Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Anwalt]

On 10/11/2024 at 4:49 AM, GaryT said:

(I picked up some Stellum Black which I really like but thought it was overpriced at $90+; but at $60 I'm a buyer)

Heck yeah. I like their higher proof ryes, I see them on Unicorn at good prices.

[LW25]

I'm actually seeing regular Buffalo Trace make it onto shelves again.  For a couple years now it's been a back room only type bottle, and owners would sell it with a caveat "Don't post this on social media, I don't want to get flooded".  It's usually listed with "Limit 1" but it's actually on shelves again near me.  

[flahute]

In one of the facebook groups I'm in to keep an eye on pricing and the market in general, there is suddenly a lot of selling activity. It's as if the memo has gone out and everyone is trying to take profits before the values drop.

[Richnimrod]

17 minutes ago, flahute said:

In one of the facebook groups I'm in to keep an eye on pricing and the market in general, there is suddenly a lot of selling activity. It's as if the memo has gone out and everyone is trying to take profits before the values drop.

Well, we can hope so, anyway.  ...Or at least I hope so.

[mbroo5880i]

2 minutes ago, Richnimrod said:

Well, we can hope so, anyway.  ...Or at least I hope so.

 

I have told this story before.  I remember the days of seeing PVW on the shelf for $49.99 and $69.99.  The labels had some old dude on them smoking a cigar.  I thought to myself why would anyone pay that much for bourbon?  Of course, I was buying WL12 and OWA around $20.  I recall seeing early PHC, FR SiB LE, Willett WFE, etc. on the shelf.  Even later, I remember a local carried both spring and fall versions (based on label color) of all 10 FR recipes for less than $50 and occasionally you could grab them for $44.99.

 

The last time I saw WL12 on the shelf was when you could buy it by the case.  I remember thinking "I really like this stuff and it is getting harder to find. But, a case would be $300.  You don't know what you don't know.

 

Knowing what I know now, I would have cleared the shelves. 

[markandrex]

From a local TV station on a speculated consequence of the recent elections.

https://www.wbko.com/2024/11/14/kentucky-distillers-express-concerns-about-possible-tariffs/

 

 

[PaulO]

10 hours ago, markandrex said:

From a local TV station on a speculated consequence of the recent elections.

https://www.wbko.com/2024/11/14/kentucky-distillers-express-concerns-about-possible-tariffs/

 

 

The other countries would likely retaliate in kind with their own tariffs.  If that happens, less of our product would go abroad due to decrease in demand.

 

[markandrex]

2 minutes ago, PaulO said:

The other countries would likely retaliate in kind with their own tariffs.  If that happens, less of our product would go abroad due to decrease in demand.

 

Exactly!  With increases in production/aging, the glut may be here very soon.

[GeeTen]

Oh boy - more Blanton's Gold & SFTB (130pf+) in 750ml bottles on our local shelves with tariffs on foreign stuff in place!  Win, win . . . . 

 

[Davesnothere]

We've made a concerted effort to open more and buy less this year. However, the few times we stopped by our (semi) regular haunts We've been seeing formally allocated and lottery bottles on the shelf, not behind the counter.

For example just today  multiple KC 12 and KC 18 sitting next to KC 9. Blanton's and Blanton's gold on the regular end cap. Weller full proof within easy reach of the  hoi polloi.  Joseph Magnus cigar blend has also been showing up on the shelves. 

And Buffalo Trace flowing like the salmon of Capistrano. 

 

Does this mean we're on the downward slope from peak bourbon? I don't know, I just want the Eagles to win the Super Bowl!

Edited November 17 by Davesnothere

[mbroo5880i]

1 hour ago, Davesnothere said:

We've made a concerted effort to open more and buy less this year. However, the few times we stopped by our (semi) regular haunts We've been seeing formally allocated and lottery bottles on the shelf, not behind the counter.

For example just today  multiple KC 12 and KC 18 sitting next to KC 9. Blanton's and Blanton's gold on the regular end cap. Weller full proof within easy reach of the  hoi polloi.  Joseph Magnus cigar blend has also been showing up on the shelves. 

And Buffalo Trace flowing like the salmon of Capistrano. 

