No George T Stagg 2021

[bayouredd]

5 hours ago, fishnbowljoe said:

I firmly believe that distributors are the cause of most, if not all of the problems with the allocations of LE’s. I’m pretty sure that distilleries don’t have the time or where with all to do all the accounting associated with liquor stores sales all across the country that participate in the “point system” or whatever. The allocation was a s**t show around here last year. I don’t foresee the distributors here changing their tune. It’ll probably be the same old song and dance again this year. Let the games begin.  

 

The other day I overheard the dist rep tell the LS worker that he needed to pull a certain bottle from the shelf because it was an allocated bottle. It was a rum so I didn't care but, that's more control than he should have as far as I'm concerned. D!khe@d!!!

[smokinjoe]

37 minutes ago, bayouredd said:

The other day I overheard the dist rep tell the LS worker that he needed to pull a certain bottle from the shelf because it was an allocated bottle. It was a rum so I didn't care but, that's more control than he should have as far as I'm concerned. D!khe@d!!!

You misheard or misinterpreted.  Probably, misinterpreted.  There are many potential reasons why the dist rep would say that, and most are not for nefarious reasons.  

[bayouredd]

11 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

You misheard or misinterpreted.  Probably, misinterpreted.  There are many potential reasons why the dist rep would say that, and most are not for nefarious reasons.  

Did not mishear, possible misinterpreted... I know the worker had no clue as to why anything was anything; young and new on the job, but I wondered why the rep had any say so in what the store needed to do. Even so, he should have taken that up with the owner, not a flunky...

[smokinjoe]

1 hour ago, bayouredd said:

Did not mishear, possible misinterpreted... I know the worker had no clue as to why anything was anything; young and new on the job, but I wondered why the rep had any say so in what the store needed to do. Even so, he should have taken that up with the owner, not a flunky...

Your description of the “flunky” says it all.  The rep was taking care of the interests of his customer…the owner.  That is a really good salesperson.  

[bayouredd]

38 minutes ago, smokinjoe said:

Your description of the “flunky” says it all.  The rep was taking care of the interests of his customer…the owner.  That is a really good salesperson.  

I do get that because I have a tendency to do the same in my business. I'm still just not sure how this applies to the dist making that decision. I think that MSRP is still relegated by the LS. The dist should only be making a suggestion. If I'm wrong please enlighten me. I don't mind the education...

[smokinjoe]

Just now, bayouredd said:

I do get that because I have a tendency to do the same in my business. I'm still just not sure how this applies to the dist making that decision. I think that MSRP is still relegated by the LS. The dist should only be making a suggestion. If I'm wrong please enlighten me. I don't mind the education...

What you described had nothing to do with determining MSRP.  Guiding a “young and new on the job” employee in proper placement of an “allocated bottle” is what any business owner should hope a rep would do for him.  Minimally, by stopping this at that point, it allows the store owner to make the call himself, and not leave it up to an unknowing person fresh on the job.

[lcpfratn]

5 hours ago, Paddy said:

I don't understand how BT's sales model is set up to exploit this.  Fireball is one of the hottest labels in the country, so they have no reason to push this on anyone.  Hell, it's a slam dunk for them as it doesn't even need much age on it so the warehousing and taxing are minimized.  WV is a micro-percentage of the market, and also requires little to no effort to produce, bottle and ship out.  Neither of the two even require a new barrel.  In all honesty, they don't really have much of a reason to push anything on anyone at the present, as they've proven year after year now that they can't keep up with demand, no matter what the product is.  That is not the case for every distiller out there, but for BT you really can't count on finding anything at your local on a given day.  

 

Sure, the three tiered system sucks, but it's been around forever.  The distillers certainly have not had much say in that, or it would have been eliminated years ago by a strong lobby and greased pockets. 

 

IMO, the distilleries only do what they've always done.  Lay up whiskey until it's ready to go into a bottle.  Once it hits whatever profile they're looking for, it's bottled, boxed up and out the door it goes... to the distributors.  I guarantee you that the '13 GTS you came across wasn't hanging out in Frankfort all that time.  So whatever changes in the secondary market you speak of, well... that's not on the distiller. 

 

He's sold that bottle and moved on, long ago.     

 

 

I think you are mistaken regarding the influence that Sazerac/BT has on Distributors to continually grow the sales of Fireball, Wheatley Vodka, and other Sazerac products. The Distributors, of course, then use their “influence” to convince Retailers to help them meet those goals. 

[mbroo5880i]

22 minutes ago, lcpfratn said:

I think you are mistaken regarding the influence that Sazerac/BT has on Distributors to continually grow the sales of Fireball, Wheatley Vodka, and other Sazerac products. The Distributors, of course, then use their “influence” to convince Retailers to help them meet those goals. 

