Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[bourbonfish]

It's full steam ahead in Florida. Nothing LE stays on the shelf for more than an hour.

[Radsman13]

Agree with poster above, until people reach that point of "I won't pay that much for this" the boom will not stop anytime soon. I enjoy the thrill of the hunt as much as the next guy. I have already reached that point with some things. I also agree that there are way too many good bottles out there that are common place for me to continue hunting the unicorns that are 3-4x MSRP when I do come across them.

[willmohawk5]

lol it's only gonna get worse. The craft beer dorks are spilling into this bourbon "hobby" taking places in line just to get a bottle to either flip or to trade for more beer. So nope, it's not gonna peak ever.

End thread.

[squire]

Bunker down for the Great Dork Invasion.

[The Black Tot]

The bigger it gets, the harder it will fall.

[dmarkle]

I have really good relationships with owners of stores who tell me exactly what they are getting each year. Loyal customers get the good stuff and that's the way it should be. If more store owners were loyal to their customers it would eliminate most of our issues.

It's tough being a significant "loyal customer" for bourbon and still having a liver. I drink about a half serving per night on average I'd say, and that doesn't usually get me on a first-name basis with stores. Then again, I was buying more when things weren't as insane and did get to know some faces at a favorite shop. They used to sell the limiteds to their good customers in the know, then the insanity hit and they marked up everything that was even semi-limited to the moon. I mean, like RHF > $100, ETL to over $70. They then lost me forever.

[Xevious]

The higher the prices get, the further down I shop on the bourbon shelf.

[beasled]

Madness.. https://www.whiskyauctioneer.com/lot/019643/old-fitzgerald-1849

When.. https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-1075.aspx

[Louisiana]

The craft beer dorks are spilling into this bourbon "hobby" taking places in line just to get a bottle to either flip or to trade for more beer.

This is very true. Plenty of craft beer & fine wine guys post this. The trade value of HTF Bourbon is Strong!

[dmarkle]

Madness.. https://www.whiskyauctioneer.com/lot/019643/old-fitzgerald-1849

From the listing: "Once under the ownership of Pappy van Winkle." Sigh

[George]

The higher the prices get, the further down I shop on the bourbon shelf.

Same here.

[Birdie1212]

My thought is the boom will continue as long as we cannot find the bottle we are looking for, and that for most people is not that 'limited release' bottle its the bottle that for them falls into that category. For example trying to find a bottle of Weller 12, Weller 107, ETL around CO can be tough at times, I think the uneven distribution of product across the US also fuels the feeling of a boom....also when I see some of the bunkers of bourbon out there half of me thinks "that's what I want" the other half is "now I know why I can't find XXX".

[Radsman13]

Forgive me if I am being out of place, but I think that some of us (include self here) are the product of circumstance where we have created this "supply limited" and "allocation" phenom bc we are all bunkering what we like and at times will pay the price to procur what we want, driving the price by supply and demand. If I truly enjoy that bottle of BTAC or Weller 12 or whatever, the store owner has no choice but to set the price at what the next willing person is going to pay...until we no longer pay that price and are suffice with what we have or turn to other just as satisfying bottles, the price increase will continue

[chasking]

One thing that's keeping the boom going is the imperfect market in booze. For a number of reasons, the primary market price for many of the whiskeys driving the current mania is artificially depressed. If all the Van Winkles and BTAC listed for the going secondary market prices, they'd probably be easy to find, and one wonders whether so many people would be so excited---I suspect a lot of the enthusiasm comes from people scheming and hustling to get a whiskey that everybody knows has an actual willing buyer/willing seller market value of, say, $400, for its under-$100 list. I can see where producers might not want to raise prices into the stratosphere in response to what may be a fad, but they're giving away money and I have to figure that sooner or later primary market prices are going to approach secondary market prices and the market will stabilize.

As long as people feel that they are getting away with something when they score a unicorn at its list price, the feeding frenzy will continue. If prices go up and the feeding frenzy stops, I wonder if a lot of the people who are now obsessed with bourbon will retain their enthusiasm.

[Jazz Nut]

One thing that's keeping the boom going is the imperfect market in booze. For a number of reasons, the primary market price for many of the whiskeys driving the current mania is artificially depressed. If all the Van Winkles and BTAC listed for the going secondary market prices, they'd probably be easy to find, and one wonders whether so many people would be so excited---I suspect a lot of the enthusiasm comes from people scheming and hustling to get a whiskey that everybody knows has an actual willing buyer/willing seller market value of, say, $400, for its under-$100 list. I can see where producers might not want to raise prices into the stratosphere in response to what may be a fad, but they're giving away money and I have to figure that sooner or later primary market prices are going to approach secondary market prices and the market will stabilize.

As long as people feel that they are getting away with something when they score a unicorn at its list price, the feeding frenzy will continue. If prices go up and the feeding frenzy stops, I wonder if a lot of the people who are now obsessed with bourbon will retain their enthusiasm.

