Our ongoing observations about whether the boom has peaked

[nd2005]

The fall limited release season shit show is a hard time to gauge the peak.

I don't think the lower shelf increases can hold for long. Last to rise, first to fall sort of thing.

The intensity of last fall was off-putting for a lot of older hands who were around when the limiteds were easy, but the new young bucks had a lot of fun storming it.

The YBs aren't tired of the battle, yet. But the producers have put the brakes on with across the board price increases, and REALLY high prices for the new limiteds.

A lot of the heavy hitters and heavy flippers I see on facebook are in their mid-20s with girlfriends and recent wives in their photos.

I stick with my statement that wives are not going to tolerate a multi-thousand dollar annual bourbon budget for very much longer. This bubble will be burst by whip.

This season will be completely wild, but I predict that this time there will be a significant increase in unpleasant domestic aftermath about it, after which we will see what happens in 2016.

Children and responsibilities are coming for the young buck limited-chasers who presently clear the shelves.

I'm kind of surprised it's still going this strong, but a flame that burns twice as bright burns only half as long, and this boom is burning brighter and brighter with each passing month.

[The Black Tot]

This has basically been the prediction every year for the last 3-4 years. It's wishful thinking.

[moxjr]

The boom is just starting. Brace yourselves.

[The Black Tot]

I categorically dare it to get any worse.

I dare it.

[nd2005]

I categorically dare it to get any worse.

I dare it.

Lol. Be careful what you wish for

[flahute]

The recent mania over Kentucky Owl release 2 has me thinking we have a ways to go still. Just ridiculous. People still have an insatiable thirst for anything with a whiff of "limited" about it. Is it a wheater? Triple the the thirst level. If this is what's happening with the low quality limiteds, the actual high quality limiteds are going to remain under just as much pressure as before.

[Paddy]

I'm just hopeful that the KY Owl's, Orphan's, IWH 15's, B & B, et all's somehow start to water the playing field down a little bit.

[The Black Tot]

I almost bought a KY Owl. I wanted to display it on a shelf as a monument/discussion piece about peak bourbon a decade from now.

Dilution seems definitely to be where we're at. QPR seems to be crashing pretty shamelessly this last year. Now we're trying on limiteds in the over $200 price range, blends of basic bourbons are being sold for $80 in carved wooden boxes, the Orphans are getting more and more reachy...Wild Turkey is trying it on at $150+ for 86 proof...there's a $200 Jim Beam... It's getting to the point that even if they're good (and we have it on reliable authority around here that some of them really are)...how much does it really matter?

What is retail going to do with BTAC/VW products this year? Last year my normally rock-solid store unexpectedly charged my gf 2x retail for BTAC bottles. Will it be 3 this year?

There is a grounding point we don't discuss much, but bourbon had a value advantage for many years vs other brown liquids. If US whiskey wants to try and blow past the price points of other (suddenly viable) world spirit alternatives, that could not only be a ceiling point for them, but it could also result in a lot of defection by enthusiasts to a wave of buying/collecting another category altogether. We talk about the US whiskey boom going up and down - but it can just as easily (and viciously) go sideways, and the supply is there for those who are sick and tired of frequently coming up empty-handed looking at cleared shelves in the bourbon aisle.

[squire]

... It's getting to the point that even if they're good (and we have it on reliable authority around here that some of them really are)...how much does it really matter? . . . .

Not one damn bit around my house.

[dboland]

I went to a store last Friday and wish I had taken a picture because the normal 2-3 shelves of bourbons and ryes was packed with NDP stuff, as much or more than the bottles from the big boys. I asked the owner where the WT, BT, and FR stuff was and he said they haven't been getting it as consistently as the other stuff, but this guy also tried to sell me a Pappy 15 for $900 six months ago. He was doing barrels of Belle Meade and some other stuff I had never heard of before.

The only reason I mention this is that I was shocked at the crap on the shelves a few short months after having wonderful store picks of Knob Creek and FRSB. Of course, none of the NDPs are below $35/750. I won't be shopping there anymore and was floored that the owner would destroy his store and reputation for such short-term gains.

Maybe not a sign of the peak however it seems pretty irrational to me for a store owner to not stock WT 101 in place of something for $60 that probably didn't even exist a year ago.

[squire]

Profit my man, profit. Those NDPs drawing from the MGP well can keep those shelves stocked as long as the customers will pay.

[dboland]

Definitely. He loses long-term profit from me, however, when monkeying around with inventory and prices causes me to go to a different store.

[The Black Tot]

Store owners are taking a real risk of locking in some multi-decade shelf turds when the production increases the majors started making several years back start catching up and the good, excellent QPR stuff comes flooding back.

OWA is already starting to gingerly sneak its way back onto the shelves nationwide.

[flahute]

Profit my man, profit. Those NDPs drawing from the MGP well can keep those shelves stocked as long as the customers will pay.

If this becomes the norm, I will be content to draw from the well that is my bunker.

