Fuel for the Flippers

[KyleCBreese]

The title alone is all you need... "Whisky Investing Brings Huge Returns"

http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/investing/whiskey-investing/index.html?iid=HP_LN

[suntour]

I just don't understand how this is such a thing. The liquor industry is so uber-regulated, even down to restaurants' sale of spirits, its just amazing to me so many people have no problem with flagrantly selling liquor on the black market.

[jvd99]

That article was geared toward the legal auctions of whisk(e)y (mostly single malts) in the UK and other countries from which the raw data for the whisky index is sourced. However, recently, the whiskey index started including things like Pappy and BTAC. The index and a summary of notable sales is published in every issue of Whisky Advocate and it also has its own website. The black market here in the US is most definitely still illegal though.

[Flyfish]

Is there any way to estimate the scope of illegal flipping in the US? Are there cartels of "bootleggers" who operate on a commercial scale that the ATF boys are chasing? If you buy an extra bottle or two for a neighbor when you pass through KY and he tips you 10% for the courtesy, are you a flipper? If you see three bottles of GTS and buy them all so the hoarders don't get their hands on them, are you despicable? Is the extent of your moral decay indicated by your willingness to charge your lottery winning brother-in-law a 500% markup because he believes that price is the best indicator of quality?

[Josh]

Fat Tony: Bart, is it wrong to steal a loaf of bread to feed your starving family?

Bart: No.

Fat Tony: Well, suppose you got a large starving family. Is it wrong to steal a truckload of bread to feed them?

Bart: Uh uh.

Fat Tony: And, what if your family don't like bread? They like... cigarettes?

Bart: I guess that's okay.

Fat Tony: Now, what if instead of giving them away, you sold them at a price that was practically giving them away. Would that be a crime, Bart?

Bart: Hell, no.

[bin31z]

by the time article like this hits the news, the profit has already all been made, anyone trying to get into it now will be the suckers.

[sutton]

Fat Tony: Bart, is it wrong to steal a loaf of bread to feed your starving family?

Bart: No.

Fat Tony: Well, suppose you got a large starving family. Is it wrong to steal a truckload of bread to feed them?

Bart: Uh uh.

Fat Tony: And, what if your family don't like bread? They like... cigarettes?

Bart: I guess that's okay.

Fat Tony: Now, what if instead of giving them away, you sold them at a price that was practically giving them away. Would that be a crime, Bart?

Bart: Hell, no.

Perfect ... we all draw our own lines.

[jvd99]

by the time article like this hits the news, the profit has already all been made, anyone trying to get into it now will be the suckers.

Not necessarily, there's plenty of room for the profiteers to make a quick buck immediately after a release - Bowmore Devils Cask from last year comes to mind. People went nuts when it was released and the flippers took advantage immediately thereafter in the UK auction houses. I agree though that anyone buying on the secondary market expecting significant appreciation is out of their mind. Same with Diageo single malt LEs which are priced very similar if not higher than the secondary market.

[The Black Tot]

Double, double, toil and trouble,

Watch out for the bourbon bubble...

[GaryT]

I believe there is a bourbon bubble coming for sure. On the ATF chasing folks down, there are some very active flippers out there, but I doubt the ATF wants to bother with it. Taxes are collected when sold at retail; it isn't like the government isn't getting their money - so for them there isn't a lot of upside. I think if you saw flippers selling to kids; it would become a problem (allegedly why eBay started cracking down).

[shoshani]

If you see three bottles of GTS and buy them all so the hoarders don't get their hands on them, are you despicable?

I would argue that if I see three bottles of GTS and buy them all so the hoarders don't get their hands on them, I myself will have become a hoarder.

[HOF44]

I would argue that if I see three bottles of GTS and buy them all so the hoarders don't get their hands on them, I myself will have become a hoarder.

I don't have a real problem with hoarders as long as the plan is to drink it. Now flippers suck.

[B.B. Babington]

there's a local hoarder that ticks me off. he drinks some, doesn't quick flip, but grabs the whole case for "investment" to sell later. And gets mad if someone buys a bottle from the case before he snags the whole thing. I used to be more polite and leave goodies on the shelf so others can benefit, but now not in the stores he frequents.

[nd2005]

I will freely admit I will hoard any and all bottles of BTAC, Van Winkle, or Four Roses limiteds I run across. Too scarce and always a chance I will get skunked the next time around. I will be drinking them all eventually.

Every store I frequent has enacted 1 per customer limits so its likely never going to be an issue. But just saying.

[wadewood]

The ATF has no interest in pursuing this. It would need to be pursued on a state level and I don't think any state alcohol agency gives a damn about this.

[The Black Tot]

I will freely admit I will hoard any and all bottles of BTAC, Van Winkle, or Four Roses limiteds I run across. Too scarce and always a chance I will get skunked the next time around. I will be drinking them all eventually.

Every store I frequent has enacted 1 per customer limits so its likely never going to be an issue. But just saying.

[jvd99]

I'd have no problem buying 3 GTS if given the opportunity. I will drink them, save them to drink later, transfer at cost to SBers or others who got shut out, or trade with someone who has something else I couldn't get my hands on. I know for a fact that flippers shop at my main store, which is a smaller outfit, because I see the store selects on the secondary market. I don't lose a second of sleep over buying what I can get, or what the store owner allows me to get. In fact, I sleep a little better knowing a flipper didn't get his prize.

[P&MLiquorsEric]

The ATF has no interest in pursuing this. It would need to be pursued on a state level and I don't think any state alcohol agency gives a damn about this.

This. The Feds might care if someone is selling a tractor trailers worth of bourbon still in barrels.

[The Black Tot]

In fact, I sleep a little better knowing a flipper didn't get his prize.