Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[MarkWalker]

Last year I got a 4 pack of the BCS beer, it was awesome.  Tried for weeks to find more and never did.  For some reason this year I did not realize the release was on Black Friday, and I stumbled on it when actually looking for a bottle of Blanton's at Specs Downtown here in Houston.  Heck I thought I'd missed the whole release this year.  Anyway, the line was close to 200 people and I said to heck with and walked away.   I was really wanting the Blanton's...

Anyway, there are three Specs stores between the Downtown location and home, so I stopped in the first and asked if they had any BCS for the release, sure thing, two bottle max.  Ok.  Stopped at the other two stores, two bottle max.  Felt pretty good I had gotten 6 bottles of the stuff, a 50% improvement from 2014 and I wasn't really even trying.  Managed to also grab a bottle of Blanton's at one of the stores, day was complete!  

The next week, I decided I'd see if any was left at one of the stores on my way home from work, and if so, just grab a couple more and be done with it. Walked in and they had cases of the stuff, all you want, no limit.   I took home a case.  Today, another week later, there is still a 12 back on the shelf...  

Maybe next year we'll all walk in to our favorite store in Nov and whatever we all want will be plentiful!  Wishful thinking!!!   

ETA: the 2015 BCS is AWESOME.  Get your hands on some if you can, really great beer!  

Edited December 9, 2015 by MarkWalker
added comment

[Sluffo]

10 hours ago, MarkWalker said:

Last year I got a 4 pack of the BCS beer, it was awesome.  Tried for weeks to find more and never did.  For some reason this year I did not realize the release was on Black Friday, and I stumbled on it when actually looking for a bottle of Blanton's at Specs Downtown here in Houston.  Heck I thought I'd missed the whole release this year.  Anyway, the line was close to 200 people and I said to heck with and walked away.   I was really wanting the Blanton's...

Anyway, there are three Specs stores between the Downtown location and home, so I stopped in the first and asked if they had any BCS for the release, sure thing, two bottle max.  Ok.  Stopped at the other two stores, two bottle max.  Felt pretty good I had gotten 6 bottles of the stuff, a 50% improvement from 2014 and I wasn't really even trying.  Managed to also grab a bottle of Blanton's at one of the stores, day was complete!  

The next week, I decided I'd see if any was left at one of the stores on my way home from work, and if so, just grab a couple more and be done with it. Walked in and they had cases of the stuff, all you want, no limit.   I took home a case.  Today, another week later, there is still a 12 back on the shelf...  

Maybe next year we'll all walk in to our favorite store in Nov and whatever we all want will be plentiful!  Wishful thinking!!!   

ETA: the 2015 BCS is AWESOME.  Get your hands on some if you can, really great beer!  

It is very good stuff.  Too bad it sells out in Chicago area so fast.  And they make it here!  Some of the larger liquor stores had palettes of the regular stuff and it was still gone by noon with a 2 bottle limit.  Maybe it's the bourbon aspect of the beer that's making it so hot for the last 4-5 years.  Coincidence?

[Harry in WashDC]

The Business Section of the printed edition of the Washington Post today (Sunday 21 Feb 2016) had a short article on the move from beer to distilled spirits, particularly bourbon, due to, supposedly, the airing of "Mad Men" from 2007 to 2015.  The onlilne posting was on 17 Feb and can be accessed at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/17/less-beer-more-bourbon-how-the-american-buzz-is-evolving/

Based on a Distilled Spirits Council  release and other historical data, domestic distilled spirits (whiskey, brandy, rum, gin, vodka) production in 2015  was up 70%  over 2003 production levels.  And while beer production over the same period is DOWN 4%, the number of breweries is around 4,000 which is an all-time high.  As the article points out, people may be drinking more kinds of beer but less beer in general.  For example, half as much Bud is consumed now than was consumed in 2005.

Finally, the article notes that alcohol-related auto fatalities in 2007 were 13,041 while in 2014 they were 9,967.  The author concluded we may be consuming more distilled spirits but doing so "responsibly".

Why 2007?  That is when "Mad Men" started.

FWIW, I'd have to see tons more data, as well as more info on methodology, before I drew heftier conclusions.  BUT, there is no denying that there has been a shift from beer to distilled spirits and that trend is continuing.  On the plus side, it also appears that producers of distilled spirits are several years into ramping up production to meet anticipated demand.  But we knew that.  Still, I like being reassured.

NOTE:  Wine was flat over that time.  Go figure.  I guess that the small vineyard explosion is slowing as well.

