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Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked


BigBoldBully

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Fascinating podcast - I consider myself a numbers guy as far as taking things into consideration, being swayed.

Dave and Chuck give plenty of specific examples.  🤔

 

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Thanks for posting that, very interesting.  As someone who runs a barrel pick group, the dynamics are changing quite a bit. Distilleries are reaching out more whereas before it was harder to get a response back about buying barrels. And members of groups are definitely being more selective about purchases. 

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On 9/26/2024 at 10:50 AM, Jazz June said:

Thanks for posting that, very interesting.  As someone who runs a barrel pick group, the dynamics are changing quite a bit. Distilleries are reaching out more whereas before it was harder to get a response back about buying barrels. And members of groups are definitely being more selective about purchases. 

@smokinjoe - now's the time to push them Sazerac folks around (if they're super-nice, the GBS might pick a barrel of Weller Full Proof ;))

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If private store pricing is a direct indicator of the bubble bursting, then I can confidently say that the bubble is still growing in my parts of the country.  I love hunting in new stores, so I found myself wandering off the interstate to "Discount Spirits" yesterday based on a quick "LS around me" google map search.  

 

Immediately entering the store I took 3 steps and saw a glass case with about 12 bottles in it.  Front and center was an ETL for $500, a Stagg Jr. for $400, and an EHT Small Batch for $300.  I just spun a 180, reached for the door and bolted. 

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10 hours ago, LW25 said:

If private store pricing is a direct indicator of the bubble bursting, then I can confidently say that the bubble is still growing in my parts of the country.  I love hunting in new stores, so I found myself wandering off the interstate to "Discount Spirits" yesterday based on a quick "LS around me" google map search.  

 

Immediately entering the store I took 3 steps and saw a glass case with about 12 bottles in it.  Front and center was an ETL for $500, a Stagg Jr. for $400, and an EHT Small Batch for $300.  I just spun a 180, reached for the door and bolted. 

Listen to the podcast.

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20 hours ago, LW25 said:

If private store pricing is a direct indicator of the bubble bursting, then I can confidently say that the bubble is still growing in my parts of the country.  I love hunting in new stores, so I found myself wandering off the interstate to "Discount Spirits" yesterday based on a quick "LS around me" google map search.  

 

Immediately entering the store I took 3 steps and saw a glass case with about 12 bottles in it.  Front and center was an ETL for $500, a Stagg Jr. for $400, and an EHT Small Batch for $300.  I just spun a 180, reached for the door and bolted. 

Liquor store pricing has been and will continue to be all over the place. But secondary pricing on the lower and middle  level BT products is down significantly (30-50%).

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The podcast was excellent. I've been hearing the same thing from people in adjacent businesses.

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It was an excellent podcast.  Sorry, but it's not like everyone didn't know this moment was coming.  If you recntly invested very much in future barrels, then it's not surprising that you're going to lose your ass.

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My favorite line from the podcast was from the host.  He said:  "There aren't enough livers in America to process this bourbon"

 

Lol that pretty much sums it up.  Is he talking about us and our bunkers, SB community?  😜

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Was chatting with another patron at my barbershop this past week about cocktail; he's a guy who has been "getting into bourbon" over the last year or so - couple hundred bottles.  Was sharing his favorites (several I hadn't even heard of) and then threw in "And I just tried this Heaven Hill BIB the other day - wow, a handle for under $30 and it's pretty damned good!"  He wasn't sure if I was pulling his leg when I told him you used to get HH6yr BIB for $14 a bottle.  He thought I was talking about the 90s :lol: When more of these guys discover that the big boys make pretty good product, many of these smaller producers are going to be hurting bad - if they make it.

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Great podcast.  Probably the reason why my local store has almost completely quit doing barrel picks.  Two years ago a 4 Roses Barrel Strength pick would sell out in two weeks.  Today, he's still got a dozen cases left of an Elijah Craig 127 proof 9 year pick leftover from November last year.  

 

Spoke with another store owner about two weeks ago and he said according to his rep, Willett is having a hard time finding stores willing to do a WFE Purple Top pick.  Nobody wants to shell out ~$70k per barrel, wait 6 months, then have to sell $500 bottles of whiskey to try and make $20k profit. 

