Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[flahute]

50 minutes ago, markandrex said:

That variance may be due to Anwalt’s travel.

[Davesnothere]

Well, I've been seeing more and more allocated bottles on the shelf, not behind the glass.  I saw these today in Nashville out on the shelf. Now, the price needs to come down to at least close to msrp.

 

[Kepler]

5 hours ago, Davesnothere said:

Well, I've been seeing more and more allocated bottles on the shelf, not behind the glass.  I saw these today in Nashville out on the shelf. Now, the price needs to come down to at least close to msrp.

 

 

This is progress.

 

[Bourserker]

To me one of the ultimate indicators things have changed is when all this "allocated" stuff is sitting on shelves in control states.  I feel like control states are behind everyone else in regards to the general customer base still thinking they need to hoard this stuff.  So once there is enough product available to resolve that mentality then we will have arrived. 

[chasking]

I’ve never really chased limited releases or unicorns, so my experience of the boom consisted largely of regular release products that used to be available everywhere at reasonable prices disappearing.  I have been waiting years for supply to catch up to the point where I could walk into Binny’s and be able to usually find a bottle of WSR or ETL at a reasonable retail price (i.e., inflation-adjusted from where it was 20 or so years ago—maybe up a little, because I think those brands were underappeciated then, but you know what I mean).

 

Obviously we are not there yet.  I wonder about BT.  My understanding is that Sazerac’s distillery is a big one and has been operating at capacity for a long time.  Where is all that whiskey going? Has all that huge capacity for a decade-plus disappeared into bunkers and basements on the day it hits the shelves?  Surely it hasn’t all gone into Fireball, although maybe I’m underestimating that. But all I know is, WSR used to be a 7yo, and it’s been a lot longer than seven years since the market reached a point where they were selling every bottle of it they put out more or less instantly, and IIRC they dropped the age statement. In those circumstances it seems to me that they would be stupid not to vastly increase production of their wheated bourbon, and I don’t think they are stupid, so where is all that whiskey? Even regular BT still seems fairly thin on the ground, nor does it appear that all that capacity has gone to the Age brands.

 

Hell, maybe it is all going into Fireball.  I wonder how sales of that product are doing.

[fishnbowljoe]

1 hour ago, chasking said:

I’ve never really chased limited releases or unicorns, so my experience of the boom consisted largely of regular release products that used to be available everywhere at reasonable prices disappearing.  I have been waiting years for supply to catch up to the point where I could walk into Binny’s and be able to usually find a bottle of WSR or ETL at a reasonable retail price (i.e., inflation-adjusted from where it was 20 or so years ago—maybe up a little, because I think those brands were underappeciated then, but you know what I mean).

 

Obviously we are not there yet.  I wonder about BT.  My understanding is that Sazerac’s distillery is a big one and has been operating at capacity for a long time.  Where is all that whiskey going? Has all that huge capacity for a decade-plus disappeared into bunkers and basements on the day it hits the shelves?  Surely it hasn’t all gone into Fireball, although maybe I’m underestimating that. But all I know is, WSR used to be a 7yo, and it’s been a lot longer than seven years since the market reached a point where they were selling every bottle of it they put out more or less instantly, and IIRC they dropped the age statement. In those circumstances it seems to me that they would be stupid not to vastly increase production of their wheated bourbon, and I don’t think they are stupid, so where is all that whiskey? Even regular BT still seems fairly thin on the ground, nor does it appear that all that capacity has gone to the Age brands.

 

Hell, maybe it is all going into Fireball.  I wonder how sales of that product are doing.

Yes, supply is catching up to demand. Straight from the horses mouth at BT. 

The main problem as I see it, is that a number of people made a few bucks during the boom. They don’t want to see their cash cow disappear. They keep perpetuating the myth and keep buyng all they can and sell it on the secondary market, or put it on their shelf as a trophy. At my local Binny’s “scouts” come in to see what's new on the shelf or in the locked cases. If anyting is found, they get on their phones and call in the troops. The staff and management have grown wise to their tactics. Another small grocery chain store here had a liquor department that was pretty decent. A new manager came in, and kept pushing the liquor manager to keep raising prises. The liquor manager left and worked for a beer distributor for a while. He now works in the beer department at Binny’s. There was another fairly decent store a short drive from me. The owner sold the store. Same thing as above. The owner kept pushing the manager to raise  prices. He left and is now a sales rep for a liquor distributor. Long ago there were a number of stores in my area that used to be decent. They’re all mostly tater stores now. Pretty sad. 

