Look into your crystal high-ball to 2020!

[393foureyedfox]

I predict my whiskey stash will increase in value. While my organ values drop. Until the year 2050. When Bourbon has become so expensive that a Bourbon soaked desicated liver is worth millions. My heirs would reap the benefits if not for the Bourbon Liver warehouse fire of 2044

maybe they could do a 'devils cut' version of your liver.....

[Flyfish]

Like the price of stocks, interest in the bourbon market will fluctuate. Distillers are adding capacity to meet demand but no trend continues in a straight line forever. It takes 4 to 24 years to bring distillate to market. There are ample opportunities for interest to increase or decrease in the next 6 years because of factors that have nothing to do with the taste of bourbon. Does an unsustainable and growing national debt of $17 trillion lead to a really significant economic crisis? How many consumers will turn to readily available, legal marijuana as their intoxicant of choice? Baby Boomers represent a huge pig in the snake. What happens as we pass on or just get sent to The Home where they won't let us indulge? There could be another glut era related to increased production and flat or declining demand.

Based on my in-depth analysis the Flintstones and the Jetsons, I conclude that we are inclined to all sorts of fantasy when it comes to predictions. Y2K fears never came to fruition. On the other hand, Amazon could very well deliver refrigerators by drone. With that said, I think that in 2020 Larceny will be the new Pappy. I know this because I have 20-20 vision.

[weller_tex]

I think that one or more of the craft distillers that have been aging in regular size barrels will produce whiskey every bit as flavorful as what we saw in the 1950's and 1960's. I don't know a lot about distilling but common sense says to me that the much barrel entry proof and the loss of the human touch (more mechanization and automation have resulted in less flavor. I reckon there are some craft distillers that are doing it the old way and correctly...

[WsmataU]

Like the price of stocks, interest in the bourbon market will fluctuate. Distillers are adding capacity to meet demand but no trend continues in a straight line forever. It takes 4 to 24 years to bring distillate to market. There are ample opportunities for interest to increase or decrease in the next 6 years because of factors that have nothing to do with the taste of bourbon. Does an unsustainable and growing national debt of $17 trillion lead to a really significant economic crisis? How many consumers will turn to readily available, legal marijuana as their intoxicant of choice? Baby Boomers represent a huge pig in the snake. What happens as we pass on or just get sent to The Home where they won't let us indulge? There could be another glut era related to increased production and flat or declining demand.

Based on my in-depth analysis the Flintstones and the Jetsons, I conclude that we are inclined to all sorts of fantasy when it comes to predictions. Y2K fears never came to fruition. On the other hand, Amazon could very well deliver refrigerators by drone. With that said, I think that in 2020 Larceny will be the new Pappy. I know this because I have 20-20 vision.

While the satire is appreciated, your focus on US demand doesn't account for global demand which completely overshadows anything the US might want. It is a global market afterall (In case the Suntory purchase didn't teach us anything). What we consider "valuable" brands may get dilluted to provide high end selections for luxury markets overseas.

[portwood]

... your focus on US demand doesn't account for global demand which completely overshadows anything the US might want. It is a global market afterall...

All true but you leave out one very important point. Many of those markets behave very much like the "wild west", where copyrights/patents/intellectual property don't have the same safeguards they do in the west. Of course Bourbon has to be produced in the USA but Burbon* doesn't, and the average person in a BRIC country may not notice the difference. Look at the amount of "whisky" that is being produced in India and bottled with very Scottish sounding names on their labels. Therefore, one cannot just extrapolate demand from the growing economies simply by using population numbers.

* misspelling done on purpose

[WsmataU]

All true but you leave out one very important point. Many of those markets behave very much like the "wild west", where copyrights/patents/intellectual property don't have the same safeguards they do in the west. Of course Bourbon has to be produced in the USA but Burbon* doesn't, and the average person in a BRIC country may not notice the difference. Look at the amount of "whisky" that is being produced in India and bottled with very Scottish sounding names on their labels. Therefore, one cannot just extrapolate demand from the growing economies simply by using population numbers.

* misspelling done on purpose

Understood, but those are two completely different markets (luxury vs everyday pours). And while I agree that everyday pours may be in much less demand (i.e. Why would a person in China want bourbon/burbon when rice wine is 1/10th the price), the luxury market tends to be much more discriminatory. Maybe that is naive on my part, but I'm sure locals can produce whisky at a much lower cost. The question then becomes about quality and what consumers are really willing to put up with.

