Look into your crystal high-ball to 2020!

[ramblinman]

I'd be totally fine with this. I've stood in liquor stores helping friends and family only to explain 7 products in a row they picked up are all HH despite mystery distillery names on the label.

Can anyone with a lot of marketting/business understanding clue me in on why HH does this? I can see diversifying being good to a point, but eventually you've got to be diluting past the point of usefulness.

[squire]

Because old, established brands have enough of a following to be profitable without the need for expensive advertizing.

[theglobalguy]

Because old, established brands have enough of a following to be profitable without the need for expensive advertizing.

Still don't think that negates the supply chain inefficiencies (different bottles, boxes, labels, inventory levels). But hey, I'm not a billion $ spirits company either. They probably spend more on their travel budgets than some of these odd offshoot brands make in profit.

[smokinjoe]

HH created a number of labels for specific customers. If "Ramblinman" was a distributor in Georgia, for instance, and purchased a lot of HH whiskey...HH might create a "Ramblinman" label just for you. Or, a "Capital City of the South" label. Some of these just lasted, and I suppose that HH is, and will continue to phase them out. They have also absorbed a number of labels through purchase during distillery consolidation, that they just keep going. One of the cool places to tour at HH is the label room. It's like walking through the Library of Congress of booze labels.

[theglobalguy]

HH created a number of labels for specific customers. If "Ramblinman" was a distributor in Georgia, for instance, and purchased a lot of HH whiskey...HH might create a "Ramblinman" label just for you. Or, a "Capital City of the South" label. Some of these just lasted, and I suppose that HH is, and will continue to phase them out. They have also absorbed a number of labels through purchase during distillery consolidation, that they just keep going. One of the cool places to tour at HH is the label room. It's like walking through the Library of Congress of booze labels.

Sort of equivalent to the "store pick" single barrel world were fortunate enough to experience now. Would have been a good way to lock a distributor into higher spend.

[DrBob]

New to bourbon in the last couple of years, so not sure I have my finger on the pulse of the industry, but a lot of craft distilleries will have 6 to 8 yr aged whiskeys so I hope to see less sourced stuff masquerading as craft. I know for sure I will be glad for my bunker.... either to compare to great new stuff or expressions on the market, or because the good stuff is priced out of my range. Perhaps both will happen.

[portwood]

I predict that the vast majority of predictions will be proven wrong.

I say that with confidence because predictions are usually based on currently accepted information (trends). People generally assume that once a trend is established it will continue to hold. In fact, by the time a trend is established factors are already in play for that "trend" to reverse/change. Tastes change, fads come and go, new products replace old ones, old products come back into fashion ... no one ever knows when or how it will happen.

Just because bourbon (and whisky in general) is hot right now, does not necessarily mean it will continue that way. In fact, the opposite is probably true - i.e. in the not-to-distant future another drink will replace whisky as the "in-drink"

[squire]

Bet the prices stay up.

[WsmataU]

Bet the prices stay up.

Overall I agree with you Squire. I don't think we'll ever see fantastic bottles at retail in the $30/mid-shelf price range again. That said, I think the secondary market has already begun to fade. I'm guessing collectors will bunker down and only sell at auction by the time 2020 rolls around.

[WsmataU]

Oh, and I agree that I'm looking forward to some mature stocks coming out of craft distilleries that hold on!

[Quantum]

I see a greater differentiation between upper tier bourbons and the mid-shelf stuff. It looks like many companies are being more stringent about grading and assigning higher quality barrels to premium labels, and I don't really see that changing. My wild ass guess is that we are going to see more brands around the $45-$55 level, and an across the board drop in quality for anything less than $30.

[portwood]

Bet the prices stay up.

Though that is one of the safest bets (predictions) to make, it too relies on past experience (inflation) continuing.

Though extremely rare, and not a good thing if it ever came to pass, deflation is also a possibility.

