have discussed previously, other spirits have similar trajectories (although US whiskey is clearly leading the growth charge). Year over year, lots more liquor has been flying off the shelf. That's supply catching up with demand, incrementally. The production rate is rising faster than the DRINKING rate, which is probably already lower than the sales rate. Regarding recessions and depression drinking, recessions WILL hit the $50+ bottle market where it hurts (although it could use some pressure relief lately). If the country has a bad economic downturn, people may drink harder, but they'll also be buying the more plentiful and affordable bottom shelfers which are easy to replenish as they are usually 4 years or less production lag, and we're already 4 years down the road of major expansion. Even if the US had it's hardest drinking year ever, they couldn't staunch the flow of JBW that Beam could bottle if it put all it's young barrels into that. Jack Daniels has the stocks to supply America turning to the bottle. The numbers don't lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: The numbers don't lie. Exactly! Indeed, the numbers don’t lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, The Black Tot said: Or regular middle class Americans are building home bars with 20 or 30 choices where before they kept 3 or 4. And restaurants and bars recently expanded and diversified their whiskey menus and had to build inventories. As I've stated earlier in this thread, personally I believe much more whiskey is being purchased than is being consumed, and it is accumulating around the country, despite flying off of liquor store shelves. * * * * * The production rate is rising faster than the DRINKING rate, which is probably already lower than the sales rate. Regarding recessions and depression drinking, recessions WILL hit the $50+ bottle market where it hurts (although it could use some pressure relief lately). If the country has a bad economic downturn, people may drink harder, but they'll also be buying the more plentiful and affordable bottom shelfers which are easy to replenish as they are usually 4 years or less production lag, and we're already 4 years down the road of major expansion. Even if the US had it's hardest drinking year ever, they couldn't staunch the flow of JBW that Beam could bottle if it put all it's young barrels into that. Jack Daniels has the stocks to supply America turning to the bottle. The numbers don't lie. Agree. I SHOULD have written, "Either we are PURCHASING a lot more or new markets are opening or both." -- as the floor in my dining room and some shelves in my basement can prove (not to mention the trunk of my car). While circa 2000 I used to have one "rye" for cocktails (usually OO 80 hahaha) and one or two bourbons, I now have many multiples of each, not counting the back-ups "just in case" or the couple brands I have stockpiled (like a honey barrel # of HMcK 10YO). AND, it is true, hard numbers do not lie. I STILL am glad I'm not a Maotai salesperson trying to break in to the US market. Japanese whiskey which we all used to laugh at? Well, I have this shelf I have dedicated . . . Chinese bee (edit - should be BEER) is another exception, especially from the old German enclave in (formerly Port Arthur) Lushunkou District. YUM! Edited October 20, 2019 by Harry in WashDC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 I don't think bunkers like OURS Harry are indicative of the population , but I do think that whiskey coming into fashion did increase the scope of the general bar of the drinking enthusiast. And bunker builders like us, collectively, do have a heavy impact on the usual suspect allocated items. I do think about the serious barrel picking clubs when I think of purchase rate vs drinking rate. Many members of these clubs are also members here. I've met several members who suggest that buying at a substantial clip is a big part of the membership. Presumably faster than their drinking rates. As someone who has collected several more things than just spirits, I know a thing or two about how space runs out. I wonder what plans the barrel picking whales have for adjusting their purchases when the cases stack to the ceiling. I expect there will in the medium term of 7ish years be more space and honey barrel access for the rest of us. Way more rack houses means way more sweet spots after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flahute Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, The Black Tot said: I don't think bunkers like OURS Harry are indicative of the population , but I do think that whiskey coming into fashion did increase the scope of the general bar of the drinking enthusiast. And bunker builders like us, collectively, do have a heavy impact on the usual suspect allocated items. I do think about the serious barrel picking clubs when I think of purchase rate vs drinking rate. Many members of these clubs are also members here. I've met several members who suggest that buying at a substantial clip is a big part of the membership. Presumably faster than their drinking rates. As someone who has collected several more things than just spirits, I know a thing or two about how space runs out. I wonder what plans the barrel picking whales have for adjusting their purchases when the cases stack to the ceiling. I expect there will in the medium term of 7ish years be more space and honey barrel access for the rest of us. Way more rack houses means way more sweet spots after all. You are talking about people like me and if I'm being honest I'm telling you that I have too much bourbon which means I'm going to be cutting back on my purchases while becoming way, way more picky about the barrels I'll be willing to select. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macdad Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 I have not been around long enough to make any observations on the boom, but I agree with Harry in WashDC. They are playing with the vertical axis scale to make things look more dramatic, IMHO. Still quite an increase, mind you. I wish the company and industry I worked for saw this kind of growth! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercharger Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, macdad said: I have not been around long enough to make any observations on the boom, but I agree with Harry in WashDC. They are playing with the vertical axis scale to make things look more dramatic, IMHO. Still quite an increase, mind you. I wish the company and industry I worked for saw this kind of growth! Number don’t lie....unless you want them to! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 1 hour ago, flahute said: You are talking about people like me and if I'm being honest I'm telling you that I have too much bourbon which means I'm going to be cutting back on my purchases while becoming way, way more picky about the barrels I'll be willing to select. I was - in the most congenial and respectful of manners. It has struck me that many of your bretheren after a few years must be at least nearing this point due to the very format of memberships. Heavy buying is a way in, but it also forces one's way out. Access leads to overload. It may even be said that faster buying leads to earlier understanding that all bunkers must at some point reach their limit. I have viewed the bubble as that point in bourbon history where you had to be connected to get the best bottles. But also the period in which many of the connected bought more than they can drink in their lifetimes (I am not singling you out, Steve). So their impact may ultimately be paradoxically lessened in a few years when their bourbon rooms are bursting, and the production wave hits. Hoarding becomes prevalent in the presence of scarcity. Who knows, bunkers may be unfashionable in a few years when it will be hard to explain to the whippersnappers that there was a time when great bourbon was hard to get... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Loblaw Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 2 hours ago, macdad said: I have not been around long enough to make any observations on the boom, but I agree with Harry in WashDC. They are playing with the vertical axis scale to make things look more dramatic, IMHO. Still quite an increase, mind you. I wish the company and industry I worked for saw this kind of growth! You know 90% of statistics are made up . . . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 38 minutes ago, Bob_Loblaw said: You know 90% of statistics are made up . . . Bob, you cite the graphs above. What are you saying about them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonNit Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 You know 90% of statistics are made up . . . Yeah interesting point. He’s trying to say that the graph from the Distilled Spirits Council is intentionally misleading by starting the y axis at 13K instead of 0. It’s nice growth over 20 years but less than double and not the exponential growth that it appears to show with the scale as listed from the original chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonNit Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 I have not been around long enough to make any observations on the boom, but I agree with Harry in WashDC. They are playing with the vertical axis scale to make things look more dramatic, IMHO. Still quite an increase, mind you. I wish the company and industry I worked for saw this kind of growth! You know 90% of statistics are made up . . . Not made up just visually manipulated to get there point across. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 6 hours ago, HoustonNit said: Not made up just visually manipulated to get there point across. Right. That’s a huge distinction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob_Loblaw Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 8 hours ago, smokinjoe said: Bob, you cite the graphs above. What are you saying about them? 8 hours ago, HoustonNit said: Not made up just visually manipulated to get there point across. Oops. Really just a tongue in cheek comment that statistics in general are often misleading, manipulated, or perhaps incomplete. Failed attempt at humor with my made up statistic about made up statistics. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Just now, Bob_Loblaw said: Failed attempt at humor with my made up statistic about made up statistics. Heehee! Well, you made up for it with that one! LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoustonNit Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Heehee! Well, you made up for it with that one! LOL!Ha, “made up”. I never ever do stuff like this with statistics to get my point across at work... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcgumbohead Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 17 hours ago, flahute said: You are talking about people like me and if I'm being honest I'm telling you that I have too much bourbon which means I'm going to be cutting back on my purchases while becoming way, way more picky about the barrels I'll be willing to select. I resemble that remark!! This is exactly where I am Steve. I have what I like in sufficient (at the very least) quantity and now purchase VERY selectively. The items I have in quantity though I would repeat were I back in time so I am very glad to have them and glad that I will be enjoying them into the foreseeable future. That said I wouldn't want me for a future customer as purchases going forward will be few and far between. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFan Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 8 hours ago, Bob_Loblaw said: Oops. Really just a tongue in cheek comment that statistics in general are often misleading, manipulated, or perhaps incomplete. Failed attempt at humor with my made up statistic about made up statistics. Bob, nothing to apologize for because you were right on the money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulO Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Here's another aspect - major grocery chains have gotten into the liquor business. They have a lot of inventory too. I was in a large grocery store the other day. I was surprised to see a baker's rack type shelf standing next to the bourbon area. On that shelf they had: KY Owl $119.99, Yellowstone in a tube $99.99, Yippe-Ki-Yay $79.99, and some other pricey mystery juice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richnimrod Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 9 hours ago, PaulO said: Here's another aspect - major grocery chains have gotten into the liquor business. They have a lot of inventory too. I was in a large grocery store the other day. I was surprised to see a baker's rack type shelf standing next to the bourbon area. On that shelf they had: KY Owl $119.99, Yellowstone in a tube $99.99, Yippe-Ki-Yay $79.99, and some other pricey mystery juice. Would they have allowed you to buy the entire rack, including all the bottles displayed? I can't imagine how you resisted such a temptation..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macdad Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 On 10/21/2019 at 9:09 AM, Bob_Loblaw said: Oops. Really just a tongue in cheek comment that statistics in general are often misleading, manipulated, or perhaps incomplete. Failed attempt at humor with my made up statistic about made up statistics. I got your humor! Made me laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FasterHorses Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) I think for "us" it has peaked. For the industry...it's in it's infancy Edited October 23, 2019 by FasterHorses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulO Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 On 10/22/2019 at 7:43 AM, Richnimrod said: Would they have allowed you to buy the entire rack, including all the bottles displayed? I can't imagine how you resisted such a temptation..... Now I remember. They had Heaven's Door too. I opted for Eittenhouse BIB @ $20.99. Seriously, some of these stores should hire me as a consultant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now