Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[0895]

1 hour ago, Mattk said:

I still don't have any Buffalo Trace products on my shelf except for baby saz.

To be fair, you should probably check outside of the rye aisle.

[Richnimrod]

Chuck Cowdery's blog has a pretty nice article about the current situation in America's whiskey businesses.   It addresses the 'new' OGD 7-year-old but goes on from there in general terms.   Worth a look, IMO.

[Anwalt]

On 3/14/2025 at 11:41 AM, markandrex said:

That variance may be due to Anwalt’s travel.

 

Busted! 

[Anwalt]

On 3/13/2025 at 12:12 PM, Kepler said:

It's ridiculous to suggest that tariffs have anything to do with this.  This is simply a classic boom-and-bust situation. The bubble inevitably bursts.  Everyone knew this day would come.  This thread was created in 2015 (which was during the Obama administration).

 

If tariffs on American whiskey in Europe = drop in sales....well, drop in demand usually = drop in price, all things being equal. All things are not equal, supply is also increasing. That usually means further drops in prices.

[RWBadley]

33 minutes ago, Anwalt said:

 

If tariffs on American whiskey in Europe = drop in sales....well, drop in demand usually = drop in price, all things being equal. All things are not equal, supply is also increasing. That usually means further drops in prices.

 

Yes to both of these above ^

 

But we also see the boycotting of our Whiskey (and other US made goods) based on the bad blood created.

 

My own business has lost ALL Canadian sales.  Trust and friendship in business built up over twenty years -gone- With a 'sorry, but we can't endorse your guy anymore'...

 

Tariffs may not matter (as much as) if Canada and the EU folks say no/non/nada to our products.

 

When Canada and EU importers can't make a sale to a boycotting/ non buying public, Imports from US will stop. Meaning  US exports will stop.

 

I don't see any of this as helping business, and that's just the tip of a very complicated iceberg

 

 

[ebo]

2 hours ago, RWBadley said:

 

Yes to both of these above ^

 

But we also see the boycotting of our Whiskey (and other US made goods) based on the bad blood created.

 

My own business has lost ALL Canadian sales.  Trust and friendship in business built up over twenty years -gone- With a 'sorry, but we can't endorse your guy anymore'...

 

Tariffs may not matter (as much as) if Canada and the EU folks say no/non/nada to our products.

 

When Canada and EU importers can't make a sale to a boycotting/ non buying public, Imports from US will stop. Meaning  US exports will stop.

 

I don't see any of this as helping business, and that's just the tip of a very complicated iceberg

 

 

Things will find their ground. I don't think the tarriffs will mean long term pain. Eventually, we will all capitulate and things will settle down to a new norm. Just my .02, of course. I'll leave it there because anything else belongs in the political forum. 

[lemonman]

Was in a nearby store today and it appears Beam Suntory might be trying to unload some stuff. They had these excellent prices (for around here), and a fair amount of most of it:

 

MMCS $27.99 

MM46CS $49.99

Baker's $49.99

Baker's High Rye $59.99

KC12 $59.99

 

In addition, they've had a few cases of Larceny BP (B524 or C924 I think, didn't look that close) at $57.99 for months, with what looks like little or no movement; also saw the Dickel BiB that used to fly out the door still on the shelf. Encouraging signs in a small sample...

 

 

[Kepler]

21 hours ago, lemonman said:

Was in a nearby store today and it appears Beam Suntory might be trying to unload some stuff. They had these excellent prices (for around here), and a fair amount of most of it:

 

MMCS $27.99 

MM46CS $49.99

Baker's $49.99

Baker's High Rye $59.99

KC12 $59.99

 

In addition, they've had a few cases of Larceny BP (B524 or C924 I think, didn't look that close) at $57.99 for months, with what looks like little or no movement; also saw the Dickel BiB that used to fly out the door still on the shelf. Encouraging signs in a small sample...

 

 

 

Or perhaps more likely those discounts are happening at the retail or wholesaler level, rather than at the Beam Suntory level.

[lemonman]

6 hours ago, Kepler said:

 

Or perhaps more likely those discounts are happening at the retail or wholesaler level, rather than at the Beam Suntory level.

 

Yeah, that may be more likely. The fact that it was all Suntory stuff grabbed me.

 

 

[ThirstyinOhio]

Today was the "insiders" (just sign up for their email list) release of tickets for Kentucky Bourbon Festival.  All VIP tickets sold out in less than a minute....except for the $6995 VIP Oris President's Club ticket.  This year was a significant increase in price with standard VIP tickets starting at $695 while general 3 day admission tickets are just $190.  While I fully believe we are well on the way of the next bourbon glut, plenty of people are still willing to spend large sums of money to drink whiskey and have a good time.  If anyone else was fast enough to grab a ticket, I'll see you in September (if you're not coming to Bardstown this weekend).

[JT3NSB]

A quick dive into a certain bourbon YouTubers Discord channels and you can watch all the frothy new (and seemingly young) bourbon drinkers going nuts on available bottles.   For that group anyway, it would appear zero slowdown….  

[Kepler]

It's amazing to see how many new joiners that are still coming into local bourbon social media groups.  New to "the game" (as they often say).  I'm not sure what "the game" really means to them, ... but talk about being late to the party. 

[markandrex]

32 minutes ago, Kepler said:

It's amazing to see how many new joiners that are still coming into local bourbon social media groups.  New to "the game" (as they often say).  I'm not sure what "the game" really means to them, ... but talk about being late to the party. 

 

[Anwalt]

18 hours ago, ThirstyinOhio said:

If anyone else was fast enough to grab a ticket, I'll see you in September (if you're not coming to Bardstown this weekend).

 

I look forward to hearing about it, hope you have a bunch of fun!

 

I hate crowds. I almost always do off season stuff, keep dinners to 6 or fewer people, etc. Otherwise I'd be there.

 

See you soon.

[flahute]

[Kepler]

15 minutes ago, flahute said:

 

I've never heard of them.

[PaulO]

"less than 14 months in operation"  That appears to be no where near enough time to have any aged whiskey.  Subtract from that time needed to get the equipment set up, dialed in.  

"owes at least $28 million"    Somebody's got a math problem.

[PaulO]

I was at a large liquor store chain yesterday.  The surprise was on the bottom shelf.  It was full of WFE Rye (4 years old) @ $68 "limit one".  

No real interest on my part, other than the novelty of seeing it out in the wild.

[RWBadley]

3 hours ago, PaulO said:

I was at a large liquor store chain yesterday.  The surprise was on the bottom shelf.  It was full of WFE Rye (4 years old) @ $68 "limit one".  

No real interest on my part, other than the novelty of seeing it out in the wild.

That still seems like a high price to me. In my mind a four year old rye from a major producer -even at barrel proof, should be 40-55$ max

[MSB]

Is the boom over?

 

Found EC 18YR and Michter's 10yr bourbon on the shelf at 134$ otd and 150$ish plus tax otd, respectively. 

 

Yes both came home with me.

 

Why wouldn't they? My name is not Will, and I have no Power. 

[MSB]

Correction 

 

Michter's was 160$ + tax otd.