What will Bourbon World Look Like in 5 Years?

[Saul_cooperstein]

With the threads on whether if the boom has peaked as well as the Beam / Booker's new pricing and allocation thread I thought it would be interesting to ask a slightly different question: what will the bourbon world look like in 5 years? What will retail vs grey market look like? How will prices compare to now? Allocations? What will be harder to find and what will be easier based on higher quantities after production increases? Will there be any new craft distillers that have aged into high quality and well priced product? What will NDP world look like? Anything other products that may lose their age statements, be discontinued, re-launched, etc.  

 

I think will be fun to look back 5 years from now or along the way and see what actually came to pass. 

[garbanzobean]

1.) Bourbon will still be a QPR win.

2.) There will be a number of new mid to large sized distilleries releasing their first bourbons in the 4-6 year range.

3.) Prices on top end "normal" bourbons are going to be significantly higher than they are now.  Sorry to say it, but S-B has opened a Pandora's box with Booker's

4.) LEs will all still be extremely expensive or extremely hard to get ahold of.  Except for Wild Turkey.  Diamond Anniversary will finally be off the shelves.

5.) More craft distilleries will finally be getting their legs under them with 5-10 year old releases.  No idea on general quality.  Hopefully better than now.

6.) We will have seen the first round of craft distillery mass die-offs and/or consolidations as consumers in general realize craft whiskey is not at all the same as craft beer, and some distilleries just aren't ever going to release a properly made, well aged product.

7.) A lot of us will have accepted that there is a much larger stable consumer base for bourbon than there used to be.  Many of us will still be proclaiming another glut is coming "any day now."

8.) Harry will still be bunkering OGDBIB "just in case."

Edited December 21, 2016 by garbanzobean

[Harry in WashDC]

[ASIDE: Talk about La La Land . . ..  BTW, I was born in Coronado and am a 2nd GEN CN so take no offense - is a cheap, easy joke.]

 

My predictions:

-- the multinational majors will release more "finished" bourbons and even ryes at price points just below comparable price points for their own finished scotches but will have to contend with the "domestic" majors and the craft/micros (if the biggies don't buy the better smallies) that sell mid-shelf priced, "home-made" self-distilled and aged offerings (Hello, Dad's Hat - love that vermouth finish especially in Manhattans; Hillrock?  Sure. Balcones and Corsair? Keep up those experiments);

-- excellent bourbons and ryes will continue to be available at reasonable prices (including from some of those craft/micros), and those of us who are capable of ignoring the latest "shiny object" will know their names;

-- some new entrants and some old but missing names (like Chip) will be "found" by the cognoscenti;

-- age statements will continue to disappear but will reappear with smaller numbers once supplies match the demands of the large mass of consumers -- the "sweet spot" for bourbon is six to ten years  for most bourbons persons;

-- Straightbourbon.com will continue to be my anchorage when I feel the need to rest from sailing before the storm.

[Harry in WashDC]

50 minutes ago, garbanzobean said:

. . .

8.) Harry will still be bunkering OGDBIB "just in case."

LOL.  Eric, I was typing predictions as you were typing yours, but I was watching the Tony Bennett show so . . .

 

I am done picking up Booker's AND OGD114.  OGDBIB, now that you mention it, . . .

[Saul_cooperstein]

My thoughts. 

 

1) growth of the industry will track very closely with the way California red wine grew from 1992 forward. 

 

2) MSRP of a number of LEs will increase over time as demand continues with just a few remaining priced significantly below their secondary market prices (likely from large manufacturers like BT that use that pricing disparity to drive demand/supply dynamics and help move their other product.) We will also  start seeing a number of LEs price themselves at or past their MSRP and sit on shelves to the detriment of their brand and future pricing potential. I think michters 10 year or even 20 year may be an early victim of this phenomenon. 

 

3) Bourbon will become more international. As prices for LEs increase and are recognized, bourbon will be viewed internationally as a luxury product and manufacturers will use overseas demand in new markets as an escape valve for any excess product - thereby allowing them to keep the supply/demand In check domestically even as supply and prices increase. 

 

4) Much more great bourbon will be available but the market will have many more producers, products and brands thereby making it somewhat more challenging to find that great product. Digital resources such as SB as well as blogs, podcasts etc will provide an even more valuable resource for consumers to find what is good and avoid the bad. I also think that very few new bourbons will hit the quality / enjoyablity of dusties such as ND OGD BIB / 114, WT CGF/BD/Split, etc

 

5) At least one critic will gain a meaningful and leadership following and score a bourbon 100/100 creating a mass run and also brining even more attention to the industry. I expect the score to be given to some new LE or one-time only LE such as a new age statement michters with known providence of its origins, a barrel proof or single barrel PVW, a PHC delivering an ultra-aged Rye, or something along those lines. 

 

6) More barrel proof whiskey will be available. Not only will willet be fully cranking out its own distillate but other distilleries will add more barrel proof offerings to their line ups. 