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On 10/8/2024 at 12:19 PM, LW25 said:

Great podcast.  Probably the reason why my local store has almost completely quit doing barrel picks.  Two years ago a 4 Roses Barrel Strength pick would sell out in two weeks.  Today, he's still got a dozen cases left of an Elijah Craig 127 proof 9 year pick leftover from November last year.  

 

Spoke with another store owner about two weeks ago and he said according to his rep, Willett is having a hard time finding stores willing to do a WFE Purple Top pick.  Nobody wants to shell out ~$70k per barrel, wait 6 months, then have to sell $500 bottles of whiskey to try and make $20k profit. 

Not surprised about Willett. They were always going to test the upper limit of what the market would bear and would eventually find the peak. That day may be here. 

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Talked to my LS manager the other day who has a barrel pick members club. You have to buy "x" amount of barrel picks throughout the year to have exclusive access to the LE's (at retail). This program has worked well for a few years, but he's thinking about junking it because the demand seems to be waning and he may have too many barrels in the pipeline, especially from smaller distillers and independent bottlers.  He may just ride out the current and already ordered barrels, and then curtail the barrels to only top sellers like FR, WT, BT etc.

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I wonder how Kentucky Owl will fair. Their prices never made any sense and tons of it sits on shelves.

Edited by mal00768
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5 hours ago, mal00768 said:

I wonder how Kentucky Owl will fair. Their prices never made any sense and tons of it sits on shelves.

 

Hoo? JK.

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I was out of the office today running work errands.  Obviously, there were liquor stores on my route.  😮  I stopped at an old standby only to find it had been bought out by another emerging local chain. 😕

 

I stopped by another old stand by but opted to not go in when I saw several older guys riding kids bicycles going in the store.  😀

 

I stopped by a normally reasonably priced grocery which has a good selection...Meijer.  The price on every bottle was 5-10% higher than last week. 🙁  I noticed the regular price on the shelf tag was higher than before as was the "sale" price.  It seems like every bottle they have is always on "sale." 😀

 

I was talking with several newer bourbon enthusiasts at work and they are still on the big hunt.  They have photo albums of bourbon bottles on their cell phones. 

 

I don't believe the market has peaked and won't until we convince the taters that expensive wine is where the action is.

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7 hours ago, mbroo5880i said:

I was out of the office today running work errands.  Obviously, there were liquor stores on my route.  😮  I stopped at an old standby only to find it had been bought out by another emerging local chain. 😕

 

I stopped by another old stand by but opted to not go in when I saw several older guys riding kids bicycles going in the store.  😀

 

I stopped by a normally reasonably priced grocery which has a good selection...Meijer.  The price on every bottle was 5-10% higher than last week. 🙁  I noticed the regular price on the shelf tag was higher than before as was the "sale" price.  It seems like every bottle they have is always on "sale." 😀

 

I was talking with several newer bourbon enthusiasts at work and they are still on the big hunt.  They have photo albums of bourbon bottles on their cell phones. 

 

I don't believe the market has peaked and won't until we convince the taters that expensive wine is where the action is.

The local store around here is still getting plenty of "new barrel pics" in as well.  On their facebook page they have touted how many barrel pics they've done in the last year (not all bourbon/rye but the majority) versus 10 years ago. I haven't talked to the owner, but I have noticed the 'sale shelf' has had more bottles (I picked up some Stellum Black which I really like but thought it was overpriced at $90+; but at $60 I'm a buyer).  My guess is that as long as he's able to hype the "specialness" of their pics and move them, he'll keep buying them (and be happy about getting a discount).  And maybe just do a few less if he sees sales slow. 
I expect that some stores may have 'peaked' while others have not - and may not for a while.  I wasn't drinking when the last glut happened, but it wasn't even a single year.  I just hope that the end of the madness is within sight!  

