Bourbons being discontinued?

[CrispyCritter]

While I find BT and AAA to be quite different, it would be very hard for me to say that one was "better" than the other. Indeed, I find them both to be good, solid pours that offer a lot of quality for the buck. If I'm in the mood for a smooth, gentle bourbon, I reach for the AAA; if I want something a bit more aggressive, the BT gets the nod.

I must say, I've never been let down by anything I've had from Buffalo Trace.

[BourbonJoe]

Likewise, Ancient Ancient Age has seen its glory days and will not ever be the brand it once was. So, develop a new brand that may have a 50 year life cycle and watch sells increase.

Ken

If you can't produce enough whiskey to supply present market demand, why on earth would you be interested in selling more whiskey??

Joe

[bluesbassdad]

Joe,

I think this is yet another instance where the time frame of interest is significant. Somehow the time frame often becomes an invisible premise. When that happens, two (or more) sides in a disagreement are unable (not merely unwilling) to grasp other viewpoints. (My first glimmering of this phenomenon came when General Motors bought my employer, the previously privately owned Hughes Aircraft Company. Within a very short time our time horizon shifted from "the next armed conflict" toward "this quarter".)

As a bourbon purchaser my time horizon is largely keyed to my next purchase opportunity (and I have no concern whatsoever regarding what the masses purchase). I suppose about 10% of my interest and awareness is directed toward future releases and changes in distribution of existing bottlings.

If I were a bourbon supplier, my interest in the future would be greatly increased. I would try to foster as much growth in sales, production and profit as possible (recognizing that changes in the three don't necessarily coincide).

In the current instance another significant factor is the difference between the purchasing criteria of members of this group as compared to the demographic segments that produce the preponderance of the profit in the industry. Yes, we may well be prepared to buy more AAA 10 y/o if it were made available, but we are probably in a tiny minority.

If Buffalo Trace were to expand production of AAA 10 y/o to satisfy the demand among us bourbon fanatics, would sales growth from that point forward be able to keep pace with that of a newly created bottling, unfettered by ties to the distant past? I believe Buffalo Trace is betting the answer is "no", and I tend to agree.

Of course, YMMV.

Yours truly,

Dave Morefield

[Ken Weber]

Team,

Reading your responses, I must say that I have given the wrong impression concerning Buffalo Trace and AAA 10 year. Since our current whisky inventories have been stretched to the limit, we have increased production every year since I have been here. We have the largest inventory of aged bourbon in the world. Still, several of our brands have been far more successful than we anticipated. When we bought Weller and Charter back in 1999, our acquisition model showed that we bought 2 very mature brands that were experiencing volume declines. As a result, we thought we would have to slowly decrease bourbon production for these two brands. Much to our surprise these brands did not continue to decline, but rather turned around. Now, instead of producing less bourbon, we needed more! Add to that the success of Buffalo Trace, Eagle Rare 10 year old SB, Elmer T. Lee, Rock Hill Farms, Blanton's, etc., and you can see that poor forecasting for a couple of years puts a big hole in your ability to meet demand a few years further down the road.

Our goal is to ramp up production every year in order to meet demand. Since demand is currently running ahead of supply, we find ourselves in the enviable position of selling everything we make. We also find ourselves in the position of loosing sells because we can not get more product to the consumers. Look at Buffalo Trace. It is currently rolled out market-wide only in Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and London. How many more cases do you think we could sell if it was available in California? However, in our defense, 6 - 8 years ago this distillery was dying and the entire bourbon category was going nowhere fast (except down!). Again, look at Van Winkle. We have more than doubled sells on these brands; where does that whiskey come from? Much of it comes from Weller and Sazerac Rye. Also, we sell out of the 20 and 23 year VW in a matter of days. Who in the world could have predicted back in the early 1980s that people would pay $199/bottle for a 23 year old bourbon? Even if they did, who wants to tie up their cash flow for 23 years before they can realize a return on their investment?

Our goal is to continue increasing production and roll BT out across the country. Please note, AAA 10 year and BT come from 2 different recipes; they are not the same mash bill. BT mashbill #2 (AAA) also produced Blanton's, Elmer T. Lee, Rock Hill Farms, Hancock's, and couple others. We do not want to permanently do away with the brand, simply suspend it until we can bring more stocks on line.

Ken

[TNbourbon]

Team,

Reading your responses, I must say that I have given the wrong impression concerning Buffalo Trace and AAA 10 year...

[ratcheer]

No wonder AAA is so good. Look who its siblings are!

Tim

[ratcheer]

I was just in Kentucky a few weeks ago, and two of my three purchases were from that list: Rock Hill Farms and Elmer T. Lee.

I guess I am a member of the Buffalo Trace bandwagon, as Blanton's is another of my perennial favorites.

Tim

[barturtle]

Would the same thing happen with ER 10yr 101, just suspend it until stocks come on line or is it a goner?

[Ken Weber]

Interesting question! I really can not answer it at this time. My crystal ball would say that since it has a faithful following, when more whiskey comes on line, the brand may be revived. This is purely speculation on my part at this time.

Ken

[barturtle]

I'll keep my fingers(and toes) crossed