Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[dcbt]

What's kind of interesting is how stuff like Blood Oath doesn't even register on the secondary. Even the flippers aren't touching it with a 10 foot pole.

I guess it's reassuring that distilleries can't pump just anything out and have it shoot the moon. Kentucky Owl seemed to garner a yawn as well.

[johnnyflake45]

The Cigar Boom in the 1990s almost ruined the Cigar Industry, but it recovered somewhat and then it happened all over again, starting in late 2010/11 and it's still going strong, with what should be $3.00 Cigars, selling for $8/$12. Just like the Housing Market, it will collapse under it's own stupidity!

I feel strongly, that this Boom, which has been going on far too long, will simply implode at some point. The working man and even the hobbyist, except for the very well healed hobbyist, can only be pushed so far, with gimmicks and high prices. At some point, it will suddenly, all turn to shit!

[jakerthesnaker79]

The Cigar Boom in the 1990s almost ruined the Cigar Industry, but it recovered somewhat and then it happened all over again, starting in late 2010/11 and it's still going strong, with what should be $3.00 Cigars, selling for $8/$12. Just like the Housing Market, it will collapse under it's own stupidity!

I feel strongly, that this Boom, which has been going on far too long, will simply implode at some point. The working man and even the hobbyist, except for the very well healed hobbyist, can only be pushed so far, with gimmicks and high prices. At some point, it will suddenly, all turn to shit!

+1 - as the weather warms in the south many have already started to move on from bourbon - I notice now on the ailses more people go to light beer and vodka. At least in ATL they have been...Combined with the silliness of some of the products coming out - should be a nice long break.

[squire]

However the boom shakes out I suspect higher prices will remain.

[portwood]

However the boom shakes out I suspect higher prices will remain.

I agree.

Prices rarely come down on anything other than commodities.

The most likely scenario is prices stay unchanged for a period of time - resulting in an effective drop when inflation is accounted for.

[polish.bourbon]

+1 - as the weather warms in the south many have already started to move on from bourbon - I notice now on the ailses more people go to light beer and vodka. At least in ATL they have been...Combined with the silliness of some of the products coming out - should be a nice long break.

The interesting thing though, is the generational surge that is behind the increased demand of so many of the good in our economy -- and yes, I am talking about Millennials. I'm on the cusp myself, right between young Gen X and old Millennial, and supply and demand in higher education, workforce, housing, restaurants, travel, etc, feel NOTICABLY different and tighter than they did when I was in my early 20s. Simply put, there are many more people behind this boom then the last one. So, I suspect, sorry to say, that what it will take for the boom to subside is for stocks to catch up, not for demand to die down, because, again, just guessing here, it won't. There are just too many more people now, unless there is a true shift in tastes over the next few years, which seems unlikely!

[smokinjoe]

The interesting thing though, is the generational surge that is behind the increased demand of so many of the good in our economy -- and yes, I am talking about Millennials. I'm on the cusp myself, right between young Gen X and old Millennial, and supply and demand in higher education, workforce, housing, restaurants, travel, etc, feel NOTICABLY different and tighter than they did when I was in my early 20s. Simply put, there are many more people behind this boom then the last one. So, I suspect, sorry to say, that what it will take for the boom to subside is for stocks to catch up, not for demand to die down, because, again, just guessing here, it won't. There are just too many more people now, unless there is a true shift in tastes over the next few years, which seems unlikely!

Thank you for that thoughtful and insightful post, PB. Your perspective gives much food for thought.

[Old Dusty]

Interesting view polish.bourbon. I have a 22 yr old son. He and his buddies at college are all geeked out on bourbon. Although typically as a cocktail base. But they order Manhattans and Old Fashioneds like there is no tomorrow. They have enjoyed a few neat pours at tailgates and the like(thanks to Old Dusty's traveling stash:cool:). But I imagine they will carry on with the acquired taste for the foreseeable future when they are making buying decisions.

