The possibility of Bourbon as victim of tariff trade wars

[Postal Grunt]

Lew Bryson takes some time to express his viewpoint on the subject. After you've read all about it, relax and pour yourself a sip or two of Kentucky's finest.

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/are-we-headed-for-a-bourbon-trade-war?ref=scroll

[wadewood]

The second to last paragraph is all you need to read.  I'd love for the EU to hit Bourbon with a tariff.  "while a bourbon tariff would not be good for the industry, for the American drinker it might actually mean lower prices, or at least better supply, with less product going to foreign markets"

[BottledInBond]

Yeah the tariffs would be fine for US consumers, at least short term. The hit would be to the big producers that distribute internationally, at least initially. Longer term their cost of further distillery expansions will go up as well due to increased costs for all that stainless steel used in bottling lines, tanks, etc. Those increased costs could eventually lead to increased prices even domestically for them to maintain their current profit margins. The reality though is that the majors have all already done their big expansions so that impact will not be anytime soon. New craft places opening will have higher capital outlays to buy all their gear though so now their $hitty whiskey in cute packages will have to cost $70 instead of $80 while they try to learn how to make good whiskey. 

 

The reality is, this is a non issue for most of us from a bourbon perspective for the foreseeable future. 

[Whiskeythink.com]

The crafts that have been around awhile would be hit hard as they plan to expand. An example in my neck of the woods would be Few.

 

The big boys would see some drop in revenues, which could lead to more availability, but I doubt they would drop their prices. Not in todays bourbon craze climate. I would think they would raise US distribution, & slightly raise prices to keep up revenues. It would not make sense for them to raise distribution while taking less money for their bottles. They may increase LEs, & raise prices on those while marketing works the hype. 

Edited March 24, 2018 by Whiskeythink.com

[Richnimrod]

Of all the things among which I am able to choose to worry about (none of which I choose) this is the one that least moves my 'worry needle'.

[GaryT]

Also not making my worry radar.  I hope it doesn't happen if only so that our foreign members aren't forced to pay more.  Although a potential upside - maybe steering folks to rum and a busting of the bourbon bubble?  My guess - this will all be a big nothing burger.