The bubble started much earlier, much much earlier...

[Zeke]

Howdy!

(x/posted with r/bourbon)

In reading up on the history of Maryland Rye (the second full paragraph on page 372 - or 27 of the pdf), I discovered that there was an auction in 1943 of some pre-prohibition bottles. A 1911 bottle of something called Sherwood Maryland Rye sold for $50. Using the inflation calculator that would translate into $682.42 today, which is not far off from some prices in the Bottle Blue Book. Even more so when you figure that the initial selling price in 1911 was something like $1.50, which would translate into a mere $35.78 today.

Makes me kind of rethink if it is in fact a bubble, and when it might burst.

[amg]

I would consider the auction of pre-prohibition bottles somewhat of an outlier. There's a difference between collectibles of strong historical significance and yet another LE whiskey that came out less than a year ago.

[Zeke]

Howdy!

I would consider the auction of pre-prohibition bottles somewhat of an outlier. There's a difference between collectibles of strong historical significance and yet another LE whiskey that came out less than a year ago.

I understand your point, but 1911 to 1943 is a gap of 32 years. Bottles from 1983 (32 years ago) are priced within a factor of 10 nowadays.

I don't think that "pre-prohibition" was such a big deal back in 1943. And, obviously, they hadn't invented Limited Edition bottling back then.

[amg]

I understand your point, but 1911 to 1943 is a gap of 32 years. Bottles from 1983 (32 years ago) are priced within a factor of 10 nowadays.

I don't think that "pre-prohibition" was such a big deal back in 1943.

Right, but much of the current "bubble" has a lot more to do with overall demand for current premium bourbons than it does for the market for dusties. There has always been a market for old things, and there always will be.

[Zeke]

Howdy!

Right, but much of the current "bubble" has a lot more to do with overall demand for current premium bourbons than it does for the market for dusties. There has always been a market for old things, and there always will be.

I see your point, but back in 1943 what was "premium bourbon"? Old stuff, good stuff, that you couldn't get anymore. To my eye, it was just back then that the marketing wasn't so over the top and obnoxious.

I'm not certain I agree with you about there being separate markets for dusties and limited editions. To my mind, there is supply, and then there is demand.

[squire]

Maybe somebody just wanted that bottle.