A Survey of the Current NDP Bourbon Market

[Jazz June]

There has been a lot of discussion of the merits of NDPs in various threads in recent months and I thought a more consolidated thread could be useful.

 

There appear to be three primary sources for NDP bourbon: (1) unidentified Kentucky distilleries, (2) George Dickel, and (3) MGP. I have left rye out of this thread so as to void complicating this aspect with the Canadian sourced ryes.

 

While not identified on bottles, the typically cited Kentucky distilleries for sources of NDP whiskey are Barton, Beam, Heaven Hill, and Brown-Forman. There are a couple of NDP bottles that supposedly came from Wild Turkey and the days of solely Four Roses distilled Bulleit are mostly behind us, so I have left these distilleries out of further discussion. I'm not aware of Woodford Reserve, Buffalo Trace, Maker's Mark, or Jack Daniels supplying any significant amount of whiskey to current NDP releases, but if you know of some, please do tell.

 

A common, and I believe logical and accurate, complaint about NDP whiskey is that it must cost more than distiller brand whiskey because the NDP and any involved brokers must add their cut to the cost. The modern primogenitor of such bottlings, Willett, has largely moved away from bottling whiskey made by other people, save for the occasional gift shop release or charity pick of sourced WFE. Julian obviously doesn't need to hunt for sourced bourbon anymore. But when those guys were doing those things, they were providing something that the "big guys" largely were not: high aged and high proof bourbon. The market was also flooded with aged whiskey for decent prices. Of course, now everyone is trying to offer these things and the market is incredibly tight for aged bourbon. In addition to Van Winkle, the Age International brands are also technically NDP, but seeing as they have been made at the same known place as when they weren't NDP brands, I don't really count them.

 

Given these economics, there are quite a few NDPs aiming at the high end of the market. Things like Michter's 20/25, Blade & Bow 22, some of the Orphan Barrel releases, Olde St. Nick, Kentucky Owl, Old Carter, and Angel's Envy cask strength all reside in the highly limited and highly expensive section of the bourbon market. Many of these releases win high praise from online reviewers, but aren't often consumed by everyday drinkers. I am skeptical  to highly skeptical of many of these, although I will say that an age statement does at least give some justification for the price. If you can taste them first then sure, you can make an informed decision. Otherwise, you are taking an expensive gamble and personally, I'm unlikely to gamble on such releases. That said, some of my friends are big fans of some of these brands and seem very happy with the results of buying them, even at $200, $300, and up prices.

 

After this tier are the expensive, but more reasonable KY sourced NDPs: Calumet, Bardstown Bourbon Company, Jefferson's, Sam Houston, age stated Rebel Yell, Blood Oath, etc. The string of 15 year KY sourced bourbon releases was an interesting situation with a wide variety of proofs, price points, and quality spread among different brands despite the likely common source of the whiskey. I have had pours from a number of these brands and while good, none of them inspired me to purchase. I do wonder if an anti-NDP bias is leading me to pass on what is otherwise a reasonable value for a higher end bourbon. I am interested to hear more thoughts on this section of the market, as I think a lot of you are swimming in these waters and finding them quite fine.

 

Bringing things down to the more ordinary top and even middle shelves, Bulleit is of course a huge buyer and seller of KY made bourbon. Given their needs, they seem to buy from almost anyone who is selling. Diageo also has Blade & Bow and IW Harper to supply. While Diageo is a big dog and can bring prices down (Total Wine has handles of Bulleit for $40 and while I don't really like Diageo, I must admit it's pretty decent bourbon), I'm not sure other NDPs can compete very well in this tier against the distiller brands. Elijah Craig SmB and Wild Turkey 101 are pretty stiff competition when you look at age/proof/quality against the price.

 

Now, for some of the bourbons discussed above, the sources are pretty well-established, Michter's was sourcing from Brown-Forman, Luxco was sourcing from Heaven Hill, some people are pretty up front about their whiskey coming from Barton (including lots of store brands for Total Wine, Costco, etc.). In those cases, you can make a pretty direct comparison to the distiller's own equivalent products. Michter's versus Elijah Craig, Rebel Yell versus Larceny, etc. I will say that there are a significant number of higher aged Barton sourced products, where Barton itself only has the 1792 Aged 12 Years, which is under 100 proof. For example, a group I'm in just got a pick in of a likely Barton sourced bourbon bottled at cask strength and 14 years old. There isn't really a comparable Sazerac owned brand release with Barton whiskey to compare that to.

