Jump to content
JoeTerp

2019 Bourbon Goals

Recommended Posts

troyce

Continue to dumb down my palate and develop a much better appreciation for cheap bourbon.

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan

My goal is to sample all of JoeTerp's good stuff. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JoeTerp
11 hours ago, DCFan said:

My goal is to sample all of JoeTerp's good stuff. :)

As long as it’s open it’s up for sampling. 

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
On 1/17/2019 at 10:34 AM, bourbon-n00b said:

 So, I look at it as pre-buying my future self some excellent options to enjoy down the line.  Here's hoping the wife feels the same ?

Down the line you would benefit from the distillery expansions going on at an unprecedented rate right now.

 

Stocking up when supplies are strained is not the best way to do it, in my not-so-humble opinion. You build inventory when the getting is good. In 2019 bourbon availability is the worst it's been in decades, and certainly the most expensive.

 

Do what you want, but I recommend you buy your bourbon closer to your consumption rate for now, and then later buy your inventory when the supply returns and distilleries must again compete for your business. Sounds like it's going to time well with your family planning as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
On 1/17/2019 at 4:30 PM, KyleCBreese said:

It’s like a bourbon 401(k)...

...fully invested in Enron in 2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan
44 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Down the line you would benefit from the distillery expansions going on at an unprecedented rate right now.

 

Stocking up when supplies are strained is not the best way to do it, in my not-so-humble opinion. You build inventory when the getting is good. In 2019 bourbon availability is the worst it's been in decades, and certainly the most expensive.

 

Do what you want, but I recommend you buy your bourbon closer to your consumption rate for now, and then later buy your inventory when the supply returns and distilleries must again compete for your business. Sounds like it's going to time well with your family planning as well.

Bourbon prices will never be cheaper than they are now. Just like the price of poker, the prices for bourbon will continue to rise. Yes there is expansion going on behind the scenes but guess who's going to pay for that? Will there be so much expansion that there is a bourbon glut which will force the biggies to lower prices? Never say never but I will. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
5 minutes ago, DCFan said:

Bourbon prices will never be cheaper than they are now. Just like the price of poker, the prices for bourbon will continue to rise. Yes there is expansion going on behind the scenes but guess who's going to pay for that? Will there be so much expansion that there is a bourbon glut which will force the biggies to lower prices? Never say never but I will. :)

 

Price is a function of supply and demand. To suggest there will never again be oversupply despite near doubling of capacity (not to mention increases in malt, rum, pretty much every spirit right now) is to ignore history.

 

We had a glut before, right after everyone thought demand could never go down. 

 

"This time it's different"

 

Yeah, no it isn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan
1 minute ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Price is a function of supply and demand. To suggest there will never again be oversupply despite near doubling of capacity (not to mention increases in malt, rum, pretty much every spirit right now) is to ignore history.

 

We had a glut before, right after everyone thought demand could never go down. 

 

"This time it's different"

 

Yeah, no it isn't.

We have a front row seat to what's happening right now. BIB's are disappearing as are age statements. The distilleries can't make this stuff fast enough while the prices are going up and quality is going down and this supposed glut that is just around the corner will not slow this trend down.  IMHO. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
1 minute ago, DCFan said:

We have a front row seat to what's happening right now. BIB's are disappearing as are age statements. The distilleries can't make this stuff fast enough while the prices are going up and quality is going down and this supposed glut that is just around the corner will not slow this trend down.  IMHO. :)

Let's have this conversation again in 2025.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan
2 minutes ago, The Black Tot said:

Let's have this conversation again in 2025.

Indeed but until then I'm going to enjoy what's out there knowing that bourbon like everything else will be more expensive then than it is now. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
1 minute ago, DCFan said:

Indeed but until then I'm going to enjoy what's out there knowing that bourbon like everything else will be more expensive then than it is now. ;)

The very last thing I would recommend is that you don't enjoy yourself ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan
1 minute ago, The Black Tot said:

The very last thing I would recommend is that you don't enjoy yourself ;)

I'll drink to that. :)

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
smokinjoe
1 hour ago, The Black Tot said:

 

Price is a function of supply and demand. 

