Which one will fall next?

[flahute]

6 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

 

 

The Baker's McKenna and ER10 suggestions seem pretty obvious. I'll go another direction though and theorize that Willett will come out with NAS WFE bourbon & rye bottles, and all age stated WFEs will become gift shop only. They will price these new NAS offerings higher than their current non-WFE products like Noah's Mill, in the $70-80 range.

Not going to happen.

The majority of age stated WFE's are already gift shop only.

They'll keep supporting the KBD brands with the non age stated bourbon.

[Old Dusty]

6 hours ago, flahute said:

Not going to happen.

The majority of age stated WFE's are already gift shop only.

They'll keep supporting the KBD brands with the non age stated bourbon.

And I hope their own make will eventually go in age stated WFE. Especially the wheated mash which-at least straight from the barrel-is fantastic. 

[BottledInBond]

6 hours ago, flahute said:

Not going to happen.

The majority of age stated WFE's are already gift shop only.

They'll keep supporting the KBD brands with the non age stated bourbon.

They sell lots of age stated rye WFE bottles in regular distribution currently. they sell age stated WFE bourbon in stores via private barrels currently. I certainly could be wrong but I suspect that they will want to get a NAS rye on shelves to give themselves more flexibility in blending as their own rye stocks mature. Maybe that will be a new brand creation and not WFE. Keep in mind that Willett has also played the AS to NAS game at least with Noah's Mill not too long ago. they also have proven to want to charge higher and higher premium prices recently at the gift shop, so I just think they probably want to find an ongoing way to have a higher price point bottle in regular distribution. have been wrong before, but like I said they have made NAS and price hikes within the last couple years so I don't know why they wouldn't make more

[Limegoldconvertible68]

My fear is that the producers will quit the Single Barrel Select programs all together.  

[dSculptor]

If we are losing AS on even 6 yr olds now,...( I just bought a FC which used to be 6 yr AS,) what are they filling it with now.. 2-4 yr?

 

I still have a big problem with these distilleries who are removing AS's and still calling it the same stuff, how can they say they can get the same profile from a 8-10 yr. old as a 12? (Just an example) I just did a blind SbS with the old EC and the new stuff, and it's a different animal all together, close but no cigar as they say.

 

The other day I was at a grocery store who has a pretty good selection. They still had a tag with the EC12 on it and a little quote as to how good EC12 is. On the opposite isle there was a lady who was stocking other liquor, and I told her that they really couldn't advertise the EC as EC12 anymore, I showed her what I was talking about and she said thanks, not sure if she removed it or not, but basically it's false advertising at this point.

[jeffrey r]

18 minutes ago, dSculptor said:

If we are losing AS on even 6 yr olds now,...( I just bought a FC which used to be 6 yr AS,) what are they filling it with now.. 2-4 yr?

 

I still have a big problem with these distilleries who are removing AS's and still calling it the same stuff, how can they say they can get the same profile from a 8-10 yr. old as a 12? (Just an example) I just did a blind SbS with the old EC and the new stuff, and it's a different animal all together, close but no cigar as they say.

 

The other day I was at a grocery store who has a pretty good selection. They still had a tag with the EC12 on it and a little quote as to how good EC12 is. On the opposite isle there was a lady who was stocking other liquor, and I told her that they really couldn't advertise the EC as EC12 anymore, I showed her what I was talking about and she said thanks, not sure if she removed it or not, but basically it's false advertising at this point.

 

It's a problem all around.  Just no good losing all of these age statements, no matter what the distilleries say.  Age simply means a whole lot in the bourbon universe.  EWSB simply can't taste the same in its recent iterations at 7-8 years old, compared to the previous long-time standard of 10 years old.  Nope--ain't gonna happen.

