Jump to content
fishnbowljoe

A Bourbon Conundrum?

Recommended Posts

fishnbowljoe

This is something that has been gnawing at me for quite some time now. What do y'all think is going on?  Is it just me, or does anyone else have a theory? Have we reached the peak of the bourbon boom? Just what's up with price increases, shortages, products on allocation, rolling shortages yada, yada, yada, etc....,etc..., etc.... ?

 

Does anyone else besides me think that the cycle we seem to be in now may be perpetuated by the flippers, liquor store owners and distributors that might be a bit late to the party, or who are just now, or still trying to make a buck off past inadequacies in the market?  What about the fact that there's a spreading out of the wealth so to speak whereas many bars and restaurants are now getting more limited allocation items? 

 

One example: A local liquor store that I know of orders "abc" bourbon a case at a time. And they get it too. Three bottles a week at a time for a month. No case discount that way. Greedy distributors? Hmmmm? 

 

Second example: "Yeah I had some, but I already sold it all to some of my regular customers." My ass! This just screams of selling to customers willing to pay semi-inflated market prices, and/or who are flippers themselves that are willing to pay x number of dollars above msrp so they can still sell stuff at yet even more inflated prices on private websites. Disclaimer: I have no proof of this, but I will say that I've heard things from more than one source that indicates that this may be the case.

 

Third example: Weller 12 this time around a year ago. "Yeah, we have some, but it's not for sale. The owner is saving them all for his best customers, and for his family as Xmas gifts. Hold on a minute.....  Okay, I just called the owner. He'd be willing to part with a bottle for $100.00." Again, my ass.

 

Fourth example: Private selection Weller SR for $40.00 a bottle, and private selection Blanton's for $90.00 a bottle. Private selection bottlings? Hmmmm. <_< It seems to me that IIRC, buying a whole barrel is a bit cheaper than buying less than such. Am I wrong here? 

 

Fifth example: As Vosgar posted about recently, a local restaurant/bar owner in our area has a collection of Pappy and BTAC that would make pretty much anybody envious. Nope, I ain't gonna say it.......

 

IMHO, I believe that the bourbon boom has peaked. There are flippers, distributors, bar and restaurant owners, numerous liquor stores owners/managers and others that appear to me to be perpetuating the myth that it hasn't just so they can still make a buck. <_< That's my theory/story, and I'm sticking to it. 

 

Biba! Joe

 

 

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
elmossle

Valid points on all 5 examples Joe and have heard similar stories to one degree or another. However, I think we are at least another 2-3 years before we reach the peak in my opinion. There are far too many people still grabbing WSR at $40 a bottle because they can't find it or haven't seen any in years. Personally, I passed on a store pick of OWA last week because they wanted $45 for it. While I the Weller line like the next person, I wouldn't pay $45 for Weller 12. 

 

To me, this is what needs to happen for us to "peak" or have the bubble burst:

 

1. Regular, everyday shelf bottle prices need to out pace quality. I'm talking about BT, Four Roses, WT, KC, EC, etc. I don't think anyone in their right mind is going to pay $40 for BT. I know I'm not. When these bottles start sitting on the shelves longer and inventory builds, we will be heading down the bourbon mountain. 

 

2. The economy takes a turn for the worse and people no longer can spend during the year to keep relationships with store owners for LE's, or people have to choose between keeping the lights on or buying the latest batch of ECBP

 

Either way, for a lot of us who have built up some decent bunkers, there will be a time when we become very selective on what we purchase and just drink what we already have. I hope we reach the peak sooner rather than later, but I fear we still have a long way to go before that happens.

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
PaulO

All good points Joe.

We know that bars and restaurants (on premise accounts) get priority treatment by distributors.  Given those accounts buy so much product (including tons of bottom shelf stuff) it's not surprising.

Retail stores get what's left over if any.  They can do pretty much whatever they want to do with limited items that come their way.  They can keep it for themselves, or ask any price.

The secondary (black market) is also a problem.  I wouldn't be shocked to find out a lot of this activity is perpetuated by associates of: distributors, on premise accounts, or retail stores.  The idea of the freelance flipper seems like too much work, unless there are inside connections.