Edited February 21, 2016 by Harry in WashDC
What about wine? see the note.

[squire]

Harry I think the renewed interest in cocktails may be a contributing factor.

[mark fleetwood]

And maybe aging population, former beer drinkers realizing how good bourbon is. ("You mean I drank that catp1$$ Budweiser for 20 years when I can have 100proof whiskey for just a few dollars more?")

[squire]

Cheaper than craft beer in fact, at least with local prices.

[flahute]

On the one hand, people on the Willett facebook page are starting to sit out given the pricing insanity with recent Willett Single Barrels of medium age. On the other hand, people are starting to get sill with SAOS barrel picks in other facebook groups. 

We have a long way to go yet I'm afraid.

[ken_mays]

14 hours ago, flahute said:

On the one hand, people on the Willett facebook page are starting to sit out given the pricing insanity with recent Willett Single Barrels of medium age. On the other hand, people are starting to get sill with SAOS barrel picks in other facebook groups. 

We have a long way to go yet I'm afraid.

Yeah, it seems chasers are just shifting around trying to find the Next Big Thing instead of the general cooling trend that most of us would welcome

[The Black Tot]

The harder this fire burns, the faster it runs out of fuel.

It's certainly gone further and harder than I expected, but every year it gets harder and harder, and the limiteds are fewer, more expensive, and more reachy. There must come a point where people say "this is no fun, and it's not worth it."

Just keep buildin' them rack houses...I'll be there in 10yrs.

I'm very grateful I got serious about putting some stuff away when I did. It's a wonderful feeling to just say "yeah, I don't need to buy bourbon this way, or at these prices".

[Harry in WashDC]

On 2/22/2016, 3:18:16, squire said:

Cheaper than craft beer in fact, at least with local prices.

This is so true.  And, as you alluded a couple posts above, spirits are more versatile.  Try mixing apple sauce with a pilsner and then mixing apple sauce with ANY American whiskey and do a SBS.  Vodka and some gins work just as well.

[The Black Tot]

1 hour ago, Harry in WashDC said:

This is so true.  And, as you alluded a couple posts above, spirits are more versatile.  Try mixing apple sauce with a pilsner and then mixing apple sauce with ANY American whiskey and do a SBS.

...and the Pilsnersauce was born. Or perhaps the Appilsner.

[Birdie1212]

I think part of this is also being driven by the "shelf hogs", the guys that find say 6 bottles of ETL and take the lot, in my area its now starting to happen with any thing that still has an age statement, Elijah Craig, Eagle Rare in particular. I saw a guy at Applejacks here in Denver clear the shelf of Eagle Rare, I think he walked out with 11 or 12 bottles.

Also, and this might not be a popular comment, how many thousands of bottles are sitting in bunkers that will never be drunk in their current owners lifetime....that also fuel the "shortage".

[flahute]

5 hours ago, Birdie1212 said:

I think part of this is also being driven by the "shelf hogs", the guys that find say 6 bottles of ETL and take the lot, in my area its now starting to happen with any thing that still has an age statement, Elijah Craig, Eagle Rare in particular. I saw a guy at Applejacks here in Denver clear the shelf of Eagle Rare, I think he walked out with 11 or 12 bottles.

Also, and this might not be a popular comment, how many thousands of bottles are sitting in bunkers that will never be drunk in their current owners lifetime....that also fuel the "shortage".

The majority of the bunkers you see on this board were built long, long before the current boom and did not contribute to the current shortages. 

[Birdie1212]

Thanks for the clarification, I only have been in the bourbon world for the last year of so and therefore not quite as aware that a whole bunch of people started this journey many years ago.

But with that said there is still a % of people that are building bunkers 'now' and I do think that is helping fuel the feeling, real or not, of a shortage.

For the person wanting a bottle of Eagle Rare following the guy that cleared the shelf of Eagle Rare, they may have gone home and thought "wow this shortage is for real" and next time they saw Eagle Rare they in turn cleared the shelf.....

[jvd99]

I think most people on SB plan to drink through their bunker in their lifetime - there's actually an active thread that covers some of the points raised here.   

[flahute]

1 hour ago, Birdie1212 said:

Thanks for the clarification, I only have been in the bourbon world for the last year of so and therefore not quite as aware that a whole bunch of people started this journey many years ago.

But with that said there is still a % of people that are building bunkers 'now' and I do think that is helping fuel the feeling, real or not, of a shortage.

