PVW Drinking vs Hoardinng Question

[Gorzo]

Last night had some people over and someone saw an open bottle of PVW15 on my bar.  He questioned why I would open a $1000 bottle of booze and not sell it. Told him it was a gift and was meant to be enjoyed.  Now I do have a collection of older stuff that I do not intend to open, but will say I will drink it before I would flip it.  So I am not an individual that looks down on collecting or even hoarding for that matter.  

 

Anyway, him questioning why I would have opened my PVW leads me to my question. What percentage of PVW bottles that go out to the public actually get cracked open?  I am not sure it's much over 33%.

 

Not to be a dick, but not concerned with what you do as an individual or what bourbon means to you.  Save the I open up all my bottles and share them with friends comments. That's great,  but don't care.  Looking for perspective towards the entire "hobby" as a whole. 

[BigRich]

Not to be a dick, but not concerned with what you do as an individual or what bourbon means to you.  Save the I open up all my bottles and share them with friends comments. That's great,  but don't care.  Looking for perspective towards the entire "hobby" as a whole. 

Part one of the paragraph seems to be in direct conflict with the question at the end. What exactly is your question?


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[FasterHorses]

Id estimate its less than 25% in todays environment. It seems there is a disproportionate amount of bottles that go to a small population of “connected” individuals. So i would surmise that the people that say they open and drink theirs, have 5-10 unopened for every one they drink. Just my perception. 

The ones who happen to win one bottle or get lucky are probably going to hang on to bottle number one until they happen to obtain bottle 2 or 3. 

This is just a guess based in what ive seen.

[Gorzo]

My question is what percentage of PVW that goes out to the public actually gets opened?  

 

The first part  of my post was more to say what got me thinking about this and to clarify that I don't care what some one does with their stash, flip, hoard, drink or collect. 

[Gorzo]

5 minutes ago, FasterHorses said:

Id estimate its less than 25% in todays environment. It seems there is a disproportionate amount of bottles that go to a small population of “connected” individuals. So i would surmise that the people that say they open and drink theirs, have 5-10 unopened for every one they drink. Just my perception. 

The ones who happen to win one bottle or get lucky are probably going to hang on to bottle number one until they happen to obtain bottle 2 or 3. 

This is just a guess based in what ive seen.

Not sure they have to have 5-10 bottles, but we are definitely on the same page.  Not sure how much winning a lottery or being connected changes things. Would imagine those get flipped as well.

[Gorzo]

25 minutes ago, BigRich said:

 

Part one of the paragraph seems to be in direct conflict with the question at the end. What exactly is your question?


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11 minutes ago, Gorzo said:

My question is what percentage of PVW that goes out to the public actually gets opened?  

 

The first part  of my post was more to say what got me thinking about this and to clarify that I don't care what some one does with their stash, flip, hoard, drink or collect. 

 

[Clueby]

I've never owned my own bottle of any VW product. If I were to purchase any bottle at retail I would open it and drink it....slowly. EXCEPT for PVW23....I would (gasp) flip it and use the $ to buy a bunch of other stuff I would drink.

At one lottery I was at there were a couple guys openly discussing the black market value of every bottle available and using potential profit margin to decide their pick order.

[Richnimrod]

A Total WAG on my part; but, I bet most (80+% even?) gets sold twice (or more) before it gets opened and enjoyed, if it ever does.  

I'm not talking about the tier system of distillery, distributor, retailer either. 

Not judging, just guessing; since the demand is so ridiculous, and the supply so finite, and the HYPE machine is geared so high. 

I imagine some enterprising flipper can re-flip a bottle purchased on the secondary market for more than double, then flip at double that; followed by (in some cases I imagine) another final owner (or speculator) eventually drinking or displaying the bottle in the pride of owning such a sought-after commodity... or eventually flipping it again a few years down the road at an even more ludicrous price.  

Such is the fate of a "commodity" that doesn't spoil; but, rather increases in value with each passing month.

