Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[Richnimrod]

I agree with Whammie.     And for me, some other brands can have individual tolerances or requirements of ice or water....

Few Bourbons benefit from the addition of ice more than ECBP and Knob 120.   I've had a few private pix of know at 120-proof that really didn't cry out for ice or water; but most take either well, and often (for my mouth anyway) will benefit from water r ice sometimes.    ECBP nearly always seems to be better at a little lower proof, to me.   Other high-proof offerings aren't so easy for me to predict.   Booker's for instance nearly always seems perfectly fine when sipped neat.   GTS is a case-by-case offering with some even into the mid-one-thirties OK sipped neat; but, some at rather lower proofs seem to me to want ice or water.    I had one private pick of Knob 120 from that giant store just south of Cinci (whom I shall not name) that was soo farging HOT that I almost couldn't discern anything, even with several cubes, except HEAT!    ...And, I had one picked locally (within a month of the one I just mentioned) by me and the other regulars for my monger that drank like a 90-roofer; but, with massively more flavor and character.   Go figure!    Other brands are their own story, of course.   WLW rarely has seemed to benefit (for my taste buddies) from water of ice.   So, I gave up trying that route and only sip it neat.

[Anwalt]

On 2/4/2025 at 1:41 AM, Kepler said:

With KC at 120 proof, I find myself wanting to add water more times than not (or an ice cube. which is a last resort for me -- I basically hate ice in my whiskey).

 

I feel ya.

 

I like ice with KC120, OF SiB, and some Bookers. I like my ECBP & SFTB neat.

 

I really, really liked the Baker's 13. Grown up Bookers minus the bite. I did miss the sweetness a bit though.

[0895]

1 hour ago, Anwalt said:

 

I really, really liked the Baker's 13. Grown up Bookers minus the bite. I did miss the sweetness a bit though.

Bakers 13 is probably one of the best Beam products I’ve tried.

It’s so balanced and refined.

[mbroo5880i]

5 hours ago, Anwalt said:

 

I feel ya.

 

I like ice with KC120, OF SiB, and some Bookers. I like my ECBP & SFTB neat.

 

I really, really liked the Baker's 13. Grown up Bookers minus the bite. I did miss the sweetness a bit though.

 

I still remember the night years ago when my boss was buying.  We were attending a training class.  He was drinking beer and I was drinking Bookers.  I matched him 1 for 1.  He had 6 beers.  I had 6 2-oz pours of Bookers.  I won but lost.  The next day he told me "Man, you look to be moving slowly."  However, he then told me "Quite, impressively, you didn't fall asleep in class."  We still laugh about the fact that he only drank 6 beers.  

 

I am going to remind him Monday.

Edited February 9 by mbroo5880i

[Kepler]

10 hours ago, JCwhammie said:

 

I generally agree that KC tastes better to me a little lower than 120. But the reason I like it at that proof is I can put some on a big cube of ice. For the most part KC SIB and ECBP (only sometimes) are the only pours that I put on ice. 

That's a solid take.  I agree with you on that.

[Kepler]

5 hours ago, Anwalt said:

...

I really, really liked the Baker's 13. Grown up Bookers minus the bite. I did miss the sweetness a bit though.

 

4 hours ago, 0895 said:

Bakers 13 is probably one of the best Beam products I’ve tried.

It’s so balanced and refined.

 

Yeah I agree, I really like mine as well.

[smokinjoe]

Tequila sales are falling, too.  An Article from the Robb Report below.  A WSJ headline on it stated “The Tequila Boom is Over.  The tequila price war has begun.”

 

https://robbreport.com/food-drink/spirits/demand-for-tequila-slowing-mexico-surplus-1236142355/

 

Rum is down, also.  
 

https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2024/11/rum-sees-mixed-performance-in-us/

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 9 by smokinjoe

[GeeTen]

On 2/8/2025 at 3:14 PM, Anwalt said:

I really, really liked the Baker's 13. Grown up Bookers minus the bite. I did miss the sweetness a bit though.

