Four Roses Doubling Capacity

[birdie]

Had the chance, and honor, to attend a small 4R tasting with Al Young, what a great guy. 

 

During the tasting he spoke about 4R doubling capacity over the next few years and I was wondering if that will decrease quality and increase the bottle count on the LE's every year.

 

Al's response was a definite "NO" to the first point, on the second point it was a meandering kind of answer that ended in neither Yes or No.

 

So what does everyone think.

[flahute]

Well..........

When Jim Rutledge took over operations and was given 6 months to improve things or see production move to another distillery, he made a bunch of changes. He removed the top 2 restrictor plates from the still and he lowered the fermentation temperatures which resulted in the process taking one day longer. These things among others things he did improved the flavor and resulted in the bourbon we all love today.

With the doubling of capacity (meaning a new still), I asked if they were replicating the changes that Jim had made to the original. My understanding is that they have not. There are other ways to get the same results so this might not be a game changer. That said, stills are unique so we can expect some differences. The bigger concern is that they are raising the fermentation temperatures to cut a day out of the process. This will change flavor. Will it be bad? We won't know until we taste it. It will be different however. 

[GaryT]

11 minutes ago, flahute said:

Well..........

When Jim Rutledge took over operations and was given 6 months to improve things or see production move to another distillery, he made a bunch of changes. He removed the top 2 restrictor plates from the still and he lowered the fermentation temperatures which resulted in the process taking one day longer. These things among others things he did improved the flavor and resulted in the bourbon we all love today.

With the doubling of capacity (meaning a new still), I asked if they were replicating the changes that Jim had made to the original. My understanding is that they have not. There are other ways to get the same results so this might not be a game changer. That said, stills are unique so we can expect some differences. The bigger concern is that they are raising the fermentation temperatures to cut a day out of the process. This will change flavor. Will it be bad? We won't know until we taste it. It will be different however. 

Are they raising the fermentation temperatures across the board?  Or just for what will be feeding the new still?  

 

To you point - maybe it won't be bad.  Not sure I understand the risk/reward equation there though.  Cutting a day adds more capacity to the existing setup - but what if they find out it changes the flavor too greatly from what consumers expect?  Having "more" of something that sees demand curtail isn't necessarily such a good thing.  

 

How long do you think before the impact will be understood?  Is this the type of thing that right off the still they'll see some difference, or maybe a nuance that takes some years?  Maybe Yellow Label won't hardly notice a change, but we'll just be robbed of some of the epic whiskey that's come out of there in the last few years.  

[Nomad]

Still temperature is a significant factor for flavor... any increase in temp usually has a direct result in ester count.

[flahute]

4 hours ago, GaryT said:

Are they raising the fermentation temperatures across the board?  Or just for what will be feeding the new still?  

 

To you point - maybe it won't be bad.  Not sure I understand the risk/reward equation there though.  Cutting a day adds more capacity to the existing setup - but what if they find out it changes the flavor too greatly from what consumers expect?  Having "more" of something that sees demand curtail isn't necessarily such a good thing.  

 

How long do you think before the impact will be understood?  Is this the type of thing that right off the still they'll see some difference, or maybe a nuance that takes some years?  Maybe Yellow Label won't hardly notice a change, but we'll just be robbed of some of the epic whiskey that's come out of there in the last few years.  

I believe across the board. In addition to the things I've been told specifically, there's a general change in all steps of the process in the name of efficiency. 

They increase capacity with one less day of fermentation as you note but it will change the flavor. They'll be able to note the difference right off the still. They should be able to predict what happens in the barrel to a degree but you never know until you know. I'm not sure what the youngest age is that goes into small batch but I imagine we might start to taste the difference in 5 years or so. 8 years for the single barrels.

[The Black Tot]

I have yet to see a shortening of fermentation periods resulting in the same or better quality spirit.

 

The only argument for a shortened f period is if you've switched to a more efficient yeast, but 4R's yeasts are famous and proprietary so they're not doing that. Maybe they're doing something else like adding more backset, who knows.

 

But that ain't gonna be the same bourbon.

 

I had a hunt around yesterday on the internet for news on mr Rutledge's distillery hopes. There seems to be nothing since the kickstarter debacle. Dammit this needs to happen!!!

[garbanzobean]

I'll reserve final judgement until I taste the end result, but I'm fairly confident that this is a big mistake.  Cutting an entire day off fermentation time + new still + running stills hotter is not so much "tweaking" the process as it is blowing up the old one.

 

Private Selections aside, I really enjoy regular FRSB the way it is now.  I may need to discuss splitting a barrel with a store.  

[GaryT]

Thinking along the risk/reward lines, while it "might not" turn out to be an epic pooch screw (although if I were a betting man - that's where my money would go), thinking that it might be time to start stocking up (I mean - worst case is you've got a lot of bottles of a known quality; even if you like the new stuff).

 

Thinking the next private selection I try and really like is going to be gobbled up.