[Clueby]

I'm cynical. I think it will look pretty much like it does today, just with significantly higher prices.

[BMartin42]

I think some of the younger "hipster" type crowd who are finding bourbon because it is the "in thing" will find they don't truly have a taste for it and move on to the next "must have". I'm guessing it will be rum or tequila. The rest who are finding bourbon and truly enjoy it will join us in our normal pursuits as the market stabilizes with supply finally catching up to demand with regards to standard offerings (for gosh sake I can't even find a bottle of Buffalo Trace right now). LE's will continue to increase in rarity and price as MSRP's go up with distilleries deciding they want more if that market share from the flippers.

The craft distilleries who did well with their vodka/gin/rum etc will finally have some aged bourbon that might actually be worth a darn. Those that didn't have a source of sustainable profit will have went the way of the dodo while they waited for something decent to bottle.

Beam will have paid the price for their indifference towards the bourbon regulars and HH and BT will eat into their market share. Maybe this one is just wishful thinking because I'm mad at the "Budweiser" of the bourbon world.

By the broken clock theory, WT and WR will both release a LE that everyone raves about and finds worth the cost.

Willet will still be an odd outlier. In five years their own distillate will just be coming of maturity but judging by history the will think it demands $100 a bottle.

At least one small/mid level producer will really hit their stride and a lot of us will love them (my money is on Bowman).

I'll still be trying to decide if I should crack the one Pappy 15 I have ever found or save it for daughters college graduation or maybe wedding or maybe 1st grandchild or maybe my retirement or maybe....you get the idea.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jvd99]

4 hours ago, Clueby said:

I'm cynical. I think it will look pretty much like it does today, just with significantly higher prices.

 

That sums it up for me.

 

 

[mbroo5880i]

I guess if global warming continues at its current pace the Angel's are going to steal a lot more of their share.  

[BottledInBond]

20 hours ago, garbanzobean said:

4.) LEs will all still be extremely expensive or extremely hard to get ahold of.  Except for Wild Turkey.  Diamond Anniversary will finally be off the shelves.

Best laugh I've had all day. In a world where seemingly everything sells regardless of price, the Diamond really stands its' ground doesn't it?

[garbanzobean]

2 hours ago, BottledInBond said:

Best laugh I've had all day. In a world where seemingly everything sells regardless of price, the Diamond really stands its' ground doesn't it?

I keep expecting to see Diamond and some of the WR series popping up in animal shelter ads: "Free to a good home"

 

Someday I'm going to cave on a 17 master's keep.  Someday.

Edited December 22, 2016 by garbanzobean

[BottledInBond]

53 minutes ago, garbanzobean said:

I keep expecting to see Diamond and some of the WR series popping up in animal shelter ads: "Free to a good home"

 

Someday I'm going to cave on a 17 master's keep.  Someday.

I have had the Master's Keep a few times. It is a nice whiskey that I enjoyed. But it is not an awesome whiskey that wowed me in any particular way. I want awesome whiskey for $150. Maybe that is becoming less realistic in today's world, but ECBP is awesome. A lot of Four Roses picks are awesome too. And those are less than half the price generally. 

 

 

[JT3NSB]

22 hours ago, Saul_cooperstein said:

 "a barrel proof or single barrel PVW"

im surprised this hasn't been promoted yet.  its coming.  has to be...

[flahute]

2 hours ago, JT3NSB said:

im surprised this hasn't been promoted yet.  its coming.  has to be...

Actually, this kind of thing was available in the days before the boom. There's a straightbourbon.com single barrel of PVW23 out there. (Might have been a 20, but I'm pretty sure it's a 23).

[Old Dusty]

7 hours ago, flahute said:

Actually, this kind of thing was available in the days before the boom. There's a straightbourbon.com single barrel of PVW23 out there. (Might have been a 20, but I'm pretty sure it's a 23).

There were also other single barrels like Randy Blank's "Van Blankle" and others bottled for restaurants. And the decanter set was at or close to cask strength. And don't forget the Everett's W12. It was one or two S-W barrels dumped into a private select Weller 12. 

[Saul_cooperstein]

Yes before boom there were private bottlings of VW including those mentioned. Thought process is that going forward sometime in next 5 years VW will release something that is far more limited and sought after vs their current offerings in order to further differentiate and separate themselves from the LE competition 

[Harry in WashDC]

On 12/21/2016 at 8:56 PM, garbanzobean said:

. . . Someday I'm going to cave on a 17 master's keep.  Someday.

I have one of those.  It'll take me five years to figure out why I bought it.

[musekatcher]

I predict Fireball Single Barrel, and Southern Comfort BIB for the hipsters., lol.  Seriously, I hope the distillers figure out how to supply the over-zealous market without self-inflicted wounds, restore age statements, maintain higher proof, and exercise restraint with pricing (I'm making a list, and checking it twice...).

Edited December 27, 2016 by musekatcher