The Black Tot Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 (edited) Seizing the opportunity for almost any distraction from being offshore today, I am pleased to announce that it is that time of the year when the Distilled Spirits Council releases their data on spirits sales for the previous year, with data up to September. Let's start with our raison d'etre, US whiskey: Another predictable banner year, with the addition of nearly 2 million more cases of US non-rye whiskey sales, as demand continues unabated while supply of certainly the youngest whiskeys are starting to benefit from the production increase decisions of 4-5yrs ago. The sound of saws and hammers in rack house country is not likely to give way to the sleepy silence of maturation just yet. US rye continues on a similar trajectory... Amazing to think that while US rye is still outsold by other US whiskey by 20 to 1, it has also more than tripled in volume since 2013, and seems to be showing no sign of letting up. One thing that appeared evident in this years numbers was the effect of tariffs on consumption and availability. Whisky volumes from the UK were down 10.3 percent for the first 9 months year over year 2019 vs 2020 presumably because of the bourbon-scotch tariff war. Appleton seemed not to do very well either with a 30% drop in rum supply (Appleton may not be the only Jamaican distillery but it is by far the largest exporter) Russian vodka took a big hit, possibly because of the rise in craft vodkas by domestic producers trying to flood the market with gin and vodka while they wait for their early batch whiskies, however, gin imports were still up 8.2 percent (gin is not subject to tariffs) from the UK. The UK is also of course awash in new boutique gins by startup distilleries. A 19% increase in Tequila tells me I won't have to look too hard to get a decent margarita in the US for the foreseeable future. A 190% increase in the import of bitters - looks like covid was not able to kill cocktail culture - indeed it may have moved it into the home bar. MarekV8 did his part, but could not prevent the slide in the Slivovitz numbers this year. Exports told a similar story Bourbon took a 3.7% hit in exports, likely due to tariffs, but it looks like Jack Daniel's got it harder, which probably makes up the other 23% reduction. The single malt scotch picture reflected the import situation with a hit in the numbers this year, but the graph on this one was weird. Although the pdf for the category showed both Scottish blended whisky as well as single malt, the graph showed only single malt movement. Indeed several of the charts this year showed something of an amateurish inconsistency to the graphing strategies. Either way, most of us here are concerned wtih single malt data (begging your pardon, Compass Box), so here it is: Irish whiskey showed signs of leveling off this year. Possibly due to tariffs (not sure if Irish is in the penalized category), but also possibly due to supply limitations. Cocktailing may be on fire with bitters purchases, but you'd never know it from the liqueurs and cordial volumes: South of the border, Jalisco was again on fire this year, adding 2 million cases right along with bourbon, a higher year-on-year growth than bourbon, in fact. Here is another example of one graph only stacking the revenue and volume bars, for no apparent reason and making the data for either harder to read. Brandy and Cognac seems to be coming steadily into fashion in the US thanks in part surely to the good work of Armagnac promotion and adoption. Rum seems now to be pulling itself out of a multi year slump in 2020, possibly due to the premiumization efforts by Foursquare and the penetration into the US market by Velier (low volumes, but a very influential force for encouraging the rum culture broadly, if Europe's Velier story is any indication, and it is...). Canadian whisky is rising in case volume, but at a much slower pace than its US competition. And finally, Vodka - the true barometer of how much we just increasingly would like to knock one back and raise our middle olive spear to the pandemic and just everything, really. Drinking doesn't appear to be going out of style, gents and ladies. All in all, a very good year for alcohol producers, and a good sign of incentive for producers to keep making us more of the stuff. Edited February 5, 2021 by The Black Tot 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Hippie Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Great Information - thanks for sharing. A breakdown for 2020 for On-premise versus retail would be very interesting. I Think much of the growth from 2020 was due to people going out less. You go out and and have 2 drinks that often cost close to what a bottle would cost. You drink at home and you probably drink more. (you don't need a designated driver to get you to the john). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 THX. RE: the bitters boom suggesting an increase in home cocktail-making while the decrease in US Cordial sales being flat to slightly down over the last few years suggests otherwise -- We have indeed been expanding our in-home cocktail experimentation as well as our consumption of spirits other than bourbon, rye, basic rum, and basic tequila both in cocktails and neat. Aged rums, rhum agricoles, various tequilas, and brandies/cognacs/armagnacs now appear regularly in cocktails, and the latter sometimes get sipped by themselves depending on what we are eating. Similarly, as our ancient de Kuyper-type "liqueurs" were used up in cocktails, we replaced them with real fruit brandies and such and better quality liqueurs. A recent restocking run included an attempt to get a replacement Bitter Truth Travel Pack (imported from Germany) at the purveyor who always carries them. It had been sold out for weeks and was awaiting a special order. I love those little bottles - five of them in their tin take up about the same space as two Fee Brothers and, to me, taste better. Per capita consumption of all sorts of "drugs" was up due to Covid (boredom/depresssion, curtailment of going out, etc.) according to a US Census survey done in, I think, October (or at least that's when I was contacted). As OH just wrote, drinking to excess at a bar is expensive per drink while drinking at home is EASY as well as cheaper. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flahute Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Great post and info TBT - thanks for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan1311 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 23 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said: THX. RE: the bitters boom suggesting an increase in home cocktail-making while the decrease . A recent restocking run included an attempt to get a replacement Bitter Truth Travel Pack (imported from Germany) at the purveyor who always carries them. It had been sold out for weeks and was awaiting a special order. I love those little bottles - five of them in their tin take up about the same space as two Fee Brothers and, to me, taste The Bitter Truth Travel Pack is available on Amazon, for $19.99. Is that a decent price? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry in WashDC Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Skinsfan1311 said: The Bitter Truth Travel Pack is available on Amazon, for $19.99. Is that a decent price? I think it is. I've seen it for over $30 in one store here. The Travel Pack has five 20 ml (0.7 oz.) bottles, each with a different flavor. Five 5 oz. bottles of a comparable brand's same flavors (i.e., non-bottom shelf) would run about $35 and take up a lot of shelf space for a LONG time. Bitter Truth also makes a "Bar Pack" with five other flavors. The tins stack nicely lid-to-lid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan1311 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, Harry in WashDC said: I think it is. I've seen it for over $30 in one store here. The Travel Pack has five 20 ml (0.7 oz.) bottles, each with a different flavor. Five 5 oz. bottles of a comparable brand's same flavors (i.e., non-bottom shelf) would run about $35 and take up a lot of shelf space for a LONG time. Bitter Truth also makes a "Bar Pack" with five other flavors. The tins stack nicely lid-to-lid. That "shelf space" factor is huge. We have so many bottles of bitters, and they do take up shelf space. My favorite size are the, the 2 oz dropper bottles, that they sell in the some of the distillery gift shops. I bought some Chili Chocolate & Coffee Pecan bitters at Willett, for $10.00 each, and a bottle of Sassafras & Sorghum bitters at Woodford Reserve, for $12.00. They're really good and the those little bottles take up a lot less valuable real-estate, than those larger bottles. Hell...I've had the same bottle of Angostura bitters for at least 10 years, and a bottle of Peychaud, for at least 5..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStikboy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Thanks for posting this. Great information and I'm enjoying looking over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThirstyinOhio Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I always enjoy the DISCUS post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinjoe Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’m not sure what to think of the American Whiskey numbers, in light of the pandemic conditions present for 75% of the year. Really, this would pertain to all categories, but I’ll keep this to AW for these purposes. Going into the pandemic in March, I would not have been surprised to see numbers tank. Obviously, this didn’t happen. Surely, on-premise sales took a huge hit, and the data might suggest that the hit was countered by retail level sales. But, the logistics, planning, re-allocations, pricing programs, etc, between producers, distributors, and retailers/on premise of this must be extremely convoluted and irregular. I would guess these “in battle” adjustments might have an impact on 2021 numbers. Just don’t ask me how. I don’t fucking have a clue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Black Tot Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 All true about the pandemic market instabilities. But pretty much everyone I know who drinks, drank more during the pandemic. Shifting the drinking to home from on-premise means the cases still moved, the drinks were just cheaper. 2021's numbers will indeed be interesting, but I have the feeling that "Dry January" wasn't as big a thing as last year. Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of Dry January - anything that keeps the competition out of the stores is OK with me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lcpfratn Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 On 2/10/2021 at 10:58 PM, The Black Tot said: All true about the pandemic market instabilities. But pretty much everyone I know who drinks, drank more during the pandemic. Shifting the drinking to home from on-premise means the cases still moved, the drinks were just cheaper. 2021's numbers will indeed be interesting, but I have the feeling that "Dry January" wasn't as big a thing as last year. Don't get me wrong - I'm all in favor of Dry January - anything that keeps the competition out of the stores is OK with me! I’d even go so far as to say “Dry January” was non-existent this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajuin Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 All whiskey lines increased in past 10 years by 2x. --except Canadians. Great drop in US exports likely due to pandemic and demand at home. Tequilas rise surprised me. If like stocks then Jamaican Rum should be very cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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