When will BT catch up?

[ramblinman]

Coworker is from mainland China and brought in some bajji, http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baijiu. Apparently very popular there, but it's a very different spirit than whiskey and especially bourbon. Granted they have a billion people so it doesn't take a very take percentage of the population liking something to shift markets, but I'd be surprised if bourbon is ever anything more than a curiosity there

[Harry in WashDC]

As I sit here sipping on a basic BT, I agree whole-heartedly. When I traveled there in 1977 pre-recognition, some members of our group brought their own booze. While the local beer was good, most of us found the wines and spirits almost undrinkably sweet. Conversely, when we shared our whiskeys and, in one guy's case, 100 proof vodka with our guides, one of them, in spite of heroic efforts to be polite about it, wanted to know how and why we drank acid. My wife went there for work 20 years later, and history hadn't changed all that much. The tourist hotels had limited selections of imports to satisfy, but local stores carried only plum wines and baijiu under various brand names. Oh, man, another sup of BT, and those bad memories of mandatory toasts at those mandatory dinners just fade away.

[cowdery]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Don't bother reporting the following: Van Winkle, Antique Collection, Experimentals, Weller 12, Sazerac Rye, Ancient Ancient Age 10-year. Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

I'm not really sure why BT has seemingly had more trouble than anyone else. My theory is that it has to do with having so many different brands, many of which are regional. For example, people are now trying to buy Weller in places that never sold much Weller until recently.

A couple of points in response to some of the comments in this thread.

- Nothing is being 'reallocated' to Pappy. Pappy is scarce on purpose.

- Sazerac had no need to expand as it has only been in the last 18 months or so that they have been running both distilleries at capacity.

- They have plenty of barrels and American forests have plenty of wood. Fact: despite increased barrel production, the stock of mature white oak in the forests increases every year. The forests are very healthy.

- Sazerac may be dealing with these periodic shortages in some expressions of some brands for a few more years but I think it will be no more than two to three years.

Edited November 30, 2014 by cowdery

[Flyfish]

Looked for and/or asked for ETL at 6+ stores. I think it is "special" even if not a BTAC or Pappy.

[DBM]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

Specific to the Seattle metro market (I've visited 20+ stores this year, about 15 semi-regularly):

- Blanton's was gone for 10 months. A few bottles trickled in during the last few weeks. (I purchased two bottles in Oregon during the outage)

- ETL has been gone since March. The only time I've seen it since was in a raffle alongside BTAC this fall. (Commemorative never showed up in WA either)

- Rock Hill Farms has been gone since February. No sightings. (I really like RHF, though I mainly purchased to give as gifts because of the packaging)

- OWA is only semi-regularly available at one chain. Every other retailer I've visited doesn't have any, or has included them as special bottles in raffles.

- CEHT Barrel Proof only shows up in the fall as consolation prizes to accounts that don't get BTAC or VW.

[Harry in WashDC]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Don't bother reporting the following: Van Winkle, Antique Collection, Experimentals, Weller 12, Sazerac Rye, Ancient Ancient Age 10-year. Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

Well, limiting my comments only to Blanton's, BT, CEHT, ER, ETL, and Saz6 because these were the only ones I looked for OR expected to find in the stores I frequent in DC, MD, and VA, only BT and Blanton's disappeared for more than a month or so. Fewer bottles of CEHT, ER, ETL, and Saz6 were on the shelves, anyway, so I always chalked up the occasional absence to failure to restock. BT and Blanton's were missing in March-May 2014, but BT started reappearing in May in handles; 750s reappeared in June, and neither size has been missing ever since (in spite of my bunkering both within a week of their reappearance). Indeed, sales of BT (usually $1 to $3 off) happen occasionally. Blanton's (much to Paul E's consternation I am sure) reappeared around here in June, too, and has not disappeared since. CEHT never disappeared but moved to the locked cabinet or the ladder-only top shelf-no price change, though. ER disappeared about the time its neckband changed from "10 years" to stars but had reappeared about the time the SB thread on that change reached its third page. The disappearance was noticeable but, really, was probably due to hunters (like me) grabbing the "10 year" neckbands faster than wholesalers could send boxes with star bottles to retailers.

Short answer to Chuck's - Any actual shortages the last 3 months? ANS - Shelves stay stocked with BT products regardless of how much I buy. Even a bottle or two of ETL or Saz6 can be found if I hit more than one store at a time.