Excellent post. I couldn't agree more. The long term bourbon enthusiasts will obviously stay in the game, but many people always follow what the fad spirit is, and one way to reduce demand is to increase price. At the same rate, many liquor stores selll BTAC, and Pappy for MSRP, and it will hurt to pay more than the going rate for these bourbons. I guess put one's money where one's mouth is. For the enthusiasts' sake, I hope we all are able to find BTAC, Pappy, limiteds, on a more regular basis in the future. Heck, it would be nice to find a Weller 12 every now and again.

[squire]

Yes, good post. We don't see the highest end single malts, cognacs and the like floating around in the black market because their retail price is already at the max. Remove the cash margin and you remove the flippers.

[johnnyflake45]

My friends, there is no secret to the boom, as it is referred to. It is simple economics, "supply & demand". As long as we create a high demand, for particular bottlings, the producers will create a limited supply, of same, and thus, the prices go up, up and away! I've mentioned this before and was kind of shot down, but if we, as a group, choose to boycott, say 6 or 8 different bottlings, it won't be too long before the prices of those bottlings adjust downward and the supply becomes more available.

Just my .02

[amg]

My friends, there is no secret to the boom, as it is referred to. It is simple economics, "supply & demand". As long as we create a high demand, for particular bottlings, the producers will create a limited supply, of same, and thus, the prices go up, up and away! I've mentioned this before and was kind of shot down, but if we, as a group, choose to boycott, say 6 or 8 different bottlings, it won't be too long before the prices of those bottlings adjust downward and the supply becomes more available.

Just my .02

Well, Wild Turkey Diamond is still on the shelves, but that didn't stop them from pricing this year's limited releases even higher.

[B.B. Babington]

Well, Wild Turkey Diamond is still on the shelves, but that didn't stop them from pricing this year's limited releases even higher.

the 2009 WT Tradition stayed around half a decade, wonder if Diamond will make the decade mark?

[johnnyflake45]

Well, Wild Turkey Diamond is still on the shelves, but that didn't stop them from pricing this year's limited releases even higher.

I'd mark that one up to Greed & Stupidity!

[flahute]

My friends, there is no secret to the boom, as it is referred to. It is simple economics, "supply & demand". As long as we create a high demand, for particular bottlings, the producers will create a limited supply, of same, and thus, the prices go up, up and away! I've mentioned this before and was kind of shot down, but if we, as a group, choose to boycott, say 6 or 8 different bottlings, it won't be too long before the prices of those bottlings adjust downward and the supply becomes more available.

Just my .02

We as a group are just a blip in the overall market of bourbon purchasers so I'm not sure how you see this working. It's also not the producers setting the much higher prices (referring here to the LE's that everyone wants) so the producers are not benefiting from the limited supply in the way you are seeing it. If they had more to sell, they would surely get it out there.

[atbat82]

We as a group are just a blip in the overall market of bourbon purchasers so I'm not sure how you see this working. It's also not the producers setting the much higher prices (referring here to the LE's that everyone wants) so the producers are not benefiting from the limited supply in the way you are seeing it. If they had more to sell, they would surely get it out there.

I agree that we are just a blip in the market, but I'm not sure I agree that the producers are pumping it out full steam ahead. I think they benefit from the scarcity and panache. If they didn't, why would BT have tanked the Sazerac 18? Why not not just produce more of it, it would almost certainly still sell out.

I'm new to all this, so I may well be missing something obvious, but I would think producers benefit from a scarcity mentality among consumers. You see the same thing in the cigar world every time a new "limited release" comes out. Some of the cigar manufacturers pretty much only put out limited releases now. People gobble them up without concern to quality or cost.

[flahute]

I agree that we are just a blip in the market, but I'm not sure I agree that the producers are pumping it out full steam ahead. I think they benefit from the scarcity and panache. If they didn't, why would BT have tanked the Sazerac 18? Why not not just produce more of it, it would almost certainly still sell out.

I'm new to all this, so I may well be missing something obvious, but I would think producers benefit from a scarcity mentality among consumers. You see the same thing in the cigar world every time a new "limited release" comes out. Some of the cigar manufacturers pretty much only put out limited releases now. People gobble them up without concern to quality or cost.

BT didn't make the Sazerac 18, they got it via acquisition. They tanked it before the boom really took off and have been rationing it while they age their own stocks to replace it.

[atbat82]

BT didn't make the Sazerac 18, they got it via acquisition. They tanked it before the boom really took off and have been rationing it while they age their own stocks to replace it.

I stand corrected. Happy to learn something new today, thanks!

[johnnyflake45]

We as a group are just a blip in the overall market of bourbon purchasers so I'm not sure how you see this working. It's also not the producers setting the much higher prices (referring here to the LE's that everyone wants) so the producers are not benefiting from the limited supply in the way you are seeing it. If they had more to sell, they would surely get it out there.

I agree that we, as a group, are just a blip in the overall market, but every movement has to start somewhere and we have to pass the message on to our friends. If nothing is ventured, which is usually the case, there certainly will be no gain. I do not agree with your thoughts on limited supply, but that's just me.