Cost per year for barrel proof NCF bourbon?

[Mako254]

The news of Four Roses private barrels price increase to $85-$100 (and it has been discussed in the Four Roses allotment thread) got me to thinking. Certainly Booker’s price hike is still an issue with some folks. 

 

So what is a fair price for barrel proof NCF bourbon? $10/yr for over 10 yrs? 

Booker’s at $85 for sub 7 year juice isn’t a great value for a 4 times a year release?

 

Unfortunately, I think prices will only be heading north especially for the single barrel, barrel proof, NCF juice that I seem to prefer. 

 

So when do you walk and leave it on the shelf??

[DPPSmoker]

What is NCF?

 

[Kane]

Two quick thoughts:

 

1) At least in my head this is all relative to what's available in the market. For example, when I can get a very solid KCSB with good age on it for $50, I base my "fairness" metric on that dollar amount. Don't really care for a $x/yr formula. $100 for a 10yr FR is simply not worth it.

 

2) NCF should never command a premium.

[Kane]

4 minutes ago, DPPSmoker said:

What is NCF?

 

Non-chill filtered.

[smokinjoe]

An idea of “cost per year” is not part of my decision making process.  

[0895]

2 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

An idea of “cost per year” is not part of my decision making process.  

Exactly.  Way to darn rational for me.  I'm an emotional buyer! 

[JCwhammie]

I'm a huge fan of 4R barrel picks.  I'll buy all day at $55, on occasion at $65-$70, but I'm out once they get north of $75.

Fingers crossed Campari doesn't raise the price of RR SiB. 

[mbroo5880i]

Age is not a linear function of quality.

 

[The Black Tot]

4 hours ago, mbroo5880i said:

Age is not a linear function of quality.

 

No, but I believe the OPs point is that it IS a linear function of cost of production.

 

It is also, for all intents and purposes, linear to a point - I don't drink any 3yr old product (including Peerless), and the number of acceptable 4yr product is maybe limited to Willett rye, which I still wish had been left in the barrel for another 4.

 

Distilleries seemed to be making money when it was less $5-7/yr at cask strength, and even less at dilution proof. W12 still has an MSRP of $35, although not in store practice. 

 

When Willett started charging $10/yr for their WFE at the gift shop, that was a big deal sticker shock for us. I still think it is too much, despite paying it once in a while. But on a regular basis, no.

[Spade]

3 hours ago, The Black Tot said:

No, but I believe the OPs point is that it IS a linear function of cost of production.

 

Agree with this completely!

 

For me, somewhere around $7 or $8 is where I start to hem and haw. At $10, I'm not very interested at all. Between $7-10, it depends on the circumstances, I guess.

 

My hunch is that the distilleries are being penny wise and pound foolish here with their pricing. Yeah, they're maximizing profit in the short run but it's a risky strategy in the long run if it alienates previously loyal customers. I'd be more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt with business decisions... except for all of the clumsy moves I've seen over the last few years and of course the history of the boom and bust nature of American whiskey.

 

If the whole idea is that "age isn't quality" is true (and of course there is some truth to it), why not build advertising campaigns around what makes a quality bourbon. Why rely on idiotic stories and nonsense for marketing? Anyway, I'm about to put in an order for some Armagnac. And I'm thinking of buying a bottle of Laphroaig 10 year cask strength for $65.

[Old Hippie]

To me it's a function of 3 things:

Maximizing profits (I don't deny any corporation the efforts to maximize profits. There is risk for them involved in pricing their particular product or service over what people are willing to pay. for instance, you can make $100 per case profit on 10,000 cases. Raise your prices and even sacrifice volume to make $120 per case on 9,000 cases. The net result is  you are making an extra $800,000 in profit with less production.

Marketing (If your product is of a high quality and well known, then scarcity drives up your perceived value for many consumers and increases demand and willingness to pay more - see PVW)

Supply (Single barrel picks tend to be cherry barrels. Rate the quality of the barrels of a particular distillery from 1 to 5 and generally the SBs will be either 4 or 5. If you sell too many of these you risk diluting the quality of the mother brand as you need a number of these 4/5 barrels to balance out the 1/2 barrels to create a consistent, quality product.)  

[Vosgar]

14 hours ago, smokinjoe said:

An idea of “cost per year” is not part of my decision making process.  

Generally I agree with this, but when a distillery tries to sell me a very young whiskey at a ridiculous price (an example: Peerless) it definitely plays a factor in my decision. 

[GeeTen]

19 hours ago, DPPSmoker said:

What is NCF?

 

 

Or UCF = "Un-chilled Fiitered" if you're European or the Loch & K(e)y Society (heh, heh).  

 

[berto]

At the rate I drink I already have enough to last me decades.  I've cut back on purchasing and will buy even less as prices rise.  I've gotten over the fear of missing out.  It would certainly make things easier if some $/yr formula existed that covered quality and value.  I'm just as happy buying a bottle of Turkey at CVS for under $20.  

[CardsandBourbon]

Which makes KC SiB PS one of the best values on the market I think.  The label states 9 y.o. so at worst you're at $5.00/yr.  All the PS bottles I've purchased are around 14 yrs.  That works out to $3.20/yr.  I know it's not barrel proof but 120 proof is still up there.  My only hope is that Beam doesn't realize how great a value this is and jack the price on it.

[fosmith]

16 hours ago, CardsandBourbon said:

Which makes KC SiB PS one of the best values on the market I think.  The label states 9 y.o. so at worst you're at $5.00/yr.  All the PS bottles I've purchased are around 14 yrs.  That works out to $3.20/yr.  I know it's not barrel proof but 120 proof is still up there.  My only hope is that Beam doesn't realize how great a value this is and jack the price on it.

Shhh!  They're probably reading this right now... 

[Obeezy1Kaneezy]

I’ve bought a bunch of FR picks.  I will buy significantly less at $100, that I can guarantee.  Nothing against them, but knowing the fact of what I used to get them for, with that big of a jump, it’s not going to happen.  I’ve got at least a few years worth anyway if I need to scratch that itch.

[Bob_Loblaw]

On 1/13/2019 at 7:07 PM, Kane said:

2) NCF should never command a premium.

Agree.  I recall hearing that Chill Filtering is a fairly expensive process so the argument could be made that NCF should be cheaper.  Unrelated, but along these lines a barrel pick should also never carry a premium in my opinion.  

 

I do feel like distillers (Heaven Hill in particular with the Old Fitz Bib) are starting to condition the market to accept a $10/year base cost. 

 

at $60 I was buying a bottle of just about every 4R PS I found regardless of recipe or age.  The whiskey was always good, usually on the shelf and priced well.  At $100 I will be much more selective, and want to try before buying.  Many more bottles will be passed on.   Even at the $60 price point the bottles do not fly off the shelves so I would imagine they will sit even longer now.

 

It's really a shame as I went to bourbon vs scotch for cost reasons and it's really starting to turn out to no longer be the case.  Although Scotch will still have many more uber expensive expressions and the bottom entry level is still cheaper for bourbon, that next tier is getting pretty expensive.