[The Black Tot]

Thanks for the helpful info, Chuck.

In your opinion have they ramped up cooperage production capacity sufficiently to meet the upcoming demand from the new distilleries (Bulleit and Michter's coming online in 2015) and rackhouse expansions (BT 2015 at least) coming soon? Sounds like a lot of rackhouse space to fill in a short time, and a much higher rate of barrel supply. You wrote that you sometimes chat with the president of Independent Stave. Has he said anything about dealing with the upcoming rush? Anything that you can repeat, of course.

Edited November 30, 2014 by The Black Tot

[theglobalguy]

I'm still waiting for someone to explain why BT and Blanton's keep being on sale when they do show up. Not sure if it's the stores or the distributors providing rebates for the stores....but given supply/demand, makes 0 sense.

[ramblinman]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months?

OWA seems scarce at my shops. Plenty of WSR but red caps lacking.

[danz]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Don't bother reporting the following: Van Winkle, Antique Collection, Experimentals, Weller 12, Sazerac Rye, Ancient Ancient Age 10-year. Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

I'm not really sure why BT has seemingly had more trouble than anyone else. My theory is that it has to do with having so many different brands, many of which are regional. For example, people are now trying to buy Weller in places that never sold much Weller until recently.

A couple of points in response to some of the comments in this thread.

- Nothing is being 'reallocated' to Pappy. Pappy is scarce on purpose.

- Sazerac had no need to expand as it has only been in the last 18 months or so that they have been running both distilleries at capacity.

- They have plenty of barrels and American forests have plenty of wood. Fact: despite increased barrel production, the stock of mature white oak in the forests increases every year. The forests are very healthy.

- Sazerac may be dealing with these periodic shortages in some expressions of some brands for a few more years but I think it will be no more than two to three years.

Sorry, I appreciate your experience and contacts with Sazerac, but I reject the limitations here, both in time and product scope, other than VW and BTAC, which are officially limited.

In NY:

BT regular was out for about 3 months at the beginning of the year in many stores in NY. When it has come back it is roughly 50% more than control states/suggested retail - I won't be buying it at those prices.

OWA has not been on shelves for over a year. I had to put in a special request at two stores I do a lot of business with to get exactly 1 bottle this year. Weller 12 has been out for longer - even special requests were fruitless - I see no justification for excluding this. Both of these have also been gone at stores I have seen in MD and DC. Texas folks also say it's gone from shelves. I also see no evidence for concluding the Weller stocks are not feeding Pappy, whether or not Pappy is scarce on purpose. Weller Special Reserve has been out most of the year, on the shelves about 10% of the time. I'm having some right now and, to be honest, I wouldn't miss it, or Pappy, if 7 year OWA came back and Pappy disappeared from the face of the earth.

Eagle Rare has been out of stock pretty consistently 80% of the year and has only briefly shown up on shelves at what appears to be 50% markups over suggested retail. I have seen this both in NY and in DC/MD at multiple stores. I won't be buying much at those prices either. This is money left on the table for Sazerac: I was thinking today of what bourbon profile I would like most regularly, and the closest match I could think of was Eagle Rare (although I haven't yet opened my new "small batch" version).

Why exclude Sazerac rye? It has also been gone from shelves for over a year except for a couple of sightings, again at 50% markups, at multiple stores in NY, DC and MD.

E.T. Lee has been out for most of the year - a batch was recently distributed and it stayed on the shelves about a week in NY, but only in the suburbs. In the city it never hit the shelves, from what I saw - I had to special request it.

Blanton's has been out for good chunks of the year, but it doesn't excite me, due to the price, proof and Age International's decision to keep the good stuff out of US distribution.

The only BT product I have been able to find as much as I want is Stagg Jr., though if I wanted another, I haven't seen one in over 6 months.

After all of your exclusions, what is left that BT makes? 1792?

It has been said here before: if BT won't keep products on shelves, or if the products get marked up unreasonably, people will keep looking until they find something else.

It seems that BT is trying to run too many brands from the same stock. Weller stock supports WSR, OWA, W12, VW10, VW12, PVW 15, PVW 20 and PVW 23, for example. BT stock supports BT, Eagle Rare, Stagg Jr., Stagg and ER 17.

The Weller lines especially seem spread too thin.