[fishnbowljoe]

Four Roses announced a $55 million expansion back in 2015 according to a Lexington Herald Leader newspaper article. Of that, $34 million was for a new column still and fermenters in Lawrenceberg. The other $21 million was for new warehouses at Cox's Creek. 

 

To me, the biggest obstacle would be warehouse space. Since FR no longer contract distills for Bulleit, I imagine they're probably a little pressed for warehouse space even now. I have no idea if FR runs more than one shift, but in a way, it's kind of a moot point. If you have no place to store your distillate, it doesn't matter if you can distill around the clock.  Just sayin'.

 

Cheers! Joe

 

[The Black Tot]

There's a lot of space they (or someone else) could probably rent at Castle And Key. Even at C+K's optimized hopes for 60 barrels a day (with most of THAT contract distilled for other people than themselves) they're not filling a 55K + 30K warehouse capacity for another 4 years - just the amount of time it takes to mature the 4RYL and 4RSmB, from memory.

[The Black Tot]

4 hours ago, GaryT said:

Thinking along the risk/reward lines, while it "might not" turn out to be an epic pooch screw (although if I were a betting man - that's where my money would go), thinking that it might be time to start stocking up (I mean - worst case is you've got a lot of bottles of a known quality; even if you like the new stuff).

 

Thinking the next private selection I try and really like is going to be gobbled up.

I don' think we have to rush too hard. Jim left in fall of 2015. That means we have until fall 2023 to buy JR distilled 4R barrel picks even if we're buying them at the tender age of 8yrs.

 

A lot can happen in 6yrs, and a LOT of new whiskey comes online in that time - not least of which the massive Buffalo Trace surge, plus just about every new rack house built in the last 5 years, which is A LOT of whiskey.

 

There's no telling if the world will move onto the next big thing during that time period, or at least people might have enough 4R and other things bunkered that they're out of room.

 

The pressure might come off enough that 4R picks don't have to go out the door at 8yrs anymore. Maybe they'll get back to 11yrs+, in which case we're good until 2026.

 

Personally I'll accept a few months under 10yrs for a 4R pick, but I'm not happy/don't buy once it gets down closer to 9 or less. Not saying they can't taste good younger like that, but I don't like spending $70 for <10yrs of almost anything (maybe a Handy but this moral dilemma has not yet faced me).

 

The most important thing is that they get the new rackhouses up and get the new stuff to 4yrs old (it's already 2!), where they can make YL and SmB with it, such that they can leave the old single barrels alone.

 

If anything you want to lay off the SmB and YL for the next few years, because any production of those comes out of the JR stock! That or you should stock up on them now because after 2 more years they'll be BE stock. Depends on your perspective

 

 

[flahute]

5 hours ago, garbanzobean said:

I'll reserve final judgement until I taste the end result, but I'm fairly confident that this is a big mistake.  Cutting an entire day off fermentation time + new still + running stills hotter is not so much "tweaking" the process as it is blowing up the old one.

 

Private Selections aside, I really enjoy regular FRSB the way it is now.  I may need to discuss splitting a barrel with a store.  

Someone mentioned running the still hotter above. I don't know fi they thought I inferred that or of they know something that I don't, but I have not heard anything about that part of it.

1 hour ago, fishnbowljoe said:

Four Roses announced a $55 million expansion back in 2015 according to a Lexington Herald Leader newspaper article. Of that, $34 million was for a new column still and fermenters in Lawrenceberg. The other $21 million was for new warehouses at Cox's Creek. 

 

To me, the biggest obstacle would be warehouse space. Since FR no longer contract distills for Bulleit, I imagine they're probably a little pressed for warehouse space even now. I have no idea if FR runs more than one shift, but in a way, it's kind of a moot point. If you have no place to store your distillate, it doesn't matter if you can distill around the clock.  Just sayin'.

 

Cheers! Joe

 

4R warehouses had a lot of Bulleit barrels in them. As the Bulleit barrels move out, they gain that space.

[fishnbowljoe]

1 hour ago, flahute said:

Someone mentioned running the still hotter above. I don't know fi they thought I inferred that or of they know something that I don't, but I have not heard anything about that part of it.

4R warehouses had a lot of Bulleit barrels in them. As the Bulleit barrels move out, they gain that space.

So, Bulleit didn't age their juice in Louisville?

[flahute]

1 hour ago, fishnbowljoe said:

So, Bulleit didn't age their juice in Louisville?

They've done both.

At one point in the not far distant past, roughly 50% of 4R distilling capacity was contracted to Bulleit. That's a lot of barrels.

[Mako254]

14 hours ago, flahute said:

I believe across the board. In addition to the things I've been told specifically, there's a general change in all steps of the process in the name of efficiency. 

They increase capacity with one less day of fermentation as you note but it will change the flavor. They'll be able to note the difference right off the still. They should be able to predict what happens in the barrel to a degree but you never know until you know. I'm not sure what the youngest age is that goes into small batch but I imagine we might start to taste the difference in 5 years or so. 8 years for the single barrels.