I think a big part of the problem (one company in particular) seems to want to find the limit to what the market will bear.

Meanwhile, there is still plenty of great bourbon at reasonable prices.  Also, I say shop at stores that don't gouge or play b.s. games.  I'm enjoying a pour of EW BIB that cost me $12.99 for 750ml bottle - really enjoying it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
GeeTen

All valid points, but let me add one more component to "on premise" account - large casinos coming online soon.  They are having a noticeable effect on "allocated" product availability this year around here.  Luckily, we still have retailers that are holding the line on prices, trying to limit/discourage acquisitions by known "flippers" and sharing what they get with their regular customers, regardless of their purchasing history.   ☺️

 

Happy Holidays y'all!

 

JMHO,

F.

8-)

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Richnimrod

I'll add this general statement that helps explain this issue for me....

There will always be people who are easily convinced to follow the latest 'trend', and/or desperately seek the newest shiny thing, to the exclusion of common sense (a total misnomer given how UNcommon it always seems to be).

There will always be incentives to loosen restraints on budgets for the "luxury" items that are seen as being part of "the good life" to which so many people aspire.

Given these two undeniable facts, and given the real shortages (that still exist, and will for a few more years minimum),  and the historic 'bargain' that good Bourbon has always been; I believe the 'boom' is a combination of 'correction' and emotion-over-mentality that will continue unabated for a good while yet... Maybe another 5-years before leveling off, rather than reversing course in any meaningful way.

All this is, of course just my own opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DCFan
10 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

IMHO, I believe that the bourbon boom has peaked. There are flippers, distributors, bar and restaurant owners, numerous liquor stores owners/managers and others that appear to me to be perpetuating the myth that it hasn't just so they can still make a buck. <_< That's my theory/story, and I'm sticking to it. 

 

Biba! Joe

I don't think we're anywhere near the peak yet. IMHO the reason why so many distilleries are doing away with AS bourbons is they can't keep up with demand so they're pushing their product out with less aging. Rack space becomes less of an issue when production capacity is increased if a product is only aged 4-6 years instead of 10-12.  And everything considered a staple is becoming harder and harder to find - BT, Weller, McKenna, Blantons, etc.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
smokinjoe
11 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

This is something that has been gnawing at me for quite some time now. What do y'all think is going on?  Is it just me, or does anyone else have a theory? Have we reached the peak of the bourbon boom? Just what's up with price increases, shortages, products on allocation, rolling shortages yada, yada, yada, etc....,etc..., etc.... ?

 

Does anyone else besides me think that the cycle we seem to be in now may be perpetuated by the flippers, liquor store owners and distributors that might be a bit late to the party, or who are just now, or still trying to make a buck off past inadequacies in the market?  What about the fact that there's a spreading out of the wealth so to speak whereas many bars and restaurants are now getting more limited allocation items? 

 

One example: A local liquor store that I know of orders "abc" bourbon a case at a time. And they get it too. Three bottles a week at a time for a month. No case discount that way. Greedy distributors? Hmmmm? 

 

Second example: "Yeah I had some, but I already sold it all to some of my regular customers." My ass! This just screams of selling to customers willing to pay semi-inflated market prices, and/or who are flippers themselves that are willing to pay x number of dollars above msrp so they can still sell stuff at yet even more inflated prices on private websites. Disclaimer: I have no proof of this, but I will say that I've heard things from more than one source that indicates that this may be the case.

 

Third example: Weller 12 this time around a year ago. "Yeah, we have some, but it's not for sale. The owner is saving them all for his best customers, and for his family as Xmas gifts. Hold on a minute.....  Okay, I just called the owner. He'd be willing to part with a bottle for $100.00." Again, my ass.

 

Fourth example: Private selection Weller SR for $40.00 a bottle, and private selection Blanton's for $90.00 a bottle. Private selection bottlings? Hmmmm. <_< It seems to me that IIRC, buying a whole barrel is a bit cheaper than buying less than such. Am I wrong here? 

 

Fifth example: As Vosgar posted about recently, a local restaurant/bar owner in our area has a collection of Pappy and BTAC that would make pretty much anybody envious. Nope, I ain't gonna say it.......