Is there a reason you want us not to focus on these? Could you explain if Sazerac has relayed some relevant information to you?

-Dan Z.

Edited November 30, 2014 by danz
Age International's proper name

[p_elliott]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Don't bother reporting the following: Van Winkle, Antique Collection, Experimentals, Weller 12, Sazerac Rye, Ancient Ancient Age 10-year. Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

I'm not really sure why BT has seemingly had more trouble than anyone else. My theory is that it has to do with having so many different brands, many of which are regional. For example, people are now trying to buy Weller in places that never sold much Weller until recently.

A couple of points in response to some of the comments in this thread.

- Nothing is being 'reallocated' to Pappy. Pappy is scarce on purpose.

- Sazerac had no need to expand as it has only been in the last 18 months or so that they have been running both distilleries at capacity.

- They have plenty of barrels and American forests have plenty of wood. Fact: despite increased barrel production, the stock of mature white oak in the forests increases every year. The forests are very healthy.

- Sazerac may be dealing with these periodic shortages in some expressions of some brands for a few more years but I think it will be no more than two to three years.

Blanton's I wasn't able to get this for almost a year.

[GaryT]

On what BT products have you experienced out-of-stocks recently, say in the last three months? Don't bother reporting the following: Van Winkle, Antique Collection, Experimentals, Weller 12, Sazerac Rye, Ancient Ancient Age 10-year. Not something you heard was out, or something you noticed was out but didn't intend to buy. Just report things you wanted to buy but couldn't find. If you tried more than one store, how many? Go.

I'm not really sure why BT has seemingly had more trouble than anyone else. My theory is that it has to do with having so many different brands, many of which are regional. For example, people are now trying to buy Weller in places that never sold much Weller until recently.

A couple of points in response to some of the comments in this thread.

- Nothing is being 'reallocated' to Pappy. Pappy is scarce on purpose.

- Sazerac had no need to expand as it has only been in the last 18 months or so that they have been running both distilleries at capacity.

- They have plenty of barrels and American forests have plenty of wood. Fact: despite increased barrel production, the stock of mature white oak in the forests increases every year. The forests are very healthy.

- Sazerac may be dealing with these periodic shortages in some expressions of some brands for a few more years but I think it will be no more than two to three years.

ETL and OWA at 4-5 stores, each for several months. Both were relatively "unknown" a year ago (I was walking past rows of ETA for $25). Elmer's passing certainly raised awareness to the bottle that bears his great name; OWA has been tossed around social media as a component of "poor man's Pappy". Since the world is convinced that Pappy is the best stuff ever bottled; I think that drove demand up substantially there.

How quickly things spread in social media is something that is relatively new. 10 yrs ago, if you didn't put a lot of effort into raising awareness for a brand, you depended on word of mouth to slowly cultivate a following. Today, someone says something on Twitter and people go ape-shit within a few days. I know that I had never heard of OWA until a few years ago myself (until finding SB.com to be honest!) I've never seen a modern ad for it, but now see it thrown around facebook fairly frequently. Yes, many of the groups on facebook are a small number, but I believe that if you had a random poll from 5 yrs ago and one today as to how many people had even heard of these two brands - the numbers would be staggering.

[t44tq]

I've noticed that, over the past year, there was no Weller 12 or OWA on the shelves, anywhere in the area. However, in the past couple months, I see W12 and OWA everywhere, at reasonable prices. ETL was very hard to come by until very recently, although PA has had it consistently. ETLC sold out immediately, though, especially with Lee's passing.

There was a Blanton's shortage for at least 6 months, where no one had it in stock, but I see it now.

CEHT has been pretty scarce since last fall, although PA has had CEHTSB on sale for a long time, and the rye has been available for a long time. 1B and BP are not very common, although I've seen 1B nearly everywhere recently.

I don't know what's going on at Buffalo Trace, but it seems like some of these lines become very scarce every now and then.

[Tony Santana]

I think part of it is just knowing where to look. I know of one fairly decent sized store that rarely has ETL, and I can find it readily at a store that's about 3 blocks away. CEHT can usually be found at certain places (although the BP has never been plentiful), and other stores never stock it. And some of it is regional. I've never seen a bottle of Weller 12 in Wisconsin.