[EarthQuake]

To be perfectly honest, the secondary value on anything Pappy is so absurd that it would be a tough call for me. I was at a local raffle the other day and there was a Lot B that had I won I probably would have sold or traded so I could buy something I'm more interested in. I've never sold a bottle of whiskey before but if I got anything Pappy at retail I sure would be temped. This is partly do to the fact that I don't think ORVW10, or Lot B are really that special - I'm not the biggest fan of wheaters in general - and partly due to the fact that if it was 15/20/23 which I would certainly love to try (I tend to really enjoy 15-20 year bourbons), but the value on those is just so insane so it would be hard not to flip it.

 

Saying all that, they had a GTS as well which is what I really wanted and I would have cracked that open at Christmas had I won it.

 

It's a conflicting situation. On the one hand I think the whole flipping is nuts, mostly what people are willing to pay for these bottles which drives the whole thing. On the other hand, it's free market economics in full force, and again it would be hard to resist the urge to take advantage of it if it's something that the secondary deems much more valuable than I do.

 

Part of me thinks distilleries should raise the price on this stuff so there isn't such a huge gap between retail and secondary value, which would give more money to them which they could invest back into their products. If I had the cash to drop $1000 on a special bottle of Pappy I sure would feel better about giving my money to BT rather than a random guy I met in a Facebook group, but BT doesn't want my (theoretical) money.

 

Some companies have started to do this, Whistlepig set the retail price for their latest LE (Black Prince) at secondary prices, and guess what, people are swapping it on the secondary for about MSRP. Michter's does this with some of their stuff too, like M10, which doesn't tend to fetch much over retail on the secondary. Orphan Barrel just released a dispaly box with 6 bottles priced at essentially secondary prices. Some people think these sort of tactics are deplorable, and I wouldn't try to argue that they are incorrect, but from a basic economic sense every distiller who doesn't do this is leaving money on the table. That is of course something they are welcome to do, and perhaps for some of the larger players like BT that will be the best move in the long term when the bourbon boom pops. It will be interesting to see.

 

Back to reality, if BT changed the retail price of ORVW10 to $400, it would be on the secondary for $800 the next day, and some sucker would probably buy it. So I'm not sure there is a reasonable solution to the hysterics surrounding Pappy et al.

 

Edited December 15, 2017 by EarthQuake

[petrel800]

Some of this stuff gets drunk, while some of it sits on a shelf as Gollum walks by and says "my precious."  Some of it gets flipped.  

 

The real question is, not to be a dick, but if, as stated, you don't care what others do with their bourbon, then why do you care what percentage gets drunk and what gets flipped?  

 

My answer to that question is that, if you care that much, its not a hobby, but a business . . . and I do enough business from 9-5 (probably more like 8-6 / 8:30-10:30) 5 days a week to turn my hobby into a business.

Edited December 15, 2017 by petrel800

[FasterHorses]

I dont think he cares necessarily.. just seems like a semi interesting subject to talk aboit amongst bourbon enthusiasts in BTAC/LE/VW portion of the year. 

A guy got criticized on the specialty board for doing what he wants with  his stash... i think 

 that thread could have just caused the op to pose this question.. again just a guess.. but i think its perfectly fine to chat about

[birdie]

My guess, based on what I see here when people post their stash/bunker/collection, is a very small % ever get drunk.

 

When you see some pictures that have Pappy/BTAC 3 wide and 6 deep and that's just us on this forum, and add in the unknown number of people out there that are not on this forum with a stash/bunker/collection, I wonder how much ever gets opened.

 

Also as someone said its market driven, if you are lucky enough to get a Pappy 23 for retail and next day can sell it for 10x what you paid, that's a big temptation especially if you could use/need the $$$ for something else.

[HoustonNit]

I can't wait to everyone who wants a bottle to just have one on there shelf has one. Than maybe things will get back to normal and people want to drink these can find these at reasonable pricing.

[Gorzo]

3 hours ago, petrel800 said:

Some of this stuff gets drunk, while some of it sits on a shelf as Gollum walks by and says "my precious."  Some of it gets flipped.  

 

The real question is, not to be a dick, but if, as stated, you don't care what others do with their bourbon, then why do you care what percentage gets drunk and what gets flipped?  

 

My answer to that question is that, if you care that much, its not a hobby, but a business . . . and I do enough business from 9-5 (probably more like 8-6 / 8:30-10:30) 5 days a week to turn my hobby into a business.