 

This aspect is where I think there is a real disconnect in discussion on the board sometimes. Some people think of all NDP whiskey as "mystery" whiskey and wonder how they can trust an NDP brand to taste the same from one release to the next. Others believe that the source of the brand's whiskey is well-established and like the combination of age/proof/quality and price offered by said brand. And as I noted, sometimes there really isn't a distiller expression that is comparable to the age/proof combination of the NDP release. But this aspect is the second key issue (after price) for NDPs: transparency. Those that have been transparent have been able to win significant followings among enthusiasts. Some less transparent NDP brands may get over on the general public for some time, but us bourbon nerds will be all over them. Transparency can be limited by NDAs, but I think an NDP can still strive to (and succeed in) be sufficiently transparent that a consumer can trust their products. Maybe Smooth Ambler didn't shout from the hilltops when Old Scout moved from MGP distillate to Dickel, but they did put a clear differentiator on the label (besides the state of distillation). That way, those who know what they are looking at and care could quickly tell which was which. For me, that builds trust and I respect Smooth Ambler and am glad to buy their whiskey. Barrel picks can also be a way to very clearly establish a source and allow you to taste first, which is why nearly all of the NDP whiskeys on my shelves at this point are private picks.

 

Barrell is an interesting case in that they often blend KY, IN, and TN whiskey to good effect (according to many, I have tried few of their products). Bardstown Bourbon Company is also doing some of this and, again, blending skill at least offers some explanation for why you should pay more. The sum could be more than the whole of its parts and this is something that the "majors" are not doing.

 

There is a ton of Tennessee sourced NDP bourbon out there, often with good age statements. The conventional wisdom is that this is all sourced from Dickel. I don't particularly like Dickel, so I avoid these, but Dickel/Tennessee whiskey fans, please chime in with your thoughts on NDP releases versus Dickel branded releases. I have read that some of these NDP releases were essentially experimental Dickel barrels (and thus different from Dickel branded releases) and I have also heard rumors that Dickel barrels that did not go through the LCP can be had, but don't know enough to speak knowledgeably to these things.

 

MGP remains an important source of NDP whiskey, but there is already a recent thread about it (straightbourbon.com/community/topic/28608-where-to-start-with-mgp-bourbons/) and this post is already, shall we say long-winded. However, please feel free to add to that part of the discussion here as well.

[Anwalt]

40 minutes ago, Jazz June said:

There has been a lot of discussion of the merits of NDPs in various threads in recent months and I thought a more consolidated thread could be useful.

 

Wonderful piece.  Thank you for taking the time.  I'll need to absorb it.

[TunnelTiger]

Excellent observations. I seldom purchase a NDP as in most cases they are over-priced (IMHO). Now SA and Pepper rye are most excellent.

[flahute]

This is an excellent summary of the current state of NDPs.

[fishnbowljoe]

Nicely done @Jazz June.

 

Biba! Joe

[Jazz June]

Thanks guys, although I note a few mistakes/errors in the post (it seems I can no longer edit it). Michter's would be compared to Old Forester, not Elijah Craig. And apparently I transposed the saying about a whole being more than the sum of its parts. Oh well.

 

More importantly, does anyone have any thoughts/observations/whatever to add? I 'm certain that some of you (all of you?) know stuff that I don't about NDP whiskey.  

 

In response to @TunnelTiger, agreed on Smooth Ambler. Here in VA, James E. Pepper rye is $30 for 100 proof MGP rye that is at least four years old. That is very competitive. I buy Bulleit rye for my MGP rye mixer, but that of course is only 90 proof. Even a good value distiller brand like baby Sazerac is $30 for 90 proof. VA doesn't carry the Rossville Union brand (MGP's in house rye brand) as far as I know, but even when I have seen it other places, it's typically $35-40. I'd agree that for MGP rye, NDPs can be quite competitive. Diageo's Dickel rye is another MGP distilled rye in this range.