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14 hours ago, mbroo5880i said:

I was out of the office today running work errands.  Obviously, there were liquor stores on my route.  😮  I stopped at an old standby only to find it had been bought out by another emerging local chain. 😕

 

I stopped by another old stand by but opted to not go in when I saw several older guys riding kids bicycles going in the store.  😀

 

I stopped by a normally reasonably priced grocery which has a good selection...Meijer.  The price on every bottle was 5-10% higher than last week. 🙁  I noticed the regular price on the shelf tag was higher than before as was the "sale" price.  It seems like every bottle they have is always on "sale." 😀

 

I was talking with several newer bourbon enthusiasts at work and they are still on the big hunt.  They have photo albums of bourbon bottles on their cell phones. 

 

I don't believe the market has peaked and won't until we convince the taters that expensive wine is where the action is.

Is Meijer a tater now?

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I stopped by a bakery yesterday morning that is next door to my preferred LLS. There were people waiting by the door for the liquor store to open. I didn’t bother asking what they were waiting for, because I realized I didn’t care. 

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8 hours ago, jvd99 said:

Is Meijer a tater now?

 

The local Meijer is in an upscale area of Indy and often has some higher priced mid-shelf stuff that some of the nearby liquor stores don't.  They get a fair amount of BT and ER, that latter of which rarely shows up in liquor stores.  They do get some allocated bottles so it is all about timing.  I included them as an example that rising prices reflects while the boom may be waning for higher end NDP stuff, it won't be over until the taters go home.

 

Costco is even crazier.  One local Costco has their bourbon drop on Wednesdays.  It is nothing to see 10 to 20 shoppers just hanging out in the liquor aisle waiting for the guy to come out with the cart containing that week's goodies.  They start lining up right when the store opens.  Never in my wildest dreams have I ever thought about camping out in the liquor aisle at Costco.  I just happened upon it one week and thought WTF?

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I can corroborate mbroo5880i's report on Meijer.  Since my last couple visits to the Greenwood location, I have definitely noticed higher prices on any liquor I might consider.  

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Chuck shared this on facebook and thought this group would find it interesting (article in Beverage Dynamics).

"There’s too many producers innovating with too many products while consumers have pulled back in spending. These consumers increasingly prefer a handful of favorite bottles rather than experimenting across brands. Industry growth has leveled off at a time when many suppliers have significantly expanded production. Other, trendier categories — tequila, no/low alc, THC drinks — have siphoned off consumer attention and spending. The American Craft Spirits Association reported last month that U.S. craft spirits sales are now in decline."
The State of American Whiskey in 2024

 

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On 10/11/2024 at 4:49 AM, GaryT said:

The local store around here is still getting plenty of "new barrel pics" in as well.  On their facebook page they have touted how many barrel pics they've done in the last year (not all bourbon/rye but the majority) versus 10 years ago. I haven't talked to the owner, but I have noticed the 'sale shelf' has had more bottles (I picked up some Stellum Black which I really like but thought it was overpriced at $90+; but at $60 I'm a buyer).  My guess is that as long as he's able to hype the "specialness" of their pics and move them, he'll keep buying them (and be happy about getting a discount).  And maybe just do a few less if he sees sales slow. 
I expect that some stores may have 'peaked' while others have not - and may not for a while.  I wasn't drinking when the last glut happened, but it wasn't even a single year.  I just hope that the end of the madness is within sight!  

 

Gary, funny you should mention Stellum.  I picked up some Stellum store picks for 1/2 price earlier in the year.  They were really good but certainly not worth the original price.  I would grab more if they were still available.

Edited by mbroo5880i
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17 hours ago, GaryT said:

Chuck shared this on facebook and thought this group would find it interesting (article in Beverage Dynamics).

"There’s too many producers innovating with too many products while consumers have pulled back in spending. These consumers increasingly prefer a handful of favorite bottles rather than experimenting across brands. Industry growth has leveled off at a time when many suppliers have significantly expanded production. Other, trendier categories — tequila, no/low alc, THC drinks — have siphoned off consumer attention and spending. The American Craft Spirits Association reported last month that U.S. craft spirits sales are now in decline."
The State of American Whiskey in 2024

 

 

I miss the days when Chuck was more regular in the forums.  He may be crotchety but he knows his ...ish and is always a great read. A legend and deservedly so.

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