Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[HD 335]

I don't think we've seen the peak yet. Just the other day, I saw a Martin Mills 24 year bourbon export bottle sell for $4100. I'm pretty sure I saw that same bottle sell for under $1,000 a year ago. In my eyes, the peak for me has different meanings and categories. Have we seen the peak of LEs and astronomically high secondary and auction costs? No. Have we seen a peak and where mid tier bottles are selling, bottles like Weller 12, Four Roses PS, Blanton's... Etc. Possibly... pricing has steadily gone up in the three years I've focused more on American whiskey. When will mid tiers and bottom shelf pricing flatten out? Probably when more bottles start to accumulate on shelves from increased production. Not all new whiskey will make it into the LE category, although Diageo may make me eat my words since obviously they have learned Jedi mind tricks getting people to dump money into their Orphan barrel products.

We're not at Peak Bourbon yet. Still too many fools spending stupid money on bottles they've been told are must have. The stupid money isn't a drain on many of the people spending it. Some of them are nothing but flippers looking to trade their way to bigger deals. Others need to show off. Some actually drink the stuff and can stomach the current prices and the higher prices to come. Buying on the secondary market makes sense for these guys. Why spend hours chasing the chance to get a handful of bottles at close to MSRP when they can spend their time making money or playing golf or actually seeing their kids? $700 for a bottle of PVW15 is silly but when your hourly is in that ballpark it makes more sense to buy spend the money than spend the time.

This is what many folks don't realize, the top tier of secondary spenders have disposable incomes and "hourly" wages that are in the hundreds if not thousands. I can't quite fathom spending thousands of dollars on a single bottle but the truth is I'm not even on the same planet as people like that. I don't even bother to put much thought into how they choose to spend their money.

[mark fleetwood]

What we really need is a big jumpstart in huge volumes of production. All the craft distilleries in the world added up won't put out (pick a number) 250,000 cases a year, and what we need are millions. Beam (and another distiller, can't recall which one, maybe Four Roses) now generate more than half of their annual revenue from overseas. If there were moth-balled, MPGI-sized facilities in China, India and Europe, would you mind them firing up the still and flooding overseas markets with 2yr, 4yr and 6yr whiskey and calling it "borbon"? I wouldn't.

[kcgumbohead]

The mention of "moth balled" distilleries brings to mind the Old Taylor distillery. I met one of the new staff there during the sampler trip and as it ties into a boom, bubble whatever, I hope it has enough legs to allow for places like OT to come back on line. That facility is HUGE and if restored to its former glory would be a crown jewel on the bourbon trail, an absolute MUST visit. The new folks are gearing up to resume distilling and renovations are underway for the rickhouse as well ( scaffolding, new lumber, electrical...). That would serve several purposes, preserve history, add bourbon inventory, increase stops on the tourist trail. I have been hoping for an Old Taylor resurrection for a long time so if this boom enables that than it puts a positive on something that many have been lamenting these past few years, myself included.

QUOTE=mark fleetwood;471589]What we really need is a big jumpstart in huge volumes of production. All the craft distilleries in the world added up won't put out (pick a number) 250,000 cases a year, and what we need are millions. Beam (and another distiller, can't recall which one, maybe Four Roses) now generate more than half of their annual revenue from overseas. If there were moth-balled, MPGI-sized facilities in China, India and Europe, would you mind them firing up the still and flooding overseas markets with 2yr, 4yr and 6yr whiskey and calling it "borbon"? I wouldn't.

[garbanzobean]

People outside of this forum are going nuts over Blood Oath. When asked why they want it, the answer seems to be that they don't want to miss out on a rare opportunity to try an LE, despite mixed early reviews. Better to waste $70+ on a mediocre bourbon than miss out.

Just sayin' guys. We reap what we sow.

[ebo]

]People outside of this forum are going nuts over Blood Oath. When asked why they want it' date=' the answer seems to be that they don't want to miss out on a rare opportunity to try an LE, despite mixed early reviews. Better to waste $70+ on a mediocre bourbon than miss out.

Just sayin' guys. We reap what we sow.[/quote']

I would hazard a guess that it has more to do with the "kick-ass" name.