There is no doubt that Sazerac/BT influences distributors to push sales of high margin/low cost to produce products in return for access to highly sought after products.

[Paddy]

1 hour ago, lcpfratn said:

I think you are mistaken regarding the influence that Sazerac/BT has on Distributors to continually grow the sales of Fireball, Wheatley Vodka, and other Sazerac products. The Distributors, of course, then use their “influence” to convince Retailers to help them meet those goals. 

I do understand marketing and distribution.  The same formula applies to paper plates and dog food.  My point is that I disagree with the argument that any distiller controls the secondary markets based on how they move their product.  Once it’s sold, the distributor has total control of the product they have purchased for a particular region.  Do they get a better allocation for moving the most Kibbles and Bit’s?  Sure they do, or why would they bother?  
 

But once it’s sold a distiller has nothing to do with a pallet of ETL sitting in a warehouse for 5 years, no more than a distributor has anything to do with a 10x retail marked up bottle of Pappy sitting in a liquor store case for 5 years (or marked up on the interwebs for that matter).

 

In all things supply and demand driven, if someone’s willing to hold long enough, someone’s always eventually going to fold.  Once the distributor has his allocation, we’re all potentially going to be held hostage based on our locals relationship with them.  And then, potentially again by the local itself,  

Its just like the talk of private selections costing more, maybe due to having to pass the extra costs along.  Well that’s just BS in my opinion.  The distiller didn’t sell the barrel to the store.  They sold it to the distributor for the exact same price they sell the standard bottles for, based on the contract and set MSRP.  
 

To summarize, I just don’t blame the distiller that sold the bottle(s), just like I don’t place any blame with Ford Motor Co for the current going price of a mint condition, candy apple red, 64 1/2 Mustang. 
 

I’ll change my mind when the distiller (example BT) starts holding BTAC bottles behind a glass case at the gift shop.  
 

For the low, low price of…

 

Carry on…

[dcbt]

21 hours ago, evasive said:

I’m just annoyed that Fred is telling people to buy Rare Breed instead. 

 

Is he really?   WTRB may be the best readily available bourbon at any price point (and even considering price it's one of the best values), so I sincerely hope the "Fred Effect" doesn't come into play here.  I'm so past the hunting game that when I heard about GTS, I just shrugged and said to myself, "Who cares anymore?'

[evasive]

7 hours ago, dcbt said:

 

Is he really?   WTRB may be the best readily available bourbon at any price point (and even considering price it's one of the best values), so I sincerely hope the "Fred Effect" doesn't come into play here.  I'm so past the hunting game that when I heard about GTS, I just shrugged and said to myself, "Who cares anymore?'

yup. 

[OldScoutGuy]

Virginia, a control state, is still sitting on their allotment, usually around 1600 bottles, of 2020 GTS. It’s just sitting in the warehouse. Explain that one for me 

Edited October 9, 2021 by OldScoutGuy

[FacePlant]

1 hour ago, OldScoutGuy said:

Virginia, a control state, is still sitting on their allotment, usually around 1600 bottles, of 2020 GTS. It’s just sitting in the warehouse. Explain that one for me 

Control state means government running what should be private business. So there you have it.

[G L Tirebiter]

Yes, like everything these days, control states have their critics and their supporters.  I'm not a complainer, so I'll take the good with the bad.   I can occasionally get Eagle Rare for $29 and Blantons for $59. 

[Shizzy]

On 10/8/2021 at 12:15 PM, Paddy said:

Fireball is one of the hottest labels in the country, so they have no reason to push this on anyone. 

 

 

According to whom?

[Paddy]

11 hours ago, Shizzy said:

According to whom?

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/general/2015/10/06/how-fireball-cinnamon-whiskey-became-a-billion-dol.aspx 

[Shizzy]

15 hours ago, Paddy said:

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/general/2015/10/06/how-fireball-cinnamon-whiskey-became-a-billion-dol.aspx 

So, a 2015 article that gives us sales figures.  I can only assume this wholesale sales to the distributor or from the distributor to retail stores and not actual liquor store sales.  That said, the overall wholesale number has increased since then illustrating the pressure placed upon cheap liquor sales fueled by retail store's desire for the coveted annual carrot known as the BTAC and Pappy seasonal release.  One would be a bit naive to think that Sazerac doesn't take full advantage of the way they have marketed and set up their limited releases.  Nobody else has done this except Four Roses and Wild Turkey, but even they aren't on the level that Buffalo Trace is as annual seasonal premium offerings go.  The hype and unforeseen whiskey revolution creating shortages only fuels this system further.  

Edited October 12, 2021 by Shizzy

[Shizzy]

On 10/8/2021 at 8:21 PM, Paddy said:

I do understand marketing and distribution.  The same formula applies to paper plates and dog food.  My point is that I disagree with the argument that any distiller controls the secondary markets based on how they move their product.  Once it’s sold, the distributor has total control of the product they have purchased for a particular region.  Do they get a better allocation for moving the most Kibbles and Bit’s?  Sure they do, or why would they bother?  
 

