Value proposition of barrel proof bourbons?

[wadewood]

My blog post discusses this - https://tater-talk.com/2018/10/29/value-proposition-of-higher-proof-us-whiskies  or here is the text

 

Whiskey geeks love higher proof whiskies.  We tend to like sipping whiskey neat at higher proof and the flexibility to add our own water to our desired proof.  In the heat of Houston summers, I often drink bourbon with a few ice cubes. Higher proof bourbon can hold up to ice without becoming too diluted.  In recent years the US distilleries and NDP’s have responded with expanded offerings at higher proof.

These higher proof offerings often come at significantly higher prices. The reality is you are paying a premium for something that simply has less water added to it.  It’s generally the same whiskey just bottled at a different proof. Knowing that, it becomes a math calculation to determine the premium you are paying for a more concentrated version.  It’s true that these versions often come in more fancy packaging. Some are not necessarily bottled at barrel proof, but perhaps at a marketing term of ‘Full Proof’ or just at a higher proof.  This is often done so they can have 1 label that covers all the possible proofs that will come out of any barrel or batch of barrels. Considering that I get my own water for virtually free, I decided to break some bottles down for price comparison.  This shows how much premium these higher proof bourbons carry. The chart below is based on pricing in my local market Houston for 750ml bottles; pricing varies some by region.

link to above – Barrel Proof spreadsheet

I’m sure I’ll get some feedback of my pairings. I’m not saying these are exact but I am saying they are close.  Is Stagg Jr really a barrel proof version of Buffalo Trace? They are the same mashbill and around the same age with just a difference in proof.  WP Boss Hog V is a 13 year MGPi Rye finished in secondary casks. WP Old World is 1 year off at 12 years and is MGPi Rye finished in secondary casks at a lower proof.  Blanton’s SFTB is EU’s current pricing converted to USD, but you still have to get it to the States.

As you can see the range is from an extremely reasonable zero % increase to a whopping 399% increase.  Overall we are paying significantly more for higher proof US whiskies. Are they worth this extra cost?  That always comes down to an individual’s personal preference. For me, I’m going to start drinking more OGD 114 and I need to go purchase some WT Rare Breed.

Next in this series I’ll look at how much premium producers are charging for finishing whiskey for a short period in secondary casks.

Proof Calculations computed using this calculator – https://homedistiller.org/distill/dilute/calc

[Mako254]

Rare Breed is a great value. Now, if we can get Campari to release it NCF and add some more 12 year to it. 

[kevinbrink]

This is an interesting bit of number crunching Wade

[lcpfratn]

While I agree that most of the higher proof offerings are priced at a substantial premium, I also believe some of what we are paying for is a premium product over and above the non-dilution factor. You mentioned the premium packaging, but I think better barrel selection and more age (you mentioned some of the age difference) is also involved in most of the premium products. Does that justify some of the huge differences in price over the standard that you point out...hell no, but I don’t blame them for getting the prices while they can. Eventually the boom will be over as the result of overpriced products and/or excess supply...one or both of which will be here before we know it.

 

[Paddy]

As always, great work, and thank you Wade.  I do love the high proof options we now have, and most were not readily available just as recently as 5-6 years ago.  While I'm thankful for the options, it just goes to show that the oldest and most often overlooked product of them all (OGD 114), still remains the standard that the others have/are emulating. 

 

As for myself, I've spent the year stocking up on WTRB and KCSB... both of which are in the higher QPR category here. 

 

Now, I just need to stock up a bit more on the 114... cheers! 

[wadewood]

1 hour ago, Paddy said:

Now, I just need to stock up a bit more on the 114... cheers! 

I bought a full case of OGD 114 4 or 5 years ago when the initially scare was that it was going away.  I put that case in back of closet and glad it remains as my rainy day fund bourbon.

[Mako254]

20 minutes ago, wadewood said:

I bought a full case of OGD 114 4 or 5 years ago when the initially scare was that it was going away.  I put that case in back of closet and glad it remains as my rainy day fund bourbon.

 

Be interesting to put some of the best value barrel proofers (RB, OGD 114) vs the not so great (eht, 1920) in a blind. 