 

Does this mean we're on the downward slope from peak bourbon? I don't know, I just want the Eagles to win the Super Bowl!

 

We are seeing more Heaven Hill and Beam higher mid shelf products on the shelves in Indy.  BT is hit or miss but we rarely see anything Weller or Blantons unless in a lottery.  ER rarely hits the shelves but is available behind the counter if you ask.  I stopped asking a long time ago because it has dropped off in quality over time.  I remember store picks of ER that would stop a clock.  KC12 and KC18 regularly sit on the shelfs.  Both are overpriced for the Indy market.  KC12 at $55 is a great buy but at $65 not so much when one of the locals carries KC9 at $19.99.  

 

The Eagles miss Reddick but Barkley has eased the pain.

[Anwalt]

Tons of BT at $25 in PR Costco. The end is nigh. 

[0895]

On 11/16/2024 at 7:31 PM, mbroo5880i said:

ER rarely hits the shelves but is available behind the counter if you ask.  I stopped asking a long time ago because it has dropped off in quality over time.  I remember store picks of ER that would stop a clock. 

I’ve noticed the same thing in the past year or so.

A few years ago I had regular shelf bottles that are some of the best ER I’ve ever had.  Now I hesitate to buy it anymore.

Conversely, BT picks seem to have gotten much better .

[ebo]

23 hours ago, 0895 said:

I’ve noticed the same thing in the past year or so.

A few years ago I had regular shelf bottles that are some of the best ER I’ve ever had.  Now I hesitate to buy it anymore.

Conversely, BT picks seem to have gotten much better .

FR Single barrel used to be a staple/favorite of mine. It is not the same juice it was when JR was master distiller.

[kcgumbohead]

Kentucky Owl/ Stoli USA has filed chapter 11, an indication of things to come??

[mal00768]

10 hours ago, kcgumbohead said:

Kentucky Owl/ Stoli USA has filed chapter 11, an indication of things to come??

Wtf even is their business model? 

[Bourserker]

Since the VA ABC stores ended the official allocated drops and started just putting them on the shelf at random I have seen some stuff on the shelves I haven't seen here in years: ECBP, Henry McKenna 10 year, Joseph Magnus Cigar Blend and some other stuff.  Still no BT products other then the Benchmark line though.  Occasionally you'll see a BT, but they get cleared out pretty quick.

 

I also watch an auction site and the prices on a lot of bottles have steadily dropped throughout the year.

[PaulO]

On 12/1/2024 at 9:23 AM, kcgumbohead said:

Kentucky Owl/ Stoli USA has filed chapter 11, an indication of things to come??

For several years, I have been seeing the different varieties of KY Owl just out there sitting on the shelf at the grocery store.  This includes bottles marked at over $100.  It's always there.  My guess is no one cares or wants to buy it.  I surely fall into that category.

I remember when the brand was fairly new, they announced plans to transition to making their own.  (Have we heard that one before.)  The distilling operation was to be built inside several wooden pyramids.  I thought it was a prank the first time I read about the pyramids.

 

Meanwhile, the Crown Royal is still safely locked in the glass case.

[PaulO]

16 hours ago, mal00768 said:

Wtf even is their business model? 

Sell sourced whiskey in a fancy package, at a huge mark up.  It's worth a lot because we say so.  

[Richnimrod]

Just now, PaulO said:

Sell sourced whiskey in a fancy package, at a huge mark up.  It's worth a lot because we say so.  

And, in case your not too sure what its collectible or resale value is (taters) . . . Welllll!  Look how expensive it is!!!!!

[flahute]

On 12/2/2024 at 9:10 AM, PaulO said:

For several years, I have been seeing the different varieties of KY Owl just out there sitting on the shelf at the grocery store.  This includes bottles marked at over $100.  It's always there.  My guess is no one cares or wants to buy it.  I surely fall into that category.

I remember when the brand was fairly new, they announced plans to transition to making their own.  (Have we heard that one before.)  The distilling operation was to be built inside several wooden pyramids.  I thought it was a prank the first time I read about the pyramids.

 

Meanwhile, the Crown Royal is still safely locked in the glass case.

That distillery was designed by a very good architect from Japan but I thought it was completely inappropriate for Kentucky.