Is the barrel shortage the reason?

[TunnelTiger]

After reading numerous blogs this week detailing the Bourbon barrel shortage I was wondering if this could be having a lot to do with items being missing on the shelves more so than increased demand?

When JDs new cooperage in north Al is up and running will they have more than they can use?

As with any shortage there will be a price hike. How will this translate to shelf pricing?

If I don't have something to worry about with my new hobby I just wouldn't be myself.

[squire]

They haven't perfected the GMO trees yet.

[sku]

After reading numerous blogs this week detailing the Bourbon barrel shortage I was wondering if this could be having a lot to do with items being missing on the shelves more so than increased demand?

When JDs new cooperage in north Al is up and running will they have more than they can use?

As with any shortage there will be a price hike. How will this translate to shelf pricing?

If I don't have something to worry about with my new hobby I just wouldn't be myself.

A barrel shortage isn't impacting what's on the shelves now since they were barreled years ago. It could impact what's on the shelves in five or ten years.

[flahute]

A barrel shortage isn't impacting what's on the shelves now since they were barreled years ago. It could impact what's on the shelves in five or ten years.

This is what I was going to also say. Now it's time to cue up another reason for us all to go out and stock up which contributes to the shortages we're seeing on the shelves right now.

[TunnelTiger]

A barrel shortage isn't impacting what's on the shelves now since they were barreled years ago. It could impact what's on the shelves in five or ten years.

That makes more sense and is even more depressing.

[danz]

A barrel shortage isn't impacting what's on the shelves now since they were barreled years ago. It could impact what's on the shelves in five or ten years.

When I did a little research into Four Roses's statements on barrel shortages a couple of months ago, the impression I ended up with is that a significant part of the situation in the past few months has been due to the weather: people couldn't get out to cut down the trees. However, the trees are apparently out there, so the long-term effect may not be as big as current supplies might suggest. But, since there are a lot of people trying to spin the story, it is also hard to know how reliable these accounts are.

[sku]

When I did a little research into Four Roses's statements on barrel shortages a couple of months ago, the impression I ended up with is that a significant part of the situation in the past few months has been due to the weather: people couldn't get out to cut down the trees. However, the trees are apparently out there, so the long-term effect may not be as big as current supplies might suggest. But, since there are a lot of people trying to spin the story, it is also hard to know how reliable these accounts are.

I agree with that. Haven't seen a straight answer about whether there really is an overall shortage of oak/barrels or just supply chain issues.

Edited March 22, 2014 by sku

[squire]

Well, there is no shortage of trees.

[tigerlam92]

How about charred bamboo barrel?

[flahute]

Well, there is no shortage of trees.

I can't find it now, but I read somewhere in the past few days that indeed it's not a matter of tree availability but the availability of experienced loggers to go out and get them. I don't know anything about tree sourcing for barrels and the process of bringing them into the mills or cooperages to know if this statement holds any water. Can't any logger go out and chop down a tree or does it really take the right kind of know how for barrel specific trees?

[squire]

Anybody with a chain saw, skidder and a log truck.

[VT Mike]

I just looked at the online store section of Independent Stave Company's web site. It says they are currently on allocation and unable to take any new order. It also mentions that they hope to be addressing new inquiries with the next 6 to 12 months.

[TunnelTiger]

Man a 6 to 12 month waiting list! You know that is bringing on a price increase.

Not good for us consumer but working for a mfg company I know how much we enjoy it when that happens which isn't very often.

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[Vadertime]

With about half the US population on the dole, you'd think a well paying job would be attractive. But I suppose there is no Twitter in the middle of the woods?

[squire]

I don't think the problem is on the wood supply end, rather the bottleneck is with the barrel manufacturers who are faced with more demand than they can meet.

[Harry in WashDC]

I don't think the problem is on the wood supply end, rather the bottleneck is with the barrel manufacturers who are faced with more demand than they can meet.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Harry in WashDC

[squire]

A craftsman at the Colonial Williamsburg shop told me years age, "anyone can make a cracker barrel but only a craftsman can make a watertight barrel".

[Harry in WashDC]

A craftsman at the Colonial Williamsburg shop told me years age, "anyone can make a cracker barrel but only a craftsman can make a watertight barrel".