I also think you give the US copyright system more credit than it deserves. We (the US) do not honor Japanese copyrights for Kobe beef as written in Japan. Otherwise you would never see Kobe sliders (sacrelidge in and of itself) at all the high end restaurants.

[squire]

You guys are way over my head, think I'll go have a drink.

[Grain Belt]

I am a terrible predictor. But I am a legendary hoper! I hope there will always be a large market for middle class folks with 15-30 bucks in their pocket looking for a nice pour of bourbon. I can't speak and or hope for the PVW stalker and what will happen with a market that is already whacked.

For those that know wine a little, there is a sweet spot between 10-20 bucks a bottle. This is the stuff that everyone likes at a party but its not so cheap that you get laughed at. Some is not great but some is outstanding. Marietta Old Vine Red is an example.

I hope there will be a reasonable "sweet spot" for bourbon prices in 2020.

[squire]

I hope there will be a reasonable "sweet spot" for bourbon prices in 2020.

Old Grand Dad BIB by the handle and Evan Williams Black Label by the case. Call me an optimist.

Edited January 24, 2014 by squire

[sutton]

For those that know wine a little, there is a sweet spot between 10-20 bucks a bottle. This is the stuff that everyone likes at a party but its not so cheap that you get laughed at. Some is not great but some is outstanding.

I think the wine market is a great example - different products for sure, but a good model of human producing and purchasing behavior. There are oceans of wine moved in that fighting varietal segment every year, the price has been about the same in that segment if not down a bit, and the average quality is much higher. Worldwide demand is way up, and more vineyards in all kinds of traditional and non-traditional appelations have come on line to serve that demand.

The high end stuff has simply hit the stratosphere. There is simply only so much Ch. Latour that can be produced from that terroir every year, and as more luxury dollars chase it, the price is probably 10X what it was 15 years ago.

So I think those lower and mid-shelfers will fluctuate, but generally will keep pace with inflation. The high end stuff, the sky is the limit.

Edited January 24, 2014 by callmeox
fixed broken quote block

[Grain Belt]

Old Grand Dad BIB by the handle and Evan Williams Black Label by the case. Call me an optimist.

I will be a happy man if I can get those two icons and plenty of charcoal for my trusty Weber grill.

[jonhalter]

I will be a happy man if I can get those two icons and plenty of charcoal for my trusty Weber grill.

I agree. I wouldnt be to unhappy if all I had was OGD BIB and EW black. I would miss some of the higher end pours, but Id love having the old trusties.

[HighInTheMtns]

Wild Turkey 101 will be aged 8 years, and Eagle Rare will be 101 proof.

[393foureyedfox]

Wild Turkey 101 will be aged 8 years, and Eagle Rare will be 101 proof.

damn interwebs.........I can't tell if youre being sarcastic, or an optimist

[HighInTheMtns]

damn interwebs.........I can't tell if youre being sarcastic, or an optimist

Eh, probably some of both. Things don't always change for the worse.

[squire]

Yeah, the new Chinese owners will restore the traditional ages and proofs.

[Guest]

Eh, probably some of both. Things don't always change for the worse.

[WsmataU]

damn interwebs.........I can't tell if youre being sarcastic, or an optimist

[squire]

Yes, Bourbon is the stuff that dreams are made of.

[Wryguy]

This is one of my favorites, definitely the stuff of dreams.

[WsmataU]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]17614[/ATTACH]

This is one of my favorites, definitely the stuff of dreams.

I'm going to steal this...my new signature

[squire]

A simple phrase can be a beautiful thing.

[PaulO]

Seriously, I'm an optimist. I don't think it will be a race to the bottom. There will be NAS 80 proof stuff, but also extra aged stock, high proof, single barrel etc. We're dealing with an oligopoly, not a monopoly. The premium market is too profitable for any firm to ignore. Competition among the big players is a good thing. My fantasy is Suntory stops production of Overholt, and Crow, then re-releases each as B.I.B. after recreating the original pre-Beam recipe.

[393foureyedfox]

My fantasy is Suntory stops production of Overholt, and Crow, then re-releases each as B.I.B. after recreating the original pre-Beam recipe.

Id like to see that too. My grandfather, who retired from ND, used to bring home a case of Old Crow every Christmas ( i was too young to remember, but thats what dad told me) and throw one hell of a christmas multi-day party. Old Crow was his thing. Ive not had the current OC, but heard its nothing like it used to be. Plus, I'll try anything BIB.

[squire]

My grandfather, who retired from ND, used to bring home a case of Old Crow every Christmas . . . . Old Crow was his thing. Ive not had the current OC, but heard its nothing like it used to be.