 

IMHO, I believe that the bourbon boom has peaked. There are flippers, distributors, bar and restaurant owners, numerous liquor stores owners/managers and others that appear to me to be perpetuating the myth that it hasn't just so they can still make a buck. <_< That's my theory/story, and I'm sticking to it. 

 

Biba! Joe

 

 

I have read these books Joe, and your conclusions are all wrong. ;)

 

Vashe Zdorovye!

 

 

83F068EB-16FA-415D-A5AA-1DE753E3B17A.jpeg

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
dad-proof

Market peaks tend to occur when greed is the driving force, continued growth/returns become a given, and dumb money rushes in. A well known investor tells a story that one day his mother, who had never shown an interest in picking stocks, called him excited about a tech IPO. He got off the phone, immediately made plans to sell his holdings, and thus became a legend for avoiding the dot com implosion of the early 2000s.

 

Applying this to bourbon,  I believe you've correctly identified several examples of greed running amok on all sides of the equation. Hoarders, flippers, sketchy distributor, store and on premise games, etc. Craft distillers are opening every week looking for a piece of the action, and the big boys are pumping out LEs and new brands/extensions like crazy, often allowing their "smart money" products to lose age statements, suffer in quality, and/or be discontinued. And consumers are willing to accept it. Non-enthusiasts and newcomers are spending dumb money at secondary pricing as fear of missing out and the desire to be part of the hot new thing override their senses. And many here, myself included, have allowed purchases to outpace consumption. Some for valid concern that their favorites are next on the chopping block, but in any event it serves to further push forward the demand curve in a way that is unsustainable.

 

We are at the peak, but it will take a while, maybe even years, before the dumb money realizes it and moves on to the next hot, can't miss thing. When that happens, the crash will lead to pain and misery for many. The big boys will survive, but not without change and slower times. There will be much more wailing and gnashing of teeth among craft distillers and flippers.

 

I just went through this in the crypto currency market. Some who bought Bitcoin for hundreds of dollars each were smart enough to sell most of it when it got to $15k, while others were buying in at $15k because of the money their friends had made and had visions of $50k Bitcoin dancing in their head, without even understanding crypto currency. It's now under $5k. I feel kind of bad, but understanding human nature is a great way to save/make money, or at least avoiding losing it!

 

 

 

 

Edited by dad-proof
  • I like it 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot

Recently I had the chance to tour a bunch of stores that were famous for great selections, as well as a bunch of smaller stores which I valued for their resistance to gouging.

 

I'd say that about 10% of the stores who used to have at least 2 recipes of 4R selections had even one, and none of the ones I tried were spectacular.

 

The "unicorns" I saw were mostly in the form of WSR or Blanton's (for $70). Someone had three ETLs atop a case for $190. 

 

The last of the holdout mom and pop stores I know have now tried to sell me a $400 GTS. So I'm not going there anymore. One store had two OWAs on the shelf and I brought them to the counter not even imagining they'd be overpriced and the owner rang them up at $49.99 each. 

 

I bought probably 12 Knob Creek barrel selections to try and find one I loved. While there weren't any dogs, only one was "almost there". Now I have 12 bottles of "just OK" KCSB to get through (first world problems, I know).

 

Thought maybe I was just jaded and came home to the bunker and tried some of my references - nope, the references were still superb. I have to conclude that barring special access with an elite picking club (which by Groucho Marx standards must be worthy, since they won't have me for a member), the warehouses are functionally picked out.

 

At one point I stood at a duty free and just shook my head at ageless whiskys selling for $140 which used to be 80 bucks for an 18+ age statement just a few years ago.

 

So I made a decision. Last year I had already decided that I wasn't going to hustle for any limiteds, and that I'd just work on store picks.

 

This year, and until further notice, I'm drinking from the bunker exclusively where bourbon is concerned. I still see the odd bargain (maybe a bad word since it's still expensive, maybe "opportunity") on rum or scotch. 

 

For me, the value just isn't there at this point in history. You can shear a sheep many times, but this sheep is skinned. Retailers, bars, and restaurants have gouged the fun out of it. Forget bourbon zen - this is a bourbon trial separation.

