Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[geclbxf]

5 hours ago, flahute said:

I saw this as well and agree 100% with the author. It's been the case for a couple years now.

 

I remember about 5 years ago telling my whiskey friends (the ones I trusted) that good single barrels / store picks were where the action was if you got shut out of the LE's. I was right for about 2-3 years after. Then it all changed. Luckily I stocked up while the getting was good.

I'm also still picking good barrels with my group and my local so I'm still adding to the bunker. Outside my group and my local though I don't trust any of other store picks out there. The great barrels are so far and few between. And I've always, always, always, hated the stickers and wax. 

All great points - and then there are the craft barrel picks - some are REALLY bad.

[fosmith]

8 hours ago, flahute said:

I saw this as well and agree 100% with the author. It's been the case for a couple years now.

 

I remember about 5 years ago telling my whiskey friends (the ones I trusted) that good single barrels / store picks were where the action was if you got shut out of the LE's. I was right for about 2-3 years after. Then it all changed. Luckily I stocked up while the getting was good.

I'm also still picking good barrels with my group and my local so I'm still adding to the bunker. Outside my group and my local though I don't trust any of other store picks out there. The great barrels are so far and few between. And I've always, always, always, hated the stickers and wax. 

Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical of picks from large retailers like Bevmo, TW or Safeway and small mom and pops because I'm not convinced of their standards for making a selection.  However, I buy most of my bourbon from K&L and I've never been disappointed with any of their private barrels.  Their spirits buyers are skilled and dedicated to quality, IMO. 

[flahute]

1 hour ago, fosmith said:

Yeah, I'm kind of skeptical of picks from large retailers like Bevmo, TW or Safeway and small mom and pops because I'm not convinced of their standards for making a selection.  However, I buy most of my bourbon from K&L and I've never been disappointed with any of their private barrels.  Their spirits buyers are skilled and dedicated to quality, IMO. 

One thing I forgot to mention about the big chains, and to your point, a number of years back a now very well known representative of one of the big distilleries (and I won't name names so as to not get anyone in trouble) was doing a West Coast tour to meet various accounts and do barrel picks via samples. My local signed up for one and we did it at a restaurant and said representative bought us all lunch after. Upon watching us take our time, questioning, and discussing among ourselves they said how refreshing it was to see actual deliberation. They had been at one of the chains the previous day and said the tasters blasted through the samples and made a quick decision (and that it wasn't the best one). I've been skeptical of those chain store picks ever since then!

[kemosabe]

For years I was in a Whiskey Club that was affiliated with a major retailer.  I participated in many barrel picks for bourbon from Four Roses, Old Forester, Knob Creek, etc.  We would typically receive distiller samples from 3-4 barrels, taste them and rate them individually, then debate the merits of each barrel before coming to a common conclusion.

 

We usually agreed on the best barrel, but there were times when we were not offered a "honey barrel" in the sample set.  So we chose the best of the what was available at that time.  Hence some store picks were not all that special.

Other times the retailer's "store pick" was actually chosen by the distiller itself - and simply labelled at the factory, "picked by ______" when that wasn't actually the case. 

 

So yes, there can be a wide variation between store pick quality.  But I've rarely, if ever, tasted a store pick bourbon that was sub-standard to its "normal" version sitting on the shelf.

[mbroo5880i]

15 hours ago, geclbxf said:

All great points - and then there are the craft barrel picks - some are REALLY bad.

One of the local chains has made some pretty horrendous picks of Indiana craft barrels.  They sold them off at less than half price.  I bought one.  I mixed it with pours from so many different bottles just so it would go to waste.  

[CoyL]

Good read, I am new here and was just sifting through this topic.  It looks like the anticipation of a peak has been going on for quite some time.  I don't know if we are at a peak quite yet though, here in Ohio it seems to be 100% crazy still.  I see lines at our liquor stores forming at 7am on stocking days, this is two hours before doors open.  I would love to have the ability to grab a bottle of my favorites, easily, but on the other hand, you have to admit, it makes collecting a bit fun.  Stumbling onto that hard to find bottle is really a cool thing.