[Spade]

There is a grounding point we don't discuss much, but bourbon had a value advantage for many years vs other brown liquids. If US whiskey wants to try and blow past the price points of other (suddenly viable) world spirit alternatives, that could not only be a ceiling point for them, but it could also result in a lot of defection by enthusiasts to a wave of buying/collecting another category altogether. We talk about the US whiskey boom going up and down - but it can just as easily (and viciously) go sideways, and the supply is there for those who are sick and tired of frequently coming up empty-handed looking at cleared shelves in the bourbon aisle.

I've definitely been spending less on American whiskey and more on scotch and the occasional Armagnac lately. There's nothing out there that I've found that compares to bourbon or rye in the $15-$40 range, so American whiskey is still what I drink the most — but I've definitely been rekindling my interest in other spirits lately. If I'm going to spend $75 or more on a bottle, I want some assurance that it's going to be really good... and even better it'd be nice if I could get another bottle if I do end up liking it. And right now, bourbon can't offer that.

[Lepisto]

This booms seems similar to the baseball card trading in the late 80s early 90s, at least that's when I was getting into it. When I first started, it was mostly Topps, with some Fleer, Donruss, and Score. The best cards were worth a couple of bucks, but most were worth 50 cents, but the brands had been around for a long time. Then Upper Deck came out with nicer cards, flashier packaging, and a higher price. Then older brands were being resurrected and given a face lift, touting their history, like Leaf, Bowman, etc. Then the super premium cards started coming out. $5 a pack, and they only had the best players in there, so there were no common cards. People would pay the money, because if they hit a good card, it would pay for the pack and bring profits. Companies started flooding the market, because they were basically printing money. This attracted older guys with more money to dispose of. Young kids were largely left out of the mix, because they couldn't afford it or would save up money to buy one prestigious card. I'm not really sure when the baseball card market imploded, as I discovered girls after a couple of years and got out of it. I was talking to my brother who still dabbles in card and memorabilia collecting and he said that all of those premium cards aren't worth the paper they are printed on. The only cards worth anything are cards older than the mid 80's.

Anyway, I thought this seemed like something similar with bourbon. People are hoarding the premium bottles and manufacturers are bringing in new premium bottles every week. Some are getting flipped, and some are seen as investments. The true lovers are looking at it in disgust and hunkering down with the old standbys shaking their heads, waiting for the market to correct itself. Not sure if the bourbon will follow a similar path as baseball cards, but time will tell.

[BigBoldBully]

Lepisto, as a former kid who lost his shirt buying baseball cards mostly from 86-88, I shudder to think someday my bunkered spirits will not be worth the water they were distilled with. Of course, once I drink them that is probably unavoidable anyhow.

[fozzy71]

Lepisto, as a former kid who lost his shirt buying baseball cards mostly from 86-88, I shudder to think someday my bunkered spirits will not be worth the water they were distilled with. Of course, once I drink them that is probably unavoidable anyhow.

lol as a comics collector from the 90's I feel your pain

[DonutsNBourbon]

oh man... I did the baseball cards and the comics... now bourbon. well, at least I can drink the bourbon!

so... should I stop hanging on to my baseball cards and comics?

[fozzy71]

lol, i sold what I could of the comics a decade ago. I still have a box full and praying........ and I agree with the bourbon, just drink it and who cares about later.

[willmohawk5]

The baseball card comparison isn't really a good one. You are talking about pieces of paper vs. bottles of a consumable product. Baseball card values were tied to a players performance as well. They just oversaturated the market since it was like printing money. And the more cards they printed, the more cards people hoarded and took care of. So after a couple years there was no shortage of cards, they weren't consumed, thrown away, destroyed etc like cards of the 50's and 60's.

Whiskey will be consumed so each year there is less and less of it. While demand for it goes up. And it takes time to make enough juice and age it to meet that demand. It appears that they are filling more and more barrels each year so I think the supply will slowly catch up. I just don't think prices will go down either. With todays social media there's too much hype and new money flooding this market that some people are willing to overpay for anything these days.

[DonutsNBourbon]

lol, i sold what I could of the comics a decade ago. I still have a box full and praying........ and I agree with the bourbon, just drink it and who cares about later.

I actually forgot I had them until my mom told me to get that crap out of her basement a few years ago!

and really, I'm only collecting Bourbon to drink it later, so I don't care if it drops in value or whatever, as long as it still tastes good after spending years in my basement.

[nd2005]

This booms seems similar to the baseball card trading in the late 80s early 90s, at least that's when I was getting into it.

And if you go by age, it's probably the same kids!

[The Black Tot]

Guilty of the late 80's comic collecting.

I agree not the same kind of thing given that the bourbon will always retain the intrinsic value of drinking it.

However, what is acceptable as the price of getting drunk on good whiskey has changed, and WILL change again.

Maybe I should try smoking a baseball card...

[The Black Tot]

If I'm going to spend $75 or more on a bottle, I want some assurance that it's going to be really good... and even better it'd be nice if I could get another bottle if I do end up liking it. And right now, bourbon can't offer that.

This was well-phrased. It's true, bourbon is a moving target these days. By the time you learn you love a special release, you're out of the running for getting any more of it. It's also true that this isn't so much the case with other spirits.