 

So two more presidential elections to fully stock the bunker. Time to pick up more ICU OT. 

[Mako254]

3 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

I don' think we have to rush too hard. Jim left in fall of 2015. That means we have until fall 2023 to buy JR distilled 4R barrel picks even if we're buying them at the tender age of 8yrs.

 

A lot can happen in 6yrs, and a LOT of new whiskey comes online in that time - not least of which the massive Buffalo Trace surge, plus just about every new rack house built in the last 5 years, which is A LOT of whiskey.

 

There's no telling if the world will move onto the next big thing during that time period, or at least people might have enough 4R and other things bunkered that they're out of room.

 

The pressure might come off enough that 4R picks don't have to go out the door at 8yrs anymore. Maybe they'll get back to 11yrs+, in which case we're good until 2026.

 

Personally I'll accept a few months under 10yrs for a 4R pick, but I'm not happy/don't buy once it gets down closer to 9 or less. Not saying they can't taste good younger like that, but I don't like spending $70 for <10yrs of almost anything (maybe a Handy but this moral dilemma has not yet faced me).

 

The most important thing is that they get the new rackhouses up and get the new stuff to 4yrs old (it's already 2!), where they can make YL and SmB with it, such that they can leave the old single barrels alone.

 

If anything you want to lay off the SmB and YL for the next few years, because any production of those comes out of the JR stock! That or you should stock up on them now because after 2 more years they'll be BE stock. Depends on your perspective

 

 

As much as I enjoy all 4R juice, I'll buy 10 standard 100 proof single barrels before the small batch, and I like the small batch. The single barrel and private barrels are my favorite whiskey available to me. 

[Harry in WashDC]

7 minutes ago, Mako254 said:

 

So two more presidential elections to fully stock the bunker. Time to pick up more ICU OT. 

(I should live so long.)  I sure hope this news hits the great American Bourbon Public (GABP) soon and takes the pressure off what's coming out of the warehouses now.  I am not going to wait, even if I could, for beer made with accelerated fermentation being distilled so it comes out at a possibly higher proof before being aged four to eight or more years.  Those two changes, if actually made, do not encourage me to "wait and see" what the result is; the industry literature on such changes over the last 80 years says the result cannot be better than what we get now.  Yeah, I'm a curmudgeon.  My days of taking chances are over.  Except for that ET BIB - now, that I will buy just to see what it tastes like.  You never know . . .

[GaryT]

4 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

I don' think we have to rush too hard. Jim left in fall of 2015. That means we have until fall 2023 to buy JR distilled 4R barrel picks even if we're buying them at the tender age of 8yrs.

 

A lot can happen in 6yrs, and a LOT of new whiskey comes online in that time - not least of which the massive Buffalo Trace surge, plus just about every new rack house built in the last 5 years, which is A LOT of whiskey.

 

There's no telling if the world will move onto the next big thing during that time period, or at least people might have enough 4R and other things bunkered that they're out of room.

 

The pressure might come off enough that 4R picks don't have to go out the door at 8yrs anymore. Maybe they'll get back to 11yrs+, in which case we're good until 2026.

 

Personally I'll accept a few months under 10yrs for a 4R pick, but I'm not happy/don't buy once it gets down closer to 9 or less. Not saying they can't taste good younger like that, but I don't like spending $70 for <10yrs of almost anything (maybe a Handy but this moral dilemma has not yet faced me).

 

The most important thing is that they get the new rackhouses up and get the new stuff to 4yrs old (it's already 2!), where they can make YL and SmB with it, such that they can leave the old single barrels alone.

 

If anything you want to lay off the SmB and YL for the next few years, because any production of those comes out of the JR stock! That or you should stock up on them now because after 2 more years they'll be BE stock. Depends on your perspective

 

 

Some great points Paul.  And I'm with you on the age (although I am kicking myself a bit that this April I only bought 1 bottle in Nashville of a 9 yr, 5 mo 108.8 proof OBSV for $55 - forgetting about my travel cup in the car to sample immediately!)  I keep waiting for folks to move on to the next big thing too.  Because if we're going to have another glut - I'd rather it be of the good stuff  

[The Black Tot]

9 hours ago, GaryT said:

(I am kicking myself a bit that this April I only bought 1 bottle in Nashville of a 9 yr, 5 mo 108.8 proof OBSV for $55 - forgetting about my travel cup in the car to sample immediately!)

I did this once in KY with an 8yr SAOS Rye about 4yrs ago. It STILL bothers me!!!

[kaiserhog]

I for one, find taking a day out of the distillation process very disconcerting.  It will affect the smell and taste, not for the better I'm afraid. 

[The Black Tot]

2 hours ago, kaiserhog said:

I for one, find taking a day out of the distillation process very disconcerting.  It will affect the smell and taste, not for the better I'm afraid. 

Fermentation. Not distillation

[kaiserhog]

23 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

Fermentation. Not distillation

My point still stands.