[cowdery]

I can't find it now, but I read somewhere in the past few days that indeed it's not a matter of tree availability but the availability of experienced loggers to go out and get them. I don't know anything about tree sourcing for barrels and the process of bringing them into the mills or cooperages to know if this statement holds any water. Can't any logger go out and chop down a tree or does it really take the right kind of know how for barrel specific trees?

We have the correct answer right here. Weather has also been a factor but this is the more significant longer-term factor. It will correct, but may take awhile. The forests are very healthy. The stock of trees is growing faster than they can be cut so each year, despite the number that are taken, there are more available than the year before. There is also plenty of cooperage capacity. The problem is getting enough trees cut and to the stave mills. This problem may persist for awhile if demand keeps growing. Even if the gap keeps getting smaller, it may take some time (i.e., years) to close it, but that's the problem. It's not the forests and it's not the cooperages.

This is a relatively recent problem so it has nothing to do with shortages of whiskey at the shelf. Though it may be a contributing factor in a few years, it's not now.

Edited March 30, 2014 by cowdery

[VT Mike]

I don't think the problem is on the wood supply end, rather the bottleneck is with the barrel manufacturers who are faced with more demand than they can meet.

I think you're right squire. If you look through ISC's website, they have options for American Oak, European Oak and French Oak. All three are available with staves that were air dried for 24 months. The American Oak also has options for 18 months of air drying or kiln drying. I doubt they would stop taking new orders across the board for up to a year if it was just a wood supply issue.

[squire]

Chuck I don't believe that for a moment. My family has been in the timber business for generations and during my career as an attorney I represented, growers, loggers and mill operators. When there is a market demand for a certain type of timber (red oak for cabinetry and floors for instance) there is no shortage of those willing to harvest and deliver logs to the mill. It is no more difficult to cut a white oak tree than a pine, dogwood or any other dry land timber. Cypress can be a bit tricky because it sorta grows in a swamp. The only difficulty in harvesting white oak is the trees sometimes grow on an incline but the technology to overcome that has been around since after WWII when all sorts of heavy duty surplus machinery became available.

Things slow down for everybody from the tree farmer to the mill owner when market demand goes soft such as when the housing market slows down. In times of high demand labor to harvest trees is the easiest obstacle to overcome.

I believe the barrel shortage is unique to that part of the industry that produces whisky barrels. I don't think they were prepared for the upswing in demand for their product and there is no reason they should have forseen it coming. As Mike corectly pointed out above the staves have to have a drying out period (they can be kilned of course but not everybody wants that sort of barrel) and heretofore the barrel makers didn't have the incentive to front the costs (insurance alone on a lot full of drying wood is tremendous) stockpiling stave wood when there wasn't an apparent market for the barrels.

Rainfall indeed, these guys work outdoors. The only thing that keeps loggers out of the woods during rain is lightning.

[Vadertime]

Two things:

1. For the young fellas: Looking for a stable well paying job that cannot be offshored? Being a cooper could be a noble profession for you. When the economy is good and bad alchohol does rather well (just like used cars). You can always get your accounting degree online.

2. On a recent layover in LAX, I overheard a conversation between a California mill owner and another chap. It turns out that the mill business was super hot when the housing business was on fire, but there was much consolidation afterwards. During this time, this mill owner had bought out his competition for pennies on the dollar. He also said that things were starting to pick up (this was in early January 2014).

It could be a milled wood shortage AND a cooperage issue?

[cowdery]

My source is the president of the largest cooperage of the country. Is he mistaken? Lying? I've given you the facts. Go ahead and believe whatever idle conjecture fits your prejudices.

If you wonder why I seem offended, consider that you have just said I'm either lying or don't know my business, neither of which is exactly a compliment.

Edited March 31, 2014 by cowdery

[squire]

Oh come now Chuck, mean spirited personal attacks are the refuge of those who can't think of anything to say. You apparently have no personal experience in the timber industry and the only fact you have given me is you are acquainted with the president of the country's largest cooperage which isn't a fact, rather it's bragging. I do not know what labor problems that gentleman may be facing but I can give you a couple of genuine facts:

1) There no shortage of trees (your conjecture on that point is correct) as can be verified by checking with the Forestry Department of any State that has a logging industry, and,

2) A survey of the permits issued to loggers in those States will show there is no shortage of folks willing to cut those trees.

[tanstaafl2]

You apparently have no personal experience in the timber industry and the only fact you have given me is you are acquainted with the president of the country's largest cooperage which isn't a fact, rather it's bragging.