 

As to your other point--stores, in-store and on their websites, simply can't keep up (or don't want to keep up, or are incapable of keeping up) with all of these lost age statements.  You reference FC--more stores than not still advertise "Fighting Cock 6 Year".  Basil Hayden's is still listed all over the place as "Basil Hayden's 8 Year".  I feel bad for the stores who are simply misleading the public, inadvertantly or not, and I feel bad for the people out there who don't know better.  But that is what it is.   

[flahute]

5 hours ago, Old Dusty said:

And I hope their own make will eventually go in age stated WFE. Especially the wheated mash which-at least straight from the barrel-is fantastic. 

It already is with the 2 and 3 yr old Small Batch Ryes on the market and the 4 yr old bourbon that has primarily been a gift shop release. (Very limited amounts have made it to stores).

4 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

They sell lots of age stated rye WFE bottles in regular distribution currently. they sell age stated WFE bourbon in stores via private barrels currently. I certainly could be wrong but I suspect that they will want to get a NAS rye on shelves to give themselves more flexibility in blending as their own rye stocks mature. Maybe that will be a new brand creation and not WFE. Keep in mind that Willett has also played the AS to NAS game at least with Noah's Mill not too long ago. they also have proven to want to charge higher and higher premium prices recently at the gift shop, so I just think they probably want to find an ongoing way to have a higher price point bottle in regular distribution. have been wrong before, but like I said they have made NAS and price hikes within the last couple years so I don't know why they wouldn't make more

Age stated WFE private barrels are practically non existent right now. There have been a couple exceptions for friends of Drew, but the overall private barrel program is still suspended.

The entire premise of the WFE line (with minor exceptions) is barrel strength, age stated, with barrel info written on the label unless it's small batch rye. This is their premium line and they are able to charge secondary prices right out of the gift shop because they provide all the information that geeks need (except distiller, of course, in the sourced barrels). They would lose their ability to charge that much without an age statement. I highly doubt they would confuse the WFE line with something NAS.

The place for their own distillate without an age statement is the KBD line. They are already transitioning. The Old Bardstown label now has a 90 proof and a BIB that is Willett distilled. They already charge plenty for the likes of Noah's Mill without an age statement so if they wanted to go with an NAS rye they'd likely find a place for it in KBD's line.

 

You never know though. There's no current rye among KBD's labels and creating a new label costs money so perhaps they could go with a more mass market NAS rye in the WFE lineup. There'd be a lot of griping amongst the fanboys if they did though.

[smokinjoe]

50 minutes ago, dSculptor said:

If we are losing AS on even 6 yr olds now,...( I just bought a FC which used to be 6 yr AS,) what are they filling it with now.. 2-4 yr?

 

I still have a big problem with these distilleries who are removing AS's and still calling it the same stuff, how can they say they can get the same profile from a 8-10 yr. old as a 12? (Just an example) I just did a blind SbS with the old EC and the new stuff, and it's a different animal all together, close but no cigar as they say.

 

 

The FC has to at least 4 years old if not age stated.  So, impossible to be 2 yr.  

 

I'm confused by your statement on your SBS with the two EC's.  "Different animal all together" seems quite different in meaning than "close, but no cigar"?

[Kepler]

Eagle Rare 10 yr at the current value price of ~$29 would be the one I'd worry about the most.  My question is, if they remove the age statement from ER what distinguishes it from regular Buffalo Trace?  Why would anybody buy it if they take the age statement off.

[Kepler]

23 hours ago, starhopper said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see sub-$30 Bottled-In-Bond bourbons being discontinued over the next few years.

I also agree that the inexpensive BiB are probably at risk.  They may or may not get discontinued but they may move up the price ladder (see OF 1897 the "premium" BiB).

[flahute]

14 minutes ago, Kepler said:

Eagle Rare 10 yr at the current value price of ~$29 would be the one I'd worry about the most.  My question is, if they remove the age statement from ER what distinguishes it from regular Buffalo Trace?  Why would anybody buy it if they take the age statement off.

Given how BT already operates, I'd think they would allocate before removing the age statement.