 

NDPs also bottle Canadian rye at higher ages and proofs than nearly all of the distiller brand Canadian whiskeys I have seen here in the U.S. So maybe I'd generalize and say that for rye whiskey, the NDPs are a more helpful force in the market. This is part of why I attempted to limit the conversation to bourbon, because I think the analysis on NDPs is different between bourbon and rye. But nonetheless, thanks for your thoughts!

[LCWoody]

One of the reasons that we are seeing some good age stated NDPs has to do with flavor profile. I think, Barton for example, has only so many name brands they put out and dont want to go through the process and money to create another line (that they would have to keep up with). Their are so many new start ups that would love to put out a 14, 15, or 16y bourbon to get their name out in the bourbon world, that Barton can sell it to them still make the money and be done with it. 

I think Barrell Bourbon is the best at getting off profile barrels that dont really go with anything and blending them (like a great master blender can do) to make something really good bourbon.

[mbroo5880i]

Great discussion topic @Jazz June!  I can only speak from my personal perspective and experience.  I have no bias against NDPs.  For me, it is all about price, value and availability.  I also prefer to know the state(s) of origin.  If distilled in IN or KY, I have a pretty good idea of possible sources.  However, those are the same hurdles applied to known producers.  Its what's in the bottle that counts.

[PaulO]

I don't know if Lux Row is putting any of their own make into Rebel, but it still tastes like HH Old Fitz to me.  That's a good thing.  The irony is - HH discontinues the NAS (4 year) Old Fitz BIB and brought us Larceny.  Larceny sounds good on paper - a vat of different ages of Old Fitz barrels, bottled at 90 something proof.  The problem is in the execution.  I gave up after deciding it was inconsistent and most of the batches didn't taste good to me. 

So in this case, I give the nod to the NDP brand.

As to rye, there are several companies that do a decent job with the MGP 95% rye.

Where NDPs do not offer value is when they bottle 2 or 3 year old juice at 80 proof.  I'm looking at you TW Spirits Direct.  At that point, you're just buying alcohol.

 

[flahute]

13 hours ago, PaulO said:

I don't know if Lux Row is putting any of their own make into Rebel,

 

Not yet.

[Jazzhead]

I tend to operate in the NDP market in one discrete corner - MGP bourbons.    For the  Kentucky distilleries,  I give 'em my business;  the 1792 series is Barton done right and I wish it were easier to find.   I haven't yet gone near a Calumet Farms.   

 

But I do scratch my MGP itch.    Smoke Wagon,  Belle Meade,  Old Scout,  Tumbling Dice,   Redemption;  I've scratched it good and hard.  

[Old Hippie]

Enjoyed the read and really appreciate the thought, time and effort put into it.

Like most things for me, there are very few absolutes in the whiskey bidness. If it is well made and reasonably priced I will buy it. As you said, transparency makes that "to buy or not to buy" decision easier and quicker.

Much of this could be solved if we went the route of Tequila and had the bottle carry a DSP number of the distillery that produced it. 

[berto]

As a consumer it’s difficult given the wide price variation between MGP sourced products.  Why are two bottles with similar stats priced $30 apart?  Am I being asked to pay more because someone got to choose from better barrels?  Did they buy low and now they’re selling high?  Did they age at their own place?  Were they without an “in” so they got charged more and are passing it along?  Are they taking profit on a whimsical story or charging more due to their ad agency bills or positioning themselves at a more premium tier?  It’s wild and I’ve generally stayed away.  Part is my newfound restraint overall but it’s also being unwilling to spend on a not sure thing.

[B.B. Babington]

1 hour ago, berto said:

As a consumer it’s difficult given the wide price variation between MGP sourced products.  Why are two bottles with similar stats priced $30 apart?  ...

 

you know it's the quality.  If costs 3x the bucks must be 3x better.   

[flahute]

6 hours ago, berto said:

As a consumer it’s difficult given the wide price variation between MGP sourced products.  Why are two bottles with similar stats priced $30 apart?  Am I being asked to pay more because someone got to choose from better barrels?  Did they buy low and now they’re selling high?  Did they age at their own place?  Were they without an “in” so they got charged more and are passing it along?  Are they taking profit on a whimsical story or charging more due to their ad agency bills or positioning themselves at a more premium tier?  It’s wild and I’ve generally stayed away.  Part is my newfound restraint overall but it’s also being unwilling to spend on a not sure thing.