 

I think you're slightly marginalizing the "get a better allocation for moving the most Kibbles and Bits."  It's the proverbial carrot of which I speak.  You may keep your opinion sir, but I think the distilleries have far more control than you believe.  They DO after all have the ultimate choice of whom to distribute their product with.  Though, this too is becoming a problem for the consumer as distribution is down to 1100 nationwide from 3000 in 1995.  As these distributors consolidate their power their political contributions wield considerable political power.  That's another topic for another time.  Good day, sir.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Shizzy

[Paddy]

5 hours ago, Shizzy said:

I think you're slightly marginalizing the "get a better allocation for moving the most Kibbles and Bits."  It's the proverbial carrot of which I speak.  You may keep your opinion sir, but I think the distilleries have far more control than you believe.  They DO after all have the ultimate choice of whom to distribute their product with.  Though, this too is becoming a problem for the consumer as distribution is down to 1100 nationwide from 3000 in 1995.  As these distributors consolidate their power their political contributions wield considerable political power.  That's another topic for another time.  Good day, sir.

My local doesn’t get a better allocation of anything for selling a sh#t ton of Fireball, heck they’ve lucky to see any BTAC at all. 
 

Product demand drives Fireball sales (since we’re using it as the example).  So much so, that they just keep the cases stacked in the floor next to the cash register.  They can just grab it and ring it up, because it’s the #1 product moving out the door

 

When Sazerac took the line, sales were approximately 1.7M US.  It’s been a staggering success…

Edited October 12, 2021 by Paddy

[Shizzy]

16 hours ago, Paddy said:

My local doesn’t get a better allocation of anything for selling a sh#t ton of Fireball, heck they’ve lucky to see any BTAC at all. 
 

Product demand drives Fireball sales (since we’re using it as the example).  So much so, that they just keep the cases stacked in the floor next to the cash register.  They can just grab it and ring it up, because it’s the #1 product moving out the door

 

When Sazerac took the line, sales were approximately 1.7M US.  It’s been a staggering success…

All demographics I suppose.  I don't see much of it in my area at the LLS I shop at (certainly not in cases by the door).  Nor, do I know anybody who actually drinks it.  Not sure who the target market is, but I'd wager it's college towns/cities and people between the ages of 21 and 40.  I do know that the LLS I go to complain about the pay to play relationships with their distributors and use this (excuse?) as their reasoning for secondary pricing.  Personally, I don't care what their reason is if the market is bearing the pricing.  Why should they leave the money on the table for a flipper if they're the ones taking all the risk and paying all the taxes/fees to sell liquor legally?  If it's not Fireball, it's certainly the rest of the distributor's portfolio being shoved at them for the chance at the carrots conveniently offered in the final quarter of the year.  Not sure how you go about replacing/overhauling the three tier system, but one thing is for sure.  It's broken for the consumer and needs repair.  The worst thing the Federal government ever did for the consumer was to leave it all up to the individual states on how to handle sales.  To undo that mess would be a nightmare.

[Special Reserve]

The biggest movers are always the closest to the cash register.  It's as simple as that.  As I walk through the football tailgates this fall almost all have a bottle of Fireball on the liquor table.

[PaulO]

I read that before prohibition, a distillery could sell and mail product directly to consumers.  When the postal carrier made the delivery, an adult had to sign for it.  It sounds pretty simple.

[Shizzy]

10 hours ago, PaulO said:

I read that before prohibition, a distillery could sell and mail product directly to consumers.  When the postal carrier made the delivery, an adult had to sign for it.  It sounds pretty simple.

If only it were.  When you have the distributors paying lobbyists in Washington however, things just don't seem to be as simple.  I think Kentucky is now allowing intrastate sales from distillery directly to consumer.  I also think Washington D.C. is included in that.  Which is a thin veil as D.C. can sell and ship to just about anywhere.  I think the caveat is that whatever the distillery is selling directly to consumer must also be sold wholesale to distributors.

[HoustonNit]

On 10/8/2021 at 12:04 AM, Kepler said:

 

They haven't published bottle counts for a couple of years if I'm not mistaken.

Not sure they ever did?  My understanding was they use to give barrel counts and people would estimate bottle counts from that?  They stopped doing even barrel counts a few years back.

[smokinjoe]

3 hours ago, HoustonNit said:

Not sure they ever did?  My understanding was they use to give barrel counts and people would estimate bottle counts from that?  They stopped doing even barrel counts a few years back.

It looks like the first two years did not give anything, either (2002 & 2003).  2004 - 2018 gave barrel counts.  Nothing since.  At least as I can see on the stat page they included in the 3-pack cases and what is on the BT website.