If my "not to be a dick" comment came off harsh I apologize.  My point was to focus the discussion towards what  percentage actually gets consumed not what people would do if they have a bottle.  

[Gorzo]

3 hours ago, FasterHorses said:

I dont think he cares necessarily.. just seems like a semi interesting subject to talk aboit amongst bourbon enthusiasts in BTAC/LE/VW portion of the year. 

A guy got criticized on the specialty board for doing what he wants with  his stash... i think 

 that thread could have just caused the op to pose this question.. again just a guess.. but i think its perfectly fine to chat about

I was on that thread and stood up for the guy, but wasn't really why I posted the question ( could of the been the reason I said that I don't care what people do with their own bourbon) . I was just was wondering others opinion on the matter. Looks like most are in the low percentage camp. 

[Ruffin51]

I recently obtained my first bottle of Pappy ($125 for a 15).  I was going to open it until a good friend tried it at a bar and thought it drank like a $125 bottle and not a $950 bottle (my opinion exactly of Lot B [adjusting for prices of course], which I promptly traded upon acquiring for stuff I'll drink)...of course the bar with the bottle of Pappy sold out before I could get there to try it and make an informed decision. Just going to end up sitting on the bottle a while while I mull it over. I've opened far rarer dusty bottles recently after a few drinks and not regretted it, and the bottle I would consider accepting as a partial trade for the Pappy (WLW) I just acquired around retail too. Sit and wait it shall be until some decision starts to make sense above the others. 

[berto]

I think more gets opened than we think because there are people who've heard the hype but aren't necessarily enthusiasts and certainly aren't plugged in enough to know anything of the secondary market.  If they luck into a bottle at a lottery for close to MSRP they're opening it.  Not saying it's like 80% or anything but maybe 40%-60%.  I think the enthusiast set often sees the market through our own lenses and we sometimes forget we're but a small part of the whole.  Buying current release VW at secondary to flip later is dumb.  The price creeps up but with a release every year it doesn't move nearly as fast as other bottles.

[Gorzo]

Exactly the insight I was looking for.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Gorzo

[Mako254]

An MD I work with got lucky, found 4 in a store, bought the lot and he doesn’t even like bourbon. Won’t sell them, won’t drink them. Might as well be baseball cards stuck to a bottle. 

[Bob_Loblaw]

My 2 cents and "educated" guesses.  First I would start by guessing that a higher percentage of BTAC and Old Rip 10/Lot B 12 are opened then the three PVW.  

 

From the initial retail allocation I think 20% opened seems about right.  I agree that a lot of the bottles end up with people who are going to save  for a special occasion and/or struggle with the idea of opening a 1k bottle of booze.  But within the next 6 months to a year maybe 50%?  I assume those who buy on the secondary market are buying to drink so those bottles will be opened after being flipped.  

 

As for buying as a long term investment my personal opinion would be to pass.  Supply is increasing and when it does reach reasonable numbers I think the average consumer isn't going to care which year their bottle of PVW 15 is from.  I also think the floor MSRP price from BT will eventually get a bit higher and as supply increases the secondary price will drop some.  Looking at PVW 15 I can envision something like a $150-180 MSRP and secondary pricing at $400-$450 vs the $99/1k split we got going on now.  

[BigSkyDrams]

When talking about the total percentage of what is bottled that ends up opened in a relatively short time frame, my guess is that the numbers skew somewhat higher than is being projected in here due to the number of bottles that end up going to bars. My favorite nearby LS got quite a bit of PVW this year, but I would guess about half of what they got went to the only whiskey-focused bar in town. The offerings to customers were done based on reaching different levels determined by total volume and frequency of purchases. On those metrics, the whiskey bar is probably the LS’s best customer, so it’s understandable they are allocated a good chunk of the haul. One of my friends tends bar there, and he informs me that they are pouring PVW, even the 23, all the time. Now maybe some bars that land a few bottles don’t have customers who are interested on paying $30/40/50 for a shot of PVW, and the bottles end up sitting on display. But I doubt that many (if any) of the bars that get bottles do so with intent to flip or to keep as trophies, but instead want to dole it out in 1.25 oz pours for exorbitant markup. In any case, their bottles are presumably being opened.

