Whiskey boom echoing through the lower shelves

[BigBoldBully]

“Took it for granted so long that I can barely believe it is gone.â€

How many times has this happened over the years? An under-the-radar label we once thought of as the definition of stability and so never felt a need to stock up on, suddenly changes or becomes unavailable.

For me, the most recent example is Old Grand Dad BIB. It started happening insidiously even before I heard about the label change. Retailers in my area that once carried the bond began carrying the 80 (formerly 86) proof in its place. Most I talked to do not even seem to realize they are now selling 80 proof in the same spot--and for the same price–that for years had been occupied by the BIB. A couple of weeks ago the changeover hit at my one remaining go-to store, a place where the supply had seemed so endless. The bond for $13 something a bottle is suddenly a sea of 80 proof for $13 something a bottle, masquerading under the same hand written shelf sticker. The owner told me he could still get me a case of the bonded, but when I called later to verify the price, I was informed it is up to $25 a bottle (no idea if it will be screw tops or the new corks)! I returned to where they always sold liters at what seemed slightly overpriced around $20. Gone.

In hindsight, the handwriting may have been on the wall with this one. Suntory acquisition, increased sales of Basil Hayden, lowered proof on the entry level version, etc. But it was not unambiguous. (Many here breathed a sigh of relief that the dilution of the 86 was said intended to “protect†the BIB and 114, preserving the status quo of the ones we cared most about.)

Maybe we have grown used to the quickening pace of change in today’s market. Maybe we have learned, for the most part, not to take the continued availability or value pricing of anything for granted. Yet, as the whiskey boom may be sweeping through the lower shelves, I think the potential for some surprise is still there.

Has anything surprised you lately? Or, alternatively, have you any predictions for the next repositioning or disappearance of a bottom shelfer?

[kjbeggs]

Less than two years ago, I could walk into just about any liquor store in my area and find ETL plentiful on the shelf. Then it just disappeared. A few months later it was Weller 12, and now OWA seems to be close behind. And while I can still find both fairly easily, I'm no longer surprised to see an empty space where the OGD114 and Ritt100 Rye are supposed to be.

[dcbt]

I'll second the ETL lament. I vividly remember the first time I didn't see it on a shelf 1.5-2 years ago, thinking to myself as I walked out in disgust: "What kind of store doesn't carry ETL?" As it turns out, all of them, since I haven't seen it on a shelf since Nov 2013 (and the one I found then was literally caked in dust).

[BigBoldBully]

Ah yes, ETL. I have noticed it on the shelf exactly once. It was during my travels and at the time, regrettably, I was mostly on the hunt for limited releases and whatnot.

[Harry in WashDC]

Less than two years ago, I could walk into just about any liquor store in my area and find ETL plentiful on the shelf. Then it just disappeared. A few months later it was Weller 12, and now OWA seems to be close behind. And while I can still find both fairly easily, I'm no longer surprised to see an empty space where the OGD114 and Ritt100 Rye are supposed to be.

Those of us who purchased gasoline during the early 1970s gasoline shortage have seen this before. Back then, before the "crisis", AAA surveys showed that the average person filled up then drove around until they had less than 1/4 tank - usually closer to zero than 1/4. THEN, we freaked. During the "crisis " (OMG, gas approaching $1.00 a gallon even though Senator Scoop Jackson (D-Wash-Old Faht) said we'd never see it!!), there were gas shortages everywhere, but surveys showed that the average driver carried in EXCESS of 1/4 tank of gas around at all times. Where'd the gas go? There were BILLions of gallons of gasoline that otherwise could have been for sale being toted around in car gas tanks. Also, similarly, look at what happened to toilet paper when Johnny Carson made a joke about how it, too, was becoming scarce - some great MBA studies floating around out there if you are interested. In short - how many of us have increased the size of our bunkers in order to ensure that "we" don't get hit when a rumored shortage occurs. Reminds me of when I was in Albania in 1990. I asked some guys I knew why they were cutting down the few remaining trees in the neighborhood. "So the bandits from the next town don't get them," was the answer. The trees were still gone. I'm just as guilty as the next - I've cleared (or, taken huge armloads) bottles when things "change" like VOB "6 years" and "OWA" when I can get it, etc.

Rant over; remorse setting in: Please tell me that's human nature and not something terrible.:searching:

Edit - Oh, yeah, and I bought only one of the three bottles of ETL that were sitting on the shelf last week. My arms were filled with OWA when I saw it..

[jackthedog]

I think ETL is probably the biggest indicator in my area. I've visited most of the ABC stores in my area and they just don't have it (and haven't had it). I managed to snag one bottle when a shipment arrived but that was almost 6 months ago and I haven't seen it since.