 

The most vigorous production expansions will start cranking out white dog by the end of 2019, particularly BT who is just ECLIPSING their former capacity. So, you know, this story has a happy ending. There's a metric shitload of good MGP aging in random rackhouses of the startup distilleries from 2012-2016 that will be nicely matured in a few years. 

 

Also, elmossle is right - the numbers have been pointing to a massive recession for years and years now, and all that's happened is bigger and more expensive band aids being put on a very serious problem. The social acceptability of dropping $200 on a bottle probably has its days numbered, certainly among the working class.

 

Yeah, I know it's supply and demand, and if people will line up to pay 50 bucks for OWA then best of luck to them.

 

"Let them have the stage, so long as I need not be in the audience" -Bukowski

Edited by The Black Tot
  • I like it 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Richnimrod
6 hours ago, Richnimrod said:

I'll add this general statement that helps explain this issue for me....

There will always be people who are easily convinced to follow the latest 'trend', and/or desperately seek the newest shiny thing, to the exclusion of common sense (a total misnomer given how UNcommon it always seems to be).

There will always be incentives to loosen restraints on budgets for the "luxury" items that are seen as being part of "the good life" to which so many people aspire.

Given these two undeniable facts, and given the real shortages (that still exist, and will for a few more years minimum),  and the historic 'bargain' that good Bourbon has always been; I believe the 'boom' is a combination of 'correction' and emotion-over-mentality that will continue unabated for a good while yet... Maybe another 5-years before leveling off, rather than reversing course in any meaningful way.

All this is, of course just my own opinion.

I'll add to my previous observations....

The gougers (retailers, distributors, even distilleries, and certainly anybody selling on the secondary market, whether private or not) are only a secondary part of this phenomenon.     They are cashing in on the ones I noted above, and they'll be making some stupid money on 'em as long as that kind of foolishness persists.   The supply shortages (mostly real; but certainly some is contrived to best advantage) are going to persist for several more years, due (obviously) to the aging required to make decent Bourbon.     There is really no incentive in the foreseeable future for any of the folx making all this cheddar to moderate their greed; therefor they shall not do so; therefor the 'boom' (or correction, or idiocy; call any of it what you wish) will continue unabated.    IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Bbstout
3 hours ago, dad-proof said:

Market peaks tend to occur when greed is the driving force, continued growth/returns become a given, and dumb money rushes in. A well known investor tells a story that one day his mother, who had never shown an interest in picking stocks, called him excited about a tech IPO. He got off the phone, immediately made plans to sell his holdings, and thus became a legend for avoiding the dot com implosion of the early 2000s.

 

Applying this to bourbon,  I believe you've correctly identified several examples of greed running amok on all sides of the equation. Hoarders, flippers, sketchy distributor, store and on premise games, etc. Craft distillers are opening every week looking for a piece of the action, and the big boys are pumping out LEs and new brands/extensions like crazy, often allowing their "smart money" products to lose age statements, suffer in quality, and/or be discontinued. And consumers are willing to accept it. Non-enthusiasts and newcomers are spending dumb money at secondary pricing as fear of missing out and the desire to be part of the hot new thing override their senses. And many here, myself included, have allowed purchases to outpace consumption. Some for valid concern that their favorites are next on the chopping block, but in any event it serves to further push forward the demand curve in a way that is unsustainable.

 

We are at the peak, but it will take a while, maybe even years, before the dumb money realizes it and moves on to the next hot, can't miss thing. When that happens, the crash will lead to pain and misery for many. The big boys will survive, but not without change and slower times. There will be much more wailing and gnashing of teeth among craft distillers and flippers.

 

I just went through this in the crypto currency market. Some who bought Bitcoin for hundreds of dollars each were smart enough to sell most of it when it got to $15k, while others were buying in at $15k because of the money their friends had made and had visions of $50k Bitcoin dancing in their head, without even understanding crypto currency. It's now under $5k. I feel kind of bad, but understanding human nature is a great way to save/make money, or at least avoiding losing it!

 

 

 

 

This is a great summary of current market conditions. While you may see it as peak as I previously did, after following the secondary market for the last 6 months I would say we are not there yet. The boom could last another 5 years or more. If the oversea markets catch on then we are in big trouble. 