[flahute]

18 hours ago, CoyL said:

Good read, I am new here and was just sifting through this topic.  It looks like the anticipation of a peak has been going on for quite some time.  I don't know if we are at a peak quite yet though, here in Ohio it seems to be 100% crazy still.  I see lines at our liquor stores forming at 7am on stocking days, this is two hours before doors open.  I would love to have the ability to grab a bottle of my favorites, easily, but on the other hand, you have to admit, it makes collecting a bit fun.  Stumbling onto that hard to find bottle is really a cool thing.

We keep anticipating the peak while missing badly. Nobody really knows.  

[fishnbowljoe]

FWIW, and as I’ve said before, I think the boom has peaked for the most part. Distilleries have been expanding/updating, and have been cranking out more and more distillate the last few years. I believe there are people out there that are seeing their opportunities to make extra $$$ off the boom slipping away, and these “taters”, “tater distributors” and “tater stores” are perpetuating the boom phenomenon.  
 

Example: I stopped at a store a week ago that I don’t frequent much anymore because of their prices. When I questioned the price of one product, the manager said something along the lines, “Hey, I’ve gotta make a buck too. I can’t leave all the profits for the folks on the secondary market.” ‘Nuff  Ced. 
 

Biba! Joe

[smokinjoe]

American Whiskey crushed it again in 2020.  As TBT posted this DISCUS graph showing sales growth in the category of nearly 2,000,000 cases for the year!  
 

 

[flahute]

2 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

American Whiskey crushed it again in 2020.  As TBT posted this DISCUS graph showing sales growth in the category of nearly 2,000,000 cases for the year!  
 

 

Yep. When that graph levels off I’ll start to think we are close to the peak. Until then I believe we are still on the way up. 

[PhantomLamb]

21 hours ago, flahute said:

Yep. When that graph levels off I’ll start to think we are close to the peak. Until then I believe we are still on the way up. 

Amen and frankly I can't see that happening in the next 5 years, even with increased production.  I just see taters being more "tater-y".

[Jazzhead]

I will pick up a barrel pick from time to time,  but I focus my attention mainly on "small batch"  blends of barrels put together by the distillery itself.   I think small batch is the most likely road to finding  real quality,  since single barrels vary,  especially when "picked" by LS owners from a fixed number of choices.   I'd rather trust the experts at the distillery to find the honey barrels and blend them to achieve the desired taste profile.

[flahute]

2 hours ago, Jazzhead said:

I will pick up a barrel pick from time to time,  but I focus my attention mainly on "small batch"  blends of barrels put together by the distillery itself.   I think small batch is the most likely road to finding  real quality,  since single barrels vary,  especially when "picked" by LS owners from a fixed number of choices.   I'd rather trust the experts at the distillery to find the honey barrels and blend them to achieve the desired taste profile.

I'd say both yes and no to this. Small batch is the most likely road to finding consistency. It may or may not be the road to finding quality depending on the barrels available. In the current over stretched market younger and younger barrels are being included in the blends. True honey barrels are very far and few between compared to before and most of those are being reserved for single barrel programs, special releases, and higher end brands. (So a product such as OF1920 would qualify for your criteria whereas Larceny, to my taste buds, fails miserably.)

Single barrels do indeed vary so it's all about knowing the pickers and their palates. In my case, (and I'm very, very fortunate) the picker is always me so only great barrels come into my house.

[Jazzhead]

2 hours ago, flahute said:

I'd say both yes and no to this. Small batch is the most likely road to finding consistency. It may or may not be the road to finding quality depending on the barrels available. In the current over stretched market younger and younger barrels are being included in the blends. True honey barrels are very far and few between compared to before and most of those are being reserved for single barrel programs, special releases, and higher end brands. (So a product such as OF1920 would qualify for your criteria whereas Larceny, to my taste buds, fails miserably.)

Single barrels do indeed vary so it's all about knowing the pickers and their palates. In my case, (and I'm very, very fortunate) the picker is always me so only great barrels come into my house.

It makes sense that honey barrels would be reserved for single barrel programs,  although they'd also be reserved,  I'd think,  for the higher-end batched programs,  where you get in addition the distiller's or blender's specific vision,  as well as consistency.   

 

The other day I tried side by side the Smoke Wagon Small Batch and Smoke Wagon Uncut and Unfiltered.   Terrific examples of small batch blending,   in this case of MGP high-rye bourbon.    It was interesting to learn that  with the Small Batch,  the blender deliberately batched both older and younger barrels,   being of the view that age dulls the rye spice that plays such a role in the taste of younger bourbon.    All I can say is that both of these are more balanced and sumptuous than other MGP blends.      They are pretty scarce;  don't pass 'em by because they're so doggone drinkable.          