[garbanzobean]

The interesting thing though, is the generational surge that is behind the increased demand of so many of the good in our economy -- and yes, I am talking about Millennials. I'm on the cusp myself, right between young Gen X and old Millennial, and supply and demand in higher education, workforce, housing, restaurants, travel, etc, feel NOTICABLY different and tighter than they did when I was in my early 20s. Simply put, there are many more people behind this boom then the last one. So, I suspect, sorry to say, that what it will take for the boom to subside is for stocks to catch up, not for demand to die down, because, again, just guessing here, it won't. There are just too many more people now, unless there is a true shift in tastes over the next few years, which seems unlikely!

Yeah, I'm on that same cusp, and I have to agree with your post. From the time I turned 21 until about 3 years ago (so about 8 years), I was mostly into craft beer and was satisfied with old forester, knob creek, or woodford reserve on the rocks. As I got a bit older and had to learn to respect the power of the almighty calorie a bit more, I turned to scotch and then bourbon again. My piqued interest in bourbon had nothing to do with other people and/or social media, and everything to do with the application of my curiosity about craft beer to spirits, finding liquor stores with large bourbon selections, and mostly buying a house big enough to build up a decent dragon's hoard. Plenty of people in my generation seem to have done the same, and the interest in southern chic that's been reignited around cities like Louisville and Charleston doesn't seem to have helped.

[dboland]

I wasn't sure if this was worthy of its own thread but it is very related to this discussion: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2015/05/04/401001273/bourbon-empire-reveals-the-smoke-and-mirrors-of-american-whiskey

In the Colonial era, clever advertising preyed on patriotic pride: As war with England threatened the U.S. rum supply — which was being shipped from the British-controlled parts of the Caribbean — whiskey, a spirit made from native-grown grains, began to emerge as the patriotic alternative.

Nowadays, craft and big-brand bourbon alike are still targeting patriotic nostalgia and our tendency to put "small batch" brands — and their historic methods — on a pedestal.

And yet Mitenbuler documents several examples of brands that mislead with exaggerated claims, touting qualities that have no impact on flavor or quality, inventing an historic "face" to define their brand. Still, it may mostly be our own obsession with "craft" that has allowed us to fall prey to craft branding.

[T Comp]

Now my Carnac the Magnificent moment. Don't underestimate the influence and effect of an anti alcohol agenda by health policy officials on eventually tempering the boom. Some recent doom releases:

One to two drinks a day linked to liver disease - "cirrhosis burden caused by alcohol increased by 11.13% when moving from the moderate to heavy daily drinking (up to one drink/day for women; two drinks/day for men) classification (p<.001)." http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-04-alcoholic-day-linked-liver-disease.html

Heavy drinking in U.S. increased sharply since 2005 - "We are seeing some very alarming trends in alcohol overconsumption, especially among women," said Dr. Ali Mokdad, a lead author of the study and professor at IHME." http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-04-heavy-binge-sharply-counties.html

Limited health benefits to alcohol - "Any health benefits from alcohol may be limited to women aged 65 and over - and even then may have been exaggerated by existing studies, suggests research published in The BMJ today." http://medicalxpress.com/news/2015-02-caution-health-benefits-alcohol.html

[TheNovaMan]

"In a Dutch study that compared 997 patients who had various forms of arthritis with 5,877 healthy people, researchers found that drinkers (whether light or heavy) were 69% less likely to develop osteoarthritis and 73 percent less likely to develop rheumatoid arthritis." I don't have a link to the study, but I bet I could dig it up if necessary. For every doom and gloom article about alcohol, there's one about the benefits.

[T Comp]

For every doom and gloom article about alcohol, there's one about the benefits.

Pete, My point as it applies to the boom is not to start comparing studies but rather highlight some very recent (2015) and I would say influential studies. They come close to a zero tolerance or prohibitionist mind set and may have an effect on it. Evolving and centralized health policies do have consequences especially when aging boomers and millennials start paying more attention. Also, when it comes to bourbon, where 1.5 ounces of 80 proof equal one drink.

The first study linked and endorsed by the World Health Organization is specific to one drink for woman two for men ratio being linked to liver disease.

The second study, published in the American Journal of Public Health is defining heavy drinking at what the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines it as "heavy drinking as exceeding an average of one drink per day for women and two drinks per day for men over the past month.".