 

There are still bright spots if your willing to look. I recently found McKenna 10 for $23, EWSB for $15, OE7 101 for $16, and OGD114 for $18.

 

The days of great Bourbon under $20 is over. I understand the popularity and price hikes. We we're spoiled for quite awhile.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mbroo5880i
9 hours ago, dad-proof said:

Market peaks tend to occur when greed is the driving force, continued growth/returns become a given, and dumb money rushes in. A well known investor tells a story that one day his mother, who had never shown an interest in picking stocks, called him excited about a tech IPO. He got off the phone, immediately made plans to sell his holdings, and thus became a legend for avoiding the dot com implosion of the early 2000s.

 

Applying this to bourbon,  I believe you've correctly identified several examples of greed running amok on all sides of the equation. Hoarders, flippers, sketchy distributor, store and on premise games, etc. Craft distillers are opening every week looking for a piece of the action, and the big boys are pumping out LEs and new brands/extensions like crazy, often allowing their "smart money" products to lose age statements, suffer in quality, and/or be discontinued. And consumers are willing to accept it. Non-enthusiasts and newcomers are spending dumb money at secondary pricing as fear of missing out and the desire to be part of the hot new thing override their senses. And many here, myself included, have allowed purchases to outpace consumption. Some for valid concern that their favorites are next on the chopping block, but in any event it serves to further push forward the demand curve in a way that is unsustainable.

 

We are at the peak, but it will take a while, maybe even years, before the dumb money realizes it and moves on to the next hot, can't miss thing. When that happens, the crash will lead to pain and misery for many. The big boys will survive, but not without change and slower times. There will be much more wailing and gnashing of teeth among craft distillers and flippers.

 

I just went through this in the crypto currency market. Some who bought Bitcoin for hundreds of dollars each were smart enough to sell most of it when it got to $15k, while others were buying in at $15k because of the money their friends had made and had visions of $50k Bitcoin dancing in their head, without even understanding crypto currency. It's now under $5k. I feel kind of bad, but understanding human nature is a great way to save/make money, or at least avoiding losing it!

 

 

 

 

Lots of great perspective provided in this topic.  Rather than trying to come up with something intelligent and knowing it would be similar to this, dad-proof you have summarized my perspective much more eloquently than I could.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
cfochs

I really don't think we've hit the "peak" of the boom yet.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Kepler
4 hours ago, mbroo5880i said:

Lots of great perspective provided in this topic.  Rather than trying to come up with something intelligent and knowing it would be similar to this, dad-proof you have summarized my perspective much more eloquently than I could.

Agreed; dad-proof hit the nail on the proverbial head

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
10 hours ago, Bbstout said:

The days of great Bourbon under $20 is over. 

I don't think so. Last week I bought a 1L Jim Beam Black for 19.50 Canadian, and I enjoyed the hell out of it.

 

The fever pitch of distillery expansions has glut 2.0 written all over it. People today are buyin' em faster than they're drinkin' em. Restaurants and bars are still building inventories. There comes a point where that dynamic flips. 

 

The only reason retailers can gouge is that everything's allocated, and if they get a bottle they've got the market cornered - it's a pseudo monopoly. Once every retailer can get premium bourbons in decent supply, they'll go back to having to compete for our business again.

 

And distilleries will also have to compete with each other again, once the floodgates of doubling capacity open.

 

I've said before I think people are wrong if they are counting on "the global miracle" of everyone around the world suddenly deciding that bourbon is the schizzz. Every spirit in the world who is increasing production has a version of this tune, including wine. And Asia isn't doing all that well these days, their boom is based on some very weak foundations. There are other areas in the world other than Asia, of course, but most of the places with disposable incomes fit for a whiskey hobby are in similar economic situations to the USA, since they're mostly members of the G20 and have been pursuing most of the same kicking of the can down the road. 

 

Anyway, I'm recently having the last laugh about people who told me I was crazy to run around building a bunker 5 years ago. 

 

They may have been half right - I may be crazy - but not for building a bunker. One of the better moves I made.

