Buffalo Trace Shortage

[mbroo5880i]

Saw this today on The Bourbon Guys facebook page. Recent take on old news.

I thought there was a thread about the BT shortage but couldn't find it. Moderators, please merge with another thread if appropriate.

http://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2013/10/buffalo-trace-is-about-100000-barrels-short-of-where-it-needs-to-be/

[GaryT]

What I think is interesting is that I've seen many stores now with single barrel Buffalo Trace offerings for better pricing than I saw Buffalo Trace sold for in the past. I used to pay $22-24 for BT when I started on the bourbon path years ago, and I see the private barrel picks going for $19.99. I would think that facing a shortage, unless they think of cutting proof (see how well that worked for Makers!), they're going to have to kill some labels, or raise prices. And it used to be that "single barrel pick" meant you likely would get something a smidge better than the retail vatting (not always). Seems like they would price that a bit above - or just raise the price on BT in general.

Note - I'm not REQUESTING anyone raise prices Just seems counter-intuitive when you are facing (and advertising) a shortage to cut prices. Unless you're going to deal with them in some other fashion.

[jeffrey r]

I haven't seen any decrease in price around me, including on barrel select single barrel BT. Always around $22-$25. I would take your findings as more of an isolated incident. The last thing I am finding with bourbon, low end or high end, is price decreases.

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[P&MLiquorsEric]

Currently in KY, the BT distributor is out of: buffalo trace, blantons, AAA, Elmer T Lee, Sazarac rye, weller 12, and rock Hill farms.

We did receive a single case of Blantons last week along with 2 bottles of rock hill this week. Luckily we stocked up on AAA and Elmer months ago and we have a private barrel BT coming soon.

They also told me to expect eagle rare to run out soon too.

[mbroo5880i]

I have noticed less stock piles of Buffalo Trace is retail stores recently. Just a few years ago, the stuff was every where and often at prices ranging from $17.99 to $19.99. The range is now $19.99 to $21.99. I have seen a similar bump in price for Eagle Rare. I haven't seen ETL in months. WL 12 is becoming more difficult to find (OWA and WSR not so much). Rarely see Sazarac but it can be found.

I have seen the same situation as Gary with respect to private barrel offerings. It seems that they are often priced the same or slightly less than the regular BT. I have always thought that they were similar to grocery store "loss leaders" (i.e., something to get you in the door and onto the bourbon aisle with the hope that you will buy other things or step up to more expensive offerings.)

[squire]

I see private store bottlings in much the same light, an inducement to customers. For my tastes though I rely on the Master Blenders at the major houses, those folks know their stuff.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

Sazarac whiskey products have seen a price increase across the board.

The reason you see BT private barrels slightly cheaper is because you get a slight price break for buying 25+ cases of BT. A barrel is 26-30 cases.

[petrel800]

I will say that here in GA I have seen more stores jump on the private selection band wagon in the last year than I have ever seen. It almost like we went from no selections to everyone having one overnight.

Typically it's BT. What scares me though is the amount of stores jumping on the 4 Roses train. When I see a story about Rutledge discussing a shortage, that will be panic time in my opinion.

"Hide your kids, hide your wife" panic time . . .

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Edited November 8, 2013 by petrel800

[Wryguy]

This last shipment of Baby Saz to land in MA was priced at 26.99 at my local haunt, a drop from 29.99, and the owner noted that the wholesale price had gone down slightly, which we both expressed surprise at.

[Brisko]

I've seen BT climbing toward $24 (or higher!) at a lot of places around the Twin Cities over the last year, when it used to be below $20 pretty much everywhere. On the other hand, I can get a store picked SB for $19.99, and it's significantly better whiskey than the standard bottling.

[Guy Debord]

I wonder if KY, IN, or TN are seeing local shortages because newcomers and outsiders to bourbon think those states (being closer to the distilleries/the source) will some how translate into better selections and prices? Perhaps that is true in some cases, but there is no need to go tear through a KY, IN, or TN stores when you may be able to find it in your own backyard for just a few bucks more (taxes).

I've met Chicagoans who believe that you have to physically get in your car and drive to KY in order to get all the good bourbon selections at much better prices. There are people who go down to bourbon country and buy 8 ETL's at a local KY store because they think it doesn't exist here. Binny's has like 12 bottles in each location right this moment.