I’ll remember you said that... ;)

 

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
1 hour ago, smokinjoe said:

I’ll remember you said that... ;)

I expect nothing less from my sb.com conscience!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
smokinjoe
2 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

I expect nothing less from my sb.com conscience!

I’m here to help.  :D

 

 

C715E1EC-8AB2-4222-9405-029DE27988C2.jpeg

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
bourbon-n00b
9 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

Down the line you would benefit from the distillery expansions going on at an unprecedented rate right now.

 

Stocking up when supplies are strained is not the best way to do it, in my not-so-humble opinion. You build inventory when the getting is good. In 2019 bourbon availability is the worst it's been in decades, and certainly the most expensive.

 

Do what you want, but I recommend you buy your bourbon closer to your consumption rate for now, and then later buy your inventory when the supply returns and distilleries must again compete for your business. Sounds like it's going to time well with your family planning as well.

I do understand where you are coming from and perhaps years from now we will be walking into shops and seeing things that put today's options to shame.   

 

That's a risk and I believe I'm mitigating it some by keeping myself in the sub-$100 range and sticking, for the most part, to expressions that I know and like.  

 

Maybe I will end up feeling "stuck" with things that cost more and I like less than what I can buy in the future.  But who knows what's going happen and if I can establish my floor at RRSiB-level, that's a pretty good place for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Golferpimp1
 
Price is a function of supply and demand. To suggest there will never again be oversupply despite near doubling of capacity (not to mention increases in malt, rum, pretty much every spirit right now) is to ignore history.
 
We had a glut before, right after everyone thought demand could never go down. 
 
"This time it's different"
 
Yeah, no it isn't.


I suppose even then it depends on inflation going forward. And whatever discount rate you want to use in your model to estimate prices and timing in the future. I would think even if supply increased and we had a surplus prices would likely not decline (maybe except for super premium stuff) but stay relatively flat due to inflation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
6 hours ago, Golferpimp1 said:

I suppose even then it depends on inflation going forward. And whatever discount rate you want to use in your model to estimate prices and timing in the future. I would think even if supply increased and we had a surplus prices would likely not decline (maybe except for super premium stuff) but stay relatively flat due to inflation.

 

Yes, comparisons should be made in real dollars (adjusted for inflation). Although I don't think we're going to have to get too techy about it. We don't need a calculator to know that bourbon is more expensive and heavily allocated today, for example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charlutz

Even if we have a glut in 5 years or less, I won’t regret stashing away some of my favorites at retail prices. Call it a hedge.  

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
dwolf

My goal is to really build my nose and palate. Go beyond knowing what is good and bad and being able to identify the more nuanced elements. I also want to be able to help others develop their tasting skills. The bourbon society I started is maturing and I want to be able to help facilitate everyone's growth.

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Richnimrod
3 hours ago, dwolf said:

My goal is to really build my nose and palate. Go beyond knowing what is good and bad and being able to identify the more nuanced elements. I also want to be able to help others develop their tasting skills. The bourbon society I started is maturing and I want to be able to help facilitate everyone's growth.

These are logical, as well as reasonable, goals.    I wish you luck and will go on to say, I assume your attitude means you won't really need luck.   Have FUN!!!

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PaulO
On 1/20/2019 at 11:09 AM, Charlutz said:

Even if we have a glut in 5 years or less, I won’t regret stashing away some of my favorites at retail prices. Call it a hedge.  

I say this saves you time, and money spent on gasoline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
11 hours ago, PaulO said:

I say this saves you time, and money spent on gasoline.

 

I'd say it's just the opposite in a bubble, when only every 10th store has something you want to buy for a price you want to pay. And even then, only on a solar eclipse when the moon is in Jupiter.

 

In a glut, you trip over the good stuff, saving time, money, and gasoline.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot

My bad, I read that wrong. You meant having a stash of previously bought faves saves time, money and gasoline.

 

I was thinking more of how much work it takes these day to build that stash, if you haven't already

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...