Totally agree and is why I mostly stay away. My recent capitulation for Calumet is for two reasons. One, BigRich. vouched for it. Two, they list the mashbill on the label so we know it's Barton. 14 and 15 yr old bourbons at those prices is very acceptable if it's good which it is. I still mostly stay away however. 

[bayouredd]

6 hours ago, flahute said:

Totally agree and is why I mostly stay away. My recent capitulation for Calumet is for two reasons. One, BigRich. vouched for it. Two, they list the mashbill on the label so we know it's Barton. 14 and 15 yr old bourbons at those prices is very acceptable if it's good which it is. I still mostly stay away however. 

I mostly stay away also, but I have been around SB long enough to "align my palate" with a few people folks here, as your example with BigRich shows. This is what makes this forum so worthwhile. Sure I have ventured out on my own a bit, but SBers tend to help with my decisions a large % of the time. Sometime you have to read between the lines and that's ok too...

[Anwalt]

48 minutes ago, bayouredd said:

I mostly stay away also, but I have been around SB long enough to "align my palate" with a few people folks here, as your example with BigRich shows. This is what makes this forum so worthwhile. Sure I have ventured out on my own a bit, but SBers tend to help with my decisions a large % of the time. Sometime you have to read between the lines and that's ok too...

 

Indeed.  My judgment has improved by borrowing from that of SB members.

[BigRich]

10 hours ago, flahute said:

Totally agree and is why I mostly stay away. My recent capitulation for Calumet is for two reasons. One, BigRich. vouched for it. Two, they list the mashbill on the label so we know it's Barton. 14 and 15 yr old bourbons at those prices is very acceptable if it's good which it is. I still mostly stay away however. 

I think the other reason why this one caught me (aside from taste) is that the value proposition is most reminiscent of single malt scotch independent bottlers.  So many IBs came up in the by gone era when most distillers weren't releasing their product. Or if they did, not in a variety of expressions.  So to get something more unique or otherwise unavailable, an independent bottler like Gordan & MacPhail or Douglas Laing would be your only option.  What Calumet and Sam Houston are doing with Barton to me is very similar.  13+ year aged cask strength bourbon isn't something that Sazerac is doing with Barton. So it is an opportunity try that different expression for what I consider a reasonable price for the 14 and 15 years.  Someone previously said of these bourbons in another thread "if this was released by Sazerac as a new member of the BTAC line, we'd happily line up to pay the Calumet pricing or more."  I completely agree with that logic and the whiskey stands on it's own merit to support the price.  I would prefer it if the distillery was listed, like with IB single malt scotch.  But the mashbill is basically the decoder ring as Steve mentioned.

 

Now more most of the rest of NDPs?  Over priced bullshit that holds no interest for me.   But all these new entrants don't necessarily have the cash flow to hold these purchased barrels, curate their aging, and release them as better whiskeys like their scotch IB forbearers.    

[IamMatt]

On 5/31/2022 at 5:01 PM, berto said:

 Am I being asked to pay more because someone got to choose from better barrels?

On a super-simple level, yes.  Better barrels, better whiskey, higher price.  An example might be Knob Creek single barrels, where every store pick I have had is markedly better than the generic KC SiB.  Often the picks are $10 more than the generic,  In my experience they are worth it.  If the picks were bottled under a different name, the comparison would still hold true.  The same reasoning should  apply whether it is a distillery-branded produced or an NDP product.

 

And back to the original post, some NDP products are cheaper than their equivalent distillery brands,  Costco's Kirkland 1792 bottles are a good example; all three expressions (SmB, BIB, SiB) are cheaper than their 1792 equivalents.  And all three taste a bit different from the equivalent 1792 bottles when I have compared them. 

 

I think we want to guard against getting "overcharged" for an NDP product when we can get its exact equal as a distillery brand at a lower price, but I am not sure there are many examples of the EXACT same product being sold as two different brands with two different prices.  I have read that EW BIB, JTS Brown BIB and Dant BIB are all the same, but most reviewers I have seen do not find them identical.  The closest distillery brand/NDP comparison I have found in my limited experience is how similar Kirkland 1792 BIB tasted to VOB 100 (but less similar to 1792 BIB).