Edited June 29, 2021 by Jazzhead

[M777]

Here in IL the it’s getting absurd. Walked into a store on delivery day and people were going nuts over regular BT, walked past them and snagged an EC sp off the shelf. Also seeing an influx of a younger crowd from the craft beer scene buying up bourbon for consumption, flipping and trading for rare beers. Ever since RR 13yr became a hot trend on social media, the taters moved in on the next best thing, RR sib has become very scarce here. Thankfully my bunker is packed with RR sp’s from last year. 

Edited June 30, 2021 by M777

[JCwhammie]

On a local FB group over the past few weeks I've seen people offering $250 for a 4R PS BP SiB, a guy trying to trade that same bottle for a 2020 GTS, and folks offering $125 for specific batches of Bookers. I just don't get it. 

Meanwhile, while I was on the road over the weekend I got excited to see OF100 for $17.89. 

[mal00768]

I walked into my favorite store a few weeks ago for a bottle of RR sib or 4R PS. Nada. 2019ish they would announce these barrel picks and nobody seemed to care. I would walk in the morning of the release and be first and only person in line. (fortunately WT KS is still being overlooked?)

 

Now they do surprise releases via Instagram and their store app. Sold out within 20 minutes because I guess people have nothing better to do than watch their phones all day.

 

It's annoying. But I don't need a bunker of booze. And thank goodness for WT 101, EC bib, and scotch.

 

 

[fishnbowljoe]

One thing that surprise me a little is that MM products seem to be in abundance at most stores I visit. Way back in 2008 or 2009, before MM/Beam Inc was purchased by Suntory, I visited MM. They were expanding way back then. New rick houses were being built, and a new still was being added. Was this good planning ahead of the curve, or ???
 

Either way, I’m glad I chose to revisit my gateway bourbon (MM) a while back.That’s lead to my purchasing several products from Maker’s. It’s been a pleasant surprise. Most surprises during the “boom” have been disappointing. If the taters are overlooking Maker’s, I hope they continue to do so.

 

Biba! Joe
 

 

[smokinjoe]

Maker’s had been “sold out” for years at that time.  The mantra in those days was “Maker’s makes everything they sell, and sells everything they make”.  So, it was a necessity for them to get an early start on increasing capacity early if they wanted to keep up with demand and grow their business.  

[fishnbowljoe]

1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

Maker’s had been “sold out” for years at that time.  The mantra in those days was “Maker’s makes everything they sell, and sells everything they make”.  So, it was a necessity for them to get an early start on increasing capacity early if they wanted to keep up with demand and grow their business.  

Yeah, I agree. There was one hiccup for them though. I had forgotten about the fiasco when they were running low on distillate and decided to proof down MM. It was kinda odd that after a relatively short period of low stocks, MM showed up more plentiful than ever. Crazy stuff.

[mbroo5880i]

On 6/29/2021 at 3:58 PM, flahute said:

I'd say both yes and no to this. Small batch is the most likely road to finding consistency. It may or may not be the road to finding quality depending on the barrels available. In the current over stretched market younger and younger barrels are being included in the blends. True honey barrels are very far and few between compared to before and most of those are being reserved for single barrel programs, special releases, and higher end brands. (So a product such as OF1920 would qualify for your criteria whereas Larceny, to my taste buds, fails miserably.)

Single barrels do indeed vary so it's all about knowing the pickers and their palates. In my case, (and I'm very, very fortunate) the picker is always me so only great barrels come into my house.

A common refrain is you need to always trust the palate of the picker when it comes to single barrels.  If it is you, it is a win-win.  You know what you like and probably find commonality more often than not with those you pick with you.

[fishnbowljoe]

FWIW, there’s an interesting article in this months Bourbon Review. 
 

Nearly 10 Million Barrels Resting In Kentucky - Is That Good?

[flahute]

2 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Is That Good?

Only time will tell.

[TehRegion219]

2 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Nearly 10 Million Barrels Resting In Kentucky - Is That Good?

 

How many of them are “honey” barrels??

[fishnbowljoe]

39 minutes ago, TehRegion219 said:

 

How many of them are “honey” barrels??

LOL!  Probably not enough. I guess only time will tell.

 

Biba! Joe