[FasterHorses]

Awesome chart. Love the visual depiction of some of the buffoonery. Thanks for the time spent putting that together. For me its always great to taste the barrel proofs but im glad my sweet spot is the 90-107 offerings. 

[WhiskeyBlender]

34 minutes ago, FasterHorses said:

Awesome chart. Love the visual depiction of some of the buffoonery. Thanks for the time spent putting that together. For me its always great to taste the barrel proofs but im glad my sweet spot is the 90-107 offerings. 

That makes so much sense that you would like barrel proof offerings around 90-107 or so, @FasterHorses. One thing you can't forget with barrel proof offerings is that if the proof is on the lower side, you are getting a lot more water soluble notes in the bourbon; i.e., more of the caramelized wood sugars, as opposed to the terpeneols (pine & resine) and aromatic aldehydes. In this regard, WTRB barrel proof is the perfect example of that (although the bottling I have from '17 is at a hefty 112.8, at least for WT), which I'm currently enjoying at the moment.  

 

Cheers,

Nancy 

Edited October 31, 2018 by WhiskeyBlender

[jshleffar]

So youre saying we should all go by Jefferson's Ocean cs. Got it! 

 

In reality the next question for me comes with do we believe we're getting the better barrels? If so maybe it needs to be compared to single barrel price offerings when possible. If you (not you, but the you that is making my whiskey) are telling me Im getting better barrels, and dont have to drink it at sub 94 proof then yes, continue to take my money (but not you Jefferson's).

[Mako254]

45 minutes ago, WhiskeyBlender said:

That makes so much sense that you would like barrel proof offerings around 90-107 or so, @FasterHorses. One thing you can't forget with barrel proof offerings is that if the proof is on the lower side, you are getting a lot more water soluble notes in the bourbon; i.e., more of the caramelized wood sugars, as opposed to the terpeneols (pine & resine) and aromatic aldehydes. In this regard, WTRB barrel proof is the perfect example of that (although the bottling I have from '17 is at a hefty 112.8, at least for WT), which I'm currently enjoying at the moment.  

 

Cheers,

Nancy 

 

So that is why I love the lower (100-112 or so) cask strength MGP offerings from SA and Belle Meade. Or Roses for that matter.  No secret around here that I love Russell’s picks. 

I prefer barrel proof, but on the lower side say 100-115 or so. 

[Harry in WashDC]

4 hours ago, wadewood said:

I bought a full case of OGD 114 4 or 5 years ago when the initially scare was that it was going away.  I put that case in back of closet and glad it remains as my rainy day fund bourbon.

YEP.  Me, too, although I lacked your self-control when it came to how many.  All purchased locally at under $23 (incl. tax) per 750.   Do not regret a dollar even though it'll be years . . .

 

OGD 80 here is now around $18 while BIB is $24 and 114 is as much as $30.  Hence, I'm still in the money.

[GaryT]

Great stuff Wade, thanks for putting this together!  I think this highlights how prices charged only consider the "materials cost" as one component (the much larger consideration being "So how much CAN I charge?")  I stopped buying Booker's when their price shot up (and even when it stepped back from the ledge a bit - still too high in my opinion), but they don't seem to have trouble moving it.  I wish I would have stocked up more on OGD114, because now it is $30 around here and not the value it once was.  Thinking maybe I'll avoid that mistake with WTRB

[wadewood]

The case of OGD 114 I purchased was under $20 a bottle :.)

Do producers pull better barrels for their barrel proof offerings?  It's a good question and I'm sure the marketing folks would spin it and say every time.  I thought about doing a group blind tasting with all bourbons at same proof, like 80.  If the barrel proofers were true better whiskey then they should hold up to water and grade higher.  

[El Vino]

Great thread, sound analysis.  Thanks!

[BDanner]

20 hours ago, wadewood said:

I bought a full case of OGD 114 4 or 5 years ago when the initially scare was that it was going away.  I put that case in back of closet and glad it remains as my rainy day fund bourbon.

I'm down to a couple bottle of the OGD114 that I stocked up on during the scare from a couple years ago. Am I remembering correctly that OGD114/(and subsequently what gets used for Basil Hayden) goes in the barrel at a lower proof than the other two expressions of OGD? If so, you are getting a little different product for your premium.

