Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Spade]

I agree with Joe in that I'm not sure I understand what's meant by "hipster" in this context. Stated differently, I don't think it's twenty-somethings who are making limited edition bourbons tough to find. Far more likely it's folks with a lot of disposable income. Related to this view, I worry about the tendency to view anyone who has gotten interested in bourbon in the last year or so as somehow not genuinely interested.

Reading through this thread, the same usual suspects keep coming up. Limited editions are hard to find. Some BT products are harder to find. Beyond that, it's not clear to me where the shortage is.

I don't think the bubble at the high end of the market is going to burst soon. But, there's plenty of great bourbon at $30, at $20 — even at $10 — to worry too much about the limited stuff. My attitude is: if I come across a limited bottle at a reasonable price, I'll grab it. Otherwise, I'll be happy to give my money to those distilleries putting out great whiskey at good prices that's readily available.

[The Black Tot]

I don't think the term "hipster" is central to the discussion in this thread.

If you're not comfortable with the term and it's connotations, mentally replace it as you read with "temporary enthusiast high-volume conspicuous purchase demographic"

[garbanzobean]

This entire thread has me kinda scratching my head since the beginning. On the one hand, these "hipsters" are being derided for "getting in and moving on", while folks here are explaining/justifying how they have, would or will do the same thing...I don't see a difference.

I'm not meaning to sound standoffish, but as an enthusiast you either like to drink, discuss, explore, learn, and experience Bourbonia, or you don't. This treating it likes it's some sort of "phase" that one is going through, frankly sounds rather superficial.

Personally, I'm trying to be more grateful for what's out there and easily available. If I want something "special," I'll grab something from the bunker or look outside the bourbon world. I think hipsters are an easy target, but the bottom line is that too many people want the same thing right now. I'll stick with stuff I can find easily.

[Spade]

"temporary enthusiast high-volume conspicuous purchase demographic"

While my guess is that this describes some non-trivial portion of new bourbon drinkers, I personally do not feel capable of determining the motives of others. This is directly related to the point I was trying to make — I don't think it's a good idea to have this attitude about people who are new to bourbon.

At the risk of repeating myself — to me, it doesn't seem useful to spend time lamenting what once was. So I choose to focus on the positives, which is the abundance of great whiskey at reasonable prices.

[Xevious]

I'm really not sure how things have changed in the few years that I've been buying whiskey, as I've been happy with readily available, and affordabe bottles. The only thing that has really effected me is the Weller shortage. But strangely enough, I just walked through four liquor stores today and saw a case or so of Weller 12 at each location (I've not seen a bottle in a year or more). OWA has always been around, but spotty at times. I'm not sure if that's a good sign, or if that will be the last of it for another year once it's all gone.

[KyleCBreese]

I think the boom is really only on the top-shelf (anything limited) and some bottles that have the perception of being top-shelf (Wellers, ETL). I think the boom there will continue for a while, at least a few more years. I think most distilleries have caught up or will catch up on the mid and bottom shelves. I no longer have trouble finding ER10, BT, EC12, like I used to. You can pretty much avoid the boom by shopping on the middle shelves and below.

I think the boom on the top-shelf/limiteds will only begin to slow when people who have constantly tried to get those bottles just simply give up and either leave bourbon and find something different to drink, or they begin to discover more affordable bourbons.

[393foureyedfox]

You can pretty much avoid the boom by shopping on the middle shelves and below.

best-put entry so far

[Patrick_OKC]

Came across two spots in Plano carrying W12 over the last few days. Handle price $38 at one place, and $42 at the other. The first I had seen in a while.

Pat

[The Black Tot]

Next re-appearance: ETL.

[BigBoldBully]

You can pretty much avoid the boom by shopping on the middle shelves and below.

I wish this were true. Yet there is a long list of dropped age statements, experiences of younger and hotter tasting whiskey than was previously dumped behind the same label, shortages, outages, substantial price increases, etc., that seems to say the opposite. Thankfully one can still find a good bit of decent bourbon at a reasonable price in most areas, but to maintain the boom has pretty much affected only the top shelf strikes me as unfounded.

[Harry in WashDC]

What you say is true, BBB, but as Kyle and Fox point out, unless one is interested in ONLY one profile or some formerly generally available premium offering that, due to short stocks, has become nonexistent or overhyped (yes, PVW, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt), there's lots of fairly-priced stuff out there to consume while waiting for the retailer to put your faves back on the shelves. One anecdotal example -- basic BT was nowhere to be found around WashDC last year about this time. Then, sometime during the Summer, handles started showing up. By October 2014, 750s started showing up. Yeah, shelves sometimes emptied, but as the months rolled by, shelf-clearing slowed down. Now, if one store is out, more often than not, I can walk a couple doors down and find a half-dozen bottles sitting in another store.