[smokinjoe]

I’m think that Fireball is Canadian whiskey based.  But, my memory can be fuzzy, at times!

But, your points are sound Chas, nevertheless.  
It strikes me odd, that BT’s flagship brand (Buffalo Trace KSBW) though “findable with effort or luck”, isn’t on every shelf in America.  

Edited March 22 by smokinjoe
I knew SKBW didn’t look right…😊

[PaulO]

14 hours ago, chasking said:

I’ve never really chased limited releases or unicorns, so my experience of the boom consisted largely of regular release products that used to be available everywhere at reasonable prices disappearing.  I have been waiting years for supply to catch up to the point where I could walk into Binny’s and be able to usually find a bottle of WSR or ETL at a reasonable retail price (i.e., inflation-adjusted from where it was 20 or so years ago—maybe up a little, because I think those brands were underappeciated then, but you know what I mean).

 

Obviously we are not there yet.  I wonder about BT.  My understanding is that Sazerac’s distillery is a big one and has been operating at capacity for a long time.  Where is all that whiskey going? Has all that huge capacity for a decade-plus disappeared into bunkers and basements on the day it hits the shelves?  Surely it hasn’t all gone into Fireball, although maybe I’m underestimating that. But all I know is, WSR used to be a 7yo, and it’s been a lot longer than seven years since the market reached a point where they were selling every bottle of it they put out more or less instantly, and IIRC they dropped the age statement. In those circumstances it seems to me that they would be stupid not to vastly increase production of their wheated bourbon, and I don’t think they are stupid, so where is all that whiskey? Even regular BT still seems fairly thin on the ground, nor does it appear that all that capacity has gone to the Age brands.

 

Hell, maybe it is all going into Fireball.  I wonder how sales of that product are doing.

My understanding is most of the whiskey making in Frankfort is BT mash bill #1.  Mash bill #2 and Weller a much smaller portion.

[Kepler]

I agree with Joe, I'm fairly certain that I've heard multiple times that bourbon is not used in Fireball.  It's not competing with bourbon production at BT Frankfort distillery.  The question remains, ... "Where is all that BT bourbon?"

[MSB]

I too have noticed "allocated" btls sitting on the shelf. HM 10yr bib is one I see at most stores sitting there with a price of 53-69$. EC BP store picks or distillery btls sit on the shelf unlike a yr ago. A party store I frequent rec'd a case of OF 1924 2025 version ( very unusual for this store to rec so much OF 1924) In a week's time they still have most of it left on the shelf at 129$/btl. Not a great deal but less than 10% over MSRP. They also sell the new 4R sib for less than 44$. Not great but Sam's sells the original 4R sib for 38-39$.  Every where else 4R sib sells for 47-58$. Easy pass for me. I hope this trend continues for all of us.

[Jazz June]

For Weller in particular, I remember reading that BT only ran the wheated recipe a few weeks a year (in the past anyway, not sure what they do now). And Weller probably grew even more than the BT #1 brands by percentage. Availability of the Buffalo Trace product is increasing here in VA and MD, although it is still not a constant on the shelf as it should be. I think we are still a ways from WSR being a consistent shelfer (which it also should be ). The day WSR and OWA carry a 7 year age statement again will be a happy day.

[Richnimrod]

4 hours ago, Jazz June said:

For Weller in particular, I remember reading that BT only ran the wheated recipe a few weeks a year (in the past anyway, not sure what they do now). And Weller probably grew even more than the BT #1 brands by percentage. Availability of the Buffalo Trace product is increasing here in VA and MD, although it is still not a constant on the shelf as it should be. I think we are still a ways from WSR being a consistent shelfer (which it also should be ). The day WSR and OWA carry a 7 year age statement again will be a happy day.

AGREE!   But..... I ain't holdin' my breath.

[kcgumbohead]

On 3/22/2025 at 8:41 AM, Jazz June said:

For Weller in particular, I remember reading that BT only ran the wheated recipe a few weeks a year (in the past anyway, not sure what they do now). And Weller probably grew even more than the BT #1 brands by percentage. Availability of the Buffalo Trace product is increasing here in VA and MD, although it is still not a constant on the shelf as it should be. I think we are still a ways from WSR being a consistent shelfer (which it also should be ). The day WSR and OWA carry a 7 year age statement again will be a happy day.

If they didn't up production of the wheater mash bill post2012/13...that was a HUGE mistake. I am not a wheater fan, but for my friends that are, I am sick to death of the availability issues with their favorite whiskey style.