 

So, you're out of Baker's 13???  

Edited February 10 by GeeTen

[LW25]

Notorious museum store near me, the type of place that prices RHF and Stagg at $300, JD12 at $400, ORVW 10 at $750...  Anyway, they got a barrel pick of Blanton's last summer.  Priced them at $140. Barely sold 6 cases of it in 6 months.  After New Year's they got in a Blanton's Gold barrel pick, and I was told they priced it at $400.  Very typical for them. 

 

Ran into one of the workers from that store at a gas station yesterday.  Asked her if the owner really expected to sell any Gold at $400...she said they sold exactly 0 bottles in the first 6 weeks they had it.  Last weekend the owner finally dropped the price to $300.  Sold two bottles of it so far, in almost 7 weeks.  Dropped the regular Blanton's pick price to $110 as well and now those are finally starting to sell.  This store has every allocated bottle you can think of, so of course my brain jumps to "Well maybe there's a chance to make a deal here after all these years of secondary pricing..."

She must have sensed the wheels turning, because then she also told me he's got an EHT BP and a Coy Hill behind the register priced at $500 each.   I never thought I'd see the day where this particular owner dropped the price of anything, so maaaaaaaaybe there's a sliver of hope down the road...

[PaulO]

On 2/26/2025 at 10:49 AM, LW25 said:

Notorious museum store near me, the type of place that prices RHF and Stagg at $300, JD12 at $400, ORVW 10 at $750...  Anyway, they got a barrel pick of Blanton's last summer.  Priced them at $140. Barely sold 6 cases of it in 6 months.  After New Year's they got in a Blanton's Gold barrel pick, and I was told they priced it at $400.  Very typical for them. 

 

Ran into one of the workers from that store at a gas station yesterday.  Asked her if the owner really expected to sell any Gold at $400...she said they sold exactly 0 bottles in the first 6 weeks they had it.  Last weekend the owner finally dropped the price to $300.  Sold two bottles of it so far, in almost 7 weeks.  Dropped the regular Blanton's pick price to $110 as well and now those are finally starting to sell.  This store has every allocated bottle you can think of, so of course my brain jumps to "Well maybe there's a chance to make a deal here after all these years of secondary pricing..."

She must have sensed the wheels turning, because then she also told me he's got an EHT BP and a Coy Hill behind the register priced at $500 each.   I never thought I'd see the day where this particular owner dropped the price of anything, so maaaaaaaaybe there's a sliver of hope down the road...

So, does this guy sell other products close to MSRP, just to have some cash coming in.

[LW25]

On 2/27/2025 at 1:04 PM, PaulO said:

So, does this guy sell other products close to MSRP, just to have some cash coming in.

of course the everyday shelfers are at MSRP, but the known allocated stuff is just crazy stupid prices.  I really try very hard to not give him any business anymore because of it, but every now and then he'll have some good stuff out on the shelf that's below MSRP.  My two most recent examples:  he keeps Knob Creek 12 on the shelf for $55 (usually $70+ everywhere) and just a couple weeks ago found 9 yr CS Sagamore Rye for $50 (MSRP is $80).  When he gets ECBP, it's at MSRP.  But if it's on any allocation list at all, automatic full secondary.  And if you're a loyal customer who spends $ in there on regular stuff, your reward is the ability to name (and he'll sell you) any allocated bottle you can think of, for full secondary price.  No discounts to anyone.  

 

This owner has one of the only wholesale licenses in the area, so he sells the to the local bars and restaurants and hotels.  Volume is his #1 game, and pricing VW Lot B at $1200 appears to be his #2 game.  

[PaulO]

As long as you can find some stuff you want at reasonable price, still might be worth checking in once in a while.

That high volume sales to bars and restaurants is 100% why he has access to the hard to find items.

 

I have a couple stores I will cherry pick certain items, ignore most everything else there.