The third study, published in the British Medical Journal, is urging health professionals to advise there is no health benefits to any amount of alcohol. "In a linked editorial, Professor Mike Daube from Curtin University in Australia, welcomes this study as part of a growing body of evidence that alcohol intake is unlikely to offer any health benefits. He argues that new evidence or health claims, "should be treated with great caution" and health professionals should discourage alcohol intake, even at low levels, for health benefits.

[fishnbowljoe]

Personally, I don't think we've seen the peak of the bourbon boom just quite yet. I do believe we probably will see it peak in the very near future though. Adjustments are being made to try and meet demand, and to try and keep things on as even a keel as possible. I do believe that when it peaks, things will probably level out some, but will be pretty much as they are now. Maybe slightly better.

Distilleries are adding more stills to increase distilling capacity. They're also building more warehouses for additional storage. That's all well and good, but we have to remember that the lead time on bourbon is years, not days or months. I know this sounds kinda dumb, but what the distilleries have aging in their warehouses now, is what they have. And what they have isn't meeting demand. I'm guessing that it will probably be at least a few years before we start seeing any noticeable changes. Maybe then we'll find the selves of our favorite stores with bourbon aplenty once again.

Joe

[The Black Tot]

I'm looking forward to comparing pictures of this fall's Pappy lines vs. 2014's. I think they'll still be big this year, but I don't think they'll be longer. I think they might be slightly shorter.

Unless they drop the drinking age to 5, I don't think there are many more new waves of consumers pushing to get in.

[mosugoji64]

I wasn't sure if this was worthy of its own thread but it is very related to this discussion: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2015/05/04/401001273/bourbon-empire-reveals-the-smoke-and-mirrors-of-american-whiskey

That book sounds like a winner. Nothing we haven't heard before around these parts, but it's good to have that kind of information getting out.

[JvW]

It's too bad that here in Kentucky we are having a hard time getting ETL or WLW12...of course bourbon ought to be shared everywhere, but today was the first day here in my hometown that ETL was available (only 9 bottles total to the buying public in a population of 12,000), but I have been reading that it was available in NC and VA way before (maybe its just a distribution problem)...traveling all the way to Germany in a week to finally pick up my bottle of WLW12, since it not available here.

Jan

[The Black Tot]

Yeah...I shopped Kentucky during the sampler weekend, and you guys are actually doing just fine compared to most of the nation.

The whole nation is generally without ETL - yes, this spring's release is taking time to trickle out, and it's appearing at different times, but I maintain that ETL supplies are going to loosen up, if not in a few months once all the states are rolled out, then in the fall release.

Do you mean Weller 12, or William Larue Weller BTAC? Because if you mean W12, why would you buy that in Germany when a Texan could help you out at home?

If I were you, I'd bring back something unique to Germany, and get some help with W12 domestically.

[TheNovaMan]

Pete, My point as it applies to the boom is not to start comparing studies but rather highlight some very recent (2015) and I would say influential studies. They come close to a zero tolerance or prohibitionist mind set and may have an effect on [the boom]. Evolving and centralized health policies do have consequences especially when aging boomers and millennials start paying more attention. Also, when it comes to bourbon, where 1.5 ounces of 80 proof equal one drink.

[DonutsNBourbon]

ugh, looks like things are still getting worse... EC12 got rid of their age statement on the front of their bottles:

[dcbt]

ugh, looks like things are still getting worse... EC12 got rid of their age statement on the front of their bottles:

[jasmorg1075]

ugh, looks like things are still getting worse... EC12 got rid of their age statement on the front of their bottles:

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[garbanzobean]

whoa...those are barrel proof bottles though. None of my batches have 12 YR on the front only on the back. I'd like to buy some of those looks like 3-4 deep on two rows.

[jasmorg1075]

Check again. Those are the new Small Batch 12 yr (non barrel proof) bottles. They redid the EC12 label to mirror the ECBP label. Apparently they are going to do the same with the 18 and 23 year releases later this year. Which is a shame, I sort of enjoyed the crazy looking EC18+ labels.

Thank you for correcting me. Seeing the pic on a phone is not great and neither is the EC going NAS. It is a shame.

[Kartofel]

It isn't NAS yet, and I'm not going to worry about its age statement until it's actually gone. The Eagle Rare age statement moved to the back and it still seems fine.