For the person wanting a bottle of Eagle Rare following the guy that cleared the shelf of Eagle Rare, they may have gone home and thought "wow this shortage is for real" and next time they saw Eagle Rare they in turn cleared the shelf.....

The other point to make regarding the current bunkering is that once people get so many built-up in the bunker, they stop buying. I was just at a store tonight and saw 8-9 OWA's on the shelf and didn't even think about buying one because I've been buying OWA's in 2's and 3's every time I saw them the past year and a half or so. I now have something like 12 of them stashed away. A year ago, they would have been snapped up pronto. Now, they stick around for a few days. 

[Paddy]

1 minute ago, flahute said:

The other point to make regarding the current bunkering is that once people get so many built-up in the bunker, they stop buying. I was just at a store tonight and saw 8-9 OWA's on the shelf and didn't even think about buying one because I've been buying OWA's in 2's and 3's every time I saw them the past year and a half or so. I now have something like 12 of them stashed away. A year ago, they would have been snapped up pronto. Now, they stick around for a few days. 

It's still so bad here now that people will actually bid their children out for anything Weller. 

Speaking of, anybody need their yard mowed or driveway shoveled? 

[flahute]

43 minutes ago, Paddy said:

It's still so bad here now that people will actually bid their children out for anything Weller. 

Speaking of, anybody need their yard mowed or driveway shoveled? 

Let me know if you need a mule!

 

[mosugoji64]

4 hours ago, flahute said:

The other point to make regarding the current bunkering is that once people get so many built-up in the bunker, they stop buying. I was just at a store tonight and saw 8-9 OWA's on the shelf and didn't even think about buying one because I've been buying OWA's in 2's and 3's every time I saw them the past year and a half or so. I now have something like 12 of them stashed away. A year ago, they would have been snapped up pronto. Now, they stick around for a few days. 

I  remember the first time I heard the rumor that OWA was going away. I  was grabbing as many as I could but fortunately saw the rumor put to rest before it got crazy. The stash had me set for a while and I've been in your position for some time passing it over. 

[ramblinman]

Stopped by my favorite store the other night, thats in a decent area around Emory University (Decatur Package Store for those of you in the Atlanta area familair with it) and noticed that they now have theft protection caps on pretty much everything north of $40. Kind of a shame. Asked the clerk about it and said the good stuff had started disappearing.

 

I guess the secondary market has gotten hot enough that criminals have started paying attention and acting accordingly. Between that and the "Limit 1 per customer" sign above an empty shelf where WSR used to sit I'm just kind of disgusted with the whole thing :(.

[PaulO]

Recently I've seen Elijah Craig and Fighting Cock lose the age statement.  The one store chain in Greenwood that carries Old Fitz BIB has been out for many weeks I know of.  The clerk says they are waiting, but there appears to be something going on.  

Meanwhile I see tons of NDP brands filling the shelves.  I blame this.  Most of the NDP whiskey is stock that is diverted from regular brands of the major distilleries.  

[jp_stargazer]

44 minutes ago, PaulO said:

Recently I've seen Elijah Craig and Fighting Cock lose the age statement.  The one store chain in Greenwood that carries Old Fitz BIB has been out for many weeks I know of.  The clerk says they are waiting, but there appears to be something going on.  

Meanwhile I see tons of NDP brands filling the shelves.  I blame this.  Most of the NDP whiskey is stock that is diverted from regular brands of the major distilleries.  

I agree that some of the supply for NDP's may be diverted from the house brands of the major distilleries (law of conservation of bourbon?).  I'm not sure I can fault the majors that supply bulk whiskey because they would only sell bulk whiskey if a.) it is not selling under their brand name, b.) it doesn't match the profile of any of their brands, and/or c.) they can make more money selling it to a NDP than under their brand.

Anything good enough to lament not being readily available from the major distilleries SHOULD be good enough to drink from a different looking bottle.  The difficulty is the NDP bottle is usually not clear about the source (e.g. making it difficult to find what any diverted Elijah Craig 12 yr would be bottled as) or similarly priced as the major brand.

Concerning Old Fitz BIB, wouldn't Heaven Hill's own Larceny be more to blame for the Old Fitz BIB be unavailable than any NDP's?  Noah's Mill is the only significant Heaven Hill sourced wheated bourbon I am aware of.  I think Corner Creek is a blend of HH wheated bourbon and a rye bourbon, so there's that one too.