 

I think there is a danger from hyped bourbon brands/prices whether NDP or not.  No small number of reviewers think that the higher priced Beam offerings and McKenna BIB are overpriced for what you get, the same complaint we hear about some NDP products.  That's why I like to try before I buy, and I like to do blinds so all that matters is how much I like the whiskey, not who made it.

 

But what do I know?

 

 

[Jazzhead]

Another good comparison of NDP vs. similar distillery offerings are the various Lux Row bottlings of Heaven Hill's standard rye bourbon mashbill.

[hughewil]

Maybe someone can answer something I never understood.

 

If Michter's for example sources their whiskey from an outside distillery, why do they have their own stills?  Do they source just some of their products and distill their own of others?  how do you tell which ones are sourced and which iss theiur own juice?

[Jazz June]

57 minutes ago, hughewil said:

Maybe someone can answer something I never understood.

 

If Michter's for example sources their whiskey from an outside distillery, why do they have their own stills?  Do they source just some of their products and distill their own of others?  how do you tell which ones are sourced and which iss theiur own juice?

They source until their own distillate reaches the right age for release. Barrel heads are marked so they know what is what. Some places source some brands and self distilled others.

[flahute]

12 hours ago, hughewil said:

Maybe someone can answer something I never understood.

 

If Michter's for example sources their whiskey from an outside distillery, why do they have their own stills?  Do they source just some of their products and distill their own of others?  how do you tell which ones are sourced and which iss theiur own juice?

Look at the fine print on the label. If it says "distilled by" then you know. If it says "produced by" or "bottled by" without any mention of distillation then it's sourced.

Except for the older age stated stuff, the Michter's sourced product comes from Brown Forman (Old Forester).

[PhantomLamb]

On 6/7/2022 at 11:11 AM, IamMatt said:

On a super-simple level, yes.  Better barrels, better whiskey, higher price.  An example might be Knob Creek single barrels, where every store pick I have had is markedly better than the generic KC SiB.  Often the picks are $10 more than the generic,  In my experience they are worth it.  If the picks were bottled under a different name, the comparison would still hold true.  The same reasoning should  apply whether it is a distillery-branded produced or an NDP product.

 

And back to the original post, some NDP products are cheaper than their equivalent distillery brands,  Costco's Kirkland 1792 bottles are a good example; all three expressions (SmB, BIB, SiB) are cheaper than their 1792 equivalents.  And all three taste a bit different from the equivalent 1792 bottles when I have compared them. 

 

I think we want to guard against getting "overcharged" for an NDP product when we can get its exact equal as a distillery brand at a lower price, but I am not sure there are many examples of the EXACT same product being sold as two different brands with two different prices.  I have read that EW BIB, JTS Brown BIB and Dant BIB are all the same, but most reviewers I have seen do not find them identical.  The closest distillery brand/NDP comparison I have found in my limited experience is how similar Kirkland 1792 BIB tasted to VOB 100 (but less similar to 1792 BIB).

 

I think there is a danger from hyped bourbon brands/prices whether NDP or not.  No small number of reviewers think that the higher priced Beam offerings and McKenna BIB are overpriced for what you get, the same complaint we hear about some NDP products.  That's why I like to try before I buy, and I like to do blinds so all that matters is how much I like the whiskey, not who made it.

 

But what do I know?

 

 

Agree to some of this but the barrel picks being “better” is not always true, depends on who is picking.

 

Apparently, barrel picks used to be even cheaper than the standard issue in some areas due to fear over whether people would like the profile selected or not.

 

IMO, this has just become another “tater-ish” practice to price hike even more. 
 

But same, what do I know?

[PaulO]

11 hours ago, PhantomLamb said:

Agree to some of this but the barrel picks being “better” is not always true, depends on who is picking.

 

Apparently, barrel picks used to be even cheaper than the standard issue in some areas due to fear over whether people would like the profile selected or not.

 

IMO, this has just become another “tater-ish” practice to price hike even more. 
 

But same, what do I know?

Indeed, in the good old days a store got a volume discount for buying a whole barrel.  Also, they suddenly had a lot of extra inventory to move, so passed savings onto us by a special price of a buck or two discount.

 

My experience with the legacy distillers is they tend to make a consistent product barrel to barrel.