[TunnelTiger]

In another thread I posted that I felt there wouldn't be any 750 bottle sub $20 this year I'll go out on a limb and say by 2020 there won't be any sub $40

[squire]

Though that is one of the safest bets (predictions) to make, it too relies on past experience (inflation) continuing.

Though extremely rare, and not a good thing if it ever came to pass, deflation is also a possibility.

[JVande]

I don't think the hysteria that we are seeing now will continue into 2020. I believe the bourbon industry has peaked in popularity and will only come back down to earth soon. Yes, I do think that from here on out there will be extra aged $125-200 offerings in limited quantities, but decent value pours will always be available at a respected price point considering the demographics of the majority of the consumers. I figure the enthusiasts take up maybe 1% of the pool. Personally, I can see myself burning out over time and completely losing interest if distilleries keep feeding us BS or if their products noticeably change in a negative way. If that happens, I will just switch over to wine full time once I deplete the bourbon bunker.

[dSculptor]

In 2020 we will all be looking for our normal pours, which most of will have become "dusty's", and we wont find them anymore on the shelves or in the back rooms, they will all be in someone's bunker who... sad to say never got the chance to drink 'em all, and will become available only on the secondary market for premium prices. Sad but true..... In order to predict the future one must look into the past.

[Oboe Cadobro]

WT101 will be $50...stock up now!

[squire]

I don't think the hysteria that we are seeing now will continue into 2020. I believe the bourbon industry has peaked in popularity and will only come back down to earth soon.

[nd2005]

I think the middle shelf offerings will remain largely unchanged (Buffalo Trace, Maker's, Woodford, etc). I'm not sure people realize that even in the midst of the current "boom" - the routine sales of these types of product make even the PVW release look like a drop in the bucket.

I think the limited release ultra-aged product will skyrocket in price even more than what we've seen so far...closely approximating the high end scotch market.

I remain skeptical that the micro-distillers will make a dent. Even if their product reaches maturity and they have the patience to sit on it until it is 8-12 years in age, we have no clue what their actual product will look like.

I do agree with Eric that anything age-stated >10 years, or anything barrel proof, will jump significantly in price.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

We are already seeing regular price increases in mid shelf products. Makers just took one, most BT products too. I would imagine these small price increases will get more frequent rather than a large jump a la scotch.

[squire]

nd has a good point, we don't know how the micros product will taste when they finally reach maturity. You can go to school and learn how to operate a still but craftsmanship can't be taught.

[garbanzobean]

The craft distilleries have all started pumping out 8-12 year bourbons like crazy, matching the big boys in quality, if not quantity. Four Roses anything is impossible to buy, due to a 2015 wake up call to the inherent quality of the distillate.

[Red One]

Interesting thread and an enjoyable read. If I were the CEO of HH or FR, I would invest substantial resources in the marketing research department. My opinion is that it is all about demographics and disposable income. Let's be honest, buying bourbon, is, for the most part, a luxury. The masses can get drunk on swill. But, the sub-masses are discovering the enjoyment of "flavor" in decent spirits and craft beers, while still enjoying a quality inebriation. Where is the economy headed? How will the boomers spend their disposable income in their retirement years (just starting now)? Fads, trends, etc.? Further, it's a real challenge to predict the outcome of a product that is not deliverable for at least 4 years, if not up to 20 or more years!

My guess is that several of the posts above have some real valid points. Those with the most disposable income are going to enjoy high quality "aged" spirits - PVW equivalents - and the status that goes along with enjoying and sharing those bottles, so that market will endure as long as the economy allows. Mid-shelf equivalents will endure because the market demands it, but the pricing will vary to match economic conditions. Just my current thinking under the slight influence of FR Single Barrel!

[suntour]

Essentially:

But with an age statement of 4 years

[r60slash5]

I predict my whiskey stash will increase in value. While my organ values drop. Until the year 2050. When Bourbon has become so expensive that a Bourbon soaked desicated liver is worth millions. My heirs would reap the benefits if not for the Bourbon Liver warehouse fire of 2044