[VolForLife]

At the risk of sounding curmudgeonly, I am ready for the "millennials" to move along to something else so they can feel trendy and cool.

Not that I don't appreciate my recent college graduate kid's contemporaries showing interest in bourbon, but it would IMHO to a degree, help put some reasonable balance back into supply and demand.

Thank God I don't have a taste for Scotch. I remember a few years ago wishing I had purchased some stock in blue agave farms when all of the "cool people" drove the price of tequila into the stratosphere.

Old fart rant over...[emoji12]

[garbanzobean]

At the risk of sounding curmudgeonly, I am ready for the "millennials" to move along to something else so they can feel trendy and cool.

Not that I don't appreciate my recent college graduate kid's contemporaries showing interest in bourbon, but it would IMHO to a degree, help put some reasonable balance back into supply and demand.

Thank God I don't have a taste for Scotch. I remember a few years ago wishing I had purchased some stock in blue agave farms when all of the "cool people" drove the price of tequila into the stratosphere.

Old fart rant over...[emoji12]

That's pretty rude. I'm technically a millennial, if on the beginning end of it. I've been drinking bourbon for more than a decade. I don't know if social media is a good indicator of who is buying what, but based on what I've seen, it seems pretty evenly spread across the ages. If anything, I would think you would be pleased to see bourbon introduced to a younger generation. Frankly, if previous generations had been more interested in the stuff, we might have more than a handful of major distilleries operating right now. I'm not saying I believe that, but it is just as valid a point as wanting millenials and hipsters to shove off.

[smokinjoe]

At the risk of sounding curmudgeonly, I am ready for the "millennials" to move along to something else so they can feel trendy and cool.[emoji12]

First, it was the "hipsters" who were to blame. Then, the "yuppies". Now, "millennials"? Good grief...Will we ever stop blaming everybody else?

[unclebunk]

First, it was the "hipsters" who were to blame. Then, the "yuppies". Now, "millennials"? Good grief...Will we ever stop blaming everybody else?

I blame you, Joe. Or more precisely, I blame your liver![emoji2]

[smokinjoe]

I blame you, Joe. Or more precisely, I blame your liver![emoji2]

Could be, Hank!

[Harry in WashDC]

OK, Joe. I confess. It's all my fault. Ten years ago, if I had more than four 750s of bourbon in the house, it was because we had a party coming up. When I wanted something ordinary OR special, I just drove four blocks to pick it up. Then, stuff went crazy including me, and bourbons I liked disappeared, got expensive then disappeared, or just got expensive. I adjusted my price window but could do nothing about the shortages. Now, I have mixed cases all over the house, maybe a dozen open bottles, and a barely controllable urge to buy more whenever I see it. The upside is: I have broadened what I'll buy (mostly because I found I liked things I used to turn my nose up at) and what price I'll pay to ensure I alwaysALWAYSalways have a sufficient rotation of open offerings of things I like. So blame me. I can take the heat - as long as I have a free hand to hold my glass.:kiss:

[garbanzobean]

I blame bourbon for being awesome, 'Murrcan, and thusly, extremely likeable.

[VolForLife]

Fair enough. Didn't mean to sound rude, so my apologies for that.

My kids are "millennials" and I do appreciate it when they show interest in things from their parents generation - food and music come to mind for instance. I mentioned my appreciation in my original post.

I'm just not a fan of people jumping on a trendy bandwagon because it's the cool thing to do at the time. It drives and keeps prices up unnecessarily high (see previous tequila reference). Yeti coolers comes to mind off the top of my head as pandering to that crowd for instance...

Sorry if I offended anyone. I thought this was an Internet forum (a place to express yourself, ask questions, make commentary, without attacking other members....which I was not).

Anyway, those are my observations. But since I'm new to this particular forum, I'll choose my words more carefully going forward. [emoji12]

Edited May 2, 2015 by VolForLife

[TunnelTiger]

It's all good VFL. Members of this board have pretty thick skins and consuming mucho bottles of bourbon accentuates this. :toast:

[VolForLife]

It's all good VFL. Members of this board have pretty thick skins and consuming mucho bottles of bourbon accentuates this. :toast:

Thanks. Good to know. I was hoping it's a place frequented by grown men to learn about the uniquely American adult beverage...