[Spade]

Pretty interesting. I've done this in my head when in liquor stores, but it's nice to see it all in one place. When MMCS was first released, the immediate comparison I made was to OGD114 — why such a premium in one case but not the other for the a similar increase in proof?

 

Anyway, it's been years since I've purchased a bottle of Rare Breed and it's time I rectify that.

[flahute]

Rare Breed is a constant in my house and has been for years. It's one of the relative values here in Washington State so I already have 15 or so stashed away just in case someone decides to charge more for it.

OGD 114 - yep. Another favorite.

[DeepCover]

It seems like the fair comparison on JD is to use the lower proof single barrel offering, since the JD BP offering is a single barrel. The lower proof single barrel is a different price point than the standard black label (also a different proof IIRC).

[kevinbrink]

11 hours ago, DeepCover said:

It seems like the fair comparison on JD is to use the lower proof single barrel offering, since the JD BP offering is a single barrel. The lower proof single barrel is a different price point than the standard black label (also a different proof IIRC).

Different options could have been made for all of the brands to change the outcome, the real outlier to me is using RR10 for the comparison to WT101 instead of WT81 or WT101, the use of JD seems comparable to the choices for Old Forester and OGD. I kind of understand the idea of keeping 4R in the Single Barrels but that could have easily been Yellow Label. 

 

 

[smokinjoe]

A quick scan tells me that if we throw out the outliers on the low and high ends, most premiums are running between 50 and 70%.  I guess, that would be the “market” benchmark?  Then, if I look at what those prices are, I need to make a determination of their “worth” to me.  Not taking into account on whether or not I like (and would therefore purchase) any particular brand remaining, I would say I’m comfortable with that premium range.  In general, though, my purchase decisions on these are not based on what the premium is over the standard, but based more on what the overall dollar amount is.  I have varying degrees of BPF (buyer-pucker-factor  ) at certain dollar amounts....regardless of what the whiskey ABV is.  

 

[Old Hippie]

As stated above there are several factors that enter into the equation. A big one is batch size. If you are blending 200 or 300 barrels to make a batch of everyday bourbon then there is much more latitude in the quality of barrels in the batch. If your batch size is 30 to 50 barrels, as is probably the case with most elevated proof whiskies then the better barrels are at a premium. 

Barrel entry proof also factors in.

Last but not least is Supply and Demand. Bourbon is worth what the public will pay for it and generate the desired quantity for the distiller (See PVW). As long as demand is there then expect to pay a premium price. 

[cfochs]

At $21 a bottle, OGD114 is the best value out there.  Although, I was surprised to see it selling for $30 in Chicago over the weekend.

[Flyfish]

I never buy barrel proof with the expectation that I will water it down to 90. Like Wade, I may add a cube in the summer but I typically buy it for the more intense, concentrated flavor. Sipping very, very slowly provides concentrated pleasure for a long stretch of time. Perhaps not an exact comparison but I buy regular KC by the handle for drinking, quite often over ice, and KC 120 for savoring neat. 

[Richnimrod]

6 minutes ago, Flyfish said:

I never buy barrel proof with the expectation that I will water it down to 90. Like Wade, I may add a cube in the summer but I typically buy it for the more intense, concentrated flavor. Sipping very, very slowly provides concentrated pleasure for a long stretch of time. Perhaps not an exact comparison but I buy regular KC by the handle for drinking, quite often over ice, and KC 120 for savoring neat. 

Each to his/her own, for sure, Flyfish!      I rarely dilute my barrel-proofers right away; but, often do add a few drops and even a few more drops sometimes as I determine how the dram is sipping for me at that moment.   I also, occasionally drop in a cube and will enjoy the evolution of those barrel-proofers as that ice slowly changes the mouthfeel and flavor profile, and certainly the nose of 'em.

In EVERY case I'd offer this advice: Always enjoy YOUR Whiskey the way it provides YOU with the most satisfaction. 

Trying to "do it the right way", as explained by the 'experts' is silly, to me.   Be your own arbiter of 'correctness', I say!