TW clerks shill spirits direct - no thanks.

Payless (should change name) sells regular items near MSRP, but if they think anything just slightly out of the ordinary, oh boy $$$.  I'll buy it somewhere else.

[GeeTen]

10 hours ago, PaulO said:

 

TW clerks shill spirits direct - no thanks.

 

 

[flahute]

[FacePlant]

Once your built in costs rise and rise during the good times, even a small decrease in sales can cost a lot to the bottom line. Patience. 

[ThirstyinOhio]

More bad news in the Bourbon industry…

 

https://www.14news.com/2025/03/11/less-than-30-employees-being-laid-off-green-river-distillery/

[FacePlant]

10 hours ago, ThirstyinOhio said:

More bad news in the Bourbon industry…

 

https://www.14news.com/2025/03/11/less-than-30-employees-being-laid-off-green-river-distillery/

"As part of a strategic effort to position our organization for long term health"

 

The opening statement says a lot. It's no longer about long term growth it's about long term survival. I remember it took about 5-6 years for bourbon to be the end all in the spirits business so it might take several years to unwind also? Will our favorite bottles be on the shelf first or will a reduction in price on staples come first? Only the great Carnack knows and he's no longer with us.  

[Jazz June]

A quick look at the stock prices of essentially the whole whisk(e)y industry doesn't paint a pretty picture. MGP has lost around two thirds of its value in the past six months. Macro-economics, trade wars, and a broader decline in the demand for alcoholic beverages are all moving against the industry. Producers are loathe to cut MSRPs, so my near-term hope is that quality (and age as a proxy for quality) rises across the industry.

 

Retailers are going to have to use price reductions to move inventory though. Barrel picks and a lot of formerly allocated products are now sitting on shelves. During a recent visit to a Total Wine, I saw Elijah Craig 18 and Knob Creek 18 on the normal shelves at or near MSRP and I'm guessing it will take a while for them to sell out. Most of the private groups I know are looking to select less barrels than they did in the past. My group is passing on lots of pick expressions that we bought in the past, albeit at lower prices. With that said, there is still demand for releases that catch consumer attention in some way. For example, the 15+ year old Buffalo Trace distilled/Wild Turkey aged single barrels being offered by a number of NDPs are selling in the $300+ price range, but the yields on these are small. The expressions that the majors sell large numbers of barrels through will likely struggle as supply outstrips demand.

[RWBadley]

Yes, to put this all on the table:

Tariffs and resultant boycotts will quickly (and has already) slashed Bourbon sales worldwide. 

The softening economy within the US will cut sales as well. I think the boom is now over and a contraction is inevitable.

 

Producers can’t help but see this happening and must be plenty nervous about its chilling effect on their sales. 
 

it’s quite sad to see it end in this fashion. A lot of employees within the industry will suffer 

[MM818]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/business/alcohol-tariffs-eu-trump-trade-war/index.html

[RWBadley]

3 minutes ago, MM818 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/business/alcohol-tariffs-eu-trump-trade-war/index.html

Indeed it’s true

However, if the EU boycotts US whiskey purchases out of objection to Trump/Musk behaviors, it seems pointless to tariff further expecting better results. 

[Kepler]

It's ridiculous to suggest that tariffs have anything to do with this.  This is simply a classic boom-and-bust situation. The bubble inevitably bursts.  Everyone knew this day would come.  This thread was created in 2015 (which was during the Obama administration).

[MM818]

Does anyone have an accurate number for Bourbon exports? I’ve seen anywhere from $799M to $1.4B annually. 
 

 

[markandrex]

1 hour ago, MM818 said:

Does anyone have an accurate number for Bourbon exports? I’ve seen anywhere from $799M to $1.4B annually. 
 

 

That variance may be due to Anwalt’s travel.

[smokinjoe]

50 minutes ago, markandrex said:

That variance may be due to Anwalt’s travel.

Heehee!