  • I like it 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Surtur

I totally think it has peaked, and I’ve been quite adamant about that for a while now. I find it comforting that every store has every LE at stupid prices- nobody is going to buy them anymore. Then next year when stores still have last year’s and the year before’s PVW shelved for $1000+ a piece, they lose interest in grabbing them because they aren’t selling. A store I used to trust a lot has all the BTAC for $700-$1000 each and 2018 Birthday bourbon for $800. The BTAC are all 2017 and they haven’t sold a single bottle. Not only that but think of how many releases are so highly sought after now because of the boom, heavily allocated, price gouging. I’m counting easily 25 off the top of my head. Newer fans or fair weather fans might go hog wild their first year and spend a ton or use credit cards because they’re given opportunity to buy a Stagg, but how many people can afford to even buy 25 of these bottles every year even at MSRP, let alone 5x MSRP?

 

On the lower level, Wild Turkey 101 now supposedly includes 8-10 yo bourbon in a $20 bottle, and it’s delicious. This seems to be a good sign of early glut, especially when the increased production fully kicks in. Totally anecdotal evidence here but it doesn’t seem in the last year or two that as many new fans have been latching on. Again, complete observation ok that one, I have no hard evidence.

 

Remember the peak could be a plateau and we may sit here for a bit, then take a few years before prices settle down and we can freely grab anything we want again. Whatever the case, there’s plenty of good and affordable bourbon to be found and how many new brands and expressions have been put out in the last decade?

 

The key to completely ending this phase I think lies in the average consumer more so than those of us here that are more extreme enthusiasts. Most of us here wouldn’t support price gouging to that extent, or follow trends and new bottles. Of course we all will have a goof here and there and overpay or buy something gimmicky, but it’s the people that do that consistently causing the problem.

  • I like it 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Vosgar
5 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

They may have been half right - I may be crazy - but not for building a bunker. One of the better moves I made.

Right there with you Paul. 

  • I like it 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mosugoji64

We are still ascending or at peak from what I've seen here. Dumb money, FOMO, and greed are in full effect. I see people paying stupid prices for everyday, pedestrian bottles that used to be daily drinkers for most here. AND THEY'RE HAPPY TO DO IT. It's fear of missing out - they get excited about finding Blanton's and post photos online with captions about landing a unicorn. Frantic posts about needing to know where to get ER abound. The recent frenzy over HMcK is another example. Based on that mentality, they're fodder for the gougers who are happy to take advantage and sell for double or more. I know that economic models say this is pure supply/demand, but I think it's based on a false notion that this stuff is more limited than it is, actually. The FOMO leads to shelf clearing. I frequently see posts about local Costcos or other stores having Brand X in stock only to see a post within 30 minutes that it's gone, along with posts bragging about hauling in multiples. It's insanity and, like Paul, I'm glad I stocked up over the past few years.

Occasionally, I see a post that warms my heart, like one recently where a guy broke down and bought a bottle of WT101 after avoiding it due to the belief that it can't be good at such a low price only to find that he loves it. Bargains are still out there, but we have to be willing to branch out and put in a little work to find them.

This isn't the same world we came up in, Joe. It's time to batten down the hatches and ride it out. Actually, it has been for a while. The storm just seems to have intensified a bit as of late. But, the storm has to break, eventually.

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
dmarkle

I think that maybe it has peaked domestically.  But -- when I've come back from overseas (Europe), I can't help but notice that there's little to no bourbon on offer(other than the biggest of brands).  That makes me think that there's a chance for international growth.  Who knows?  A lot of product might be going over to Asia and that's limiting availability domestically?  

 

That being said, that's just me trying to take the other side of the argument.  I do tend to think that the days of the $1000 PVW, for example are (as they should be) numbered.  I guess we'll really know when the number 7 shows up again on the neck of the Weller SR.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
smokinjoe

Until these numbers reverse, the boom is not over:

 

Sales of American whiskey grew 8.1 percent in 2017, jumping $252 million to $3.4 billion, according to the Distilled Spirits Council. Total sales outpaced sales of other adult beverages in the same year, including tequila, cognac and Irish whiskey.