[Paddy]

33 minutes ago, Kepler said:

Eagle Rare 10 yr at the current value price of ~$29 would be the one I'd worry about the most.  My question is, if they remove the age statement from ER what distinguishes it from regular Buffalo Trace?  Why would anybody buy it if they take the age statement off.

Couple of proof points, age, and warehouse location would still give a discerning palate it a bit of a different profile.  It'd basically be similar to the difference we discern in the mashbill #2 brands.

 

Question is, noting that some here are currently paying two and three times face value for a ETL, would it be worth it?   

 

[tanstaafl2]

14 minutes ago, Paddy said:

Couple of proof points, age, and warehouse location would still give a discerning palate it a bit of a different profile.  It'd basically be similar to the difference we discern in the mashbill #2 brands.

 

Question is, noting that some here are currently paying two and three times face value for a ETL, would it be worth it?   

 

 

Don't know that ER has quite the cachet of ETL. Yet. They will have to experience a "shortage" and have it be allocated awhile, and perhaps get a celebrity endorsement or two fawning over it, to make it appeal to the newly infatuated bourbonistas!

[Phil T]

On 12/21/2016 at 4:07 PM, starhopper said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see sub-$30 Bottled-In-Bond bourbons being discontinued over the next few years.

Not sure I agree star. Bonded seems to be fashionable again. Beam, Old Forester, and Willett, along with small distilleries Tom's Foolery and Kings County, have introduced BIBs in last couple of years. And, although you said sub $30, I think they are all safe because of their rebirth,  regrowth and popularity. 

Edited December 22, 2016 by Phil T

[Paddy]

1 minute ago, tanstaafl2 said:

 

Don't know that ER has quite the cachet of ETL. Yet. They will have to experience a "shortage" and have it be allocated awhile, and perhaps get a celebrity endorsement or two fawning over it, to make it appeal to the newly infatuated bourbonistas!

My point may have been a bit lost in the comparison.  Given the 'bit' of difference in ETL, AAA*10, HPR, etc., it certainly isn't worth the ridiculous markup (IMO).  I don't anticipate ER ever getting that out of line with the BT, but with the same subtle differences noted above, my question was will it even be worth the additional 5 bucks per bottle? 

 

With the current product, it's a no brainer!  Without 10 years on it, probably not.

[Louisiana]

 

Read through this thread & it occurred to me that it doesn't really matter. I have several bottles of different Private Barrel ER10's put away in the bunker & Single Barrel ETL's that were purchased over the last few years. They are really really good, but are only on par if that with more recent purchases. I just bought a case of each SAOS 7, BT, KC120, RR110, & 1792FP within the last few months. 4 were private barrels & 1 small batch that are all damn good. I mean awesome barrels. There is so much out there right now that will meet anyones bourbon needs. I think the future is really bright. BTAC & numerous other LE's were also purchased & consumed by me this year. The "Good Stuff". Ive drank them all & will honestly say that they're not that much better. The one word that comes to mind would be "Unique"  & super high quality. Private Barrels offer the same deal to me. Then again I tend to be optimistic. Kind of a glass half full. 

 

Cheers, Jeff

 

 

[BottledInBond]

1 hour ago, Paddy said:

My point may have been a bit lost in the comparison.  Given the 'bit' of difference in ETL, AAA*10, HPR, etc., it certainly isn't worth the ridiculous markup (IMO).  I don't anticipate ER ever getting that out of line with the BT, but with the same subtle differences noted above, my question was will it even be worth the additional 5 bucks per bottle? 

 

With the current product, it's a no brainer!  Without 10 years on it, probably not.

The funny thing is, for whatever reason, at a major liquor store within two miles of my house, BT sells for $3 more per bottle than ER10 for some reason I can't quite understand

[tanstaafl2]

1 hour ago, Paddy said:

My point may have been a bit lost in the comparison.  Given the 'bit' of difference in ETL, AAA*10, HPR, etc., it certainly isn't worth the ridiculous markup (IMO).  I don't anticipate ER ever getting that out of line with the BT, but with the same subtle differences noted above, my question was will it even be worth the additional 5 bucks per bottle? 