That said, BT products do seem to be less plentiful in general. I've seen Blanton's all year round, but rarely see more than a couple bottles on the shelf. Same with Baby Saz and OWA. ER10 used to be everywhere, and now it may go missing for short periods of time. RHF seems to have mostly disappeared, I was surprised when I saw a bottle recently. I've noticed some price creep, but not more than a couple bucks a bottle.

[nd2005]

Like some of the others, I partially reject the conditions set by chuck. Sazerac rye is a $30 rye, and there is nothing particularly "special" about it. It's not a limited release, it's not a seasonal. It's BT's only non-premium rye, and they can't come close to keeping it on the shelves.

Weller 12, similarly, is a $30 bottle. The most conceivable reason for its shortage is that the stocks once used for this bottle are being diverted to the VW line.

But that said, focusing on the "main" BT products:

-Elmer T Lee was extremely hard for most of this year, going back as far as January/February or so. I went months without being able to find a bottle. This has recently improved and my main store has had it on the shelves regularly for about a month now.

-Eagle Rare was gone all summer

-OWA was periodically gone

To their credit, I'd say that all three of these have been in regular stock the past month, and some stores have also recently gotten in single barrel picks of OWA and ER.

We never had any RHF or Blanton's shortages - but I also think those don't sell particularly well in my area (very high state minimum price compared to other states). The last time I bought RHF it was gathering dust.

[jaycamm]

I bet they could ease up the shortage if they slowed down production of Benchmark, Bentley's, Bighouse, Buckhorn, Col. Lee, Coulson's, Kentucky Gentleman, Kentucky Tavern, Setter, Two Stars and Zachariah Harris.

[danz]

For people reporting that they see OWA, ER and ET Lee in the past month, I am skeptical that this is something other than a recent one time distribution of these that will just disappear again for several months. I thought about stocking up, but the prices were too high on ER (and too high even to purchase on BT) and everything else was limited to 1 per customer or special request only - several NY and MD stores.

[nd2005]

For people reporting that they see OWA, ER and ET Lee in the past month, I am skeptical that this is something other than a recent one time distribution of these that will just disappear again for several months. I thought about stocking up, but the prices were too high on ER (and too high even to purchase on BT) and everything else was limited to 1 per customer or special request only - several NY and MD stores.

[Auracom]

It's officially been one year since I've seen ETL or Weller 12 on a store shelf in the Chicago suburbs. They might as well be discontinued at this point. I personally don't care much about the Weller but the ETL scarcity is irritating as hell and has me really annoyed with BT.

[mbroo5880i]

I bought two WL12 in October or November 2013. I haven't seen it on the shelves of any liquor store in Indy since then. OWA disappeared early Fall 2013. I saw some this past summer but it went quickly. Baby Saz has been in and out several months at a time. ER diminished significantly from Fall 2013 until Summer 2014. Yes, it could be found but mainly as remaining inventory not restocked inventory. Just because I can find something at 1 out of 20 stores doesn't mean it isn't scarce.

However, recently two of the larger Indy area chains both received store selections of ER.

I know I mentioned this before but I recall Freddie at BT telling us during a tour in 2013 that WL12 was going to become more difficult to find because some of it would end up in the WLW/Pappy lines. Freddie is more creditable than your typical tour guide. I don't believe it is to increase the amount distributed but due to diminishing stocks of aged whiskey.

[ccleve23]

I have been fortunate to pick up multiple bottles ETL and ER recently. I have never seen Weller 12 in my state ever.

[PaulO]

I was able to have a local store order OWA for me a couple months ago. I asked for four. They got me two. I have not seen a bottle of W12 or ETL for maybe two years. Even when these products were available, only certain stores carried them.

[garbanzobean]

I have been fortunate to pick up multiple bottles ETL and ER recently. I have never seen Weller 12 in my state ever.

They don't distribute to Maryland, sadly.

[cowdery]

Dan Z, I excluded the things I know are scarce so nobody needs to waste time telling me they're scarce.

Edited December 1, 2014 by cowdery

[cowdery]

Black Tot, I'm told cooperage capacity is not a problem. The only bottleneck in barrel production has been in getting enough timber out of the forests. I believe this because the cooperages have increased their capacity tremendously. There used to be three cooperages making new whiskey barrels. Now I can think of at least seven. Adding cooperage capacity is relatively easy and low cost compared to adding distillery, maturation, and bottling capacity. Cooperage capacity is just about the last thing we have to worry about.