You know, "guy talk" as it were. [emoji482]

Edited May 2, 2015 by VolForLife

[VolForLife]

OK, Joe. I confess. It's all my fault. Ten years ago, if I had more than four 750s of bourbon in the house, it was because we had a party coming up. When I wanted something ordinary OR special, I just drove four blocks to pick it up. Then, stuff went crazy including me, and bourbons I liked disappeared, got expensive then disappeared, or just got expensive. I adjusted my price window but could do nothing about the shortages. Now, I have mixed cases all over the house, maybe a dozen open bottles, and a barely controllable urge to buy more whenever I see it. The upside is: I have broadened what I'll buy (mostly because I found I liked things I used to turn my nose up at) and what price I'll pay to ensure I alwaysALWAYSalways have a sufficient rotation of open offerings of things I like. So blame me. I can take the heat - as long as I have a free hand to hold my glass.:kiss:

I resemble this post as well. I wish I'd had the opportunity to learn from my dad about Kentucky Straight Bourbon.

Had he still been around for my 20-40's, I would likely be sitting on a vast treasure trove at this point in my life.

[smokinjoe]

Thanks. Good to know. I was hoping it's a place frequented by grown men to learn about the uniquely American adult beverage...

You know, "guy talk" as it were. [emoji482]

Slow down there, Smokey...Uh, there's women on the site, too...

[VolForLife]

Slow down there, Smokey...Uh, there's women on the site, too...

10-4. Got it. [emoji106][emoji106]

Message received.

Edited May 2, 2015 by VolForLife

[Harry in WashDC]

Joe's post did get me thinking about how my own behavior has changed due to the boom. And, even though I made fun of it, I do think that we geeks contribute to the problem. I know that as I learn more about bourbon (what has been already about 45 years of schooling and self-teaching), I'm more likely to try "new" things than I was ten years ago even as I buy multiples of basics (which I also didn't do ten years ago) just in case there's an interruption in supplies. Multiply my behavior by, what, 5000 SBers, and that means there are 50,000 or more bottles sitting in bunkers that were on the shelves ten years ago.

Excuse me, now. I'm going to sit in my bunker and cogitate awhile.:drink:

[garbanzobean]

VolForLife: I don't hold the keys to any kingdom here. As far as I'm aware, you're free to express any opinion that doesn't violate the SB terms of use. Part of that is respecting the fact that other people are going to disagree with you or might occasionally be offended by what you say. Doesn't mean we can't have productive discourse or enjoy a drink should our paths cross in person.

Harry: great point. There isn't enough LE bourbon to satisfy SB member demand, let alone worldwide demand. Best enjoy what we've already got and be glad there's great stuff on the shelves. No need to blame any group(s) of people for the shortage of rare stuff, because the good stuff is plentiful.

[squire]

Hear hear, the weather is beautiful, my bank account is in the black and the liquor store is open until 10 pm.

[mark fleetwood]

Excuse me, now. I'm going to sit in my bunker and cogitate awhile.:drink:

[BigBoldBully]

Oh boy, this has to be another clue. A liquor store near me is now advertising Blood Oath in a special "three pack housed in a wooden crate" for just "$240.00 with certificate of authenticity." I have often wanted to see discounted multi-packs of spirits, but perhaps should have been more careful with the wishing....

[johnnybogey]

Oh boy, this has to be another clue. A liquor store near me is now advertising Blood Oath in a special "three pack housed in a wooden crate" for just "$240.00 with certificate of authenticity." I have often wanted to see discounted multi-packs of spirits, but perhaps should have been more careful with the wishing....

before you know it, we'll start seeing bottles with pieces of wood that it was aged in similar to what they did with basketball cards (e.g. cards with a piece of the players jersey).

[suntour]

What's kind of interesting is how stuff like Blood Oath doesn't even register on the secondary. Even the flippers aren't touching it with a 10 foot pole.