Just something I thought of--could be totally wrong. I also think that screaming shortage on a bourbon forum brings out the panic in hoarders, which does not help.

[393foureyedfox]

I wonder if KY, IN, or TN are seeing local shortages because newcomers and outsiders to bourbon think those states (being closer to the distilleries/the source) will some how translate into better selections and prices? Perhaps that is true in some cases, but there is no need to go tear through a KY, IN, or TN stores when you may be able to find it in your own backyard for just a few bucks more (taxes).

I've met Chicagoans who believe that you have to physically get in your car and drive to KY in order to get all the good bourbon selections at much better prices. There are people who go down to bourbon country and buy 8 ETL's at a local KY store because they think it doesn't exist here. Binny's has like 12 bottles in each location right this moment.

Just something I thought of--could be totally wrong. I also think that screaming shortage on a bourbon forum brings out the panic in hoarders, which does not help.

when i was in chicago in July, i waked into a downtown Binnys just to see what was on the shelves. there was a lot there that ive not seen in KY, and there was a lot i see in KY that was not there. prices varied wildly....some things were a buck or two cheaper than here in KY, and some things were significantly more. who knows why

[TheOakMonster]

This last shipment of Baby Saz to land in MA was priced at 26.99 at my local haunt, a drop from 29.99, and the owner noted that the wholesale price had gone down slightly, which we both expressed surprise at.

In NY, the price on Sazerac has stayed the same and the distributor actually lifted the limit on ordering. So our store bought 24 cases (6-packs) and they actually shipped it. We're flush with the stuff.

Normally we're allocated 5 or so 6-packs a year.

[squire]

prices varied wildly....some things were a buck or two cheaper than here in KY, and some things were significantly more. who knows why

The computer knows. The bar code at checkout tells them what products are moving (price can be increased) and what products aren't (mark 'em down).

[Josh]

This is what we are going to see from distillers from now until production catches up with demand. They are going to be lowering proof, raising prices, dropping age statements or having shortages. Or some combination of those.

[camduncan]

No shortage of it here in Australia.... oh wait, they lower the proof to 80 here..... might explain why it spreads so far

[PaulO]

I see plenty of BT around here. Some of their other brands are more scarce. They seem to come and go, not always on the shelf.

[jeffrey r]

I guess it's a good thing many of our basements look like liquor store stock rooms to weather any shortages that may arise... I now recall that a good liquor store with a terrific whiskey selection by me recently announced difficulty getting ETL, BT, Blanton's and perhaps some others from their distributor. There's still plenty of bourbon sitting around in stores, but between MM and now BT, this shortage seems to be getting a bit more real.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

I will say that here in GA I have seen more stores jump on the private selection band wagon in the last year than I have ever seen. It almost like we went from no selections to everyone having one overnight.

Typically it's BT. What scares me though is the amount of stores jumping on the 4 Roses train. When I see a story about Rutledge discussing a shortage, that will be panic time in my opinion.

"Hide your kids, hide your wife" panic time . . .

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I haven't heard that from Jim but Dan Gardner from 4R alluded to that notion if 2014 is similar to 2013.

[squire]

As long as they don't screw with Barton I will remain reasonably quiet.

[steeltownbbq]

Does anyone know if they are running the Barton still more?

I was under the impression that Barton only distilled a few months each year

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[P&MLiquorsEric]

As long as they don't screw with Barton I will remain reasonably quiet.

It looks like all they are doing is expanding the Barton footprint. And Barton is still selling aged stock so I doubt they have a supply issue in bardstown.

[squire]

When it comes to Barton one can't be too careful . . . I better stock up during the holiday sales.

[mbroo5880i]

It looks like all they are doing is expanding the Barton footprint. And Barton is still selling aged stock so I doubt they have a supply issue in bardstown.

Yeah, VOB BIB showed up in Indiana earlier this year. Interestingly, the one retailer that carried it sold it for $14.99 originally and now it is $11.99 I think. So, using squire's technology theorem, the cash register tells them how to price it.

[oke&coke]

Yeah, VOB BIB showed up in Indiana earlier this year. Interestingly, the one retailer that carried it sold it for $14.99 originally and now it is $11.99 I think. So, using squire's technology theorem, the cash register tells them how to price it.

The real trick now is to buy enough to keep it in stock but not so much they raise the price again.