[LakeJ]

ETL was so easy to come by at my go to stores and now I haven't seen not one bottle in months. The same for Weller 12, that has come sporadic. I've seen on the Internet that one spirits site selling Weller 12 for $199. Sad times have started to arrive my friends.

[R-Savage]

ETL is impossible to get up here. That is one bourbon I would love to get my hands on for the bunker

[jackthedog]

ETL was so easy to come by at my go to stores and now I haven't seen not one bottle in months. The same for Weller 12, that has come sporadic. I've seen on the Internet that one spirits site selling Weller 12 for $199. Sad times have started to arrive my friends.

That's pretty crazy. I would consider stocking up on some EWBIB or EC12 but they seem to be readily available. I've noticed Buffalo Trace has actually begun to be a bit harder to find (or at least more out of stock) at the store I visit most.

[starkmoney]

That's pretty crazy. I would consider stocking up on some EWBIB or EC12 but they seem to be readily available. I've noticed Buffalo Trace has actually begun to be a bit harder to find (or at least more out of stock) at the store I visit most.

Jack a lot of BT products are in rough shape. Everything from WL Weller to Sazerac to BT is always flying off the shelf even here in Kentucky. I have been buying every bottle of OWA W12 I can get my hands on.

[393foureyedfox]

to me, it has been HH6BIB. used to be on the bottom shelf everywhere, now I can about count the places I still see it on one hand, and Im in bourbon-homeland, USA.

[RepTucker]

A lot of old standards have gone the way of the Dodo in MS. ETL is a twice a year shipper, Weller 12 we only got for the first time this year and not much, BT has gone special order, Blantons the same. OWA and Weller SR are gone more often than not. Got plenty of Beam and heavenhill products though. I can still locate ETL ever once in a while. Stocked up a while back tho.

[garbanzobean]

to me, it has been HH6BIB. used to be on the bottom shelf everywhere, now I can about count the places I still see it on one hand, and Im in bourbon-homeland, USA.

[BourbonGuy]

My strategy to prevent frustration, is not to focus on what I can't get, but what I can get. No ETL, no OWA, ok, I'll pick up a Buffalo Trace, and Old Grand Dad 114.

No OGD, pick up a 4 roses. I have been shut out of many old favorites and found some new (to me) interesting selections. Yes, I have picked up a few bottles not to my liking, but that how I learn.

[PaulO]

I don't know if I'd call it the lower shelves: more the mid shelves to me. I see plenty of Beam labels, and a good amount of HH stuff (except for the stories of the stray ECBP that came and vanished in no time). I can find 4R products without a problem, if I wanted to. It's the Sazerac brands that have disappeared. Up until a few years ago they had some great brands selling for $20 - $30. I'm talking about OWA, W12, and ETL. RHF was good too, but a little pricey (now even more scarce and pricey). The brands BT has been able to keep on shelves just aren't that interesting to me.

[393foureyedfox]

Are you sure that it's not just because you bought it all?

touche!

for a while there, that was true. some places never restocked it, a few did. Im kinda surprised that two of the 3 LBs in louisville dropped it, though they both kept the 6 year 90 proofer.

[MTNBourbon]

Here in UT we do not get alot of stuff that you people get, shit I did not even know about the other stuff at all. Then joining some sites and finding out how bad UT really is. My regulars that are usually in stock (Old Forester Signature, WTKS, WTRB, BT, Bulleit, Woodford Reserve, EC12).

Edited February 20, 2015 by MTNBourbon

[petrel800]

Hard for me to consider ETL a lower shelfer and while available, it was never stocked to the gills on the shelves around here. I can think of several times 3-5 years ago where I'd go into a store for it and it would be out. Now typically it was only gone for a week or so, but it was restocked. I just never remember seeing it displayed in multiple rows 6 and 7 deep like you would see a AAA or HH lower shelfer.

For me, AAA 10 year going away was tough, it was a killer value in my mind and for my taste. It was lower proof, but that worked out nicely as well since it was a great summer sipper here in GA where it gets a little hot and humid. The loss of several private selection options have also been tough. I haven't had the best of luck with EC12 off the shelf, but a few of the locals who selected barrels had similar palates to mine and picked out some gems.

[dSculptor]

IMO, Harry hit on the head...Aren't we the ones with the big bunkers to blame for empty shelves? Back in the day when the stuff was all over the place we didn't have to worry about going to our local LS and picking up our fav.,but when the boom started to hit, who were the ones clearing out shelves? The newbies? I think it was the old timers clearing them out in fear that the newbies would get it first. I just did it the other day ..clearing out 4 out of 6 bottles of OWA, (my bro took one and we left one on the shelf),did I really need it, probably not, but I got it nonetheless. Guilty as charged. I guess I really don't consider myself an old timer,(when it comes to bourbon anyway) but for sure not a newbie either, just in the middle somewhere. Really though ... there is plenty out there.

