Look into your crystal high-ball to 2020!

[rndenks]

We all have spent a lot of time grumbling about the recent "bubble", and there is little doubt that it will continue to grow before it bursts. Posts alerting of shortages in product, dropping of age statements...heck dropping products all together seem to be more frequent too.

I thought it might be interesting to look into the crystal high-ball and make guess on where our beloved bourbon industry will be in the year 2020.

Personally, I think we will see continued elimination of value pours either to NAS, or all together, to make more juice available for "limited" or "special" releases. Whether it deserves it or not "limited" and "special" gets attention and probably will get more money. In reality it will likely be the same product we used to pay $20 for under another name.

Also, with the popularity of a few of the flavored whiskey (i.e. red stag, honey, fireball, etc.) I would not be surprised to see the "flavored" portfolios explode the same way it did with vodka. Can't wait to get me some Whipped Whiskey!

So what do you think?

[squire]

Well it's always been about give the customer what they want so I expect to see more flavored stuff and emphasis on cocktails. That and more stretching in the middle as brands migrate lower while aged stock moves higher.

[393foureyedfox]

I expect worldwide demand grows faster than capacity does, and prices rising as a result....possibly even accentuated by Beams recent acquisition by the Asian market. The Japanese are regarded as connoiseurs of the upper shelf stuff, so I expect more of the best stuff will head there in higher proportions, possibly hurting the upper shelf prices more than the lower shelf stuff. But, I expect, as a result, even more stuff to go NAS to keep the lower shelf stocked.

If any of the above happens, its all the same result: less supply, higher prices, more allocations, scarcer releases

I'm not usually a pessimist.........

[petrel800]

Prices eventually have to rise to equalize supply and demand. Hopefully some of the new comers become players, High West and Smooth Ambler, further increasing supply with additional offerings and supply. Supply will increase as stock catches up with demand due to the higher prices. Some of the fanboy stuff subsides when prices normalize. I won't paint a picture of glut and bourbon bliss, but the frenzy will eventually stop.

[zillah]

No an expert but my thoughts...

Bourbon will face market saturation. With all the new craft distillers that will have real straight bourbon product, I think there is going to be a shift in bourbon drinker's willingness to pay for higher end spirits and the major distiller's will respond in kind. Pappy Van Winkle is an extreme example of everyone chasing the top shelf. New bourbon drinkers will expect to pay entry level scotch prices for their bourbon into the future. Profits will be greater than ever!

High end will become the new premium and standard premium products like Old Grand Dad will be the bottom of the shelf, if not stripped of its quality and phased out completely. While Beam is making quite a push for the older brands to establish a foothold in the younger generation, none of this really matters as the off forgotten brands never make up that much of total bourbon production anyway. The writing on the wall is that all of the old brands that are prized right now (Weller, OGD, OF, OHH) will either be put on the cutting block or upgraded to higher end prices. The price bourbon drinkers will pay for the legitimacy of quality product. It was good while it lasted but the cats out the bag: quality bourbon has been severely under-priced for decades.

[smknjoe]

I don't know if it's been under priced or not. Some of the ultra premium stuff, maybe. Not the mid-shelfers though. How much does it cost to make a bottle of OWA? $3-$5?...and it sells at wholesale for $15 to the distributor? I do think that the prices are going to continue to climb and be much closer to the entry level scotch prices which is what $50-$60? If Weller 12 continues to exist by 2020 I wouldn't be surprised at a price of $45-$50 for a 5th.

[White Dog]

WellerSR and OWA will once again have age statements. They'll both be 2yrs in the wood.

[White Dog]

All WT products will be bottled at 61 proof, as that's better for cocktails.

[White Dog]

Barton's disitilling equipment will have been removed, to make more space for BT barrels.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

Anything age stated at 10 years old will be minimum of $45 per 750.

12 year age stated, $65 minimum.

Older than that, $100 plus.

Quite a few 17 plus year old super premiums will be on market for $225 plus.

