The New Cost of Bourbon

[mbroo5880i]

I purchased a store select FR single barrel today. I paid $49.99. A few years ago that would have been a step up to the limited bourbon range. However, at today's prices, given the quality and taste it seems like a pretty good deal. $50 used to be my tipping point (i.e., it had to be pretty special before I would pay more). Is that the case any more? I don't know. FRSB standard is around $36 on average. While OBSV is a great recipe, I don't see $14 as that much more for something unique. Mind you, I still drink in the $20 to $30 range most of the time.

Just curious what others think?

[squire]

I think higher prices are due to demand and producer expectations. We are also seeing lower ages and proof going along with higher prices so to me it's just a sign of the times.

[CL]

I happily buy at the FR GS for $63 before tax (mid-April price). Sure, if I had a local store (all state stores in NC) that was good at picking, I'd give them the business. But, during my twice yearly visits to KY, I am happy to stock up at FR. Where else can you get a damn good bourbon picked by Jim Rutledge that easily? ;-)

[GaryT]

I purchased a store select FR single barrel today. I paid $49.99. A few years ago that would have been a step up to the limited bourbon range. However, at today's prices, given the quality and taste it seems like a pretty good deal. $50 used to be my tipping point (i.e., it had to be pretty special before I would pay more). Is that the case any more? I don't know. FRSB standard is around $36 on average. While OBSV is a great recipe, I don't see $14 as that much more for something unique. Mind you, I still drink in the $20 to $30 range most of the time.

Just curious what others think?

Is it a special pick of OBSV at 100 proof, or a barrel proof of another recipe? The barrel proofers around here range from $55 - $60, and I don't think that price is unreasonable. I haven't yet bought a FRSB of any recipe that I poured out - into anything other than my glass!

[mbroo5880i]

It is a barrel proof and I agree that it was a good price. I guess it just struck me as funny that I found it to be a bargain at $50. Two or three years ago, I would have probably ruminated all the way home about whether I should have spent that much.

As squire points out, it is a sign of the times...higher prices and younger whiskey.

It seems like most of the mid-shelf items are solidly in the $30 range now with some even in the $40s. There are still some great choices in the sub-$20 range but the $20 range has become the new $30, the old $30 the new $40 and so on.

[393foureyedfox]

depends on on what level you shop. If youre an upper shelfer only, the distilelries and stores have pretty much figured out that you're willing to pay more, so you will be expected to pay more. The lower shelf, and some of the middle shelf hasnt seen much in the way of price increases, but is experiencing age changes. Im generally a mid-low shelf guy, and of those, only WT has taken a price increase, and generally only $3 or so a 750, but if you look around, many of them have $3 coupons on the necks. My two upper shelf picks, Booker's and Dickel 9, havent seen any price increases, yet. In fact, Sams now has Booker's for $3-5 less than normal store prices. I buy Dickel 9 every time I see it, still fearing it wont be a long term release, at least not at the current $46 price.

[HOF44]

For barrel proofs or juice with a nice pedigree I have no problem paying in the 50-100 range. Over a 100 makes my eyebrows raise and research must be done.

[The Black Tot]

I've bought a few expensive ones.

But I think we may be surprised. I don't see the boom that's putting the stretch on everything as being solidly sustainable.

Yes, we're going to have a few hard years ahead. But I'm thinking of all the boutique start ups that will have 8yr product in 5 more years. Their current product is rushed to market by business necessity, but I think there will be more higher end options once we jump that hurdle, which should expand supply at the gourmet end of things.

I also think people get sick of hunting unicorns that they never succeed in getting. The straight up boredom with the consistent failure will knock some of the steam out of the craze in a few years.

Add in that many producers couldn't (and still can't) resist taking the risk of ramping up production in recent years to try and catch up, I can see the other arc of this sine wave coming not too far down the line.

Bottom line? Some of the modern stuff is still worth some higher dollars just due to being special and unique. But there's no cause for Whiskey Nervosa.

Good bunkers can still be built with bottles $40 and under that will competently weather this, as any, bourbon boom.

One man's prediction

tbt

[393foureyedfox]

id be willing to bet that TBT Is right on this. yet, i cant help the urge to stock up on stuff, even though i know that most of my stockups arent rare to begin with. Plus, two of my faves have rebates on them currently that tempt me further. whats a guy supposed to do?!

[MauiSon]

I think if you're happy with 8yo product, you have no worries. If you want product older than 10, your wallet will feel it.

[393foureyedfox]

I think if you're happy with 8yo product, you have no worries. If you want product older than 10, your wallet will feel it.

in a perfect world (to me), every distillery would make 8 year/100 proof bourbons

[squire]

And bottle them as BIBs.