 

With the current product, it's a no brainer!  Without 10 years on it, probably not.

 

Yeah, I was just running my mouth, umm, fingers, since it is pretty slow here this afternoon!

[JoeTerp]

14 hours ago, Limegoldconvertible68 said:

My fear is that the producers will quit the Single Barrel Select programs all together.  

I doubt this as it would be a major disadvantage against the other producers.  The really big stores want something unique they can offer their customers and these barrel selections fit the bill without being unicorns that even they get a limited allocation of.  I'm on the Binny's mailing list and I feel like they must have received 10 barrel picks of KCSB.  There's just no way that they would market and push that product so aggressively if it was a random barrel the distributor got them.  They guarantee Beam a huge sale and that would likely go to a competitor if they stopped offering the store selections to them.

[starhopper]

7 hours ago, Phil T said:

Not sure I agree star. Bonded seems to be fashionable again. Beam, Old Forester, and Willett, along with small distilleries Tom's Foolery and Kings County, have introduced BIBs in last couple of years. And, although you said sub $30, I think they are all safe because of their rebirth,  regrowth and popularity. 

I hope you are right - that would be great if they'd leave those alone for now!

[mosugoji64]

On December 21, 2016 at 2:07 PM, starhopper said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see sub-$30 Bottled-In-Bond bourbons being discontinued over the next few years.

 

I, too, think we're more likely to see additional BIB labels cropping up since the designation has achieved some hipster cred and it's much easier for distillers to find ready stocks of 4-year-old whiskey. Price creep is more of a concern for me, but that's inevitable. 

And I REALLY hope the dire predictions for HMK 10 and HH6 don't pan out. I could stock up on HMK pretty quickly but don't have ready access to HH6. That would require a plane ticket!

[Paddy]

6 hours ago, tanstaafl2 said:

 

Yeah, I was just running my mouth, umm, fingers, since it is pretty slow here this afternoon!

.........and I fully condone that type of activity! 

 

7 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

The funny thing is, for whatever reason, at a major liquor store within two miles of my house, BT sells for $3 more per bottle than ER10 for some reason I can't quite understand

Nor do I.  Maybe a supply/demand issue, but everyone's palate is different to some extent (and BT has done a great job marketing their 'namesake' brand).    

[dSculptor]

12 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

The FC has to at least 4 years old if not age stated.  So, impossible to be 2 yr.  

 

I'm confused by your statement on your SBS with the two EC's.  "Different animal all together" seems quite different in meaning than "close, but no cigar"?

Yeh, you're right Joe...FC has to be at least 4 yrs old, just a brain fart I guess, as far as my other statement ,ok that may have been a contradiction in terms ,but I think you know what I was trying to convey... they are two separate bourbons,(EC, EC12) the fact that they claim they can match the same profile with younger stuff, it just ain't  happenin'... of course that's just my humble opinion.

 

I'm curious to try a SbS of the new KC vs. the old KC., I'm pretty sure they aren't going to be matches.

 

If Chevy takes a Cadillac and removes all the good stuff from it, they still don't call it a Cadillac ..maybe they call it a Nova, but it's still a Chevy.

 

[meadeweber]

I think the next to lose its age statement will be ER10 or ECBP.

[smokinjoe]

13 hours ago, dSculptor said:

Yeh, you're right Joe...FC has to be at least 4 yrs old, just a brain fart I guess, as far as my other statement ,ok that may have been a contradiction in terms ,but I think you know what I was trying to convey... they are two separate bourbons,(EC, EC12) the fact that they claim they can match the same profile with younger stuff, it just ain't  happenin'... of course that's just my humble opinion.

 

 

Their message was not that they would match the same profile, but rather the change would help them provide  better quality and maintain a more consistent profile.