[BigBoldBully]

IMO, Harry hit on the head...Aren't we the ones with the big bunkers to blame for empty shelves? Back in the day when the stuff was all over the place we didn't have to worry about going to our local LS and picking up our fav.,but when the boom started to hit, who were the ones clearing out shelves? The newbies? I think it was the old timers clearing them out in fear that the newbies would get it first. I just did it the other day ..clearing out 4 out of 6 bottles of OWA, (my bro took one and we left one on the shelf),did I really need it, probably not, but I got it nonetheless. Guilty as charged. I guess I really don't consider myself an old timer,(when it comes to bourbon anyway) but for sure not a newbie either, just in the middle somewhere. Really though ... there is plenty out there.

This is certainly part of it, but I don't think people who were actually going to buy and drink it anyway are more than a temporary problem. I mean, so what if I buy my year's worth (or even two year's worth) of OWA now instead of a little at a time? Normally, restocking would soon take care of it and the new stuff would sit longer and longer as more and more of us abstain for a while (given our stocked bunkers). I would guess the scarcity has more to do with those who got into bourbon because of the boom itself generating buzz, the bandwagon jumpers. (So I am absolving those like me who simply got into whiskey more heavily as part of a normal spirits exploration evolution :cool: ).

But also the flippers and thinking-of-becoming flippers. I cannot believe how many people I have overheard buying up mid-shelf stuff like Weller, BT, ER, who say something to their companions that leads me think they are treating the bottles like baseball cards or shares of stock.

[RWBadley]

snip

But also the flippers and thinking-of-becoming flippers. I cannot believe how many people I have overheard buying up mid-shelf stuff like Weller, BT, ER, who say something to their companions that leads me think they are treating the bottles like baseball cards or shares of stock.

Here's the issue- these guys do this because they see what has happened to BTAC, Pappy, Weller 12 etc... and expect it to continue. If they see a local retailer trying to get $199 for that Weller 12 and they see another store has it for $24.99 - they will clear the shelf, whether or not they enjoy or drink the stuff as it's like money in the bank. I'd clear the shelf too if I saw it loaded with $25 Weller 12- for the bunker and consumption purposes :cool:

[flahute]

This is certainly part of it, but I don't think people who were actually going to buy and drink it anyway are more than a temporary problem. I mean, so what if I buy my year's worth (or even two year's worth) of OWA now instead of a little at a time? Normally, restocking would soon take care of it and the new stuff would sit longer and longer as more and more of us abstain for a while (given our stocked bunkers). I would guess the scarcity has more to do with those who got into bourbon because of the boom itself generating buzz, the bandwagon jumpers. (So I am absolving those like me who simply got into whiskey more heavily as part of a normal spirits exploration evolution :cool: ).

But also the flippers and thinking-of-becoming flippers. I cannot believe how many people I have overheard buying up mid-shelf stuff like Weller, BT, ER, who say something to their companions that leads me think they are treating the bottles like baseball cards or shares of stock.

[garbanzobean]

IMO, Harry hit on the head...Aren't we the ones with the big bunkers to blame for empty shelves? Back in the day when the stuff was all over the place we didn't have to worry about going to our local LS and picking up our fav.,but when the boom started to hit, who were the ones clearing out shelves? The newbies? I think it was the old timers clearing them out in fear that the newbies would get it first. I just did it the other day ..clearing out 4 out of 6 bottles of OWA, (my bro took one and we left one on the shelf),did I really need it, probably not, but I got it nonetheless. Guilty as charged. I guess I really don't consider myself an old timer,(when it comes to bourbon anyway) but for sure not a newbie either, just in the middle somewhere. Really though ... there is plenty out there.

[dcbt]

I see Weller 12 (among others) showing up daily in various facebook groups to be flipped. Some of these guys don't even wait until they get home and post up the dreaded "in the car" photo.

[The Black Tot]

It's the bunkering. Bunkers like ours were not planned for in production forecasts. They made forecasts based on how much America drinks, nobody could plan for how much America would hoard. Even though the drinking of whiskey is up above forecasts, the bunkering is just gasoline on that fire.

Once we all switch to drinking down our bunkers instead of building them up, the exact opposite will occur. It will take longer for the limiteds, even people with full bunkers won't say no to a BTAC at MSRP, for example. But they'll also be able to ramp up the limiteds several years after the standards are left alone. Every bubble must burst.