[mbroo5880i]

I see the logic in TBT's post. I work in heavy manufacturing. We find that new capacity often comes on line at the "top" of the cycle while the smart players add capacity when others are shutting down. As new producers bring their products to market we should see some stabilization. The only concern I have is that many new producers are introducing young products at prices greater than their value. Rarely do prices come down so as with the "glut" there may be a time in the future where older whiskey sneaks back into the product. Of course, that may be a quite a ways down the road. The other concern that I have relative to bourbon is its increase popularity globally. This may skew the supply/demand equation more than in the past.

[393foureyedfox]

The other concern that I have relative to bourbon is its increase popularity globally. This may skew the supply/demand equation more than in the past.

this more than anything. US population of 350 million (roughly 1/3 of a billion) and global population of 7 Billion. Everyone aims at global markets now, and there are 20 times more non-americans as there at americans....as long as new markets are continuing to open up, I dont see things leveling off anytime soon.

this just makes me want to go bunker more stuff

[jmj_203]

this more than anything. US population of 350 million (roughly 1/3 of a billion) and global population of 7 Billion. Everyone aims at global markets now, and there are 20 times more non-americans as there at americans....as long as new markets are continuing to open up, I dont see things leveling off anytime soon.

this just makes me want to go bunker more stuff

Yet I get odd looks in my controlled state when I walk out twice a week with 6 bottles in my bag. They think I'm nuts, but prices will never be cheaper thats a given with globalization of bourbon. I'm just crossing my fingers for a downturn in demand and a future with thousands upon thousands of orphaned aged barrels in a decade when I hit my forties. Hoping, hoping, hoping....

[393foureyedfox]

Yet I get odd looks in my controlled state when I walk out twice a week with 6 bottles in my bag. They think I'm nuts, but prices will never be cheaper thats a given with globalization of bourbon. I'm just crossing my fingers for a downturn in demand and a future with thousands upon thousands of orphaned aged barrels in a decade when I hit my forties. Hoping, hoping, hoping....

okay, lets all start passing the word that bourbon sucks and vodka and beer is where its at!

[HighInTheMtns]

okay, lets all start passing the word that bourbon sucks and vodka and beer is where its at!

Beer market has enough problems, Doug... It makes the bourbon market look normal. Please leave it alone.

Apart from that I advocate this scheme. Vodka and gin? Those can be made in quantity easily.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

depends on on what level you shop. If youre an upper shelfer only, the distilelries and stores have pretty much figured out that you're willing to pay more, so you will be expected to pay more. The lower shelf, and some of the middle shelf hasnt seen much in the way of price increases, but is experiencing age changes. Im generally a mid-low shelf guy, and of those, only WT has taken a price increase, and generally only $3 or so a 750, but if you look around, many of them have $3 coupons on the necks. My two upper shelf picks, Booker's and Dickel 9, havent seen any price increases, yet. In fact, Sams now has Booker's for $3-5 less than normal store prices. I buy Dickel 9 every time I see it, still fearing it wont be a long term release, at least not at the current $46 price.

All 3 big diagio Non scotch whiskeys took a price increase recently. Crown, bulleit and Dickel.

Dickel 9 just isn't a big mover in these parts so the stores that carry it are sitting on inventory from before the price increase.

[Tony Santana]

I'm willing to shell out more than what I'd ordinarily spend for a special/limited edition item from one of the big boys - even if I haven't tasted it yet. Booker's 25th, Parker's Heritage Collection, Four Roses Limited Edition, etc. Those guys have earned my trust, and even if I'm not going to be wowed by the bottle to the point where I say to myself "yeah, that's worth $85 (or whatever)", I'm almost certain to be drinking and enjoying a good bourbon. And I got into this hobby at a point in my life where I can afford it, so what the hell.

The craft guys are all scrambling to get market share, and to some extent I suspect they're driving up prices. I won't buy any of their stuff without first tasting and forming an opinion. For example, I tried Breckenridge, and I like it, but I don't like it $40 or $45 a bottle worth. I'd still rather buy an EC12 or OGD114 or ER10 for considerably less. The only craft people I trust at this point are Smooth Ambler and High West.

[petrel800]

I noticed the "younger" statement in the thread a couple of times, but I've really been surprised by the 4 Roses BP offerings I have seen lately. Even during our barrel selection a couple of weeks ago. The ages on these things have actually seemed to increase as opposed to decrease. I've seen a lot of 10yr + stuff on here. Our OBSK selection was over 9 years old and the OESO we did over 11. I have been pleasantly surprised with 4 Roses on this front. A couple local stores here had 12 yr + OESV and most of the F yeast stuff this year I've seen and read about has been in the 11 year range.

Now with demand, I'm sure all good things will come to an end and eventually the 4 roses stuff will migrate towards the 8 year mark and below, but for the time being, being a 4R fan, we're sitting pretty. At least that's my opinion and at $50-60 a bottle for BP stuff in the 9, 10 and 11 year + ranges, stock up now.