[Swamp55]

Like many SB members, I have enjoyed following this thread for a number of years.  I just noticed that the thread's 10-year anniversary was this past weekend, with the initial post on March 23, 2015.  It's interesting that the question of interest -- whether the boom has peaked -- is still relevant all these years later.  It makes me wonder whether this thread will still be active in yet another 10 years!

[Kepler]

4 hours ago, Swamp55 said:

Like many SB members, I have enjoyed following this thread for a number of years.  I just noticed that the thread's 10-year anniversary was this past weekend, with the initial post on March 23, 2015.  It's interesting that the question of interest -- whether the boom has peaked -- is still relevant all these years later.  It makes me wonder whether this thread will still be active in yet another 10 years!

 

Great observation and great post!

[steven s]

I am starting to see more stuff on the shelf here in SW CO, and as far as BT goes, there's WSR out and about, more eagle rare than usual, and then these at $96 just sitting out with no limit.

[jvd99]

On 3/26/2025 at 2:44 PM, Swamp55 said:

Like many SB members, I have enjoyed following this thread for a number of years.  I just noticed that the thread's 10-year anniversary was this past weekend, with the initial post on March 23, 2015.  It's interesting that the question of interest -- whether the boom has peaked -- is still relevant all these years later.  It makes me wonder whether this thread will still be active in yet another 10 years!

Unbelievable this has been a topic for 10 years and not much has changed. In

my area, it’s still a Weller desert, unless you fancy taters  

[Cibsie]

15 hours ago, steven s said:

I am starting to see more stuff on the shelf here in SW CO, and as far as BT goes, there's WSR out and about, more eagle rare than usual, and then these at $96 just sitting out with no limit.

 

Wow!  I wonder if that means the secondary market is finally crashing.  Around here, one person would buy all 7-8 cases and sell them in local FB groups.

[fishnbowljoe]

4 hours ago, Cibsie said:

 

Wow!  I wonder if that means the secondary market is finally crashing.  Around here, one person would buy all 7-8 cases and sell them in local FB groups.

That used to happen here too. Then store owners got wise and most raised their prices to cut out the middle man. 

[flahute]

On 3/26/2025 at 12:44 PM, Swamp55 said:

Like many SB members, I have enjoyed following this thread for a number of years.  I just noticed that the thread's 10-year anniversary was this past weekend, with the initial post on March 23, 2015.  It's interesting that the question of interest -- whether the boom has peaked -- is still relevant all these years later.  It makes me wonder whether this thread will still be active in yet another 10 years!

In 10 years we may be discussing if the glut has reached the bottom yet.

[smokinjoe]

It’s important to remember, that the rebound of American whiskey, and the boom it experienced over decades, has happened.  While, supply certainly appears to have caught up with the tremendous increase in demand, it does not take away from the reality of what has happened over the last…40 years.  Perhaps, a correction is upon us, and the distilleries have a tight rope to walk to manage it.  But, it can be managed, and those that do, will come out the other side in a good position.  To point, the market and demand are still at high levels.  The winners will fight hard to successfully keep, and even grow, their share of that.  The gloves will/must come off in this battle.  

[kcgumbohead]

On 3/30/2025 at 8:20 PM, smokinjoe said:

It’s important to remember, that the rebound of American whiskey, and the boom it experienced over decades, has happened.  While, supply certainly appears to have caught up with the tremendous increase in demand, it does not take away from the reality of what has happened over the last…40 years.  Perhaps, a correction is upon us, and the distilleries have a tight rope to walk to manage it.  But, it can be managed, and those that do, will come out the other side in a good position.  To point, the market and demand are still at high levels.  The winners will fight hard to successfully keep, and even grow, their share of that.  The gloves will/must come off in this battle.  

Here's to those un-gloved fists punching out some lower prices and a restoration of age statements.

[Richnimrod]

59 minutes ago, kcgumbohead said:

Here's to those un-gloved fists punching out some lower prices and a restoration of age statements.

From your lips (typing finger?) to God's ears, K!   ...But, I hope you'll forgive me if Don't hold my breath awaiting such.

[smokinjoe]

1 hour ago, Richnimrod said:

From your lips (typing finger?) to God's ears, K!   ...But, I hope you'll forgive me if Don't hold my breath awaiting such.

A new OGD 7 yr was just announced here, today…

[Mattk]

I still don't have any Buffalo Trace products on my shelf except for baby saz.