 

But if you’re just talking consumers, yeah it’s probsbly a pretty low percentage that get opened within a reasonable time after distribution.

[Clueby]

One SBr has offered to open the bottle in the presence of the LS proprietor to prove he's not a flipper.  That seems like a good tactic but I don't think it has worked..yet.  I'd even offer to give them a pour.

[gurgalunas]

8 hours ago, Clueby said:

I've never owned my own bottle of any VW product. If I were to purchase any bottle at retail I would open it and drink it....slowly. EXCEPT for PVW23....I would (gasp) flip it and use the $ to buy a bunch of other stuff I would drink.

At one lottery I was at there were a couple guys openly discussing the black market value of every bottle available and using potential profit margin to decide their pick order.

Clueby, you hit my opinion exactly.  I got a PVW15 for $115, and fully intend to drink it.  Waiting for some buddies to come over for a goose hunt to crack it open, and then probably nurse it for an extended time.  Next year, I hope to score a 20 and do the same.

 

A store I was at on "delivery day" gave choice in order of those who showed up.  The day was known short-notice by the manager, and when he opened at 800, he announced to the 6 of us there that we would have first choice at noon (delivery was expected around 1100).  As more folks filtered in, he took names, and made a list.  Delivery included 1x PVW23,  1x PVW15,  3 PVW12 lot B, 3x ORVW10, 2x GTS, 2x WLW, 2x THH.

 

I believe that the first 6 choices were all drinkers.  First guy took PVW15.  Why take the best drinker if you can flip the 23?  Second was the 23 by a guy I know.  He will drink it.  Third I didn't know, but was WLW.  I took GTS 4th, and will open it for sure.  5th and 6th were WLW and GTS, both drinkers to guys I know.  7-9 are to flippers who travelled town and talked about what stuff was worth all day while waiting, discussed what they made on a certain bottle last year, what they scored at other places earlier, etc.  Rest of the bottles were set in back for those who were on the list but not present.

 

I also scored a $180 Stagg for a buddy that will get drank.  The 3 pappy that went to a store I bought from are all drinkers (20, 15, 15) and the 2 WLW I just got from the same place will be drinkers (yes, G, I got 2!)

 

So, of the 19 bottles of PVW and BTAC I saw, 3 were certainly flipped, 5 unknown.

 

If I ever get a PVW23, I'm pretty sure I'll sell it.  Reports of it being over-aged, along with high msrp, and sale value, will certainly convince me it's better in someone else's hands...

[Richnimrod]

1 hour ago, Clueby said:

One SBr has offered to open the bottle in the presence of the LS proprietor to prove he's not a flipper.  That seems like a good tactic but I don't think it has worked..yet.  I'd even offer to give them a pour.

I've done that.    Not to prove anything, though. 

My retailer was complaining that he 'couldn't afford to taste the damned stuff' and wanted to.    So, I obliged with a WLW he'd just sold me.    We each enjoyed about a 3/4 ounce pour right there.

That was a few years ago; but I made the offer again this year to his right hand man, who turned me down saying he didn't want to deprive me, and that he'd had the chance to taste the brand before.

[Gorzo]

1 hour ago, Clueby said:

One SBr has offered to open the bottle in the presence of the LS proprietor to prove he's not a flipper.  That seems like a good tactic but I don't think it has worked..yet.  I'd even offer to give them a pour.

I am not sure the liqour store would care if it is enjoyed or flipped . You would like to think so, but don't think that is much of a factor. A bourbon drinker and flipper's money has the same affect on the bottom line. This is assuming all things are equal as far as money spent through the year. at the store.  Could be way off base though because there is always the human element  involved (relationships) Don't rember what thread it was in, but remember someone telling a story about cars following a delivery truck around because they got the heads up from the distributor. The shop owner left it all in back and told them they didn't get any. Thinking I would probably. do the same with these types of items. It would distribute solely on a rewards program type program and nix the blind lottery, the people that follow the trucks and people who just  pop in and ask if they  just got their allocation of Pappy or BTAC.....That being said I am guilty of doing everything except following a truck and if I had that info probably would join that club as well.  I wouldn't feel good about it though. HA