A. H. Hirsch 20 yo

[mgilbertva]

Less than one day left! Who made the right call? Who will grab the honors for The Best Hirsch 20 Yr Sale Price Predictor in the Under/Over category??

Stay tuned!

[bluesbassdad]

I'm with you.

Before going on record I checked the comments in the seller's feedback, just on the possibility I might learn that s/he's an experienced seller of high-priced liquor. That does not appear to be the case. He's a buyer on the first few dozen transactions I looked at.

I have little experience in auctions or in sales, in general. I wonder which strategy has the best chance of producing a sale at a price never paid before. One could hope for the thrill of competition to do the trick, or one could hope that someone with abundant cash and no sense of the item's value will assume it must be worth the asking price just because someone is asking it. I guess it never hurts to try.

Not that there's any way to know (assuming you and I turn out to be right), but I predict the maximum selling price would be $250-300.

Yours truly,

Dave Morefield

[jsgorman]

If I were the seller, I'd have put the starting bid at $300 - maybe even set a minimum acceptable bid at $400. Putting a $500 starting bid is silly - unless this person would only part with this gem at $500.

Eventually, I see this bottle hitting $500 on a regular basis. It was pretty limited and considered to be among the best bourbons ever produced. If this were a limited Macallan or Springbank, $500 wouldn't be a problem. And, unlike the 16YO - there aren't multiple editions to focus on. However, bourbon doesn't have as strong of an International following - yet.

[Night Gallery]

Sold! - $520.00 w shipping and handling.

[mgilbertva]

Aaarrgghhhh! I can't believe it sold. I was so confident, so certain I would win, but luv2hunt called it wins this round. :smiley_acbt:

Good call, Dawn!

[bluesbassdad]

Wow!

Needless to say, I am amazed -- on two points.

It sold for over $500, and Dawn called it with no hedging whatsover.

Part of me still refuses to believe it. If another one is offered in a few days, also at $500, I will be more than a little suspicious that someone has been salting the mine.

Yours truly,

Dave Morefield

[luv2hunt]

harmonyhill.....anybody know him? Probably not willing to share a bottle at that price!! I bought 8 bottles of Four Roses Single Barrel Limited Edition Barrel Strength this weekend for less money than his one bottle! (Not all mine to keep...)

Dawn

[barturtle]

The thing to remember is that that's not the most we've ever noted a bottle of bourbon going for on ebay (seems there was a $600 bottle of Old Fitz) These rare bottles will just keep going up as time goes by. Yes there are some scotches that have been auctioned for more (hell some have retailed for more) but those auctions are usually done by well respected auction houses that offer guarantees and such that what you bought is the real deal.

Give it enough time and mostof us will buy some bottle of bourbon at that price...few people would have parted with more than $5 a bottle not all that long ago.

[OscarV]

I am not suprised it sold.

However, I am suprised there was just one bid.

I wonder what his maximum was.

As far as an investment goes it could be a good one.

At 15% per year compounded for five years comes to $1005.66.

It could sell for that in 2012, if not sooner.

But then again, if Wall Street could repeat days like today then I'd drink that thousand dollar bottle of bourbon.

[Special Reserve]

Oscar,

I would like to get 15% annual return on my investments every year for 5 years.

What do you know that I don't?

Will

[Barrel_Proof]

BevMo is down to its last two bottles of A.H. Hirsch 16yo. They are priced at $199.99 each.

http://www.bevmo.com/productinfo.asp?sku=00000004871&N=168+40+4294961920&Nr=Store%3A99&area=spirits

The picture is of a gold wax bottle, but these are definitely from the final foil capsule bottling.

[barturtle]

I am not suprised it sold.

However, I am suprised there was just one bid.

I wonder what his maximum was.

As far as an investment goes it could be a good one.

At 15% per year compounded for five years comes to $1005.66.

It could sell for that in 2012, if not sooner.

But then again, if Wall Street could repeat days like today then I'd drink that thousand dollar bottle of bourbon.

Okay help me out:

The original Shelf price was IIRC $85 in 1996

it just sold for $500

What's the annual return on investment there?is 44% right?

500-85=415 profit

415/11=$38 per year

38/85=44.7% annual return on investment

it's been a while since business math (9th grade) is that even close to right?

[OscarV]

Wow $85.00 eleven years ago, I thought I was a bit silly when I bought mine for $120.00 two and a half years ago.

$500.00 minus $85.00 = $415.00

$415.00 divided by $85.00 = 4.8823529%

Which is an annual .4438502% for eleven years.

So .15% for the next five years is not out of the realm of possibility.

[gblick]

BevMo is down to its last two bottles of A.H. Hirsch 16yo. They are priced at $199.99 each.

That's crazy, Spec's has loads of it here for $74-80!

[OscarV]

That's crazy, Spec's has loads of it here for $74-80!

[QUOTE][/QUOTE]

$149.99 here in the Mitten.

[bluesbassdad]

Tim,

Thanks to the miracle of compounding, where each period's interest amount earns interest during each remaining period, the annual rate is less than one would think.

According to this calculator the rate is 17.48%.

For very short durations and low growth rates your method will give an approximate answer. Not so in this case.

Yours truly,

Dave Morefield

[barturtle]

Tim,

Thanks to the miracle of compounding, where each period's interest amount earns interest during each remaining period, the annual rate is less than one would think.

According to this calculator the rate is 17.48%.

For very short durations and low growth rates your method will give an approximate answer. Not so in this case.

Yours truly,

Dave Morefield

Ah, the difference between simple and compound interest.

Either way, I'm thinking it beat the stock market.

[Gillman]

The late Samuel Bronfman, who greatly expanded the Seagram's business after he bought it with his family, and whom Chuck has referred to in another connection, once said that compound interest was one of man's greatest inventions. Hyperbole to be sure, but from his standpoint, I can see what he meant and I suppose he would have had the assent of other numerically-oriented business titans such as John D. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan. These figures were notable not just for business organisation, innovation or salesmanship but for very great ability in understanding the balance sheet, costing, profitability (or lack thereof), finance, acquisitions and like matters.

Gary

[cowdery]

Exactly. The baseline for any comparison of financial opportunities is the return on a bank CD invested for the same period, with interest compounding.

[Night Gallery]

A bottle of the 19 yo just sold on ebay for $645.00. Is this a record price for a bottle of bourbon?

[luv2hunt]

NO....it's not. :bigeyes::bigeyes:

[BourbonJoe]

NO....it's not. :bigeyes::bigeyes:

Gee, what was Dawn?

Joe :usflag:

[OscarV]

A bottle of Very Very Special Old Fitzgerald went for $651.11.

[BourbonJoe]

What does a bottle of Very Special Old Fitzgerald go for?

Joe :usflag:

[mozilla]

In Austin it is $32.99.