EDIT: This may not be true for, say, ETL, but even the occasional ETL can be found if one hits at least six stores. And, around here, that's maybe a four-block walk downtown.

Edited March 26, 2015 by Harry in WashDC

[Swoboda]

I'm really not sure how things have changed in the few years that I've been buying whiskey, as I've been happy with readily available, and affordabe bottles. The only thing that has really effected me is the Weller shortage. But strangely enough, I just walked through four liquor stores today and saw a case or so of Weller 12 at each location (I've not seen a bottle in a year or more). OWA has always been around, but spotty at times. I'm not sure if that's a good sign, or if that will be the last of it for another year once it's all gone.

[smokinjoe]

One thing to remember regarding Weller 12, is that up until a couple of years ago it had very, very, limited distribution. It was only available in a handful of states. Georgia for instance, was not distributed to. So when considering that W12 disappears quickly from shelves and takes longer to be replenished, that certainly is partially the result of what is produced being spread very thin, as compared to the past.

[Tony Santana]

I don't want to turn this into a Weller 12 thread, but since I got more heavily into bourbon a couple of years ago, I never saw it on the shelves here, although OWA and WSR both were fairly plentiful. The only bottle I ever got was in a trade on a multi-bottle deal. A month or so ago it showed up for the first time (as far as I know), albeit in very limited quantities. I grabbed only one at first, partly because I wanted to leave some for my bourbon brethren and partly because I'm not honestly blown away by the stuff and find its primary value to be as a component in the SB blend. When it lingered a bit longer, I bought two more bottles. Now it's long gone and I suspect we won't see any more for quite a while.

What does that tell us? I'm not entirely sure. A sign of hope, since it has at least appeared on a shelf here? I would like to think so. The "glass half empty" part of me sees it as a cynical marketing ploy - give 'em a little taste and they'll crave more, and be willing to pay more when it shows up again.

[Tony Santana]

On the other hand, I just finished off a store select SAOS 8 year, and I'm thinking about going back and buying multiple bottles. Why? Bourbon boom, bust, or possibly impending bust has nothing to do with it. They're still available on the shelf and have been for some time. I'm not hoarding them as some sort of investment strategy (I'm not sure they have that kind of potential value, but I'm not a flipper anyway, so it wouldn't matter if they did). It's just that I find it to be an incredibly good bourbon at a fair price, and since it's a store select pick I may never find that particular profile again.

If I do buy multiple bottles, I suppose I could be accused of being a hoarder. But any "bubble" effect has nothing to do with my purchasing habits, and anyone who wanted such a bottle could have waltzed in and bought it for months now (assuming they knew where to look).

Edited March 26, 2015 by Tony Santana

[Kalessin]

I find the mentions of standard Buffalo Trace being absent or selling out quickly kind of amusing, as one of my regular stores has had at least three cases stacked to the side of their regular bourbon shelves for a few years now. Goes on markdown from time to time, too.

[BigBoldBully]

Thanks for reminding me about the W12, Tony. Exact same experience in my part of the state. Also, Henry McKenna is now all over the place, when I had not seen it for years. That one in particular I am taking as a positive sign to weigh against the negative (and have now opened bottles from three different McKenna barrels :cool:).

[BFerguson]

It's a book for bourbon in general, but a bust for availability and interest.

When there is rolling shortages of basic bottles, that's a problem. Not to mention the insanity of LE products. Looking back, it's sheer crazy how fast it went from products languishing on the shelf, to the stupidity of secondary markets for rare and "common" bottles.

Maybe it will go back to what it was, and maybe it won't. But in the meantime, I'm happy to sit back and watch the scene unfold while I drink from the bunker. 09 Mariage tonight? Maybe.....

B

[corpse_welder]

I know I'm about 7 pages late here, but things only seem to be getting worse, which is the usual plateau before getting better for us. I haven't bought much bourbon in the last year, but I did make a rare trip to the liquor store yesterday just because and everything I bought in 2013 has gone up $10+. For example, I last bought Buffalo Trace in Nov. 2013 for $20 and it's now $30. George Dickel went from $22 to $30 and WT101 is now $22. They had one bottle of WT Rye 101 at $45 for 1L, so good to see that coming back. Still no Weller, however. Other than that, OGDBiB is sitting comfortably at $18, and my grocery store sells WT 101 for $15 so I am going to sit bunkered in my house with those two until the storm blows over

[The Black Tot]

Yeah, I don't think we're ever going to be seeing a shortage of basic bottles. The most the bubble seems to have been able to hurt us is to interrupt some mid-shelfers. They were the last to disappear, and will be the first to re-appear.