Jason

 

[O'DubhGhaill]

15 hours ago, Birdie1212 said:

Thanks for the clarification, I only have been in the bourbon world for the last year of so and therefore not quite as aware that a whole bunch of people started this journey many years ago.

But with that said there is still a % of people that are building bunkers 'now' and I do think that is helping fuel the feeling, real or not, of a shortage.

For the person wanting a bottle of Eagle Rare following the guy that cleared the shelf of Eagle Rare, they may have gone home and thought "wow this shortage is for real" and next time they saw Eagle Rare they in turn cleared the shelf.....

This has merit, IMHO.  I know of a few persons in this area, who are notorious amongst the few stores here that acquire top shelf, for hoarding, photographing their bunkers, and circulating said photos to the store owners / personnel with invitations to meet them and imbibe some.  I'm talking cases of PPVW and BTAC, etc.  Two store owners in this area have issued instructions to their employees not to notify or sell limited editions to these few people, who show up like clockwork when the limiteds make their appearances locally and attempt to clear the shelf.  The other owners seemed not to care, but as of this past Fall, are at least requiring equal value purchases of something else and limiting one bottle of BTAC or Pappy-related.  I personally could care less as I have for some time now limited my interest to ~$55ish and below bottlings, having enjoyed all the PPVW and  BTAC several years ago when it was plentiful on the shelf and affordable any given day.  I'm also lucky not to be a wheat-fan, so BT products, save for Blanton's and the W.L.12 I used to be able to pick up without thinking about it years ago, just don't interest me at all.

Having lost interest in beer about one year ago, I found the above article quite interesting.  Strange to me, but I simply lost my taste for brew over the past year or so, save for the very rare pub visit in which case I always order a Guinness.  I used to have a beer just before dinner and a whisky while watching TV after the kids are in bed.  Now, I just don't have that beer.

Edited February 25, 2016 by O'DubhGhaill

[jvd99]

9 minutes ago, O'DubhGhaill said:

This has merit, IMHO.  I know if a few persons in this area who are notorious amongst the few stores here that acquire top shelf for hoarding, photographing their bunkers, and sending them to the store personnel with invitations to meet them and imbibe some.  Two store owners have issued instructions to their employees not to notify or sell limited editions to these few people.  The other owners seem to not care.  

If any yahoo bought a bunch of LEs or allocated stuff from my local store and flaunted it around like that - they'd be blacklisted immediately.  The madness is so disruptive that my local store owner has posted a mission statement on his website that at all times he and his employees are attempting to identify flippers so as to ban them from shopping at his store.  With this policy in mind, there isn't one LE that even hits the shelf.  They all reside in the owner's office and are offered for sale at retail to only those he knows are true enthusiasts that actually drink the stuff.  Allocated bottles like OWA or ETL are literally put on the shelf in a trickle at 1 to 2 bottles a time which stretches the supply out and allows more people to take one home.  This takes a lot of effort that goes above and beyond what a liquor store owner should be expected to do, but the results are great because allocated items are somewhat available, and if you are a good and loyal customer, many of the LEs are still available at retail.  These policies further prevent strangers to the store taking valuable product away from regular customers and shelf cleaners are persona non grata.  I'm wish more stores took a more hands on approach like this to thwart the people who are exacerbating the problem

[O'DubhGhaill]

6 minutes ago, jvd99 said:

If any yahoo bought a bunch of LEs or allocated stuff from my local store and flaunted it around like that - they'd be blacklisted immediately.  The madness is so disruptive that my local store owner has posted a mission statement on his website that at all times he and his employees are attempting to identify flippers so as to ban them from shopping at his store.  With this policy in mind, there isn't one LE that even hits the shelf.  They all reside in the owner's office and are offered for sale at retail to only those he knows are true enthusiasts that actually drink the stuff.  Allocated bottles like OWA or ETL are literally put on the shelf in a trickle at 1 to 2 bottles a time which stretches the supply out and allows more people to take one home.  This takes a lot of effort that goes above and beyond what a liquor store owner should be expected to do, but the results are great because allocated items are somewhat available, and if you are a good and loyal customer, many of the LEs are still available at retail.  These policies further prevent strangers to the store taking valuable product away from regular customers and shelf cleaners are persona non grata.  I'm wish more stores took a more hands on approach like this to thwart the people who are exacerbating the problem

Agree completely.  One of the two owners I referenced above actually issued a wanted-type poster with the suspects' photos, so if he's not there, the employees know what to do.  I have to laugh rather than cry knowing it has gotten to this point in bourbon-buying history.