 

There is always the temptation to confuse the shenanigans of the “bubble”, and its focus on secondary markets, limited edition pricing and availability, one’s personal position and opinion thereof, etc, with the actual realities  

of the continued “boom” growth of bourbon.  The “boom” is still very much alive.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
beasled
16 minutes ago, mosugoji64 said:

We are still ascending or at peak from what I've seen here. Dumb money, FOMO, and greed are in full effect. I see people paying stupid prices for everyday, pedestrian bottles that used to be daily drinkers for most here. AND THEY'RE HAPPY TO DO IT. It's fear of missing out - they get excited about finding Blanton's and post photos online with captions about landing a unicorn. Frantic posts about needing to know where to get ER abound. The recent frenzy over HMcK is another example. Based on that mentality, they're fodder for the gougers who are happy to take advantage and sell for double or more. I know that economic models say this is pure supply/demand, but I think it's based on a false notion that this stuff is more limited than it is, actually. The FOMO leads to shelf clearing. I frequently see posts about local Costcos or other stores having Brand X in stock only to see a post within 30 minutes that it's gone, along with posts bragging about hauling in multiples. It's insanity and, like Paul, I'm glad I stocked up over the past few years.

Occasionally, I see a post that warms my heart, like one recently where a guy broke down and bought a bottle of WT101 after avoiding it due to the belief that it can't be good at such a low price only to find that he loves it. Bargains are still out there, but we have to be willing to branch out and put in a little work to find them.

This isn't the same world we came up in, Joe. It's time to batten down the hatches and ride it out. Actually, it has been for a while. The storm just seems to have intensified a bit as of late. But, the storm has to break, eventually.

I agree with your points, but why bother stocking up on anything over the years if that too isn't FOMO? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Black Tot
4 minutes ago, beasled said:

I agree with your points, but why bother stocking up on anything over the years if that too isn't FOMO? 

 

There is a clear common sensible difference between FOMO on, say, Parker's Heritage, and FOMO on OWA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
cdcdguy

Not sure if it has peaked or not. As far as price and availability, it has gotten worse this year. Not that I care too much, this is the first year my LS guy didn't get me a Pappy or anything. Prices are rising. Four Roses yellow, now tan label costs 23.00. That's way up from 17.00 last year. Expensive for an 80 proofer. I found one HM10 this year. Last year I bought several and it's off the shelves now.

 

I refuse to pay 40 to 50 bucks for a decent bourbon. There are still many good ones under 25, and some cheaper. I am drinking those until the craziness calms down. I guess we will know when Blantons, Rockhill Farms and other return to the shelves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Charlutz

I was later to the hobby and bunker building than many here. Started stocking up in 2015 or 2016. I worked hard at it and got the BT and EC bottles I wanted because those are the ones that started to disappear. 

 

I dip into them regularly enough, but I get by on WT101, WTRB, ER10 and Stagg Jr. All are regularly available and fantastic to me. 

 

I was lucky enough to get 3 GTS this year, but personal bourbon zen came when I didn’t need to get a LE for each year. I’ve got the BTAC I want, the EC LE’s, some PHC and some FRLE. I don’t need every release from every year. If someone offers, I’ll buy it but no more FOMO for me. I’m perfectly happy drinking the available stuff or rums or $40 tequilas. 

 

I guess that’s not a perspective on whether the boom has peaked but rather one man’s opinion that I’ve found peace in not playing the game anymore. 

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
mosugoji64
1 hour ago, beasled said:

I agree with your points, but why bother stocking up on anything over the years if that too isn't FOMO? 

 

1 hour ago, The Black Tot said:

 

There is a clear common sensible difference between FOMO on, say, Parker's Heritage, and FOMO on OWA.

 

No FOMO involved in stocking up over the years. More a matter of picking up things here and there as I ran across them. Picking up a stellar private selection of something that I already had open at home or a couple of bottles of something not available in my area, for example. Over time, the bottles accumulate. There's a big difference between that and clearing the shelf of something that others are foaming at the mouth to get. I don't have several bottles of BTAC or PVW stashed and nothing that I had to chase a truck to get. Building a bunker over time does not equal a shelf-clearing, FOMO stash. That's what we're seeing these days.

  • I like it 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...