It's a top shelf and limited crisis. This Cured Oak thing is a pretty good indicator of how savage the limited market still is. I have a tough time imagining how it could be worse than the swarm over CO.

Somehow people have to get tired of paying secondary. What's going to make that happen?

Probably it's going to be women putting their feet down. That sounds funny, but it's probably not too far from the truth.

[garbanzobean]

Yeah, I don't think we're ever going to be seeing a shortage of basic bottles. The most the bubble seems to have been able to hurt us is to interrupt some mid-shelfers. They were the last to disappear, and will be the first to re-appear.

It's a top shelf and limited crisis. This Cured Oak thing is a pretty good indicator of how savage the limited market still is. I have a tough time imagining how it could be worse than the swarm over CO.

Somehow people have to get tired of paying secondary. What's going to make that happen?

Probably it's going to be women putting their feet down. That sounds funny, but it's probably not too far from the truth.

I got my hopes slightly up about the CO being easy to find, but the facebook fervor has turned me off to the point that it'd basically have to fall into my lap for me to buy a bottle. Having tried the BTEC run I assume it's the leftovers of, I know it'll be good stuff. But my bunker is a lot closer than the liquor store, so . . .

[The Black Tot]

I got my hopes slightly up about the CO being easy to find, but the facebook fervor has turned me off to the point that it'd basically have to fall into my lap for me to buy a bottle. Having tried the BTEC run I assume it's the leftovers of, I know it'll be good stuff. But my bunker is a lot closer than the liquor store, so . . .

Exactly. I've been watching it because I'm stuck on a boat with nothing to do, but it's not a very nice picture. I'm getting the sense that a very low percentage of these bottle are being bought with the intention of consumption, with the majority being planned before they're even out of the store for trade-ups or aftermarket sale.

I suppose I'm partially to blame. I bought my first few aftermarkets this year. Being an Old Charter fan, I gave up hope on a natural Proprietor's Reserve.

It's the dusties that got me, and I'm drinking them...but even that's no excuse. Secondary is secondary.

I've got to put my money where my mouth is. I'm getting back on the all-retail-no-secondary wagon, effective immediately.

[garbanzobean]

Exactly. I've been watching it because I'm stuck on a boat with nothing to do, but it's not a very nice picture. I'm getting the sense that a very low percentage of these bottle are being bought with the intention of consumption, with the majority being planned before they're even out of the store for trade-ups or aftermarket sale.

I suppose I'm partially to blame. I bought my first few aftermarkets this year. Being an Old Charter fan, I gave up hope on a natural Proprietor's Reserve.

It's the dusties that got me, and I'm drinking them...but even that's no excuse. Secondary is secondary.

I've got to put my money where my mouth is. I'm getting back on the all-retail-no-secondary wagon, effective immediately.

Meh, I'd consider paying secondary prices (preferably at a legal auction) for a couple of dusty bottles (mostly ND era Old Grandad. Really want to try that). I guess I shouldn't differentiate between stuff like that and the new releases, but for some reason I do. Then again, I'm too lazy to figure out how to even find the secondary market, so I don't think there's much risk of me becoming part of the problem.

[ThirstyinOhio]

I think the mid and bottom shelfers will catch back up in a few years but I honestly think the limited releases will remain hard to get for a very long time. There are simply way too many consumers and too little product to satisfy and thanks to the Internet I don't see that supply catching up to the new world market.

I live in Ohio and have never seen a bottle of Weller on a shelf because the state doesn't bring it in and the amount of PVW or BTAC that comes to this state is less than what some liquor store chains get. I'm constantly introducing brands to people here in Ohio that they've never even heard of, yet those in other states take these brands (or did) for granted. My point is that even here in the USA, bourbon hasn't reached full market potential and now with the world getting a taste for it too, until limited editions are produced in 100k+ runs we won't be seeing them on the shelves anytime soon.

The secret is out and there is no stopping it.

Edited March 31, 2015 by ThirstyinOhio

[Tony Santana]

I've never gone to the secondary market. For some reason I think I'd be more inclined for a dusty, but I hate to feed into that mentality. I've got plenty to drink without going that route.