Van winkle products will go exclusively to on premise only (like with some of the most sought after wines).

[tylermke]

WellerSR and OWA will once again have age statements. They'll both be 2yrs in the wood.

Haha. This is sad, but also funny because it'll probably be true.

[Clavius]

Van winkle products will go exclusively to on premise only (like with some of the most sought after wines).

I look forward to this day.

[callmeox]

The bourbon bubble will have burst and people will have moved on from bourbon to some other spirits, bringing on bourbon glut #2.

And we will be waiting for it this time. Muahahahahaha!

[393foureyedfox]

I tend to think the bourbon bubble will be generational, as in, one day, our kids will hit 30 or so and decide they dont wanna drink the same thing their dad did, and will make something else trendy. So.....I think the next bubble is a decade or three away

[smknjoe]

I hope you are right Scott, but I'm a little skeptical of that scenario. Beer has kept on booming since the 90's with out any signs of slowing down. Scotch has done the same I assume. Now that bourbon has been bumped up in status I don't know that it will easily be knocked down. Sure, it may not be as trendy in the future just like scotch isn't as trendy now, but I bet the prices wont drop.

[dcbt]

I hope you are right Scott, but I'm a little skeptical of that scenario. Beer has kept on booming since the 90's with out any signs of slowing down.

[GaryT]

I think we'll see the elimination of some labels, especially from the likes of HH which has more labels than anyone can reliably count. More age statements dropping (can you picture "Weller 12 Brand"?) while the prices increase to off-set the support shortages. Believe we'll see more rye options, including some older/aged ryes (that won't be cheap!). Also think we'll see more innovation from the larger distilleries trying to squash the craft shops.

[smknjoe]

Yes, I mean "craft" beer. I haven't regularly consumed anything but since the early-mid 90's when I had my first Sam Adams. Most of my friends are the same way.

[squire]

If we see those liquor prices home brewers may turn into home distillers.

[tylermke]

If we see those liquor prices home brewers may turn into home distillers.

Might need to buy a cabin in Kentucky if that happens. Those WI winters would not be kind to the barrels.

[higgins]

If we see those liquor prices home brewers may turn into home distillers.

Now that's something I could look forward to!

[squire]

Might need to buy a cabin in Kentucky if that happens. Those WI winters would not be kind to the barrels.

You guys in WI wouldn't even have to distill, just put the barrels of mash outside, freeze the water, pour off the hooch.

[sutton]

I think the high end stuff goes higher, but lower and mid-shelf will look more or less the same. Most everything in the ricks is not PVW/BTAC/PHC quality, and while the current surge in demand will carry the lower/mid-shelf products somewhat higher, eventually those prices will stabilize and perhaps decline a bit from those highs. Demand will be higher than today but supply will catch up which will also moderate the increases in the lower/mid shelf products.

Average quality level will also be increased with much less variance in quality levels, as craft distilling and expanded capacity in the majors and the investment that comes with that will further drive understanding on the factors of production that need to be controlled to produce good/very good whiskey consistently.

The fad/fanboy market component will be much less - there will be something else to chase. So overall I'm optimistic.

[theglobalguy]

I think we'll see the elimination of some labels, especially from the likes of HH which has more labels than anyone can reliably count.

I'd be totally fine with this. I've stood in liquor stores helping friends and family only to explain 7 products in a row they picked up are all HH despite mystery distillery names on the label.

Beyond that I'm hopeful the fad driven folks move on to tequila or something of the like as soon as all the cool magazines and blogs tell them to. While I'm fine with a glut (wasn't around for the last one), I'm fearful it'd be the crap products nobody wants in excess!

[bingstein]

I predict a glut era beginning around that time. There is no reason to think the crazy amount produced won't increase significantly between now and then. While admittedly international fads may not be as fleeting, American tastes do. On the other hand, it seems there are more diehards nowadays that may not waver, but if the casual drinkers move away from bourbon slightly I think there will be a surplus of barrels aging. It may not result in decreased prices, but it should result in increased quality.